Macerich
MAC
$23.42
-0.43%
The Macerich Company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a portfolio of premium regional malls and other retail properties across the United States, with 27 consolidated and 10 unconsolidated malls totaling 39.2 million square feet. As a leading owner of Class A shopping centers, Macerich differentiates itself through its focus on high-quality, high-productivity assets, achieving average sales of $899 per square foot. The current investor narrative centers on the company's recovery and growth prospects, driven by strong tenant demand and operational improvements, while also grappling with the challenges of a dilutive common stock offering announced in June 2026 and the broader structural headwinds facing the retail real estate sector.…
MAC
Macerich
$23.42
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy MAC Today?
Based on the data, I rate MAC as a Hold. The stock has strong momentum and a premium portfolio, but the extreme valuation and high leverage limit upside potential. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $26.19, implying 11.5% upside, but the risk-reward is balanced given the uncertainties.
Supporting evidence includes the 38.1% 1-year price gain, the forward EPS estimate of $0.42, and the gross margin of 38.2%. However, the forward PE of 587x and PS ratio of 4.67x (56% above industry) suggest the market is pricing in a perfect recovery. The stock's beta of 2.07 adds volatility, and the recent stock offering creates dilution overhang. The dividend yield of 3.97% provides some income, but the payout ratio is negative, indicating the dividend may not be fully covered by earnings.
The biggest risks are the failure to achieve the expected EPS turnaround, further dilution from stock offerings, and a retail sector downturn. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the forward PE compresses below 20x (e.g., if the stock drops to around $8.40 on current estimates) or if revenue growth accelerates above 10% with improving margins. Conversely, it would downgrade to Sell if the company misses EPS estimates or if the stock offering is larger than expected. Overall, MAC is overvalued relative to its history and peers, but the premium may be justified by its high-quality assets and recovery potential.
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MAC 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While the stock has strong momentum and analyst support, the extreme valuation and negative profitability create significant risk. The forward PE of 587x implies the market expects a flawless turnaround, which may not materialize. The recent 7.5% drop on August 6, 2026, highlights the stock's sensitivity to news. I would upgrade to bullish if the company reports positive EPS earlier than expected or if the stock corrects to a more reasonable valuation (e.g., PS below 3.5x). Conversely, a downgrade to bearish would occur if the company announces further dilution or misses revenue estimates.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Macerich's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.06 and implied upside of +15.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.06
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$21 - $30
Analyst target range
Macerich is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.06 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average price target is $26.19, implying an upside of 11.5% from the current price of $23.49. The target range spans from $19.00 (low) to $30.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a 27.7% upside, reflecting optimism about a full recovery in mall traffic and rent growth, while the low target implies a 19.1% downside, accounting for potential dilution from the recent stock offering and continued retail headwinds. The relatively wide spread between the low and high targets indicates significant uncertainty about the pace of the recovery, but the overall bullish consensus suggests analysts see more upside than downside.
Bulls vs Bears: MAC Investment Factors
Macerich presents a compelling recovery story with strong momentum, a premium mall portfolio, and analyst optimism, but it is tempered by a dilutive offering, extreme valuation, and high leverage. The bull case is supported by the stock's 38% 1-year gain and consensus buy rating, while the bear case highlights the 587x forward PE and negative margins. The most critical tension is whether the anticipated earnings turnaround (EPS from -$0.04 to $0.42) can justify the premium valuation, or if the stock is overpriced relative to its growth prospects. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the operational improvements and analyst targets, but the risk is elevated.
Bullish
- Strong 1-Year Price Performance: MAC has surged 38.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 21.5% gain. This demonstrates strong investor confidence and momentum, reflecting successful operational improvements and a recovering retail environment.
- High-Quality Mall Portfolio: Macerich's portfolio averages $899 in sales per square foot, a key indicator of premium asset quality. This high productivity attracts top-tier tenants and supports resilient rental income, justifying a premium valuation.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside: With 16 analysts, the consensus is 'buy' (mean score 2.06) and the average price target is $26.19, implying 11.5% upside from the current price of $23.49. The high target of $30 suggests potential 27.7% upside, reflecting optimism about recovery.
- Positive Forward Earnings Expectations: Analysts expect EPS to turn positive at $0.42 in the forward year, a significant improvement from the trailing EPS of -$0.04. This anticipated turnaround is a key driver for the stock's re-rating.
Bearish
- Dilutive Stock Offering: In June 2026, Macerich announced a public offering of common stock, which dilutes existing shareholders. This capital raise, while potentially funding growth, pressures EPS and could signal a need for cash, weighing on the stock.
- Extremely High Valuation: The forward PE of 587.25x is extraordinarily high, and the PS ratio of 4.67x is 56% above the industry average of ~3.0x. This premium valuation leaves little room for error and increases downside risk if growth disappoints.
- Negative Profitability: Macerich's net margin is -19.4% and trailing EPS is -$0.04, indicating ongoing losses. While a turnaround is expected, the current lack of profitability makes the stock risky and dependent on execution.
- High Debt Levels: The debt-to-equity ratio is 2.12, indicating significant leverage. High debt increases financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, and could constrain flexibility.
MAC Technical Analysis
Macerich's stock has demonstrated a robust long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +38.1%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.5% over the same period. The current price of $23.49 sits at 88% of the 52-week range (between $16.03 and $26.68), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 2.07 implies it is more than twice as volatile as the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
2.07
2.07x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$27
Price range past year
Annual Return
+29.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MAC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.5% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +0.9% | +1.1% |
| 6m | +24.6% | +13.8% |
| 1y | +29.2% | +19.5% |
| ytd | +26.5% | +12.2% |
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MAC Fundamental Analysis
Macerich's revenue trajectory is stable, with estimated revenue of $1.25 billion for the current year, though specific quarterly figures are not available. The company's gross margin stands at 38.2%, reflecting the high-margin nature of its mall operations, but its net margin is deeply negative at -19.4%, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The negative EPS of -$0.04 and a net loss highlight that the company is not yet profitable on a trailing basis, though the market expects a turnaround with estimated EPS of $0.42 for the forward year.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is MAC Overvalued?
Given the negative trailing net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, currently at 4.67x, which is elevated compared to typical retail REITs. The forward PE of 587.25x is extremely high, reflecting the market's expectation of a sharp earnings recovery, but the PEG ratio of 9.47x suggests that the stock is expensive relative to its growth prospects. Compared to the industry average PS ratio of approximately 3.0x, Macerich trades at a 56% premium, which may be justified by its premium asset quality and higher sales per square foot.
PE
-24.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
24.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial: Macerich carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12, indicating heavy leverage that could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or if rental income declines. The company's net margin is deeply negative at -19.4%, and trailing EPS is -$0.04, reflecting ongoing losses that require a successful turnaround to avoid further deterioration. The recent stock offering dilutes shareholders, potentially reducing EPS accretion and signaling a need for capital, which could pressure the stock if the market perceives it as a sign of financial weakness. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.09 is extremely low, suggesting potential liquidity concerns, though REITs often rely on asset sales and refinancing rather than current assets.
Market and competitive risks are equally significant. The stock trades at a forward PE of 587x and a PS ratio of 4.67x, a 56% premium to the industry average, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth fails to meet expectations. The retail real estate sector faces structural headwinds from e-commerce, and any slowdown in consumer spending or mall traffic could hurt occupancy and rents. With a beta of 2.07, MAC is highly sensitive to market swings, and the recent 7.5% drop on August 6, 2026, highlights its volatility. The stock offering adds overhang, and if the retail sector weakens, the premium valuation could unwind quickly.
In a worst-case scenario, a combination of continued losses, rising interest rates, and a retail downturn could force Macerich to cut its dividend (currently yielding 3.97%) or raise capital at depressed prices, further diluting shareholders. The stock could fall to its 52-week low of $16.03, representing a 31.7% downside from the current price of $23.49. If the company fails to achieve the expected EPS turnaround and the market re-rates it to the industry average PS of 3.0x, the stock could trade around $15.10, a 35.7% decline. Such a scenario would likely occur if the forward EPS estimate of $0.42 is missed by a wide margin or if the stock offering signals deeper financial distress.
FAQ
The key risks are financial, competitive, and macro. Financially, MAC has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12 and a negative net margin of -19.4%, which could lead to liquidity issues or dividend cuts. Competitively, the retail sector faces structural decline from e-commerce, which could reduce mall traffic and tenant demand. Macro risks include rising interest rates, which increase debt costs and pressure REIT valuations, and the stock's high beta of 2.07 amplifies market volatility. Company-specific risks include the dilutive stock offering and the possibility of missing the forward EPS estimate of $0.42. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors leading to a 30%+ decline toward the 52-week low.
The 12-month forecast is a base case with a 50% probability of the stock trading between $23.49 and $26.19, aligning with the analyst average target. The bull case (30% probability) targets $26.68-$30.00, driven by a faster-than-expected recovery and EPS beat. The bear case (20% probability) targets $16.03-$19.00, if the recovery stalls or the company faces setbacks. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming the company achieves the estimated EPS of $0.42 and maintains stable revenue. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings for signs of progress toward this target.
MAC is overvalued relative to its peers and its own history. The PS ratio of 4.67x is 56% above the industry average of 3.0x, and the forward PE of 587x is extremely high, reflecting expectations of a sharp earnings recovery. The PEG ratio of 9.47x also suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth prospects. However, the premium may be justified by the high-quality portfolio with $899 sales per square foot, which supports higher rents and occupancy. The market is pricing in a successful turnaround, and if that happens, the stock could be fairly valued; if not, it is overvalued. Investors should compare the PS ratio to historical levels; if it falls below 3.5x, the stock would be more attractive.
MAC is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The stock has gained 38.1% over the past year and analysts see an 11.5% upside to the average target of $26.19, but the forward PE of 587x and negative net margin of -19.4% make it vulnerable to sharp corrections. The biggest downside risk is a failure to achieve the expected EPS turnaround, which could send the stock to the 52-week low of $16.03, a 31.7% drop. For investors with a high risk tolerance and a belief in the recovery of premium malls, MAC could be a good buy, but it is not suitable for conservative investors. A better entry point might be if the stock pulls back to the $20-$21 range, offering a more favorable risk-reward.
MAC is more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, given its high volatility (beta 2.07) and the time needed for the turnaround to materialize. The stock has a dividend yield of 3.97%, but the payout ratio is negative, so dividend sustainability is uncertain. Short-term trading is possible given the stock's momentum, but the recent 7.5% drop shows it can be unpredictable. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the recovery to play out and to ride out volatility. Long-term investors should focus on the company's ability to grow revenue and improve margins, which could lead to significant appreciation if successful.