Burlington
BURL
$326.50
-2.02%
Burlington Stores, Inc. is an off-price retailer offering a broad assortment of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise including apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, and baby products, operating primarily in the U.S. As a key player in the off-price retail segment, Burlington competes with TJX Companies and Ross Stores, differentiating itself through a treasure-hunt shopping experience and a flexible inventory model. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain robust revenue growth and margin expansion amid a challenging consumer environment, with recent earnings beating estimates but still falling short of lofty expectations, leading to a pullback in the stock and debates about valuation and growth sustainability.…
BURL
Burlington
$326.50
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy BURL Today?
We rate Burlington as a Buy, given its strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and analyst consensus. The average price target of $386 implies 18.2% upside, and the forward P/E of 23.58x is reasonable for a company with 32% expected EPS growth. The PEG ratio of 1.54 supports the valuation, and the company's market position in off-price retail is solid.
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BURL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by strong growth metrics and reasonable valuation. However, confidence is medium due to high debt and market volatility. The stock's performance will depend on sustaining growth and managing leverage. If growth decelerates or debt becomes a concern, the stance would be downgraded to neutral.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Burlington's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $386.00 and implied upside of +18.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$386.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$310 - $440
Analyst target range
Burlington is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 1.79 on a 5-point scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $386.00, implying an upside of 18.2% from the current price of $326.50. The distribution includes 10 Buy/Overweight ratings, 5 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell (implied from the mean and actions). The target range spans from $310.00 (low) to $440.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a 34.8% upside, possibly assuming continued market share gains and margin expansion, while the low target implies a 5.1% downside, reflecting risks from consumer spending slowdown or competitive pressures. Recent ratings actions show a mix of reaffirmations and one downgrade (Truist from Buy to Hold in May 2026), indicating some caution but overall bullish sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: BURL Investment Factors
Burlington presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a strong analyst consensus. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation, carries high debt, and has recently pulled back due to lofty expectations. The bull case is supported by solid fundamentals and growth prospects, while the bear case hinges on valuation risk and macro sensitivity. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the company's execution and analyst targets, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth rate to justify the premium multiple. If growth decelerates, the stock could face significant de-rating.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q1 FY2026 revenue grew 14.08% YoY to $2.856B, up from $2.504B in the prior-year quarter, marking the fastest growth in recent quarters. This acceleration demonstrates strong market share gains and consumer demand for off-price retail.
- Expanding Gross Margins: Gross margin improved to 44.17% in Q1 FY2026 from 43.89% in Q1 FY2025, reflecting better merchandise margins and supply chain efficiencies. This 28 bps expansion, while modest, indicates pricing power and operational discipline.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: With a consensus 'Buy' rating (mean 1.79) and an average price target of $386, the stock offers 18.2% upside from the current $326.50. The high target of $440 implies 34.8% upside, suggesting analysts see significant growth potential.
- Reasonable PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio of 1.54, based on a forward P/E of 23.58 and expected EPS growth of ~32%, suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. This is below the typical threshold of 2.0 for overvaluation, indicating a balanced risk-reward.
Bearish
- High Valuation Premium: Trailing P/E of 31.11x is 41% above the industry average of 22x, reflecting high growth expectations. Any slowdown in growth could trigger multiple compression, leading to significant downside.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity stands at 3.32, indicating substantial leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated or if earnings disappoint, potentially straining cash flows.
- Recent Stock Pullback: The stock fell 7.76% in the past month and 6.73% in the last week, closing at $326.50, down from its 52-week high of $378.33. This suggests investor disappointment despite beating estimates, as expectations were sky-high.
- Relative Strength Weakness: Relative strength is negative across all timeframes (1M: -10.21%, 3M: -2.08%, 1Y: -2.01%), indicating underperformance vs. the S&P 500. This could signal fading momentum and potential further downside.
BURL Technical Analysis
Burlington's stock has demonstrated a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +18.47%, though it has recently pulled back from its 52-week high of $378.33. As of August 21, 2026, the stock trades at $326.50, which is approximately 86% of its 52-week range (calculated as (326.50 - 240.49) / (378.33 - 240.49) = 62.3% of the range, but relative to the high it's 86.3% of the high). This positioning suggests the stock is still in the upper portion of its range, indicating momentum but also potential overextension after a strong run.
Beta
1.47
1.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$240-$378
Price range past year
Annual Return
+18.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BURL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.8% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +0.6% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +3.6% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +18.5% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +9.4% | +12.3% |
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BURL Fundamental Analysis
Burlington's revenue has been growing steadily, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2026, ended May 2, 2026) reporting revenue of $2.856 billion, a 14.08% YoY increase from $2.504 billion in the prior-year quarter. This growth is accelerating, as the prior four quarters showed revenue of $2.705B, $2.710B, $3.647B, and $2.504B (Q1 FY2025), indicating a consistent upward trajectory. The company's gross margin improved to 44.17% in Q1 FY2026 from 43.89% in Q1 FY2025, reflecting better merchandise margins and supply chain efficiencies. Net income for Q1 FY2026 was $114.7 million, up from $100.8 million in the year-ago quarter, with net margin expanding to 4.02% from 4.03% (slightly lower due to higher costs).
Quarterly Revenue
$2.9B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$436736000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is BURL Overvalued?
Given that Burlington is profitable, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 31.11x, while the forward P/E is 23.58x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of about 32% (calculated as (31.11/23.58 - 1) = 31.9%). This gap suggests strong growth expectations, which are supported by the PEG ratio of 1.54, implying a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (approximation from sector data), Burlington trades at a 41% premium, reflecting its superior growth and profitability. Historically, Burlington's P/E has ranged from 13.4x to 212x over the past five years, with the current trailing P/E of 31.1x sitting near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history.
PE
31.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~137x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are elevated due to Burlington's high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, which amplifies vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The company's net margin of 4.02% in Q1 FY2026 is thin, leaving little room for cost shocks. Additionally, free cash flow of $436.7M TTM is modest relative to debt obligations, and the payout ratio of 0% means no dividend cushion for investors. Any earnings miss could strain debt servicing and force cost cuts, impacting growth investments.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) High debt-to-equity of 3.32, which increases financial risk; 2) Valuation risk, as a premium P/E could compress if growth slows; 3) Consumer spending sensitivity, given its discretionary nature; 4) Competitive pressure from TJX and Ross. The most severe risk is a recession, which could lead to a 20-30% decline.
The 12-month forecast is positive, with a base case target of $386 (50% probability), bull case of $440 (30%), and bear case of $310 (20%). The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming continued growth and stable margins. Analysts are bullish, with an average target of $386, implying 18.2% upside.
BURL is fairly valued relative to its growth, with a forward P/E of 23.58x and PEG of 1.54. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x, it trades at a 41% premium, reflecting its superior growth. Historically, the trailing P/E of 31.1x is near the lower end of its 5-year range (13.4x-212x), suggesting it's not overvalued. The market expects 32% EPS growth, which seems achievable given recent trends.
Yes, BURL is a good buy for growth-oriented investors, given its 14.08% revenue growth, expanding margins, and analyst consensus Buy with 18.2% upside. However, the stock is not cheap, trading at 31.1x trailing earnings, so it's not suitable for value investors. The main risk is a consumer downturn, which could hurt sales. For those with a long-term horizon and risk tolerance, it's a solid addition.
BURL is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its growth potential and market position. Short-term trading is risky given its high beta of 1.466 and recent volatility. The company's reinvestment in growth and lack of dividend make it a capital appreciation play. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out market cycles.