Crown Holdings
CCK
$116.24
-2.34%
Crown Holdings Inc. is a global leader in metal packaging, manufacturing beverage cans, metal food cans, closures, and aerosol cans, along with protective transport packaging through its Signode acquisition. The company operates primarily in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia, distinguishing itself as a key supplier to major consumer brands with a diversified geographic footprint. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's defensive positioning amid economic uncertainty, with recent news highlighting its cash flow strength and dividend increases to attract income-focused investors. Additionally, the stock has shown strong momentum in 2026, driven by robust demand in its beverage can segments and operational efficiencies.…
CCK
Crown Holdings
$116.24
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CCK Today?
Based on the analysis, Crown Holdings is rated a Buy. The company's strong revenue growth of 12.89% YoY, combined with a forward PE of 13.16x and a PEG ratio of 0.20, indicates significant undervaluation relative to its growth prospects. The average analyst target of $136.57 implies a 14.75% upside, and the low target of $121 still exceeds the current price, providing a favorable risk/reward profile.
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CCK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on Crown Holdings, driven by strong revenue acceleration, undervaluation relative to peers, and solid profitability metrics. The medium confidence reflects the uncertainty around margin sustainability and high debt levels. If the company continues to execute on its growth strategy and manages its leverage, the stock is likely to appreciate toward the analyst target. However, any significant margin deterioration or economic downturn could warrant a downgrade to neutral.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Crown Holdings's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $136.57 and implied upside of +17.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$136.57
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+17.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$121 - $155
Analyst target range
Crown Holdings is covered by 14 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish, as indicated by recent actions from firms like Raymond James (Outperform), B of A Securities (Buy), and RBC Capital (Outperform). The average target price is $136.57, implying an upside of 14.75% from the current price of $119.02. The target range spans from $121.00 to $155.00, with the low end still above the current price, suggesting that even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside. The high target of $155.00 implies a 30.2% upside, likely reflecting expectations of continued margin expansion and strong cash flow generation.
Bulls vs Bears: CCK Investment Factors
Crown Holdings presents a compelling bull case with accelerating revenue growth, significant undervaluation relative to peers, and strong analyst support. The bear case centers on high leverage and margin volatility, but these are manageable given the company's cash flow strength. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, as the valuation discount and growth acceleration outweigh the debt concerns. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth momentum while managing its debt load, as any misstep in either area could shift the investment thesis.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 12.89% YoY to $3.259B, up from 8.5% growth in Q4 2025, indicating accelerating demand across beverage and transit packaging segments.
- Undervalued on Multiple Metrics: With a trailing PE of 16.06x and forward PE of 13.16x, CCK trades at a 27% discount to the industry average of 22x, despite superior ROE of 24.47% and operating margin of 13.23%.
- High Analyst Conviction: 14 analysts rate CCK with an average target of $136.57, implying 14.75% upside. The low target of $121 is still above the current price, signaling limited downside risk.
- Defensive Characteristics: Beta of 0.578 indicates lower volatility than the market, and the essential nature of packaging provides stable cash flows, attracting income investors amid economic uncertainty.
Bearish
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06x is elevated, and interest expenses of $97M in Q1 2026 consume a significant portion of operating income, increasing financial risk.
- Margin Pressure in Q4 2025: Gross margin fell to 10.3% in Q4 2025 from 22.6% in Q2 2025, indicating potential cost pressures or one-time charges that could weigh on profitability.
- Relative Underperformance vs Market: Over the past year, CCK gained 17.75% versus SPY's 20.37%, and over 6 months CCK rose 7.43% versus SPY's 13.87%, showing weaker momentum.
- Cyclical Exposure: Despite defensive packaging, CCK is classified under Consumer Cyclical, and economic downturns could reduce beverage and food can demand, impacting revenue.
CCK Technical Analysis
Crown Holdings has exhibited a strong uptrend over the past year, with the stock price rising 17.75% over the last 12 months. Currently trading at $119.02, the stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 97% of the high of $122.91 and 33% above its low of $89.21. This positioning near the highs suggests robust momentum, though it also raises the risk of overextension in the near term. The stock's beta of 0.578 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, making it a defensive choice for investors.
Beta
0.58
0.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$89-$123
Price range past year
Annual Return
+15.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CCK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.8% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +22.0% | +5.3% |
| 6m | +1.9% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +15.6% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +11.6% | +13.3% |
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CCK Fundamental Analysis
Crown Holdings reported revenue of $3.259 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 12.89% year-over-year growth rate, a notable acceleration from the prior quarter's 8.5% growth. The company's revenue trajectory has been steadily improving, with sequential growth from $3.127 billion in Q4 2025 to $3.259 billion in Q1 2026. The growth is driven by strong performance in the Americas Beverage segment, which contributed $1.53 billion in revenue, and European Beverage at $588 million, while Transit Packaging added $496 million. This diversified growth across segments underscores the company's ability to capture demand in both developed and emerging markets.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
19.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$976000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CCK Overvalued?
Given that Crown Holdings has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 16.06x, while the forward PE is 13.16x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 22% over the next year. This gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests optimism about future profitability. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x, Crown Holdings trades at a 27% discount, which is notable given its strong ROE of 24.47% and operating margin of 13.23%. The stock's PEG ratio of 0.20 further highlights its undervaluation relative to growth, as it is well below the typical threshold of 1.0.
PE
16.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~35x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Crown Holdings carries a substantial debt burden with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06x, and interest expenses of $97 million in Q1 2026 represent about 27% of operating income. While free cash flow of $976 million provides coverage, any prolonged downturn could strain debt servicing. Additionally, the company's gross margin has been volatile, dropping to 10.3% in Q4 2025 from 22.6% in Q2 2025, indicating potential cost pressures or one-time charges that could impact profitability. Revenue concentration in beverage cans, particularly in the Americas and Europe, exposes the company to shifts in consumer preferences and raw material costs.
FAQ
The key risks include high financial leverage (debt-to-equity of 2.06x), which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. Margin volatility is another concern, as gross margin dropped to 10.3% in Q4 2025. Competitive pressures from alternative packaging materials and economic cyclicality could also impact demand. Additionally, the stock's beta of 0.578, while low, means it may underperform in strong bull markets. Monitoring these factors is crucial for investors.
The 12-month forecast for CCK is positive, with a base case target of $136.57 (analyst average), implying 14.75% upside. The bull case target is $155 (30% upside) with a 35% probability, while the bear case target is $100 (16% downside) with a 15% probability. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming steady growth and stable margins. Key assumptions include revenue growth of 10-12% and EPS of $9.78. Overall, the stock is expected to appreciate, but investors should watch for margin and debt developments.
CCK is undervalued based on multiple metrics. The trailing PE of 16.06x and forward PE of 13.16x are below the industry average of 22x, and the PEG ratio of 0.20 is well below 1, indicating the stock is cheap relative to its growth. The PS ratio of 0.96 and EV/EBITDA of 8.5x also support undervaluation. The market appears to be pricing in modest growth, but the company's revenue acceleration and strong ROE suggest higher potential, making the stock an attractive value proposition.
Yes, CCK is a good buy for investors seeking a defensive growth stock. With a forward PE of 13.16x and a PEG ratio of 0.20, the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Analyst targets imply a 14.75% upside, and the low target is still above the current price, limiting downside. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.06x is a risk, so investors should monitor debt levels. Overall, the risk/reward profile is favorable, especially for those with a long-term horizon.
CCK is suitable for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics, low beta of 0.578, and consistent cash flow generation. The company's focus on essential packaging products provides stability, and its undervaluation offers potential for capital appreciation over time. While short-term trading could benefit from momentum, the stock's low volatility and modest dividend yield make it more attractive for investors with a 3-5 year horizon. The current price near 52-week highs suggests limited short-term upside, but long-term growth prospects remain solid.