AES

AES Corporation

$14.63

-0.20%
Jun 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
AES Corporation is a global power generation and utility company operating in 15 countries, with a diverse portfolio exceeding 32 gigawatts that includes renewable energy, natural gas, coal, and oil-fired plants, alongside majority-owned electric utilities. The company positions itself as a significant player in the global energy transition, actively developing and operating renewable power projects while managing legacy thermal assets. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on its strategic pivot towards renewables and the financial implications of this transition, underscored by recent news of a potential buyout offer that valued the company below recent market levels, creating uncertainty and debate around its standalone valuation and strategic direction.

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AES 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $14.63
Average Target $14.63
High Target $16.8245
Low Target $12.435500000000001

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AES Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $19.02 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$19.02

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$12 - $19

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for AES is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating it may be less followed than larger peers, which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment appears mixed, with recent institutional rating actions showing a trend towards neutrality or caution, including downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Barclays to 'Equal-Weight' in early 2026, though Argus Research upgraded to 'Buy' in late 2025. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $13.23 billion, with a wide EPS range from $2.31 to $2.81, highlighting significant uncertainty in earnings projections. The wide target price range implied by the EPS estimates, coupled with the limited number of analysts, signals low consensus conviction and high uncertainty regarding the company's future financial performance, often typical for firms undergoing a significant strategic transition like AES's shift to renewables.

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AES Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced long-term uptrend, having gained 45.97% over the past year, significantly outperforming the SPY's 28.21% gain. However, the stock is currently trading at $14.67, which is approximately 83% of its 52-week high of $17.65, indicating it has retreated from recent peaks and is consolidating below resistance. This positioning near the upper end of its 52-week range (with a low of $9.92) suggests the stock retains strong underlying momentum but may be facing overhead selling pressure after its substantial run. Recent momentum shows a stark divergence from the longer-term trend, with the stock down 15.10% over the last three months and up a modest 1.52% over the past month, underperforming the SPY which gained 10.28% and 6.31% over the same periods, respectively. This significant underperformance, evidenced by relative strength readings of -25.38 (3-month) and -4.79 (1-month), signals a sharp corrective phase or profit-taking after the strong yearly rally, potentially indicating a period of consolidation or trend reversal. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $9.92, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $17.65; a decisive breakout above $17.65 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a break below key support levels could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.957 indicates volatility roughly in line with the broader market, which is notable for a utility stock often seen as defensive, but its recent price action has been more volatile than the beta suggests, especially given the 23.27% maximum drawdown.

Beta

0.95

0.95x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-23.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$10-$18

Price range past year

Annual Return

+29.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAES ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.0%-1.9%
3m+2.9%+8.9%
6m+5.8%+6.4%
1y+29.6%+20.3%
ytd-1.3%+6.4%

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AES Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.10 billion representing a 4.69% year-over-year increase; however, quarterly revenue has shown volatility, declining from $3.35 billion in Q3 2025. The Utilities segment, contributing $2.10 billion in the latest period, is the primary revenue driver, though the lack of detailed segment growth rates limits a granular analysis of business line performance. The company is profitable, reporting net income of $322 million in Q4 2025, but profitability is inconsistent, as seen in a net loss of $105 million in Q2 2025; the trailing twelve-month net margin stands at 7.76%, while the quarterly gross margin was 18.77% in Q4, indicating the capital-intensive nature of the business with significant cost of revenue. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.40 signaling significant financial leverage, though a current ratio of 0.77 points to potential short-term liquidity constraints. Critically, the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.62 billion, heavily impacted by substantial capital expenditures of -$1.54 billion in Q4 alone, indicating the company is in a heavy investment phase, likely funding its renewable energy transition, and is reliant on external financing rather than internally generated cash.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.04%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.18%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-1.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Utilities

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Valuation Analysis: Is AES Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 10.76x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 6.14x, indicating the market anticipates a substantial increase in earnings, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $2.56 for the coming period. Compared to industry averages, AES trades at a discount; for instance, its forward P/E of 6.14x is well below typical utility sector multiples, which often range in the mid-to-high teens, suggesting the market is pricing in higher risk, possibly related to its leveraged balance sheet and negative free cash flow. Historically, the stock's own trailing P/E has fluctuated widely, from negative figures during loss-making quarters to as high as 47.99 in Q1 2025; the current trailing P/E of 10.76x sits below its recent historical average seen in 2024 (often in the teens and 20s), suggesting the stock may be trading at a relative valuation trough, potentially reflecting concerns over its cash burn and leverage rather than its earnings power.

PE

10.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -86x~190x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

13.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple