Burlington
BURL
$320.01
+1.10%
Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer in the Consumer Cyclical sector, operating in the Apparel - Retail industry. The company offers a broad selection of in-season, fashion-focused merchandise, including apparel, accessories, home goods, and toys, sourced directly from manufacturers. As a major player in the off-price retail segment, Burlington competes by providing first-quality, branded merchandise at significant discounts, positioning itself as a value-oriented alternative to traditional department and specialty stores. The current investor narrative revolves around the company's strong post-pandemic recovery and market share gains, as evidenced by robust recent revenue growth and margin expansion, with attention focused on its ability to sustain momentum in a potentially softening consumer spending environment.…
BURL
Burlington
$320.01
Investment Opinion: Should I buy BURL Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that Burlington is a high-quality growth story trading at a full valuation that already reflects its strong execution, leaving limited near-term margin of safety.
Supporting evidence includes robust 11.47% YoY revenue growth, improving net margin of 5.27%, and strong analyst sentiment with 'Overweight' ratings. However, the forward PE of 24.63x, while lower than trailing, still commands a premium, and the stock's 50% yearly run-up suggests much good news is priced in. The implied upside to the 52-week high of $351.85 is only about 6%, offering limited reward for the volatility (beta 1.62) and leverage (D/E 3.32) risks.
The two biggest risks are a growth deceleration that triggers multiple compression, and a consumer spending slowdown exacerbating leverage concerns. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the forward PE compressed below 20x without a deterioration in the growth outlook, or if revenue growth accelerated further above 15%. It would downgrade to a Sell if quarterly revenue growth decelerated below 5% or if net margins contracted sequentially. Relative to its own history and the retail sector, the stock is currently fairly valued to slightly overvalued, pricing in near-perfect execution.
Sign up to view all
BURL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral based on a clash between strong fundamentals and a fully valued stock. The accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion are compelling, but the 50% price appreciation and premium valuation (24.6x forward PE) leave little room for error. High volatility (beta 1.62) and leverage add risk. The stance would upgrade to bullish on a pullback toward $280 that improves the risk/reward profile, or if next-quarter earnings show accelerating growth without margin sacrifice. It would downgrade to bearish on a breakdown below key technical support near $300 accompanied by deteriorating fundamentals.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Burlington's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $416.01 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$416.01
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$256 - $416
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Burlington is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which suggests it may have less institutional scrutiny than larger peers. The consensus sentiment, inferred from the limited data and recent institutional ratings, is bullish, with major firms like JP Morgan, Barclays, and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Overweight' or equivalent ratings as recently as March 2026. The average revenue estimate for the period is $15.54 billion, with a range from $15.25 billion to $15.84 billion, indicating a relatively tight spread and moderate consensus on the top-line outlook. The high end of the revenue estimate range likely assumes successful market share capture and stable consumer demand, while the low end may factor in potential macroeconomic headwinds or margin pressure. The pattern of recent institutional ratings shows consistent reaffirmations of bullish stances, with no downgrades in the provided data, signaling sustained analyst confidence in the company's trajectory despite the stock's strong performance.
Bulls vs Bears: BURL Investment Factors
The bull case, centered on accelerating revenue growth (11.47% YoY) and expanding margins, currently holds stronger evidence, supported by a powerful 50% yearly price trend. However, the bear case presents significant counterpoints, primarily the stock's premium valuation (31x trailing PE) and high financial leverage (D/E of 3.32). The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether Burlington's superior growth and margin trajectory can sustainably justify its premium multiple in the face of a highly leveraged balance sheet and a volatile, consumer-dependent business model. The resolution of this growth-versus-valuation tension will dictate the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration: Q4 revenue grew 11.47% YoY to $3.65B, a significant acceleration from prior-year trends. This demonstrates robust consumer demand for Burlington's off-price model and effective execution in capturing market share.
- Impressive Profitability & Margin Expansion: Net margin improved to 5.27% TTM, with Q4 operating margin at 7.34% and gross margin at 40.11%. The sequential quarterly improvement in profitability indicates strong pricing power and operational efficiency gains.
- Powerful Technical Uptrend: The stock is up 50.13% over the past year and trades at 94% of its 52-week high ($351.85). This sustained momentum reflects strong investor conviction and a breakout from previous trading ranges.
- Analyst Confidence & Growth Expectations: Major institutions maintain 'Overweight' ratings, and the forward PE of 24.63x is below the trailing PE of 31.09x, implying the market expects continued earnings growth. The average revenue estimate for the period is $15.54B.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation at Risk: A trailing PE of 31.09x and forward PE of 24.63x represent a significant premium to the retail sector average. This high multiple leaves the stock vulnerable to compression if growth decelerates or market sentiment shifts away from growth stocks.
- High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 is elevated, indicating substantial financial leverage. This increases interest expense risk and reduces financial flexibility, especially in a higher-rate environment.
- Extended Price & Recent Underperformance: Trading near its 52-week high after a 50% yearly gain, the stock is extended. Recent 1-month relative strength of -7.94% vs. SPY signals underperformance and potential consolidation or profit-taking.
- High Volatility & Consumer Cyclical Risk: A beta of 1.62 means the stock is 62% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside risk. As a consumer cyclical retailer, Burlington is highly sensitive to economic downturns and softening consumer spending.
BURL Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained and powerful uptrend, with the price appreciating 50.13% over the past year. As of the latest close at $331.77, the stock is trading at approximately 94% of its 52-week high of $351.85, indicating it is near the top of its annual range and reflecting significant investor optimism and momentum. This positioning suggests the stock is extended and may be vulnerable to a pullback if the bullish narrative falters, though it also signals strong underlying demand. Recent momentum shows a deceleration from the torrid yearly pace, with a 0.76% gain over the past month and an 11.35% gain over the past three months. The 1-month relative strength of -7.94% versus the SPY indicates the stock has recently underperformed the broader market's 8.7% surge, which could signal a period of consolidation or rotation out of the name after its substantial run. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $217.23, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $351.85; a decisive breakout above resistance would confirm the continuation of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below support would signal a major trend reversal. The stock exhibits high volatility with a beta of 1.62, meaning it is approximately 62% more volatile than the SPY, which is critical for risk management as it implies larger price swings in both directions.
Beta
1.62
1.62x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$219-$352
Price range past year
Annual Return
+42.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BURL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.7% | +10.5% |
| 3m | +8.2% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +17.0% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +42.2% | +29.6% |
| ytd | +7.2% | +5.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
BURL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $3.65 billion representing an 11.47% year-over-year increase. This growth rate marks a significant acceleration from the prior-year comparable period, indicating strong consumer demand and effective execution of the off-price model. The company's profitability is solid and improving, with net income of $310.4 million in the latest quarter and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 5.27%. The quarterly gross margin of 40.11% and operating margin of 7.34% demonstrate healthy pricing power and cost control, with margins showing sequential improvement from earlier quarters in the fiscal year. Financial health is supported by strong cash generation but weighed by significant leverage; the company generated $231.7 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow and has an operating cash flow of $937.5 million for the latest quarter. However, the balance sheet carries substantial debt, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, which elevates financial risk, though this is partially offset by a current ratio of 1.23 indicating adequate short-term liquidity.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.6B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.40%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$231745000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is BURL Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 31.09x, while the forward PE is 24.63x, based on estimated EPS of $16.42. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings growth to continue, justifying the current premium. Compared to typical retail sector averages, a trailing PE of 31x represents a significant premium, which must be justified by Burlington's superior growth profile and margin expansion potential relative to peers. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated widely; the current trailing PE of 31.09x is above the lower end of its historical range seen in recent years but below the extreme highs observed during peak growth phases in 2021. This suggests the market is pricing in strong, but not euphoric, expectations for future performance, leaving room for multiple expansion if execution remains flawless.
PE
31.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~338x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are centered on leverage and valuation. The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 is high, increasing financial risk and interest expense sensitivity. While free cash flow generation is positive at $231.7M TTM, the premium trailing PE of 31.09x creates earnings multiple compression risk if growth falters. Revenue concentration in the cyclical apparel retail sector adds earnings volatility, making the company dependent on sustained 10%+ growth to justify its valuation.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to valuation and macro sensitivity. Trading at a significant PE premium to the retail sector, any sector rotation away from growth or a miss on earnings expectations could trigger a sharp de-rating. The stock's high beta of 1.62 confirms its amplified sensitivity to broader market swings. As an off-price retailer, Burlington faces intense competition from TJX and Ross, and its model is vulnerable to a pullback in discretionary consumer spending, which is a key risk in the current economic environment.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a perfect storm of consumer recession, margin compression, and multiple contraction. A severe downturn in discretionary spending could cause revenue growth to stall or turn negative, while fixed costs and high debt leverage pressure margins. This could trigger analyst downgrades and a rapid de-rating from the current 31x PE toward the sector average, potentially around 15-20x. The realistic downside could see the stock re-test its 52-week low of $217.23, representing a loss of approximately -35% from the current price of $331.77. The historical max drawdown of -19.55% understates the potential risk given the stock's elevated starting valuation.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Valuation Compression: The high PE multiple (31x trailing) could contract sharply if growth decelerates. 2) Financial Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 increases interest expense risk and reduces financial flexibility. 3) Consumer Cyclicality: As a discretionary retailer with a beta of 1.62, the stock is highly sensitive to economic downturns and pullbacks in consumer spending. 4) Execution Risk: Sustaining double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in a competitive off-price market is challenging and any misstep could trigger a sell-off.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios. The Base Case (60% probability) sees the stock trading between $300 and $352, as it meets growth expectations at its current valuation. The Bull Case (25% probability) targets a breakout above $352 to $380, driven by earnings beats and multiple expansion. The Bear Case (15% probability) warns of a drop toward the $217-$280 range if consumer spending weakens. The Base Case is most likely, assuming the company executes its plan but the premium multiple limits further upside without new catalysts.
BURL is fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to its growth profile. The trailing PE of 31.09x and forward PE of 24.63x represent a significant premium to the broader retail sector. This premium is justified by its superior growth rate (11.47% YoY) but leaves the stock vulnerable to compression if that growth slows. Compared to its own history, the valuation is above the lower end of its range but not at euphoric highs, suggesting the market is pricing in strong, but not flawless, continued execution.
BURL is a good buy for growth investors comfortable with high volatility, but not for everyone. The stock has strong fundamentals with 11.47% revenue growth and margin expansion, but its 50% yearly gain and premium forward PE of 24.6x mean much of the good news is priced in. The limited upside to the 52-week high (~6%) is outweighed by the -35% potential downside to the 52-week low, creating a skewed risk/reward at current levels. It becomes a more compelling buy on a significant pullback that improves the valuation entry point.
BURL is more suitable for a medium to long-term investment horizon of 2-3 years, not short-term trading. Its high beta of 1.62 makes it prone to sharp swings, which can punish short-term holders. As a growth stock with no dividend, the return thesis is based on earnings expansion over time. Long-term investors can potentially ride out volatility to capture the company's market share gains, provided they are confident in the multi-year off-price retail trend. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months is suggested to allow the fundamental story to play out beyond quarterly noise.