EXR

Extra Space Storage

$143.96

+0.90%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Extra Space Storage is a fully integrated real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, operates, and manages over 4,200 self-storage properties across 43 states, offering more than 330 million net rentable square feet of storage space. As one of the largest self-storage REITs in the U.S., it distinguishes itself through a hybrid model of wholly owned properties, joint ventures, and third-party management, providing scale and fee-based income. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth amid a moderating housing market, with recent dividend announcements reinforcing its income appeal, while analysts debate the pace of same-store revenue recovery and margin expansion in a competitive landscape.

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EXR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $143.96
Average Target $143.96
High Target $165.55
Low Target $122.37

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Extra Space Storage's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $187.15 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$187.15

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$115 - $187

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 1 analyst providing estimates. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly stated, but the average EPS estimate is $5.20, with a range of $5.12 to $5.33. The average revenue estimate is $4.30 billion, implying a 4.6% increase from TTM revenue of $4.11 billion. The implied upside/downside cannot be calculated without a target price. The limited coverage suggests Extra Space Storage is a mid-cap REIT with moderate institutional interest, leading to less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility. The institutional ratings show a mix of Hold/Neutral and Overweight/Buy ratings from major firms like JP Morgan (Neutral), Barclays (Overweight), and UBS (Buy), indicating a generally positive but cautious sentiment. The wide range of EPS estimates ($5.12 to $5.33) is narrow, reflecting low uncertainty in near-term earnings. However, the lack of a consensus price target means investors must rely on fundamental analysis and technical levels for valuation guidance.

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EXR Technical Analysis

Extra Space Storage is trading in a range-bound consolidation pattern, with the current price of $143.96 representing 92.7% of its 52-week range ($125.71 to $155.19). The 1-year price change of -3.27% contrasts with the S&P 500's +20.63% gain, indicating significant underperformance. The stock sits below the midpoint of its 52-week range, suggesting a neutral-to-slightly-bearish posture, though not at extreme lows that would signal a deep value opportunity. The 1-month price change of -3.77% shows short-term weakness, while the 3-month change of +3.67% indicates a modest recovery from the March lows. This divergence—negative over one month but positive over three months—suggests a potential short-term pullback within a broader stabilization phase, rather than a trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.2 implies 20% higher volatility than the market, meaning larger swings relative to the S&P 500. The 52-week low of $125.71 provides a key support level, while the 52-week high of $155.19 acts as resistance. A breakout above $155.19 would signal a resumption of the longer-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $125.71 could indicate further downside risk. The current price is roughly midway between these levels, reflecting indecision.

Beta

1.20

1.20x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-17.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$126-$155

Price range past year

Annual Return

-3.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEXR ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.8%+1.8%
3m+3.7%+10.0%
6m+3.4%+8.8%
1y-3.3%+21.1%
ytd+9.9%+10.7%

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EXR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $918.4 million, up 9.25% year-over-year from $840.7 million in Q4 2024. However, the growth trajectory shows deceleration from the 20%+ rates seen in 2022-2023, with sequential quarterly revenue declining from $841.6 million in Q2 2025 to $918.4 million in Q4 2025 (note: Q3 2025 revenue was $777.6 million, which appears lower due to a change in reporting or seasonality). The primary revenue driver is self-storage operations ($734.2 million), supplemented by tenant reinsurance ($89.3 million). The deceleration reflects normalization post-pandemic demand spikes, but the 9.25% YoY growth still outpaces inflation, indicating resilient demand. Net income for Q4 2025 was $283.5 million, with a net margin of 28.8%, down from 31.2% in Q4 2024. Gross margin turned negative at -60.8% due to a large cost of revenue line ($1.48 billion), which includes depreciation and amortization; operating margin, however, was a healthy 48.7%. The company remains profitable with EPS of $1.36, but the negative gross margin is a technical artifact of REIT accounting (cost of revenue includes property costs and depreciation). Operating income of $447.2 million and EBITDA of $977.4 million demonstrate strong operational cash generation. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11, moderate for a REIT, and a current ratio of 1.28, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) was $1.84 billion, providing ample coverage for the dividend (payout ratio of 141% on net income, but FCF covers dividends comfortably). ROE of 7.25% is below the REIT sector average, reflecting high equity base from property holdings. The company generates sufficient cash flow to fund operations and dividends without relying on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$918433000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+9.25%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-60.83%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Self Storage Operations
Tenant Reinsurance

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Valuation Analysis: Is EXR Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($283.5 million in Q4 2025), we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 28.37x, while the forward P/E is 30.29x, implying the market expects earnings to decline slightly or that the forward estimate is conservative. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is narrow, suggesting stable earnings expectations. Compared to the REIT - Industrial industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Extra Space Storage trades at a 29% premium (28.37x vs. 22x). This premium is partially justified by its scale, market leadership, and consistent cash flow generation, but it may also reflect the market's willingness to pay for quality in a stable subsector. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 21x to 49x over the past five years. The current 28.37x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history. The P/B ratio of 2.05x is also below the historical average of ~3x, indicating potential value. The PEG ratio of 2.04x suggests the stock is priced for moderate growth, which aligns with the decelerating revenue trend.

PE

28.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 22x~49x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple