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## Highlight:
The high performance expectations of the financial report and the lack of "willingness to protect the market" by the management team have suppressed the short-term confidence of the Pinduoduo bulls. However, Duan Yongping chose an advanced strategy of bottom fishing, "starting to put selling points".
Buffett and Duan Yongping are both proficient in using option strategies. The classic case of the former is his investment in Coca-Cola, while the latter has repeatedly practiced similar strategies in the technology sector, and both bottom fishing Pinduoduo and Alibaba have achieved considerable profits.
Options can express more diverse investment perspectives. Reasonable use of option tools not only reduces risk levels, but also provides a source of high annualized returns.
RockFlow's "Dip Sniper" product, based on the Sell Put strategy, helps users obtain Fixed Income in market fluctuations while preparing for low-priced positions.



## Introduction

On Monday, Pinduoduo fell nearly 30% overnight, the largest drop since its IPO, as lower-than-expected performance and warnings from company executives dented market confidence.

Goldman Sachs believes that the main reasons for this big drop are due to three aspects.

Before the financial report was released, the market had high expectations. Due to strong expected performance, Pinduoduo's stock price has risen by about 20% since the end of July, while the KWEB (China Overseas Internet ETF) index has fallen by 4% during the same period.

Pinduoduo's online marketing service growth has shown signs of normalization for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 29%, which is lower than expected. However, to be fair, Pinduoduo's performance is still good and significantly better than Alibaba and Kuaishou e-commerce.

The management's comments scared the market. Pinduoduo's management pointed out in the conference call that due to intensified competition and possible decline in long-term profitability to promote high-quality development, it is expected that future revenue growth will slow down and sacrifice short-term profits. As the overall investment is still in the stage, there will be no buybacks or dividends in the next few years.

With high expectations falling short and management showing no "willingness to protect the market", the short-term confidence of Pinduoduo's bulls was suppressed, and the stock price almost fell below the center of the earth.

Under such an astonishing decline, is it suitable for bottom fishing now? How to bottom fishing?

 Duan Yongping released a statement that night, stating that although he did not fully understand Pinduoduo's business model, he was bottom fishing and "starting to put selling points".



## Buffett and Duan Yongping love the steady bottom fishing strategy


In fact, this is not Duan Yongping's first time bottom fishing Pinduoduo.

At the end of 2021, Pinduoduo's quarterly report collapsed, and the stock price was nearly halved within a month. Duan Yongping posted a statement saying, "Although I still don't understand their business model, I feel that their support for agricultural products is still very meaningful. I am ready to invest in Pinduoduo again." The specific operation is exactly the same as this time-selling put. At that time, he also attached 7,000 settlement orders for Pinduoduo put options, with a potential transaction amount of about 35 million US dollars.

More than a month later, Pinduoduo's stock price has risen by more than 20% compared to Duan Yongping's bottom fishing. He posted again, "Pinduoduo is a typical example of earning but not earning much."

This bottom fishing, Duan Yongping is obviously continuing to implement the previous investment logic. He is expressing more of an attitude: not fully understanding, but optimistic.

The so-called "selling point put" actually refers to selling put options, that is, the counterparty pays a certain option fee to Duan Yongping, so as to have the right to sell Pinduoduo stocks in the US stock market to Duan Yongping at the agreed price on the agreed date. Simply put, this means that the target is moderately optimistic about the rise.

Duan Yongping's consistent investment principle is Value Investment. Value Investment favors companies and bottom fishing at low prices, which is his strategy. This time, Pinduoduo is no exception.
 
Before bottom fishing Pinduoduo, Duan Yongping also made a move on Tencent and Alibaba. Duan Yongping's first investment in Tencent was in 2018, with the logic behind it being "a long slope, thick snow". This is also Buffett's famous saying, "Life is like a snowball, the most important thing is to discover wet snow and a long mountain slope".

As the head of the Value Investment faction, Buffett's most famous case for the application of options is undoubtedly Coca-Cola.

On April 2, 1993, Marlboro cigarettes announced a 20% price cut. After the announcement, stock prices, including Coca-Cola, fell one after another, but Buffett believed it was a good stock based on his research and understanding of Coca-Cola.

He thought he could buy 3 million shares of Coca-Cola at about $35 per share and was confident that the price would not fall below that level. So he decided to sell the put option on Coca-Cola.

In April 1993, Buffett sold a put option on 3 million shares of Coca-Cola stock for $1.50 each. The expiration date of the option was December 17, 1993. At Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting, Buffett stated that he was prepared to increase 2 million shares in a similar manner.

Buffett's only risk in selling the put option this time is that if Coca-Cola's stock price falls below $33.5 in December, he must buy Coca-Cola stock at $35 per share, but he is not worried because he originally wanted to buy Coca-Cola stock at $35.

As a result, by the end of 1993, with Coca-Cola's stock still above $35, the put buyer abandoned the contract, and Buffett made a net profit of $7.50 million.

Buffett's use of option strategies is quite proficient. He understands that selling put options can steadily harvest THETA, and based on his research and understanding of Coca-Cola, even call-overs after expiration are very cost-effective. It can be seen that Duan Yongping obviously recognizes and has practiced similar investment strategies in the technology stock field many times.


## Why is it more cost-effective to be an option seller than to buy stocks directly?


Call and Put are respectively bullish and put options in American options. Buying and selling represent different market views.

Selling put options means two possibilities:

If the expiration stock price is higher than the exercise price, the buyer gives up the call-over and the seller earns a net profit from the premium. If it is a small increase and the increase cannot cover the premium, then the ROI rate outperforms buying the stock. If there is a large increase, only the premium can be obtained, and higher returns cannot be obtained, which is equivalent to missing out.

If the expiration stock price is lower than the exercise price, the buyer will call over, and the seller's specific profit and loss depends on the difference between the premium and the price difference. If there is still a surplus after deducting the decline in the premium, the seller will still make a profit; if the decline swallows up the premium, the seller will lose money, but the loss is still relative to the market price of the stock, and the actual purchase of the corresponding stock is still the same.

Therefore, selling put will only result in a big loss when there is a big drop. As long as the stock price does not fall below the range covered by the premium, the seller will never lose money. 

Buffett and Duan Yongping, who are well-versed in investment, have repeatedly verified a truth with their decades of investment experience: options have become a very useful tool in Value Investment due to their many advantages.
 
First of all, Value Investment is a long-term investment based on the fundamentals of a company. Based on a long-term optimistic view of its future, profits are made through long-term holding and short-term volatility selling. Unless held for a long time and not sold, risks are inevitably associated with volatility. With the assistance of option tools, risks can be effectively reduced.
 
Secondly, options can express more diverse views. Duan Yongping firmly buys Apple in the US stock market, and has repeatedly used the strategy of selling put to express his bullish views on Alibaba and Pinduoduo, rather than directly buying a large amount of stocks.
 
The reason why Duan Yongping did not directly buy Pinduoduo's stock this time may be because he believed that there was not much room for the stock price to rise, but it has basically bottomed out. Therefore, he sold the put, earned the premium when it rose, and built a position at a low price when it fell. Among them, the application of option tools not only reduces the risk level, but also provides a source of high annualized returns.


## A more concise and convenient innovative option financial product - RockFlow [Dip Sniper](https://mobile.rockflow.ai/en/docs/options/better-buy)

"Dip Sniper" is an innovative options wealth management product launched by RockFlow. It is based on the Sell Put strategy to help users obtain Fixed Income in market fluctuations and prepare for low-priced positions.

Users can choose a suitable exercise price and expiration date for the "Dip Sniper" product, and receive a premium immediately after the subscription is completed. At the close of the expiration date, if the stock price falls below the exercise price, investors will buy stocks at the exercise price; if the Closing Price does not reach the exercise price, there is no need to buy stocks. Since 100% of the corresponding stock's cash is frozen in the user's account during the subscription, the "Dip Sniper" product will not have any position squaring risk.

Taking Pinduoduo as an example before the opening on Tuesday, when the stock price was 100 dollars, if you buy the "Dip Sniper" product that expires this Friday and has an exercise price of 90 dollars, you can immediately receive a premium of 30% annualized return. This money is Fixed Income, and regardless of how the stock price changes, the premium has already been received.

By the close of this Friday, if the Pinduoduo Closing Price does not fall below 90 dollars, the user's funds will be unfrozen and the transaction will be completed. If it falls below 90 dollars, the user will buy Pinduoduo stock at a price of 90 dollars and complete a low-priced position. The actual purchase price is lower than 90 dollars because they received an annualized premium of 30% at the beginning.

In contrast, ordinary Sell Put requires users to have a certain understanding of option trading, including exercise price, margin requirements, option contracts, etc. RockFlow's "Dip Sniper" product simplifies the trading process, simplifying complex option trading into simple and easy-to-understand financial products. You only need to choose the exercise price and expiration date (usually this Friday or next Friday) to efficiently complete option trading, express your investment ideas, and greatly reduce the participation threshold.

In summary, there are two advantages to Dip Sniper: firstly, it allows users to lock in opportunities to build positions at low prices during market fluctuations, and at the same time, they can obtain a Fixed Income regardless of how the market changes; secondly, it is an ideal choice to achieve stable returns during the financial reporting season and prepare for low-price positions.



Pinduoduo fell nearly 30%, and Duan Yongping chose an advanced strategy for bottom fishing, "starting to sell put".

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## Highlight:

1）With strong performance (GMV 29.50 billion yuan, net profit margin of 20.27%, 6440 stores), Chagee went public in the United States, trying to become a pioneer in the internationalization of Chinese tea beverage brands through the "cultural going global" strategy and localized production.

2）MIXUE successfully occupied the Non-Major market with the model of "supply chain is hegemony" (97% of revenue comes from the supply chain, and 12-hour cold chain covers 90% of the country), proving that the low-price strategy is backed by extreme supply chain management capabilities.

3）Starbucks China is trapped in the dilemma of "defending the third space" (market share drops by 8%), facing the dual challenges of losing pricing power and cultural generation gap, reflecting that Chinese tea beverage brands are restructuring the industry and have the voice over.



The IPO of Chagee is imminent, with the stock code "CHA". As a leader in new tea drinks, it has shown remarkable growth data: GMV increased by 173% YoY to 29.50 billion yuan in 2024, Net Profit rate of 20.27% led the industry, and the number of stores increased nearly 6 times to 6440 within two years.

Behind this impressive data, there are three important insights from Chagee:

The perfect balance between scale and standardization
Chagee successfully solved the biggest pain point in the tea industry: how to maintain quality during rapid expansion. The ultra-low store closure rate of 1.5% proves the success of its standardized operation system, breaking the industry curse of "scale and quality cannot be achieved at the same time".

Urban strategic transformation of new tea drinks
While competitors are still focusing on the Non-Major market, Chagee has already established more than 3,000 stores in first- and second-tier cities. This "reverse penetration" strategy not only enhances the brand tone, but also lays the foundation for future internationalization.

Globalization touchstone for Chinese consumer brands
Against the backdrop of tense Sino-US relations and stricter regulation, the choice of Chagee to go public in the US is of symbolic significance. Its concept of "cultural going global" and localized production strategy may provide a new paradigm for the internationalization of Chinese consumer brands.

The IPO of Chagee is not only a financing activity, but also an important milestone for Chinese consumer brands to go global. Its success or failure will affect the internationalization process of the entire Chinese tea beverage industry and provide important reference for the overseas expansion of other Chinese consumer brands.

In this article, the RockFlow investment research team will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the grand cultural capital export experiment of Chagee. And compare MIXUE and Starbucks China, two important players in the freshly made beverage market, to take you through the quietly changing situation of China's tea beverage consumption market.



## Overlord Exiting Yunnan: Capital Narrative Experiment of Cultural Capital Globalization


From the tea aroma of Kunming Old Street to the Trading Desk on Wall Street, Chagee completed a commercial civilization leap in 7 years.

This tea brand, which started in Yunnan, is emerging in the global market at an astonishing speed. While MIXUE is building fortresses with 5 yuan lemonade in rural markets, Chagee is trying to compile Chinese tea culture into a universal code for global Capital Markets.

Founded by Zhang Junjie in 2017, Chagee opened its first store in Yunnan Province and has since rapidly expanded in China and even overseas. The tea brand had sales of 29.50 billion yuan (4.03 billion USD) last year. Behind the lightning layout of 6,440 stores in 2024 is its ambition to compile "Chinese tea culture" into the language of global capital.

![1.png](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/1_2dc6672aa1.png)

It plans to serve customers in 100 countries, selling 15 billion cups a year and aggressively expanding its global presence. In recent years, it has expanded into South East Asia, entering MY, Singapore and Thailand.

Unlike MIXUE's supply chain monster model, Chagee is considered the "Starbucks of the tea industry", embodying the essence of Starbucks from Visual Identity to store layout, product strategy, and brand story. Essentially, they are Starbucks' Eastern counterparts.

Currently, the GMV of Chagee has surpassed Starbucks China (3 billion USD), while the profit margin is equivalent to Starbucks' 16%. Such impressive performance is likely to enhance its confidence in going public in the United States.

However, the expansion of Chagee is not without challenges. With more than 3,000 stores in first- and second-tier cities, how to maintain a low store closure rate (currently 1.5%) without affecting sales has become its main problem.

The IPO of Chagee is not only an action of Capital Markets, but also an attempt to export culture. By listing on NASDAQ, Chagee hopes to promote Chinese tea culture globally. However, in the face of fierce competition from competitors such as MIXUE, it remains to be seen whether Chagee can continue to maintain its leading position in the international market.

In addition, the stock code "CHA" of Chagee indicates that their ambition is not limited to selling milk tea, but also extends to promoting Chinese tea culture globally. Pearl milk tea itself may not be special, but Chinese tea cultural heritage is an intangible and scarce asset that gives brand power.

If Chinese tea culture is successfully spread to all parts of the world through the pearl milk tea brand, will Chinese tea brands also enjoy a high reputation globally? After all, China produces half of the world's tea, but there is still no truly influential Chinese tea brand.



## MIXUE: The Non-Major Market Dialectics of Supply Chain Empires


MIXUE, a tea brand that started in Zhengzhou, Henan, is known for its strong supply chain management capabilities and extreme cost control. Since its establishment in 1997, MIXUE has become one of the largest catering chain enterprises in the world, with more than 45,000 stores.

In the fireworks of the urban village in Zhengzhou, brothers Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu proved the truth of "supply chain is hegemony" in 27 years. When the outside world was amazed by the grassroots counterattack of 1 yuan ice cream, what really deserves to be included in business school textbooks are two core data.

97% of revenue comes from the supply chain
12-Hour cold chain direct access to stores, covering 90% of China's territory 

The Zhang brothers realized the importance of the supply chain in the catering industry early on. Since 2007, MIXUE has been establishing raw material factories in the suburbs of Zhengzhou, although initially these factories only processed ice cream powder and waffle cones. In 2012, they expanded their scale and built a larger core raw material production factory - not only producing ice cream, but also producing beverage products. Later, they even began to grow their own fruits, striving to have full control from agricultural planting to internal processing.

![2.jpeg](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/2_dc95ec6aaf.jpeg)

In addition, since 2014, MIXUE has continuously invested in logistics operations to ensure that franchisees receive materials with the lowest cost and shortest delay. As of 2023, MIXUE has established 26 main warehouses nationwide, serving stores covering 31 provinces across the country, and has achieved over 90% of domestic store cold chain logistics coverage.

MIXUE is trying to replicate its success in the global market and has established localization warehousing systems in four countries in South East Asia, including seven self-operated warehouses, to support its globalization strategy.

Interestingly, with such a strong supply chain, MIXUE does not have high requirements for franchisees. It mainly earns revenue by providing raw materials and equipment (accounting for 97%) to franchisees, rather than charging high franchise fees or sharing.

This "heavy back-end, light front-end" model allows MIXUE to maximize the advantages of vertical integration of the back-end, while rapidly expanding its product line at low prices and establishing a sustained win-win relationship with franchisees.

Due to the fact that MIXUE's products are generally much cheaper than their peers, with most products priced at only 5 to 8 yuan, almost half of their competitors' congeneric products, many people believe that their success is due to their low-price strategy. In fact, this is only superficial. Their real secret lies in extreme supply chain management, which ensures profitability and enables large-scale replication at ultra-low prices.

This empire, which rose from rural areas in Henan, essentially used the "countryside surrounding the city" of the township market to complete the supply chain counterattack against Western fast-moving consumer goods giants. Although many people regard MIXUE as a company similar to Pinduoduo due to its low-price image, in fact, it is more like Coca-Cola or McDonald's. It maintains a cost-leading position through a strong Competitive Edge (self-controlled supply chain and scale advantage), which competitors cannot replicate.

Based on the GMV in 2023, MIXUE is the largest freshly made beverage company in China and the fourth largest in the world. The company's market share in China is about 11.3% and its global market share is about 2.2%.

From 2021 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate of MIXUE's revenue reached 40.05%. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the revenue increased by 21.1% YoY, reaching 18.70 billion yuan. This growth data is better than competitors such as Chabaidao and Guming. However, compared with 2021-2023, the revenue growth in 2024 has slowed down.

In addition, MIXUE's low-price strategy may also face challenges. In terms of Product Research & Development, MIXUE's investment is much lower than that of its competitors, which may lead to its lack of product innovation. In addition, although it has achieved certain success in the South East Asia market, further exploration is needed on how to replicate this model in a wider international market. Especially in supply chain management and product localization, MIXUE needs more investment and innovation.



## Starbucks China: The Darkest Moment of the Third Space Defense War


![3.png](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/3_7f250953cb.png)

Everything stems from lost pricing power and shattered elite narratives.

Starbucks China is facing unprecedented challenges. With the rise of local brands, Starbucks' market share has been declining year by year. By 2024, its market share has declined by 8%, facing fierce market competition and loss of pricing power.

Starbucks' dilemma is that its traditional brand positioning and pricing strategy can no longer meet the needs of the new generation of consumers. With the rise of Generation Z consumers, Starbucks needs to re-examine its brand perception and product strategy to cope with the constantly changing market environment.

In addition, Starbucks also faces challenges in supply chain management and product localization. With the continuous innovation of local brands in these areas, Starbucks needs to accelerate its pace to maintain its market competitiveness.

Starbucks is actively promoting digital transformation to meet market challenges. However, the implementation of the digital strategy is not smooth. Although the proportion of Mini Program orders has increased, the Operational Efficiency of stores is decreasing.

Starbucks' management team in China also faces challenges. Although the new CEO has rich experience in digitalization and consulting, he lacks experience in operating brick and mortar stores, which may limit its strategic implementation in the Chinese market.

Starbucks needs to find a balance between digital transformation and brick and mortar store operations to respond to the rapidly changing market and diverse needs of consumers.

Under the anxious gaze of the Seattle headquarters, Starbucks is experiencing the most dangerous moment in its 25-year history in China. The current digital reform is not so much a strategic upgrade as it is a difficult compromise on the belief in the "third space" - when Tyrant Tea Lady used the "CHA" promotional video to build a cultural utopia, Starbucks was forced to distribute discount coupons between Meituan LIVE.

Starbucks is currently facing two structural dilemmas:

Pricing anchor break: Although Luckin Coffee's price war has eased, the 12-20 yuan price band has been completely divided by local brands
Generation Z prefers to pay a premium for "Chinese tea culture" rather than American elite narrative

If CHA code can really conquer Wall Street with Chinese tea culture, are the traditional tea merchants lurking in the Longjing Village of West Lake and the tea fields of Wuyi Mountain witnessing the historic migration of the category has the voice over? The answer may be hidden in Zhang Junjie's wildness - when 15 billion cups of "Modern Oriental Tea" flow down the global throat every year, who still remembers which continent Starbucks' coffee beans come from?



## The final battle: the reconstruction of the world system of freshly made beverages

In the global freshly made beverage market, Chagee, MIXUE, and Starbucks represent three different forms of commercial civilization. Chagee has achieved global expansion of the brand through cultural capital and extreme efficiency; MIXUE has occupied a dominant market position through strong supply chain management and low-price strategies; while Starbucks is trying to defend its market position in the third space through digital transformation and brand reshaping.

The collision and integration of these three business models will profoundly affect the future pattern of the global freshly made beverage market. With the continuous changes in consumer demand and the intensification of market competition, finding a balance between cultural empowerment, supply chain management, and brand positioning will become the key to corporate success.

Looking to the future, the global freshly made beverage market will present the following possibilities:

Scenario 1: Through its strong cultural output and brand influence, Chagee has further expanded in the international market and become the leader in the global tea beverage market.
Scenario 2: MIXUE replicates its successful model in more international markets through its strong supply chain management and cost control capabilities, further consolidating its market position.
Scenario 3: Starbucks regained its leadership position in China through digital transformation and rebranding.


## Conclusion


When Chagee IPO on NASDAQ, Zhang Junjie may think of the clouds and mist drifting over Yunnan Tea Mountain - which is not only the starting point of business wisdom, but also the origin of civilization output. This war that began with milk tea will eventually evolve into the ultimate competition of different forms of commercial civilization.

The MIXUE logistics vehicle shuttling through the Zhengzhou warehouse and the anxious Starbucks executives at the Seattle headquarters are witnessing the power shift in the world of tea beverage consumer goods.

The IPO of Chagee is imminent, with the stock code "CHA".The RockFlow investment research team will provide you with an in-depth analysis. 

Chagee goes public, MIXUE doubles, is China's new tea drink expected to surpass Starbucks?

2025

Pinduoduo plunges, Duan Yongping bottom fishing in a smart way



## Highlight:
NVIDIA benefits from the overall ecological Network Effect: CUDA, installation foundation, system-level integration, optimization, etc. Each advantage complements and strengthens each other, forming a strong technical barrier.
NVIDIA has achieved unexpected revenue for six consecutive quarters in the past. Surprisingly, despite raising expectations every quarter, it still finds ways to surprise investors with a further significant lead.
In the past, Internet Tech Giants considered growth more when deciding to use certain technologies to build business barriers. However, for AI giants, if they don't keep up, their business foundation may be lost. Today, their decision-making strategy is no longer based on calculating profits and returns, but on fear of absolute losses. Buying NVIDIA chips is essentially buying insurance, with no flexibility.
In the long run, tech giants will continue to seek high-performance GPU sources or internal solutions outside of NVIDIA to break free from their dependence on it. Most likely, these efforts will gradually weaken but cannot replace NVIDIA's dominant position in the AI field.


## Introduction

From time to time, a star company will emerge, attracting attention due to its skyrocketing stock price over the years, but also causing huge controversy due to intense fluctuations. This time it is NVIDIA, a global chip giant that powers AI. Its stock price has soared nearly 50 times in five years and is currently tied with Microsoft and Apple for the top three in global market value.

In a recent interview by a podcast named The Crossing, RockFlow founder Vakee expressed her opinion on whether Nvidia's stock price is in a bubble. She does not believe that Nvidia is in a bubble. A Forward P/E (Forward Price-To-Earnings Ratio) valuation of 40 times is a reasonable range for such a leading company.

The recent pullback of semiconductor stocks, including the overall pullback caused by excessive gains in the US stock market, is in line with normal market changes. In addition, the stronger expectation of interest rate cuts at that time strengthened risk appetite, and some funds flowed from top companies to more aggressive small-cap stocks, which is also a normal sector rotation. Furthermore, the strengthening of US export restrictions and geopolitical tensions a few weeks ago were also inducements for the decline of chip stocks represented by NVIDIA, but these are all normal market reactions.

As for the violent fluctuations in the US stock market in the past one or two weeks, it is mainly due to a combination of factors such as weak US labor market data, the lack of surprises from financial report season giants, the pullback of yen carry trading, and potential conflicts in the Middle East. However, setting aside these external factors, as far as the target of NVIDIA is concerned, we believe that with the long-term optimism towards AI (which is likely to be the biggest opportunity for change in our generation), the absolute leading stock in this industry still does not have a bubble.

NVIDIA's performance in the past year has been impressive: it has a market share of about 90% in the AI chip market, annual revenue exceeding $60 billion, and a Net Profit ratio exceeding 50%. In the past five years, its compound annual revenue growth rate has reached as high as 64%, far ahead of many S & P 500 companies.

Regarding the development history and investment value of this company, RockFlow's research team made a detailed analysis in an article at the beginning of last year - https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6HD8UjKIH6c-BJx3bgERiw. In this article, we hope to answer why the market has not yet paid enough attention to NVIDIA's true Competitive Edge, and why we believe that NVIDIA is not only a great company, but also an investment target with high potential returns.


## What does NVIDIA Competitive Edge rely on besides CUDA?


Investors who are bullish on Nvidia believe that they are betting on its future. After considering Nvidia's higher expected growth, it is not more expensive than other tech giants.

However, there is a problem: the farther the market predicts returns, the more uncertain their predictions become. Microsoft and Apple are mature companies that rely on existing stable customer bases to make money. Nvidia, on the other hand, serves a newer but more promising market, so investors are much more divided about Nvidia's prospects than Microsoft and Apple.

For a long time, NVIDIA has been considered a top producer of gaming graphics cards. With the rise of cryptocurrency mining, GPUs, which serve as the core of graphics cards, have become increasingly popular. NVIDIA's GPUs are highly optimized for "parallel processing" - decomposing computationally difficult problems and assigning them to thousands of processor cores on the GPU at the same time, thus solving problems faster and more efficiently than traditional computing methods.

In addition to designing the most advanced GPUs on the market, NVIDIA has also created a programming model and parallel computing platform - Computing Unified Device Architecture (CUDA), which has become an industry standard and makes it easier for developers to use the features of NVIDIA GPUs.

![nvda CUDA system](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/nvda_CUDA_system_a882ef25c8.JPEG)

But what NVIDIA relies on is not just the CUDA platform that everyone talks about today. The RockFlow research team believes that NVIDIA benefits from the overall ecological Network Effect: CUDA, installation foundation, system-level integration, optimization, etc. It also actively chooses advanced solutions in bandwidth and network to improve computing performance. Each advantage complements and strengthens each other, forming a strong technical barrier.

First, let's look at the installation base. CUDA's decades-long leading advantage means that it benefits from a strong Network Effect - its huge installation base motivates frameworks and developers to target it, thereby attracting more users to adopt it. NVIDIA has a large number of users in fields such as gaming, professional visualization, and data center. The huge user base provides NVIDIA with a continuous source of revenue and product feedback, and this scale effect also enables NVIDIA to continue investing in research and development and maintain technological leadership.

Secondly, it is the system-level integration capability. NVIDIA not only provides GPU hardware, but also provides supporting software stacks. It can be said that from drivers to power builders, and then to optimization libraries, it has already formed a complete ecosystem. This vertical integration enables NVIDIA to optimize at the system level, providing better performance and User Experience.

As for the optimization level, NVIDIA has conducted deep optimization in both hardware and software. In terms of hardware, it continuously improves the GPU architecture to enhance performance and energy efficiency; in terms of software, it fully unleashes the potential of hardware through driver and library optimization. System-level optimization, such as multi-GPU collaborative work and GPU direct memory access technologies, further improves overall performance.

In order to solve bandwidth and network problems, NVIDIA has made many attempts. It has launched a series of technologies to improve the efficiency of data transmission between GPUs, CPUs, and GPUs, the most important of which is NVLink. NVLink directly connects multiple GPUs with high bandwidth, significantly improving AI computing efficiency. This has enabled NVIDIA to maintain a strong position in the fields of autonomous driving and AI computing. In addition, betting on InfiniBand, acquiring Mellanox, and approaching the Ethernet platform through NVIDIA Spectrum-X are also NVIDIA's active layout in the network field.

The RockFlow research team believes that for today's NVIDIA, the huge installation base provides the driving force and data for its continuous optimization of GPU design, while system-level integration and optimization enhance user stickiness and expand the installation base. Coupled with the continuous iteration of many advanced solutions for bandwidth and network issues, the virtuous cycle between them keeps NVIDIA in a leading position in the GPU and accelerated computing fields.

Therefore, even though competitors AMD and Intel have launched similar GPU products with price advantages, NVIDIA still holds an absolute dominant position in the AI chip market.

It is estimated that NVIDIA has firmly occupied more than 90% of the data center GPU market share in the past 7 years. In 2023, its share will reach 98%. The operation of all large data centers and large model training rely on GPUs developed by NVIDIA.

![data center GPU market](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/data_center_GPU_market_235e960e18.jpeg)

In the long run, it may be difficult for NVIDIA to fully maintain its current market share, but with the continuous growth of the data center GPU and other AI chip markets, its Competitive Edge will ensure that it receives the vast majority of orders. NVIDIA is expected to always occupy an important position in this new industrial revolution and maintain benign and healthy long-term growth.


## NVIDIA's performance miracle: expectations are repeatedly raised, but still bring surprises


More than two months ago, NVIDIA announced its Quarter 1 performance, and its stock price soared 10% the next day. Since then, its market value has skyrocketed, once replacing Microsoft as the world's most valuable company.

Last quarter, NVIDIA's specific revenue situation is as follows:

![nvda Q1 FY25 income](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/nvda_Q1_FY_25_income_7c761ec116.jpeg)

Revenue grew 18% quarter-over-quarter to $26 billion (exceeding expectations by $1.50 billion). Data center revenue grew 23% quarter-over-quarter to $22.60 billion, making it the largest and fastest-growing segment.

How exaggerated is its growth rate? It can be seen from the following chart:

![nvda revenue breakdown](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/nvda_revenue_breakdown_1f7a3fafe7.jpeg)

In fact, NVIDIA has achieved higher-than-expected revenue for six consecutive quarters in the past. Surprisingly, despite raising expectations every quarter, it can still find ways to further surprise investors with a significant lead. At the same time, the profit margin of NVIDIA's chip business is also significantly improving.

At the subsequent financial report meeting, Huang Renxun stated:

The next industrial revolution has already begun. Major companies and countries are collaborating with NVIDIA to turn traditional data centers worth trillions of dollars into accelerated computing and establish new types of data centers - AI factories to produce a new commodity - AI.

From the perspective of the two core stages of AI system operation: training - AI learns from large amounts of data, develops intelligence and pattern recognition. Currently, NVIDIA's powerful GPU dominates this stage; inference - AI applies its knowledge to real-world tasks and decisions. Despite facing more intense competition, NVIDIA is making significant progress.

Inference workloads contributed about 40% of NVIDIA's data center revenue in the past year. The current market consensus is that with more and more generative AI applications emerging, inference is expected to become a huge market, bringing considerable investment returns to NVIDIA customers.

Currently, NVIDIA mainly divides customers into three categories.
Cloud as a Service Provider (CSP) contributes nearly half of Data center revenue. All giants (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc.) are customers of NVIDIA.
B-end enterprises have driven strong continuous growth. Taking Tesla as an example, it expanded its training AI cluster to 35,000 H100 GPUs and used it for FSD V12.
C-end companies are also a key vertical class. Taking Meta as an example, its Llama 3 is trained on 24,000 H100 GPU clusters and is expected to use 240,000 GPUs and ten times the computing power of Llama 3 to train the next generation MultiModal Machine Learning Llama 4.

NVIDIA management also pointed out some important directions during the conference call.

Regarding Data Center, they believe that "as generative AI enters more and more 2C internet applications, we expect to see continued growth opportunities, as the scale of inference will expand with the complexity of the model and the increase in the number of users and queries per user, thereby driving more demand for AI computing."

In addition, NVIDIA is very optimistic about the concept of "sovereign AI": "Sovereign AI refers to a country's ability to produce AI using its own infrastructure, data, labor, and commercial networks. The importance of AI has attracted the attention of every country, and major powers will pay more attention to the control of AI technology. We believe that sovereign AI will bring billions of dollars in revenue this year."

Regarding the impact of US export restrictions, the new generation H200, and Blackwell architecture, Huang Renxun has also made corresponding disclosures. The consecutive rise in NVIDIA's stock price in the following weeks fully demonstrates the market's recognition of its views and optimism about the long-term development of the AI wave.


## The biggest challenge is still self-developed by giants


As mentioned earlier, NVIDIA's Network Effect built around the CUDA ecosystem is an excellent example of a commercial company shaping a complete ecosystem. NVIDIA's huge success is not only due to the excellent performance of its chips, but also because it has firmly established itself at the center of the generative AI wave with the entire hardware and software network layout.

However, at the same time, its strategy of bundling basic software with chips has also attracted strong criticism from customers and competitors, and even regulatory agencies are repeatedly launching Anti-Trust investigations due to its high market share.

Currently, NVIDIA is facing competition from AMD and other chip manufacturers (including Qualcomm, Intel, etc.). These companies are essentially chip designers, and they almost all use the same outsourcing company to manufacture chips - TSMC.

AMD and Intel have both launched their own Data Center GPUs, aiming to regain market share from Nvidia's H100/H200. Intel has launched the Gaudi3 AI acceleration chip, while AMD has launched the MI300 series. In 2024, it may be the moment when Nvidia hands over a small part of the market share to AMD for the first time, and Intel is also expected to regain a small part of the market share.

Just look at one statistic to understand why competitors are so determined: According to the latest quarterly financial reports, Microsoft, Google, and Meta's total capital expenditures for the second quarter of 2024 exceeded $40 billion - most of which was spent on AI.

![big tech capital spending](https://web-cdn.rockflow.tech/broker-cms/big_tech_capital_spending_b285970193.jpeg)

With so many giants choosing to invest heavily, is it possible that their decision-makers will one day be forced by internal and external pressures to calculate the ROI of AI costs? They find it not cost-effective, so they start to slow down AI investment?

Our answer is almost impossible. In the past, when Internet Tech Giants decided to use certain technologies and enhance certain capabilities to build business barriers, they considered more about growth - whether it could accelerate business development. But this time, generative AI has a big change. For these giants, if they don't keep up, their companies and business foundations may be lost. Therefore, the arms race of generative AI this time is essentially more like buying "medicine" logic for the procurement of NVIDIA chips. When a technology is the difference between life and death for a company, it will not think too much about the details.

This is not an exaggeration. For example, the search business may have been completely changed by AI. Whether it's Google or Baidu, their decision-making strategy today is no longer based on calculating profits and returns, but on fearing absolute losses. Buying NVIDIA chips is essentially buying insurance, and there is no flexibility at this point.

It is precisely because high-performance chips are so important that while giants spend huge capital expenditures, they are also determined to develop their own or find alternative solutions. Faced with NVIDIA's comprehensive CUDA ecosystem layout, other companies (in fact, almost all competitors) are trying to jointly develop open solutions to break NVIDIA's monopoly on AI software and hardware ecology.

Intel, Google, ARM, Qualcomm, Samsung, and other technology companies are collaborating to develop a new software suite that allows developers' code to run on any machine equipped with any chip. OpenAI is also working hard, releasing an open-source language that allows researchers without CUDA experience to write GPU code, and the open-source PyTorch Foundation incubated by Meta is also making similar attempts.

These companies are also striving to replace NVIDIA's proprietary hardware, including developing new solutions to connect multiple AI chips within and across servers. Companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Meta, AMD, and Broadcom hope to establish new industry standards for this crucial connectivity technology for modern data centers. The conflict between proprietary and open solutions is a bit like Apple and Google Android in the smartphone market, and as we have seen, both closed and open visions are enough to create winners.

In the long run, tech giants will continue to seek high-performance GPU sources or internal solutions outside of NVIDIA to break free from their dependence on NVIDIA. Most likely, these efforts will gradually weaken but cannot replace NVIDIA's dominant position in the AI field.


## Conclusion


In the past few years, NVIDIA's chips have pushed the company's profitability to new heights. The RockFlow research team has long been optimistic about NVIDIA. Previously, RockFlow founder Vakee was asked on the podcast The Crossing, "Are there any signals that NVIDIA may be attacked by competitors?" Her opinion was that there are no such signals.

NVIDIA's advantage today is not just a single product or the hardware advantage of a simple GPU. NVIDIA has built its core competitiveness in a complex ecosystem, so it is particularly difficult to break through. Its advantages include not only the CUDA platform, but also the current user base, the entire basic installation volume, the overall system integration capability, and the ability to continuously optimize. These advantages reinforce each other, so the overall competitive barrier will always be prominent.

Faced with potential problems in the ecosystem, NVIDIA can spare no effort to solve them, whether through acquisitions or investments. This continuous investment is constantly increasing its own barriers in hardware, system integration capabilities, or internet bandwidth issues. This virtuous cycle will make its advantageous position more stable.

Therefore, we believe it can still replicate its previous growth momentum and release greater value in the long run.


Why the market has not yet paid enough attention to NVIDIA's true Competitive Edge？and the reason NVIDIA is an investment target with high potential returns.

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