Elevance Health, Inc.
ELV
$346.29
+5.51%
Elevance Health, Inc. is a leading U.S. health insurer providing medical benefits to approximately 45 million members through employer, individual, and government-sponsored plans, operating within the Medical - Healthcare Plans industry. The company holds a distinct competitive identity as the largest single provider of Blue Cross Blue Shield branded coverage, operating as a licensee in 14 states, and has expanded its reach in government programs like Medicaid and Medicare Advantage through strategic acquisitions. The current investor narrative is dominated by sector-wide regulatory developments, specifically the recent larger-than-expected 2027 Medicare Advantage payment increase from CMS, which has boosted revenue visibility and sentiment across managed care stocks, positioning Elevance to potentially benefit from improved pricing dynamics in its substantial government business segments.…
ELV
Elevance Health, Inc.
$346.29
ELV 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Elevance Health, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $450.18 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$450.18
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$277 - $450
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for ELV appears limited, with data indicating only 3 analysts providing estimates, which suggests institutional interest may be concentrated or coverage is sparse for this large-cap name; the consensus leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Mizuho, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo maintaining 'Outperform' or 'Overweight' equivalents. The target price range implied by earnings estimates is wide, with a low EPS estimate of $44.24 and a high of $50.71 against an average of $46.13, reflecting significant uncertainty in the earnings outlook; the high target likely assumes successful navigation of regulatory changes and margin recovery, while the low target may price in continued cost pressures and competitive challenges, with the wide spread indicating a lack of strong conviction on the near-term path.
ELV Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 23.90% over the past year and trading at approximately 31% of its 52-week range, with a current price of $323.05 situated well below the 52-week high of $432.93 and modestly above the low of $273.71. This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the stock is being priced for significant fundamental challenges, though it also presents a potential value opportunity if the negative catalysts are fully priced in. Recent momentum shows a tentative recovery, with the stock up 9.53% over the past month, which contrasts sharply with the longer-term declines of 13.82% and 7.37% over three and six months, respectively; this divergence could signal a technical rebound or mean reversion from deeply oversold conditions, supported by a positive 1-month relative strength of 2.17 versus the SPY. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $432.93 and primary support at the 52-week low of $273.71; a sustained breakdown below $273.71 would signal a continuation of the bear trend, while a recovery above the recent highs near $380 would suggest a more durable reversal, with the stock's low beta of 0.498 indicating it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market during this decline.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-39.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$274-$429
Price range past year
Annual Return
-18.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ELV Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +19.3% | +8.5% |
| 3m | -6.7% | +2.8% |
| 6m | +1.2% | +4.6% |
| 1y | -18.9% | +32.3% |
| ytd | -2.2% | +3.9% |
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ELV Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains positive but has shown volatility on a quarterly basis, with Q4 2025 revenue of $49.75 billion representing a 9.47% year-over-year increase; however, this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $50.71 billion, and the full-year trend indicates moderating growth as the company laps strong prior-year comparables. Profitability metrics have weakened considerably, with Q4 2025 net income plunging to $547 million (a net margin of 1.10%) from $1.19 billion in Q3, and gross margin compressing to 23.48% from 24.79% the prior quarter, reflecting significant margin pressure likely from medical cost trends and investment in growth segments. The balance sheet and cash flow position remains solid but showed strain in the latest quarter, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76 indicating moderate leverage, a current ratio of 1.24 demonstrating adequate short-term liquidity, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $3.17 billion; however, Q4 operating cash flow was a notably weak $84 million, and free cash flow was negative $209 million, suggesting potential near-term cash generation challenges.
Quarterly Revenue
$49.7B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.09%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.23%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ELV Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio stands at 13.73x, while the forward PE is 11.04x, with the forward multiple's discount to the trailing figure reflecting market expectations for earnings growth or recovery from a depressed base. Compared to typical healthcare plan peers, a trailing PE in the low-teens appears to be at a discount, though specific industry average data is not provided; this discount likely prices in concerns over margin compression and regulatory uncertainty within the Medicare Advantage sector. Historically, the current trailing PE of 13.73x is near the lower end of its own historical range, which has seen ratios as high as 35.54x in Q4 2025 and as low as 11.28x in Q1 2025, suggesting the stock is being valued conservatively relative to its own history, which may indicate either a value opportunity or that the market anticipates sustained fundamental deterioration.
PE
13.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 11x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple