Hasbro
HAS
$84.13
+0.30%
Hasbro, Inc. is a global branded play and entertainment company operating in the consumer cyclical sector, specifically within the leisure industry. Its core business involves creating and marketing toys, games, and entertainment experiences based on a world-class portfolio of intellectual properties, including Transformers, Peppa Pig, Magic: The Gathering, and Dungeons & Dragons. The company is a market leader in toys and games, distinct for its strategy of leveraging its iconic brands across multiple platforms, including digital tabletop gaming through its Dungeons & Dragons Beyond acquisition. The current investor narrative is centered on a potential turnaround story, driven by a focus on its core brands and margin improvement following the divestiture of non-core assets like eOne's entertainment lines, though recent performance has been volatile, marked by a significant cyber incident that caused operational delays but was overshadowed by better-than-expected Q1 2026 results.…
HAS
Hasbro
$84.13
Related headlines
HAS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hasbro's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $109.37 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$109.37
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$67 - $109
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Hasbro is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery typical for companies in transition. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like UBS, Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Buy' or 'Overweight' stances throughout early 2026. The average estimated EPS for the next period is $7.63, with a range from $7.25 to $8.01, and the average estimated revenue is $5.911 billion. Insufficient data is available to calculate a precise consensus price target or implied upside/downside from the current price of $86.17. The lack of a published target price range from the provided data signals high uncertainty, as analysts are likely reassessing models following the company's restructuring, cyber incident, and volatile quarterly results. A wide target spread would be expected, with high targets banking on successful execution of the brand-focused strategy and debt reduction, while low targets would factor in persistent operational challenges and balance sheet risks.
Bulls vs Bears: HAS Investment Factors
The evidence presents a classic high-risk, high-reward turnaround story. The bull case is anchored in strong brand value, a deeply discounted valuation, and early signs of revenue recovery with robust cash flow. The bear case is dominated by an unsustainable debt load, inconsistent profitability, and severe recent technical breakdown. Currently, the bearish evidence holds stronger weight due to the concrete, quantifiable risks of the high leverage and negative profitability metrics, which pose an existential threat if the recovery falters. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's strong free cash flow and brand portfolio can sustainably service its massive debt and return to consistent net profitability before any external shock or internal misstep triggers a liquidity crisis.
Bullish
- Strong Q4 Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 31.25% YoY to $1.446B, signaling a potential stabilization and recovery after a volatile restructuring period. This robust growth, highlighted by recent positive news, suggests the core brand-focused strategy is gaining traction.
- Exceptional Gross Margin Profile: The company maintains a robust gross margin of 70.26%, which is strong for the consumer cyclical sector. This high-margin structure provides significant operating leverage if revenue growth is sustained, supporting future profitability.
- Significant Free Cash Flow Generation: Hasbro generated substantial TTM free cash flow of $829.9 million. This strong cash generation provides the company with crucial liquidity to service its high debt load and fund operations during its turnaround.
- Deeply Discounted Valuation vs. History: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 2.47x, which is near the bottom of its historical range (previously 5.38x to 12x). This suggests the market has already priced in significant pessimism, offering a wide margin of safety for a successful turnaround.
Bearish
- Extremely High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio is alarmingly high at 6.32, indicating significant balance sheet risk. This leverage magnifies operational risks and could constrain strategic flexibility, especially in a higher interest rate environment.
- Inconsistent and Negative Profitability: Trailing twelve-month EPS is negative at -$0.028, and the net margin is -6.86%, despite a strong gross margin. The negative ROE of -59.87% underscores severe inefficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity.
- Severe Recent Underperformance: The stock has shown severe negative relative strength, down 8.35% over 1 month and 13.48% over 3 months, starkly underperforming the S&P 500's gains of 6.31% and 10.28%. This indicates strong selling pressure and a breakdown in momentum.
- Volatile and Unpredictable Quarterly Results: Revenue has been highly volatile, with Q2 2025 dropping to $980.8M before the Q4 surge. This pattern, coupled with a recent cyber incident, creates significant earnings visibility risk and makes forecasting difficult.
HAS Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Hasbro shows a strong recovery from its 52-week lows but has recently entered a significant correction phase. The stock's 1-year price change of 28.997% indicates a substantial uptrend over that period, but it is currently trading at approximately 80.5% of its 52-week range ($86.17 vs. a high of $106.98 and low of $64.85), suggesting it has retreated meaningfully from its recent highs, signaling potential exhaustion of the prior bullish momentum and increased volatility. The stock has underperformed the broader market significantly in the short term, with a 1-month decline of 8.3493% and a 3-month decline of 13.4752%, starkly contrasting the S&P 500's gains of 6.31% and 10.28% over the same periods, respectively, indicating severe negative relative strength and a sharp deceleration in momentum. Key technical support lies at the 52-week low area near $64.85, while immediate resistance is at the recent 52-week high of $106.98; a break below the recent May low near $86 could signal a test of lower support levels, whereas reclaiming the $100 level would be necessary to re-establish bullish momentum. With a beta of 0.517, Hasbro exhibits roughly half the volatility of the broader market, which suggests it has been a defensive holding but has recently experienced idiosyncratic, company-specific selling pressure independent of general market movements.
Beta
0.52
0.52x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$65-$107
Price range past year
Annual Return
+28.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HAS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.5% | +5.0% |
| 3m | -11.8% | +10.7% |
| 6m | +3.7% | +10.0% |
| 1y | +28.1% | +26.5% |
| ytd | +1.4% | +10.6% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HAS Fundamental Analysis
Hasbro's revenue trajectory shows signs of stabilization and growth after a period of restructuring, with the most recent quarterly revenue for Q4 2025 reaching $1.446 billion, representing a significant 31.25% year-over-year growth from the $1.102 billion in Q4 2024. This growth, however, follows a volatile pattern across 2025, with Q2 revenue dropping to $980.8 million, indicating the underlying business is still in transition as it sheds non-core assets. Profitability has been inconsistent, swinging from a net loss of $34.3 million in Q4 2024 to a net income of $201.6 million in Q4 2025, yet the trailing twelve-month EPS is negative at -$0.028, reflecting the impact of earlier quarterly losses. The company maintains a robust gross margin of 70.26% (based on the latest valuation data), which is strong for the industry, but operating profitability is pressured, with an operating margin of 22.5% and a net margin of -6.86%, highlighting the challenge of converting high gross profit into consistent bottom-line results. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed; the company generated substantial free cash flow of $829.9 million TTM and has a current ratio of 1.38, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is alarmingly high at 6.32, signaling significant financial leverage and risk, though the strong free cash flow generation provides some capacity to service this debt. The negative Return on Equity (ROE) of -59.87% further underscores the inefficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity amid the high debt load.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.31%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.68%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$829899999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HAS Overvalued?
Given Hasbro's negative trailing net income and EPS, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 2.47x and a forward PS ratio implied by analyst revenue estimates is approximately 1.96x (based on a $11.6B market cap and $5.911B estimated revenue), suggesting the market anticipates revenue growth and/or margin expansion. Compared to its own historical PS ratio, which has ranged from approximately 5.38x to over 12x over the past several years, the current multiple of 2.47x is near the bottom of its historical band, indicating the stock is valued much more conservatively than in recent history, potentially reflecting a reset in expectations post-restructuring and high debt concerns. The EV/EBITDA multiple is extremely elevated at 61.18x, which is not a reliable metric due to the volatility in EBITDA; the more stable EV/Sales ratio of 3.07x provides a cleaner enterprise-level view. The forward P/E ratio of 13.4x, based on estimated EPS of $7.63, suggests the market is pricing in a return to normalized profitability, but the wide gap between the negative trailing P/E and positive forward P/E underscores the expectation of a significant earnings recovery in the coming year.
PE
-36.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -138x~48x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
61.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe, primarily centered on the company's leveraged balance sheet. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32, Hasbro's financial structure is precarious. While TTM free cash flow of $829.9 million provides a near-term buffer, any sustained downturn in revenue or margin compression could quickly erode its ability to service debt. Profitability is another critical risk; the negative net margin of -6.86% and negative ROE of -59.87% indicate the core business is currently destroying shareholder value, making it dependent on a successful and timely margin expansion from its 70.26% gross margin level to justify its forward valuation.
Market & Competitive Risks include valuation compression and sector sensitivity. Trading at a forward P/E of 13.4x, the market is pricing in a full earnings recovery (EPS $7.63). Any disappointment could lead to significant multiple contraction, especially given the stock's recent 13.5% 3-month decline against a strong market. As a consumer cyclical stock with a beta of 0.52, it is less volatile than the market but remains exposed to discretionary spending cuts. Competitive risks are evergreen in toys and entertainment, requiring constant brand reinvestment, which is challenged by the high debt burden.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to achieve forecasted profitability, leading to a credit rating downgrade, increased borrowing costs, and a potential liquidity crunch. This could be triggered by a holiday season sales miss or further operational disruptions. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically retest its 52-week low of $64.85, representing a downside of approximately -25% from the current price of $86.17. The recent max drawdown of -18.66% shows the stock is capable of such moves, and a breach of the May low near $86 could accelerate a decline toward this level.