DHI

D. R. Horton

$166.51

+6.68%
Jun 24, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
D.R. Horton Inc. is the largest homebuilder in the United States, primarily constructing single-family homes across 126 markets in 36 states. The company's distinct competitive identity is that of a dominant market leader with a diversified product portfolio catering to entry-level, move-up, luxury, and active adult buyers, complemented by integrated mortgage financing and title services through its financial services segment. The current investor narrative revolves around the stock's sensitivity to shifting interest rate expectations and housing market dynamics, with recent news highlighting pressure from rising mortgage rates due to geopolitical tensions, juxtaposed against potential tailwinds from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and signals of institutional interest in the housing sector.

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DHI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $166.51
Average Target $166.51
High Target $191.48649999999998
Low Target $141.53349999999998

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on D. R. Horton's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $216.46 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$216.46

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$133 - $216

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage for DHI is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, which is relatively low for a company of its market cap ($52.3 billion). This suggests it may be under-followed by the sell-side, potentially leading to less efficient price discovery. The consensus recommendation, inferred from recent institutional ratings, appears neutral, with actions like 'Equal Weight', 'Neutral', and 'In Line' prevalent. There have been recent downgrades, such as Wells Fargo moving from 'Overweight' to 'Equal Weight' and Citizens moving from 'Market Outperform' to 'Market Perform' in early January 2026, indicating a cautious near-term stance. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $37.50 billion, with a range from $36.66 billion to $38.34 billion, indicating a relatively tight spread and consensus around modest growth. The average EPS estimate is $13.87, with a low of $11.51 and a high of $15.61. The wide range in EPS targets, a spread of over 35% from low to high, signals high uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's earnings power in the current environment, reflecting divergent views on the depth and duration of the housing market slowdown.

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DHI Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile, range-bound consolidation phase with a positive longer-term bias. Over the past year, DHI has gained 30.12%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.99% gain, indicating strong relative strength. The current price of $157.81 sits at approximately 49.5% of its 52-week range ($121.38 to $184.55), suggesting it is trading near the midpoint, which reflects a balance between recovery optimism and cyclical headwinds after a significant drawdown. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong but shows signs of volatility; the stock is up 17.14% over the past month and 18.55% over the past three months, far outpacing the S&P 500's gains of 0.74% and 15.14%, respectively. This acceleration from the 6-month gain of 7.22% suggests a powerful rebound is underway, though the price action within the provided 180-day data shows sharp swings, including a drop to around $133 in March 2026 before the recent surge. The stock's beta of 1.382 confirms it is approximately 38% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $121.38 and resistance at the 52-week high of $184.55. A sustained breakout above $184.55 would signal a resumption of the prior bull trend and challenge all-time highs, while a breakdown below $121.38 would indicate a failure of the recovery thesis and potentially lead to a new downtrend.

Beta

1.38

1.38x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-28.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$125-$185

Price range past year

Annual Return

+28.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDHI ReturnS&P 500
1m+15.8%-1.7%
3m+22.5%+13.7%
6m+13.8%+6.2%
1y+28.5%+20.8%
ytd+14.3%+7.5%

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DHI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has decelerated and turned negative recently, reflecting cyclical pressures in the housing market. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q1 2026) was $6.89 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 9.54%. This follows a sequential decline from the prior quarter's $9.68 billion (Q4 2025), indicating the top-line pressure is acute. The Homebuilding segment, which contributed $6.53 billion, remains the core driver, though its performance is tied directly to housing demand. The company remains solidly profitable with robust margins, though they have compressed from peak levels. Net income for Q1 2026 was $594.8 million, translating to a net margin of 8.64%. The gross margin for the quarter was 23.16%, which has declined from 25.59% in the year-ago quarter (Q1 2025), indicating cost pressures or pricing challenges. The operating margin was 10.59%, down from 13.56% a year ago, showcasing the impact of lower volumes and potentially higher incentives. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, providing significant financial flexibility to navigate the downturn. The debt-to-equity ratio is a conservative 0.249, and the current ratio is a massive 17.39, indicating ample liquidity. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a substantial $3.48 billion, yielding a strong FCF margin and providing capital for shareholder returns and strategic investments. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 14.82%, demonstrating efficient use of shareholder capital even in a softer market.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.09%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.23%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Homebuilding
Eliminations and Other
Forestar Group
Rental
Financial Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is DHI Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 14.58x, while the forward PE is 13.11x, based on estimated EPS. The modest discount of the forward multiple suggests the market expects only slight earnings growth or stabilization in the near term, not a significant rebound. Compared to sector averages, DHI trades at a discount on several metrics. Its trailing PE of 14.58x is below the typical homebuilder average (often in the high single-digits to low teens during cycles), while its Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.53x and EV-to-Sales of 1.49x also suggest a reasonable valuation relative to its revenue base. This discount may reflect concerns over near-term cyclical headwinds like mortgage rates, but it could be justified given the company's industry-leading scale, balance sheet strength, and historical profitability through cycles. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed from higher levels. The current trailing PE of 14.58x is below the 17.70x seen at the end of Q1 2026 (as per historical ratios data) and well below peaks above 20x seen in prior years. Trading near the lower end of its recent historical band suggests the market has priced in a significant amount of pessimism, potentially offering a margin of safety if the housing cycle stabilizes.

PE

14.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 4x~18x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

11.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple