TJX Companies
TJX
$168.41
+0.04%
The TJX Companies, Inc. is the world's largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, operating over 5,000 stores across nine countries under banners like T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. It is a dominant market leader in the off-price retail sector, distinguished by its opportunistic buying model that secures branded merchandise at significant discounts, driving high inventory turnover and customer traffic. The current investor narrative centers on the resilience and outperformance of its value-focused model, as evidenced by a recent stock surge following Q1 2026 results that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, reinforcing its appeal in an uncertain consumer environment.…
TJX
TJX Companies
$168.41
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TJX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TJX Companies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $218.93 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$218.93
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$135 - $219
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for TJX appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 3 analysts cited for estimates, which is insufficient for a robust consensus view typically associated with a large-cap company. The estimated EPS average is $6.85, with a range from $6.75 to $7.00, and estimated revenue average is $75.50 billion. Without a consensus price target provided, implied upside cannot be calculated. The limited number of data points suggests the provided analyst data may be incomplete. Institutional ratings from the data show a consistently bullish sentiment among covering firms. Recent actions from firms like Telsey Advisory Group (Outperform), Barclays (Overweight), JP Morgan (Overweight), and UBS (Buy) all indicate positive ratings, with no downgrades visible in the recent log. The lack of a wide target price range in the data and the unanimous bullish stance from the listed firms suggests strong institutional conviction in the company's near-term prospects, though the overall thin coverage could lead to higher volatility due to less efficient price discovery.
TJX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained long-term uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +23.86%. As of the latest close at $158.63, the price is trading approximately 84% of the distance from its 52-week low of $119.84 toward its high of $165.82, positioning it near the upper end of its annual range and indicating strong momentum but also potential for overextension. The short-term momentum, however, shows signs of divergence and recent weakness; the 1-month price change is +2.37%, but the 3-month change is negative at -0.44%, suggesting a recent consolidation or pullback within the broader uptrend. This is further evidenced by a significant -13.04% relative strength versus the S&P 500 over the last three months, indicating recent underperformance against the broader market. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $165.82 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $119.82 as major support. A decisive breakout above the $165.82 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a sustained break below the recent May low near $147 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock exhibits lower volatility than the market, with a beta of 0.637, meaning it is approximately 36% less volatile than the S&P 500, which is a characteristic of a more defensive consumer staple-like holding despite its cyclical classification. The stock's recent price action, including a sharp rally to $165.00 on April 9th followed by a retreat, illustrates the battle near the all-time high resistance level. The current price sits below that peak, and the negative 3-month return of -0.44% against a positive 1-year return of +23.86% highlights a period of consolidation. The low beta of 0.637 suggests the stock's moves, while significant in absolute terms, are typically more muted than the overall market's swings, which can be attractive for risk-adjusted portfolio construction.
Beta
0.62
0.62x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-10.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$120-$170
Price range past year
Annual Return
+35.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TJX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.5% | -0.1% |
| 3m | +8.4% | +12.0% |
| 6m | +7.9% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +35.3% | +22.9% |
| ytd | +9.2% | +8.8% |
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TJX Fundamental Analysis
TJX exhibits a robust and accelerating revenue growth trajectory. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 FY2026 ending Jan 31, 2026) was $17.74 billion, representing a strong 8.5% year-over-year growth. This growth has been consistent, with sequential quarterly revenues for FY2026 showing a steady climb from $13.11B in Q1 to $17.74B in Q4. The Marmaxx segment (T.J. Maxx and Marshalls in the U.S.) is the primary growth driver, contributing $10.66 billion, or approximately 61% of total sales in the latest period, underscoring the core business's strength. The company is highly profitable with expanding margins. Net income for the latest quarter was $1.77 billion, yielding a net margin of 9.99%. The gross margin for the period was a healthy 30.86%. More importantly, profitability is improving; comparing the latest Q4 to the year-ago Q4 (Jan 2025), net income grew from $1.40B to $1.77B, and the net margin expanded from 8.55% to 9.99%. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a substantial $4.86 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation. TJX maintains a solid balance sheet and exceptional cash flow. The company's return on equity is an impressive 53.92%, indicating highly efficient use of shareholder capital. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.32, which is manageable for a capital-intensive retailer. Most notably, the robust free cash flow of $4.86 billion provides ample internal funding for growth initiatives, share repurchases ($784 million in the latest quarter), and dividends ($471 million paid). The current ratio of 1.14 indicates sufficient short-term liquidity to meet obligations.
Quarterly Revenue
$17.7B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.08%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.30%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TJX Overvalued?
Given TJX's consistent profitability with net income of $1.77 billion in its latest quarter, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 30.68x and a forward PE of 27.54x. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, with analysts projecting forward EPS of $6.85. Compared to sector averages (data not available in the provided set), a precise industry premium/discount cannot be quantified. However, a trailing PE of 30.7x is generally considered elevated for a traditional retailer, suggesting the market is pricing in TJX's superior growth profile, consistent execution, and the defensive characteristics of its off-price model which have commanded a premium valuation. Historically, TJX's own valuation has been rich. The historical ratios data shows its PE ratio over recent quarters has ranged from the low 20s to over 35x. The current trailing PE of 30.68x sits above the median of its recent historical range, indicating the stock is trading at a relatively high valuation level within its own context. This suggests the market has already priced in a high degree of optimism regarding its future earnings stability and growth, leaving less room for multiple expansion.
PE
30.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 19x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple

