AWK

American Water Works

$0.00

-0.27%
Jun 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
American Water Works Company, Inc. is the largest investor-owned water and wastewater utility in the United States, providing essential water services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 14 states. The company operates predominantly in regulated markets, which provide stable, predictable returns, and also maintains a nonregulated business serving military bases under long-term contracts. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's disciplined capital deployment and growth strategy, including its proposed acquisition of Essential Utilities to expand its regulated footprint, while recent earnings transcripts highlight its ability to deliver consistent EPS growth and affirm its financial guidance amidst a broader market sell-off in defensive sectors.

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AWK 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $125.07
Average Target $125.07
High Target $143.83049999999997
Low Target $106.30949999999999

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on American Water Works's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

3 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for AWK is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is low for a company of its size and suggests it may be under-followed relative to other large-cap utilities, potentially leading to less efficient price discovery. The available data shows an estimated EPS average of $8.24 for the forward period, with a low estimate of $7.84 and a high of $8.81, but a consensus price target and recommendation are not provided in the data, indicating insufficient information to calculate implied upside or downside or to gauge overall sentiment. The institutional ratings history shows a pattern of neutral to cautious stances, with recent actions from firms like Wells Fargo ('Equal Weight'), B of A Securities ('Neutral'), and Barclays ('Underweight'), suggesting the analyst community is not broadly bullish, likely due to concerns over valuation, interest rates, or execution risk related to its acquisition strategy.

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AWK Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -10.62% and a 3-month decline of -9.58%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 12.0% over the same period. Currently trading at $126.31, the price sits at approximately 21% of its 52-week range ($120.57 to $147.87), indicating it is much closer to its annual lows than highs, which may signal a potential value opportunity but also reflects persistent negative momentum. Recent short-term momentum shows continued pressure, with the stock down 0.83% over the past month, diverging from the S&P 500's slight dip of -0.08%, and the relative strength readings are deeply negative at -33.48 over one year and -21.58 over three months, confirming severe underperformance. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $120.57 and resistance at the 52-week high of $147.87; a decisive break below support could trigger further selling, while a recovery above resistance would require a significant positive catalyst. The stock's beta of 0.613 indicates it is about 39% less volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a regulated utility, but its recent max drawdown of -17.6% highlights that it has not been immune to sector-wide de-rating and interest rate sensitivity.

Beta

0.61

0.61x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-17.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$121-$148

Price range past year

Annual Return

-11.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAWK ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.7%+0.7%
3m-7.9%+15.1%
6m-4.0%+9.7%
1y-11.4%+25.0%
ytd-4.0%+9.5%

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AWK Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains steady but modest, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $1.271 billion representing a 5.83% year-over-year increase; however, examining sequential quarters reveals some volatility, with Q3 2025 revenue at $1.451 billion and Q2 at $1.276 billion, suggesting growth is stable but not accelerating. The company is consistently profitable, with net income of $238 million in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 21.61%, though gross margin was an anomalous -13.45% for that quarter due to a high cost of revenue figure, which contrasts sharply with the healthy operating margin of 36.56% and gross margins above 43% in other periods, indicating potential one-time accounting items rather than a structural profitability issue. Balance sheet and cash flow analysis shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.47, which is elevated but manageable for a capital-intensive utility, and a return on equity of 10.25% is respectable; however, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.067 billion, primarily due to heavy capital expenditures of over $1 billion in the latest quarter, which is typical for utilities funding infrastructure investments but does mean the company relies on external financing to fund its growth, as evidenced by significant debt repayment and issuance activities in the cash flow statements.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.05%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-0.13%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-1.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Regulated Business

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Valuation Analysis: Is AWK Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with a positive net income of $238 million in the last quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.9x, while the forward PE is lower at 19.3x, indicating the market expects earnings growth, which aligns with the company's affirmed 8% EPS growth guidance for 2026. Compared to sector averages, a trailing PE of 22.9x for a regulated utility is at a premium; utilities often trade at lower multiples due to their stable, slow-growth nature, so this premium likely reflects American Water's position as the industry leader with a superior growth profile and acquisition potential, though it also makes the stock more sensitive to interest rate changes. Historically, the stock's own PE ratio has fluctuated significantly, as seen in the historical ratios data where it ranged from a low near 13.3x in late 2021 to a high of 51.0x in early 2021; the current 22.9x is below the multi-year average implied by this wide range, suggesting the stock is not at historical valuation extremes and may be pricing in a more moderate growth outlook compared to past exuberance.

PE

22.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 13x~51x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple