HSIC

Henry Schein

$0.00

-0.06%
Jun 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Henry Schein Inc is a leading solutions company for healthcare professionals, operating primarily in the medical and dental distribution industry by providing equipment, products, and services to office-based practitioners and alternative care sites. The company is a dominant market leader in healthcare distribution, distinguished by its extensive global supply chain, value-added services like financial and consulting support, and its three-pronged business model encompassing distribution, specialty products, and technology. The current investor narrative revolves around the company's post-cyberattack recovery trajectory, its ability to sustain growth in its core distribution segment while expanding higher-margin technology and specialty services, and navigating the competitive pressures and margin dynamics inherent in the low-margin distribution business.

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HSIC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $79.92
Average Target $79.92
High Target $91.908
Low Target $67.932

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Henry Schein's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

5 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for HSIC is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap distribution company. The consensus sentiment, inferred from the institutional ratings, appears mixed but leans slightly positive; of the 10 recent ratings listed, there are 4 Outperform/Overweight ratings, 5 Neutral/Market Perform/Equal Weight ratings, and 1 Underweight rating. No average target price is provided in the data, so the implied upside cannot be calculated. The range of analyst estimates shows moderate uncertainty; the estimated EPS for the coming period ranges from a low of $6.70 to a high of $6.81, a very tight spread of about 1.7%, indicating strong consensus on the near-term earnings power. Similarly, revenue estimates range from $15.25B to $15.46B. The recent institutional actions show stability, with most firms reiterating their ratings in late February 2026 following earnings, except for Baird which upgraded from Neutral to Outperform on February 23rd, a positive signal. The limited number of covering analysts can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility based on company-specific news.

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Bulls vs Bears: HSIC Investment Factors

The evidence for HSIC presents a balanced but cautiously optimistic picture. The bull case is stronger on valuation and cash flow grounds, anchored by a reasonable forward P/E of 13.74x and robust $561M in TTM free cash flow, which supports financial stability. The bear case highlights valuation risk, with the stock trading at a trailing P/E of 23.11x near its historical peak, pricing in a significant earnings recovery that must materialize. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company can deliver the earnings growth implied by the large gap between its trailing and forward P/E multiples. If HSIC meets or exceeds the $6.74 forward EPS estimate, the stock could re-rate higher. If earnings falter, the current premium trailing multiple creates substantial downside risk.

Bullish

  • Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generates robust free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $561 million. This provides significant financial flexibility for shareholder returns, debt reduction, and strategic investments, supporting a stable financial profile.
  • Attractive Forward Valuation: HSIC trades at a forward P/E of 13.74x based on analyst EPS estimates of $6.74. This represents a significant discount to the trailing P/E of 23.11x, implying the market expects strong earnings growth and recovery, offering a reasonable entry point.
  • Positive Technical Momentum: The stock has surged 16.99% over the past month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.08%). It is trading near multi-month highs, having rallied powerfully from its May low of $68.99, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment.
  • Stable, Profitable Core Business: The company maintains consistent profitability with a net margin of 2.94% and a gross margin of 28.92% in the latest quarter. Sequential revenue growth from $3.168B to $3.437B over the last four quarters demonstrates steady, reliable expansion in its core distribution segment.

Bearish

  • High Trailing P/E at Peak of Range: The trailing P/E of 23.11x is near the top of its two-year historical range (14.57x - 26.13x). This suggests optimistic expectations are already priced in, leaving little room for multiple expansion and increasing downside risk if earnings disappoint.
  • Low-Margin, Competitive Business Model: Operating in a low-margin distribution industry, the company's operating margin was 5.41% last quarter. This inherent margin pressure limits profitability upside and makes the business susceptible to competitive pricing and cost inflation.
  • Modest Revenue Growth Trajectory: Year-over-year revenue growth of 7.71% is positive but modest, especially for a stock trading at a premium trailing multiple. The business is mature, with the higher-growth Technology segment contributing only $221M, a small fraction of total revenue.
  • Elevated Debt Load: The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 indicates the company carries more debt than equity. While manageable given stable cash flows, this leverage increases financial risk in a rising interest rate environment or during an economic downturn.

HSIC Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 14.31% 1-year price change. Currently trading at $81.25, it sits approximately 61% of the way up from its 52-week low of $61.95 towards its high of $89.29, indicating it has recovered significantly from its lows but still has room before testing major resistance, suggesting a balanced position between momentum and potential overhead supply. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong and diverging positively from the longer-term trend, with a 16.99% surge over the past month and a 7.52% gain over three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 which was down -0.08% and up 12.0% over the same periods, respectively, as shown by relative strength figures of +17.07 and -4.48. The stock's key technical levels are clearly defined by its 52-week range, with major support at the $61.95 low and immediate resistance at the $89.29 high. A decisive breakout above $89.29 would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend and likely attract further buying, while a breakdown below the recent May low near $69 could indicate the recent rally is failing. With a beta of 0.824, the stock exhibits approximately 18% less volatility than the broader market, which is characteristic of a stable, mature distribution business and implies lower systematic risk for investors. Volume and momentum indicators support the bullish near-term thesis, with the stock closing at a multi-month high of $81.25 on June 12th, following a powerful rally from the $68.99 low hit in mid-May. The 1-month price change of 16.99% is the strongest momentum reading in the provided dataset, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment or a reaction to fundamental catalysts. The stock's ability to hold above the $76 level, which acted as resistance in April, now turns it into a support zone for any pullbacks.

Beta

0.82

0.82x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-17.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$62-$89

Price range past year

Annual Return

+12.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHSIC ReturnS&P 500
1m+9.6%+0.7%
3m+10.6%+15.1%
6m+3.3%+9.7%
1y+12.4%+25.0%
ytd+4.0%+9.5%

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HSIC Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is positive but modest, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $3.437 billion representing a 7.71% year-over-year increase. Examining the sequential quarterly trend from the income statement, revenue has grown from $3.168B in Q1 2025 to $3.437B in Q4 2025, indicating steady, incremental expansion. The primary driver is the Global Distribution segment, which constitutes the vast majority of sales, as seen in the segment data where Healthcare Distribution revenue was $2.953B; the smaller Technology segment at $221M offers a higher-growth avenue but remains a minor contributor. The company is profitable, with net income of $101 million in the latest quarter, translating to a net margin of 2.94%. Gross margin for the quarter was 28.92%, which is consistent with the trailing twelve-month gross margin of 29.14% from the valuation data, indicating stable pricing and cost management in a low-margin distribution business. Operating margin was 5.41% for the quarter, slightly below the TTM operating margin of 5.75%, suggesting some quarterly variability but overall maintained profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14, indicating more debt than equity but at a manageable level for a stable cash-flow business. Financial health is supported by strong free cash flow generation, with TTM free cash flow of $561 million and a current ratio of 1.38, demonstrating ample liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Return on equity is a respectable 12.27%, and the company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and shareholder returns, as evidenced by consistent stock repurchase activity in the cash flow statements.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.07%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.28%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$561000000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Healthcare Distribution
Technology

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Valuation Analysis: Is HSIC Overvalued?

Given that Net Income is positive ($101M), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 23.11x, which is significantly higher than its forward PE of 13.74x, implying the market expects a substantial recovery and growth in earnings over the next twelve months, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $6.74. Compared to sector averages, the valuation presents a mixed picture; the Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.70x is low, typical for a low-margin distribution business, suggesting the market is not assigning a premium for its revenue base. However, the forward PE of 13.74x must be contextualized against industry peers, though specific industry average multiples are not provided in the data. The EV/EBITDA of 12.65x offers another angle, indicating the company's enterprise value relative to its operating cash flow. Historically, the current trailing PE of 23.11x is towards the higher end of its recent range, as seen in the historical ratios where the PE fluctuated between approximately 14.57x and 26.13x over the past two years. Trading near the top of this band suggests the market has priced in optimistic expectations for the earnings recovery and growth trajectory, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing the importance of the company meeting or exceeding its forward EPS targets.

PE

23.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 15x~136x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: HSIC faces risks inherent to its low-margin distribution business, where a net margin of 2.94% offers little buffer against cost inflation or competitive pricing pressures. The company carries moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14, which, while manageable, increases interest expense sensitivity. Revenue concentration in the mature Global Distribution segment, which drove $2.953B of the latest quarter's $3.437B sales, creates dependence on steady but modest growth, with the higher-margin Technology segment remaining too small to materially shift the profit profile.

Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 23.11x, near the top of its two-year range, the stock is vulnerable to derating if growth expectations are not met, especially in a higher interest rate environment that pressures equity multiples. Competitive disruption from larger distributors or direct-to-proviver sales models could further squeeze already thin gross margins of 28.92%. The stock's beta of 0.824 indicates lower market correlation, which can be a risk during broad market rallies as it may underperform.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of an economic slowdown reducing dental/medical office spending, coupled with a failure to achieve forward EPS targets, triggering multiple compression. This could lead analysts to downgrade estimates and the stock to re-rate towards the lower end of its historical P/E range. A realistic downside could see the stock retreat to its 52-week low of $61.95, representing a potential loss of approximately -24% from the current price of $81.25. A break below the recent May low of $68.99 (-15% downside) would signal this adverse scenario is unfolding.