Crown Holdings
CCK
$119.87
+1.71%
Crown Holdings Inc. is a global leader in metal packaging, producing beverage cans, food cans, closures, and aerosol cans, with a significant presence in protective transport packaging through its Signode acquisition. The company operates across Europe, the Americas, and Southeast Asia, leveraging its scale and innovation to maintain a competitive edge in the packaging industry. Currently, investor attention is focused on Crown's defensive qualities, as its essential, non-cyclical packaging products provide stable cash flows and pricing power, while the company has been aggressively raising dividends to attract yield-seeking investors in a high-interest-rate environment. Recent analyst actions, including upgrades from JP Morgan and reaffirmations from Raymond James and RBC Capital, highlight growing confidence in the company's growth trajectory and margin expansion.…
CCK
Crown Holdings
$119.87
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CCK Today?
Rating: Buy. Crown Holdings offers a compelling risk-reward profile with strong revenue growth, attractive valuation, and a defensive business model. The analyst consensus of 'Buy' with an average target price of $136.57 supports this view, implying a 15.9% upside from the current price. The company's ability to grow revenue at 12.89% YoY while maintaining a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market is undervaluing its earnings potential.
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CCK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish, driven by strong revenue acceleration, attractive valuation metrics, and a supportive analyst community. The company's defensive packaging business provides stability, while its growth prospects are underpinned by increasing demand for sustainable packaging. However, the medium confidence reflects uncertainties around margin stability and high debt levels. If the company can sustain double-digit revenue growth and improve margins, the stock is likely to re-rate higher. Conversely, any signs of growth deceleration or margin erosion would warrant a downgrade to neutral.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Crown Holdings's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $136.57 and implied upside of +13.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$136.57
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+13.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$121 - $155
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $121.00 to a high of $155.00, with the high target implying a 31.5% upside from the current price, suggesting expectations of significant growth or multiple expansion. The low target, however, is only 2.7% above the current price, indicating some analysts see limited upside, possibly due to concerns about margin compression or competitive pressures. The wide spread between the low and high targets (34 points) reflects moderate uncertainty about the company's future performance. Institutional ratings show a mix of Buy and Hold ratings, with no recent downgrades, and the recent upgrade by JP Morgan suggests improving sentiment. Overall, the consensus leans bullish, with a clear majority of analysts recommending Buy or Outperform, and the average target price implies a solid upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: CCK Investment Factors
Crown Holdings presents a compelling investment case with strong revenue growth, attractive valuation metrics, and a bullish analyst consensus. The company's defensive packaging business provides stability, while its dividend increases appeal to income investors. However, high debt levels and margin volatility introduce risks that could temper upside. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, supported by accelerating revenue and a low PEG ratio, but the key tension lies in whether the company can sustain its growth momentum while managing its leverage. If revenue growth continues at double-digit rates and margins stabilize, the stock could re-rate higher; conversely, any slowdown or margin erosion could lead to multiple compression.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 12.89% YoY to $3.259B, up from $2.887B in Q1 2025, marking a significant acceleration from the prior year's growth. This momentum is driven by robust demand in beverage packaging, particularly in the Americas Beverage segment which contributed $1.53B.
- Attractive Valuation with Low PEG: The trailing P/E of 16.06x and forward P/E of 13.03x are reasonable for a packaging leader, while the PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. This implies the market is not fully pricing in expected earnings growth.
- Analyst Consensus Bullish: With 14 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average target price of $136.57, implying a 15.9% upside from the current price of $117.85. The high target of $155.00 suggests a potential 31.5% upside, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- Defensive Qualities and Dividend Growth: As a producer of essential metal packaging, Crown offers stable cash flows and inflation-resistant pricing power, making it an attractive defensive play. The company recently announced a significant dividend increase, with a current yield of 1.01%, appealing to income-focused investors in a high-rate environment.
Bearish
- High Debt Levels: The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06 is elevated, reflecting significant leverage from the Signode acquisition. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows weaken, potentially constraining future growth investments.
- Low Gross Margin Volatility: Gross margin fluctuated significantly, from 22.64% in Q2 2025 to 10.30% in Q4 2025, before recovering to 19.76% in Q1 2026. This volatility suggests sensitivity to input costs and pricing dynamics, which could pressure profitability if not managed well.
- Limited Upside to Low Target: The analyst low target of $121.00 is only 2.7% above the current price, indicating that some analysts see limited near-term upside. This could reflect concerns about margin compression or competitive pressures that might cap the stock's appreciation.
- Potential Overextension Near Highs: The stock is trading at 96.7% of its 52-week range, near the high of $121.90. This positioning could make it vulnerable to profit-taking or a pullback if market sentiment shifts, especially given the recent 0.52% price decline.
CCK Technical Analysis
Crown Holdings has demonstrated a robust uptrend over the past year, with the stock price increasing by 18.61% over the last 12 months. The current price of $117.85 sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 96.7% of the range (calculated as (117.85 - 89.21) / (121.90 - 89.21) * 100). This positioning near the highs suggests strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also raises the risk of overextension. The stock's beta of 0.593 indicates lower volatility than the broader market, making it a relatively stable investment option.
Beta
0.58
0.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$89-$122
Price range past year
Annual Return
+22.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CCK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.8% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +21.5% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +4.0% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +22.1% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +15.1% | +11.1% |
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CCK Fundamental Analysis
Crown Holdings reported revenue of $3.259 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 12.89% year-over-year growth rate, a significant acceleration from the prior year's Q1 revenue of $2.887 billion. The company's revenue trajectory has been consistently positive, with quarterly revenues of $3.149 billion in Q2 2025, $3.202 billion in Q3 2025, and $3.127 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a stable growth pattern. Segment-wise, Americas Beverage is the largest contributor at $1.53 billion, followed by European Beverage at $588 million and Transit Packaging at $496 million, with the beverage segments driving overall growth due to increasing demand for sustainable packaging.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
19.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$976000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CCK Overvalued?
Given Crown Holdings' positive net income of $175 million in Q1 2026, the trailing P/E ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing P/E stands at 16.06x, while the forward P/E is 13.03x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests an anticipated improvement in earnings, which is supported by the company's strong revenue growth and margin expansion. The PEG ratio of 0.20 further underscores the stock's attractiveness relative to its growth rate, implying that the market may be undervaluing its future earnings potential.
PE
16.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Crown's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06 indicates substantial leverage, primarily from the Signode acquisition. This high debt load increases interest expense, which was $97 million in Q1 2026, and could strain cash flows if earnings decline. The company's gross margin has been volatile, swinging from 22.64% in Q2 2025 to 10.30% in Q4 2025, reflecting sensitivity to input costs and pricing. While revenue growth is strong, the reliance on beverage packaging, which accounts for a significant portion of sales, exposes the company to shifts in consumer preferences and competition from alternative materials. Additionally, the current ratio of 1.03 suggests tight liquidity, which could limit flexibility in adverse conditions.
FAQ
The key risks of holding CCK include: 1) High financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06, which increases vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. 2) Margin volatility, as seen in the gross margin swinging from 22.64% in Q2 2025 to 10.30% in Q4 2025, which could impact profitability. 3) Competitive pressures from other packaging companies like Ball Corporation and Amcor, which could lead to pricing pressures. 4) Macroeconomic risks, such as a recession reducing consumer spending and demand for packaged goods. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors leading to a decline to the 52-week low of $89.21, representing a -24.3% downside from the current price.
The 12-month forecast for CCK is positive, with a base case probability of 50% for the stock to reach the average analyst target of $136.57, implying a 15.9% upside. The bull case, with a 30% probability, targets $140-$155, driven by strong growth and margin expansion. The bear case, with a 20% probability, could see the stock decline to $95-$110 if economic conditions deteriorate. The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes continued revenue growth of 8-12% and stable margins. Overall, the stock is expected to appreciate over the next year, supported by a favorable analyst consensus and attractive valuation.
CCK appears undervalued based on its valuation metrics. The trailing P/E of 16.06x and forward P/E of 13.03x are reasonable for a packaging company, and the PEG ratio of 0.20 is well below the typical threshold of 1, indicating that the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.96 is also modest, and the EV/EBITDA of 8.50x is in line with industry peers. The market is pricing in earnings growth, as evidenced by the lower forward P/E, but the low PEG suggests that the market may not be fully recognizing the company's growth potential. Therefore, the stock is undervalued relative to its fundamentals.
Yes, CCK is a good stock to buy for investors seeking a defensive growth play. The stock offers a 15.9% upside to the average analyst target of $136.57, and its PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests it is undervalued relative to its growth rate. The company's strong revenue growth of 12.89% YoY and solid profitability metrics, such as a 24.47% ROE, support the bullish case. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06 is a risk that could limit upside if interest rates rise. Overall, it is a suitable buy for long-term investors with a moderate risk tolerance, particularly those looking for stable cash flows and dividend growth.
CCK is more suitable for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics and growth potential. The stock's beta of 0.593 indicates lower volatility than the market, making it a stable holding for long-term investors. The company's consistent revenue growth, dividend payments, and strong free cash flow generation provide a solid foundation for long-term capital appreciation. While short-term trading could benefit from momentum, the stock's near-term upside is limited by the low target price of $121.00. Therefore, a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to fully realize the benefits of its growth and dividend compounding.