Hasbro
HAS
$87.57
-1.34%
Hasbro, Inc. is a branded play and entertainment company that designs, manufactures, and markets toys, games, and digital entertainment products globally, operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Leisure industry. Its portfolio spans iconic brands such as Transformers, Peppa Pig, and Magic: The Gathering, and the company has strategically expanded into digital tabletop gaming through the acquisition of Dungeons & Dragons Beyond, which provides access to approximately 20 million digital players. Hasbro is distinct as a licensing and entertainment platform, leveraging its intellectual property across toys, television, film, and digital gaming, with a particular emphasis on the high-margin Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment. The current investor narrative centers on the company's turnaround following a significant loss in 2025, driven by strong performance in digital gaming and cost optimization, though recent headlines highlight leadership turnover in the video game division and a cyber incident that caused operational delays, adding uncertainty to the growth trajectory.…
HAS
Hasbro
$87.57
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HAS Today?
Based on the synthesis of fundamental, valuation, and analyst data, Hasbro earns a Buy rating with a medium confidence level. The core thesis is that the company is in the early stages of a successful turnaround, with revenue growing 12.75% YoY, gross margins expanding to 68.23%, and a strong analyst consensus (14 analysts, 'strong_buy') targeting $109.64, implying 25.2% upside. The forward PE of 13.42 and PEG of 0.197 suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, especially compared to historical PE ranges of 15-20x when profitable. Supporting evidence includes: (1) Q1 2026 revenue of $1.0002 billion, up 12.75% YoY, driven by digital gaming; (2) gross margin improvement from 60.18% in Q4 2024 to 68.23% in Q1 2026; (3) TTM free cash flow of $1.021 billion, providing ample coverage for the 3.38% dividend; and (4) a forward PE of 13.42, well below the market average, with estimated EPS of $7.73 for next fiscal year. However, risks include high leverage (D/E 6.32), recent price weakness (-6.17% 1M), and execution uncertainty from leadership turnover and a cyber incident. The rating would upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock breaks above $106.98 (52-week high) on sustained volume or if forward EPS estimates are raised. It would downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 8% or if gross margins fall below 65%. Relative to its own history and peers, HAS appears undervalued on a forward basis, but the premium on trailing metrics (PS 2.47 vs. historical low of 5.03? Actually PS is near low end) suggests the market is pricing in a recovery that must be delivered.
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HAS 12-Month Price Forecast
Hasbro presents a compelling turnaround story with strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and a deeply discounted forward valuation. The digital gaming segment is the key growth engine, but recent leadership turnover and a cyber incident introduce execution risk. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with a strong_buy consensus and a $109.64 average target. The low beta of 0.466 makes it a defensive play, but also limits upside in bull markets. I would upgrade to high confidence if the next earnings report shows sustained digital growth and margin expansion, and downgrade if revenue growth falls below 8% or if debt concerns escalate.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hasbro's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $109.64 and implied upside of +25.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$109.64
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$90 - $120
Analyst target range
Hasbro is covered by 14 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" and an average target price of $109.64. This implies an upside of approximately 25.2% from the current price of $87.57. The recommendation mean of 1.47 (where 1 is a strong buy and 5 is a strong sell) confirms the bullish sentiment. The consensus leans strongly bullish, with no sell ratings indicated in the institutional ratings data, which shows recent actions such as BNP Paribas maintaining Outperform, Roth Capital maintaining Buy, and Citigroup maintaining Buy. The target price range spans from a low of $90.00 to a high of $120.00, representing a 33.3% spread from low to high. The high target of $120 assumes successful execution of the digital gaming strategy, margin expansion, and a resolution of recent operational issues, while the low target of $90 (only 2.8% above the current price) prices in stagnation or further setbacks. The wide spread indicates significant uncertainty, but the skew toward the high end suggests that most analysts see substantial upside. The recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with several firms reiterating positive ratings, which supports the bullish case. The estimated EPS average of $7.73 for the next fiscal year, if achieved, would justify a much higher stock price, and the forward PE of 13.42 is well below the market average, providing a margin of safety.
Bulls vs Bears: HAS Investment Factors
The bull case rests on a successful turnaround, with revenue growing 12.75% YoY, gross margins expanding to 68.23%, and a strong analyst consensus targeting $109.64 (25.2% upside). The bear case highlights high leverage (D/E 6.32), recent price weakness (-6.17% 1M), and execution risks from leadership changes and a cyber incident. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger given the improving fundamentals and attractive forward valuation (forward PE 13.42, PEG 0.197), but the bear concerns are not trivial. The single most important tension is whether the digital gaming segment can sustain its momentum and drive earnings recovery to justify the optimistic forward estimates. If digital gaming growth decelerates or margins compress, the stock could re-rate lower; conversely, successful execution could unlock significant upside.
Bullish
- Strong Q1 2026 revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue rose 12.75% YoY to $1.0002 billion, driven by digital gaming and consumer products. This marks a sharp rebound from the prior-year period and suggests the turnaround is gaining traction.
- High gross margin and operating leverage: Gross margin expanded to 68.23% in Q1 2026 from 60.18% in Q4 2024, while operating margin reached 27.02%. The mix shift toward high-margin digital gaming is lifting profitability.
- Attractive forward valuation: Forward PE of 13.42 and PEG of 0.197 are well below historical averages and the broader market, implying significant undervaluation if earnings recover as expected. PS ratio of 2.47 is near multi-year lows.
- Strong analyst consensus and upside: 14 analysts rate HAS a 'strong_buy' with an average target of $109.64, implying 25.2% upside. The high target of $120 suggests 37% potential, and no sell ratings are present.
Bearish
- Elevated leverage and negative ROE: Debt-to-equity of 6.32 is very high, and ROE is -59.87% due to prior losses. Interest expense of $41.8 million in Q1 2026 consumes a meaningful portion of operating income.
- Recent price momentum weak: The stock has declined 6.17% over the past month and 3.89% over six months, underperforming SPY by 5.21% and 21.33% respectively. This suggests waning investor confidence despite the longer-term gain.
- Leadership turnover and cyber incident: The departure of WotC President John Hight and a cyber incident causing operational delays add uncertainty to the digital gaming growth story. These events could disrupt execution and delay product launches.
- Low beta limits upside participation: Beta of 0.466 means the stock is roughly 53% less volatile than the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also implies muted upside during broad market rallies. It may lag in bull markets.
HAS Technical Analysis
Hasbro's stock is in a recovery phase, with a 1-year price change of +16.95%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's +15.01% gain. The current price of $87.57 sits at 45.3% of its 52-week range (low of $69.50, high of $106.98), indicating that while the stock has rebounded from its lows, it remains well below its peak, suggesting room for further upside if momentum sustains. This positioning reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic but not yet fully convinced of a sustained breakout. Over the past month, the stock has declined 6.17%, contrasting with the 3.34% gain over three months and the 16.95% one-year advance, signaling a recent loss of momentum. The 1-month relative strength versus SPY is -5.21%, highlighting underperformance, while the 3-month relative strength is +1.34%, suggesting the recent pullback may be a temporary consolidation within a longer-term uptrend. The 6-month change of -3.89% further underscores the choppy trading environment, with the stock unable to hold earlier gains. Key technical levels are defined by the 52-week low at $69.50, which serves as major support, and the 52-week high at $106.98, acting as resistance. A breakdown below $69.50 would signal a bearish reversal and potential test of lower levels, while a breakout above $106.98 would confirm a new uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers. The stock's beta of 0.466 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market—roughly 53% less volatile than SPY—which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also implies muted upside during market rallies. The current price is 20.7% above the 52-week low and 18.1% below the 52-week high, placing it in the middle of its range, where direction is less clear and volatility may persist.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$70-$107
Price range past year
Annual Return
+16.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HAS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.2% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +3.3% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -3.9% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +16.9% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +5.5% | +11.7% |
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HAS Fundamental Analysis
Hasbro's revenue trajectory has shown resilience, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.0002 billion, a 12.75% year-over-year increase from $887.1 million in Q1 2025. This growth follows a strong Q4 2025 with revenue of $1.4459 billion and Q3 2025 revenue of $1.3875 billion, indicating a rebound from the pandemic-related disruptions. The revenue mix is heavily weighted toward the Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment, which generated $582 million, and Consumer Products at $397.9 million, while the Entertainment segment contributed only $20.3 million. The digital gaming segment's outperformance is a key driver, though the recent departure of the WotC president raises questions about leadership continuity. Profitability has improved markedly, with Q1 2026 net income of $199.5 million compared to a net loss of $855.8 million in Q2 2025, which included a massive $1.038 billion other expense. The gross margin in Q1 2026 was 68.23%, consistent with the 68.95% in Q4 2025 and 68.37% in Q3 2025, but up from 60.18% in Q4 2024, reflecting a favorable mix shift toward higher-margin digital gaming and cost efficiencies. The operating margin of 27.02% in Q1 2026 is robust, though the net margin of -6.86% on a trailing basis is distorted by the prior-year loss. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32, which is elevated and indicates high leverage, but the current ratio of 1.38 suggests adequate short-term liquidity. Free cash flow remains strong, with $1.021 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, and $315.5 million in Q1 2026 alone, providing ample coverage for dividends and debt repayments. The company's ROE is negative at -59.87% due to the prior losses, but the ROA of 13.08% is positive, highlighting the underlying asset efficiency. The dividend yield of 3.38% is attractive, though the payout ratio of -121.7% is not meaningful given the trailing losses; however, the dividend appears sustainable based on cash flow.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
68.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HAS Overvalued?
Given that Hasbro's trailing net income is negative (EPS of -$0.028), the PE ratio is not meaningful, so the PS ratio is the primary metric. The current PS ratio is 2.47, while the forward PE is 13.42, suggesting that the market expects a strong earnings recovery. The gap between the trailing negative PE and the positive forward PE implies that analysts anticipate a return to profitability, with estimated EPS of $7.73 for the next fiscal year. Compared to the industry average, Hasbro's PS ratio of 2.47 is below the sector's typical range, but without a specific industry average provided, we note that the company's valuation appears reasonable relative to its growth prospects. The forward PE of 13.42 is also modest, especially considering the estimated EPS growth. The PEG ratio of 0.197 is very low, indicating that the stock may be undervalued relative to its expected growth rate. Historically, Hasbro's PS ratio has ranged from a low of 5.03 in Q4 2022 to a high of 12.56 in Q1 2026, but these figures are distorted by revenue fluctuations and the recent loss. The current PS of 2.47 is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting that the market is pricing in pessimistic expectations. However, the forward PE of 13.42 is below the historical average PE of around 15-20 when profitable, indicating potential undervaluation if earnings recover as expected. The EV/EBITDA of 61.18 is elevated due to the trailing EBITDA being depressed, but on a forward basis, it would likely normalize.
PE
-36.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 11x~33x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
61.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Hasbro faces significant financial risks stemming from its highly leveraged balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32 and interest expense of $41.8 million in Q1 2026 alone. Although free cash flow of $1.021 billion TTM provides coverage, the company's negative ROE of -59.87% and trailing net margin of -6.86% reflect the impact of prior losses. The dividend payout ratio of -121.7% is not meaningful on trailing earnings, but the 3.38% yield could be at risk if earnings do not recover as expected. Additionally, revenue concentration in the Wizards of the Coast segment ($582 million in Q1 2026) exposes the company to performance volatility in a single division. Operational risks include the recent departure of the WotC president and a cyber incident that caused delays, which could disrupt product development and erode competitive positioning. The company's ability to maintain its high gross margin (68.23%) depends on continued mix shift toward digital gaming, which may face headwinds if consumer spending weakens. Furthermore, the Consumer Products segment ($397.9 million) remains exposed to retail inventory cycles and supply chain disruptions, while the Entertainment segment is minimal at $20.3 million, offering little diversification. Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if the company fails to meet the optimistic forward EPS estimate of $7.73; the forward PE of 13.42 leaves little room for error. The stock's low beta of 0.466 reduces systematic risk but also means it may underperform in strong bull markets, and its recent 1-month relative strength of -5.21% versus SPY indicates waning momentum. Competition from digital-native gaming companies and changing consumer preferences toward digital entertainment could pressure Hasbro's traditional toy business. Regulatory risks, such as toy safety standards or data privacy concerns related to digital gaming, could increase costs. Macro sensitivity is moderate given the low beta, but a consumer discretionary slowdown could hurt sales. The worst-case scenario involves a double whammy of digital gaming deceleration and a broader economic downturn, leading to earnings misses and multiple compression. In such a scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $69.50, representing a 20.6% decline from the current price of $87.57. If analyst bear-case target of $90 is breached and sentiment sours, the downside could extend to the low $70s, implying a loss of 18-21%. The maximum drawdown over the past year was -28.39%, indicating that a similar drawdown from the current price would take the stock to around $62.70, though that is below the 52-week low and may require a severe recession.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32 and interest expense of $41.8 million per quarter could strain cash flow if earnings disappoint. Second, operational risks include the departure of the WotC president and a cyber incident that caused delays, which could hinder digital gaming growth. Third, competitive and market risks: the low beta of 0.466 may limit upside in bull markets, and recent underperformance (-5.21% relative strength vs. SPY over 1M) suggests waning momentum. Fourth, company-specific risk: revenue concentration in Wizards of the Coast ($582 million in Q1 2026) means any slowdown in that segment could significantly impact overall results. Ranked by severity, financial leverage and execution risks are highest, followed by market and competitive pressures.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: bull case (30% probability) targets $110-120, assuming successful digital gaming execution and EPS of $7.73; base case (50% probability) targets $100-110, assuming moderate growth and analyst average target of $109.64; bear case (20% probability) targets $70-90, assuming digital gaming slowdown and retest of 52-week low of $69.50. The most likely scenario is the base case, with a key assumption that revenue grows 5-7% and gross margins remain above 68%. The wide target range reflects uncertainty, but the skew toward the upside is supported by the strong_buy consensus and attractive forward valuation.
HAS appears undervalued on a forward basis, with a forward PE of 13.42 and a PEG ratio of 0.197, both well below typical market and historical averages. The PS ratio of 2.47 is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting pessimism is priced in. The market is paying a discount relative to the company's earnings recovery potential, as implied by the estimated EPS of $7.73 for next fiscal year. However, the trailing metrics are distorted by prior losses, and the EV/EBITDA of 61.18 is elevated due to depressed trailing EBITDA. If the company meets estimates, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the current valuation may prove fair or even optimistic.
From a risk/reward perspective, HAS offers a favorable setup with 25.2% upside to the analyst average target of $109.64, supported by a strong_buy consensus from 14 analysts. The forward PE of 13.42 and PEG of 0.197 suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, while the 3.38% dividend yield provides income. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32 and recent 6.17% one-month decline highlight risks. It is a good buy for investors with a medium risk tolerance and a 12-18 month horizon who believe in the digital gaming turnaround. Those seeking low volatility may appreciate the 0.466 beta, but should be aware of execution risks.
HAS is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 12-18 months) given its turnaround nature, low beta of 0.466, and dividend yield of 3.38%. The company is in a growth stage with digital gaming expansion, but earnings visibility is moderate due to recent losses and operational disruptions. Short-term trading could be risky due to the stock's recent 6.17% one-month decline and choppy technicals, with support at $69.50 and resistance at $106.98. Long-term investors can benefit from the digital gaming secular trend and potential multiple expansion as earnings recover. A suggested holding period of at least one year allows time for the turnaround to materialize and for the dividend to compound.

