Morningstar, Inc.
MORN
$200.53
-4.24%
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research and data services, catering to financial advisors, asset managers, and individual investors through products like Morningstar Direct, PitchBook, and its credit ratings arm. The company operates in the financial data and stock exchange industry, distinguishing itself as a trusted, independent source of investment insights with a strong brand and a comprehensive suite of offerings. Currently, the stock is under scrutiny due to its significant underperformance relative to the broader market over the past year, despite recent momentum and robust revenue growth, prompting debates about whether the decline represents a value opportunity or a reflection of structural challenges in its core markets.…
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
$200.53
MORN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Morningstar, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $236.67 and implied upside of +18.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$236.67
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$220 - $260
Analyst target range
Morningstar is covered by 3 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.67 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $236.67, implying an upside of approximately 13.0% from the current price of $209.40. The target range is $220.00 to $260.00, with the low target suggesting a modest 5.1% upside and the high target implying a 24.2% upside. The consensus leans bullish, but the small number of analysts indicates limited coverage, which may lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Recent institutional ratings show BMO Capital maintaining an 'Outperform' rating and UBS a 'Buy' rating, with no downgrades in the past year, indicating stable positive sentiment. The wide spread between the low and high targets (18.2% from the average) suggests moderate uncertainty about the company's future performance, likely due to the ongoing market volatility and the company's recent underperformance relative to the S&P 500.
MORN Technical Analysis
Morningstar's stock has been in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -18.87%, while the S&P 500 gained 18.65% over the same period, resulting in a relative strength of -37.52%. The current price of $209.40 sits at approximately 80% of its 52-week range (low of $141.49, high of $261.37), indicating that the stock is trading closer to its lows than its highs, which could signal either a value opportunity or a falling knife depending on fundamental drivers. The stock has recovered from its 52-week low of $141.49 in June 2026, but it remains well below its high of $261.37, suggesting persistent selling pressure over the longer term.
Beta
1.00
1.00x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$141-$261
Price range past year
Annual Return
-22.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MORN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 3m | +7.8% | +5.6% |
| 6m | +10.8% | +15.0% |
| 1y | -22.2% | +18.1% |
| ytd | -4.7% | +12.3% |
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MORN Fundamental Analysis
Morningstar's revenue has shown consistent growth, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $641.1 million, a YoY increase of 8.48% from $591.0 million in Q4 2024. This growth is part of a multi-quarter trend: Q1 2025 revenue was $581.9 million, Q2 2025 was $605.1 million, and Q3 2025 was $617.4 million, indicating accelerating sequential growth. The revenue segments show a mix: licensed-based revenue of $437.8 million is the largest, followed by transaction-based at $113.1 million and asset-based at $90.2 million, with licensed-based likely driving the growth due to its recurring nature. The company's ability to grow revenue despite market headwinds suggests resilience in its subscription-based model, which is a positive for the investment case.
Quarterly Revenue
$641100000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+8.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$442600000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MORN Overvalued?
Given that Morningstar has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, with a trailing PE of 24.33x and a forward PE of 15.02x. The significant discount in the forward PE implies that the market expects substantial earnings growth, which is supported by the estimated EPS of $16.76 for the next fiscal year, up from the trailing EPS of $8.61 (calculated from net income of $115.1 million and shares outstanding of 40.5 million). The PEG ratio of 7.25x suggests that the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, but this may be due to the low growth rate used in the calculation, as the company's earnings are expected to grow at a faster pace. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), Morningstar's trailing PE of 24.33x represents a premium of approximately 11%, which may be justified by its strong brand, recurring revenue, and high margins. Historically, Morningstar's PE has ranged from a low of 19.12x in Q4 2025 to a high of 697.35x in Q4 2022, with the current trailing PE of 24.33x near the lower end of its historical band, suggesting that the stock is trading at a relatively attractive valuation compared to its own history.
PE
24.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 19x~86x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple