HCA

HCA Healthcare

$429.19

+5.64%
Aug 21, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is the largest operator of acute-care hospitals in the United States, owning and managing 190 hospitals and over 2,500 outpatient facilities across 19 states and the UK. As a dominant player in the healthcare facilities industry, HCA benefits from scale, geographic diversification, and a strong brand in hospital operations. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate regulatory headwinds and policy uncertainty while capitalizing on demographic tailwinds from an aging population, with recent earnings showing solid growth and operational resilience despite a challenging reimbursement environment.

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HCA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $429.19
Average Target $429.19
High Target $493.57
Low Target $364.81

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on HCA Healthcare's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $451.48 and implied upside of +5.2% versus the current price.

Average Target

$451.48

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+5.2%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$380 - $579

Analyst target range

HCA is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.0 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $451.48, implying an upside of 5.2% from the current price of $429.19. The distribution is bullish, with no Sell ratings and a majority of Buy/Overweight ratings. The target price range is $380.00 to $579.00, with the low target suggesting a 11.5% downside and the high target implying a 34.9% upside. The wide spread of $199 indicates significant uncertainty about HCA's future performance. Recent ratings actions show a mix of reaffirmations and one downgrade (Barclays from Overweight to Equal Weight in July 2026), but overall sentiment remains positive. The high target likely assumes continued operational efficiency and successful navigation of regulatory changes, while the low target reflects concerns about reimbursement cuts and rising labor costs.

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HCA Technical Analysis

HCA's stock has experienced a volatile year, with a 1-year price change of +6.17%, but the current price of $429.19 sits at 77.3% of its 52-week range (low $353.99, high $556.52). This positioning suggests the stock is in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, having fallen 33.72% from its high earlier in the year. The price is above the 52-week low but well below the high, indicating potential for further upside if momentum continues, though it also reflects lingering bearish sentiment from the earlier decline.

Beta

1.11

1.11x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-33.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$354-$557

Price range past year

Annual Return

+6.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHCA ReturnS&P 500
1m+15.4%+3.6%
3m+8.9%+2.7%
6m-19.4%+11.4%
1y+6.2%+18.7%
ytd-8.8%+12.3%

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HCA Fundamental Analysis

HCA's revenue trajectory remains positive, with Q1 2026 revenue of $19.109 billion, up 4.3% year-over-year, and consistent sequential growth from $18.605 billion in Q2 2025. The company's growth is driven by strong demand for healthcare services, particularly in managed care and Medicare segments, which together account for over 60% of revenue. However, growth has moderated from the double-digit rates seen in 2022-2023, reflecting a more normalized post-pandemic environment. The company's profitability is solid, with Q1 2026 net income of $1.62 billion and a net margin of 8.48%, though this is down from the 9.62% margin in Q4 2025 due to higher operating costs. Gross margin in Q1 2026 was 14.98%, significantly lower than the 41.9% in Q4 2025, likely due to seasonal and cost factors, but operating margin remained healthy at 15.0%. HCA's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -8.33 (negative equity due to buybacks), and debt ratio of 81.1%, indicating high financial risk. However, the company generates strong free cash flow of $7.927 billion TTM, which supports its aggressive share repurchase program and dividend payments, with a payout ratio of 10.0% and a dividend yield of 0.63%.

Quarterly Revenue

$19.1B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+4.3%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

15.0%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$7.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

International
Managed Care And Other Insurers
Managed Medicaid
Managed Medicare
Medicaid
Medicare

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Valuation Analysis: Is HCA Overvalued?

Given HCA's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 16.31x, while the forward PE is 13.37x, indicating the market expects earnings growth of about 22% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about future profitability, supported by analyst EPS estimates of $44.81 for the current year. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), HCA trades at a 26% discount, which is notable given its market leadership and consistent cash flow generation. This discount may reflect concerns about regulatory risks and the company's high debt load. Historically, HCA's PE has ranged from 8.0x to 20.6x over the past five years, with the current 16.31x near the upper end, indicating the stock is not cheap relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of 0.57 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, but this is based on forward estimates that may be optimistic.

PE

16.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 8x~17x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple