MCK

McKesson Corporation

$0.00

-3.74%
Jun 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
McKesson Corporation is a dominant player in the healthcare industry, operating as one of the three leading pharmaceutical wholesalers in the United States. Its core business involves sourcing and distributing branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to a vast network of pharmacies, hospitals, and healthcare providers, and it also supplies medical-surgical products and provides pharmacy technology solutions. The company holds a formidable market position, collectively accounting for over 90% of the US pharmaceutical wholesale market alongside Cencora and Cardinal Health, which grants it significant scale and pricing power. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's ability to navigate a complex regulatory and reimbursement environment while leveraging its scale to drive growth in higher-margin segments like oncology and technology solutions, as evidenced by its recent quarterly revenue growth of 11.4% year-over-year.

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MCK 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $750.63
Average Target $750.63
High Target $863.2244999999999
Low Target $638.0355

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on McKesson Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.

Average Target

$0.00

7 analysts

Implied Upside

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$0 - $0

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

McKesson is covered by 7 analysts, indicating solid institutional interest for a large-cap company. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like Barclays, JP Morgan, TD Cowen, Baird, UBS, and Morgan Stanley maintaining 'Overweight', 'Buy', or 'Outperform' ratings, while Mizuho and Wells Fargo hold 'Neutral' or 'Equal Weight' stances. The average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $78.63 and a forward PE of 15.57x suggests a consensus target near $1,224, which would imply substantial upside of approximately 56% from the current price of $784.05, signaling strong analyst conviction in a recovery. The target range, derived from estimated EPS, spans from a low of $76.74 to a high of $80.83. Applying the forward PE multiple, this translates to a price target range of roughly $1,195 to $1,259. The high target likely assumes successful execution on growth initiatives in oncology and technology solutions, margin stability, and a re-rating of the stock multiple. The low target may factor in risks such as reimbursement pressures, competitive threats, or broader supply chain disruptions. The relatively tight range in EPS estimates suggests analysts have a firm handle on near-term earnings, but the wide implied price upside reflects significant uncertainty around the appropriate valuation multiple in the current market environment.

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Bulls vs Bears: MCK Investment Factors

Overall, MCK has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Bullish

  • Strong Revenue Growth and Scale: McKesson's Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 11.4% YoY to $106.16B, demonstrating robust demand and its essential role in the pharmaceutical supply chain. The company, part of a triopoly controlling over 90% of the US wholesale market, benefits from immense scale and pricing power, which supports consistent top-line expansion.
  • Attractive Valuation and PEG Ratio: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 15.57x, a significant discount to its trailing P/E of 22.46x, implying expected earnings growth. With a PEG ratio of 0.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its growth rate, suggesting potential for multiple expansion if growth is sustained.

Bearish

    MCK Technical Analysis

    The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, trading at the lower end of its 52-week range. With a current price of $784.05, it sits approximately 21.5% below its 52-week high of $999 and only 23.1% above its 52-week low of $637, positioning it in the lower quartile of its annual range, which suggests potential oversold conditions but also reflects significant negative momentum and investor concern. The 1-year price change of +7.29% masks severe recent weakness, as the stock has declined -16.67% over the past 3 months and -3.66% over the past 6 months, indicating a sharp reversal from earlier strength. This divergence is stark when compared to the S&P 500, which gained 12.0% and 8.8% over the same 3-month and 6-month periods, respectively, highlighting MCK's significant underperformance and negative relative strength of -28.67% over three months. Recent momentum shows a tentative stabilization but remains fragile, with the stock up 6.36% over the past month, which could signal a potential relief rally or bottoming attempt after the steep Q2 2026 decline. However, this short-term bounce has not yet challenged the dominant downtrend established since the March peak near $995. The stock's beta of 0.315 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, which has not insulated it from a severe drawdown, with a maximum drawdown of -27.17% from its peak. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with major resistance at the 52-week high of $999 and immediate support at the 52-week low of $637. A decisive break below the $637 support would signal a continuation of the bearish trend and potentially open the door to further declines. Conversely, a sustained move above the recent local high near $790 (from early June) would be the first step towards challenging heavier resistance in the $860-$880 zone. The stock's low beta suggests its moves are less dramatic than the market on a daily basis, but the recent drawdown underscores that low-beta stocks can still experience significant corrections during sector-specific or company-specific headwinds.

    Beta

    0.32

    0.32x market volatility

    Max Drawdown

    -27.2%

    Largest decline past year

    52-Week Range

    $637-$999

    Price range past year

    Annual Return

    +3.0%

    Cumulative gain past year

    PeriodMCK ReturnS&P 500
    1m-1.5%+0.7%
    3m-15.3%+15.1%
    6m-8.5%+9.7%
    1y+3.0%+25.0%
    ytd-8.8%+9.5%

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    MCK Fundamental Analysis

    McKesson's revenue trajectory remains robust, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q3 FY2026) reaching $106.16 billion, representing an 11.4% year-over-year growth. This continues a multi-quarter trend of solid top-line expansion, as revenue has grown sequentially from $76.36B in Q4 FY2024 to over $106B in the latest quarter. The growth is primarily driven by its massive North American Pharmaceutical Segment, which contributed $88.32B in the latest period, alongside strong contributions from the Oncology and Multispecialty Segment at $13.01B. This consistent revenue growth underscores the company's essential role in the pharmaceutical supply chain and its ability to capitalize on volume trends. Profitability is stable but operates on razor-thin margins characteristic of the distribution industry. The company reported net income of $1.19B for Q3 FY2026, with a net margin of 1.12%. Gross margin for the quarter was 3.47%, consistent with the low-margin wholesale model. Operating margin was 1.53%, showing slight expansion from 1.14% in the prior-year quarter. While absolute profits are substantial due to the enormous revenue base, margin expansion is limited, and the business model is highly sensitive to operating efficiency and scale to preserve profitability. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of distribution. The company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $10.1 billion, indicating strong cash conversion from operations. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is reported at -3.97, which is an artifact of negative shareholder equity common in this sector due to large share buybacks; a more telling metric is the current ratio of 0.85, which suggests potential liquidity constraints with current assets not fully covering current liabilities. Return on Equity is deeply negative at -2.19, again distorted by the equity structure, while Return on Assets is a more meaningful 4.99%, indicating efficient use of assets to generate earnings.

    Quarterly Revenue

    $106.2B

    2025-12

    Revenue YoY Growth

    +0.11%

    YoY Comparison

    Gross Margin

    +0.03%

    Latest Quarter

    Free Cash Flow

    $10.1B

    Last 12 Months

    Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

    Revenue Breakdown

    Medical-Surgical Solutions Segment
    North American Pharmaceutical Segment
    Oncology And Multispecialty Segment
    Prescription Technology Solutions Segment
    Segment Reporting, Reconciling Item, Excluding Corporate Nonsegment

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    Valuation Analysis: Is MCK Overvalued?

    Given McKesson's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.46x, while the forward PE is lower at 15.57x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The forward PE discount to the trailing multiple suggests analysts are forecasting improved profitability, likely driven by continued revenue growth and operational efficiency. Compared to industry averages, McKesson's valuation appears modest. Its trailing PE of 22.46x is likely at or slightly below the average for the Medical Distribution industry, which typically trades at lower multiples due to its low-margin, high-volume business model. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.27x and EV/Sales of 0.25x are extremely low, reflecting the industry's thin margins. The PEG ratio of 0.46, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, if that growth is sustainable. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed significantly. The current trailing PE of 22.46x is below the 29.19x seen in Q1 FY2026 and the 21.58x from Q2 FY2026, indicating multiple contraction amidst the price decline. The stock traded at a PE as high as 66.0x in Q2 FY2025 during a period of lower earnings. Trading near the lower end of its recent historical PE range suggests the market has priced in concerns, potentially offering a value opportunity if the fundamental growth story remains intact, but it also reflects diminished expectations.

    PE

    22.5x

    Latest Quarter

    vs. Historical

    High-End

    5-Year PE Range -1346x~66x

    vs. Industry Avg

    N/A

    Industry PE ~N/A*

    EV/EBITDA

    15.5x

    Enterprise Value Multiple