The Mosaic Company
MOS
$18.82
-0.69%
The Mosaic Company is one of the world's largest producers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, operating phosphate rock mines and chemical facilities in the United States (primarily Florida), potash mines in Canada (Saskatchewan), and a large fertilizer blending and distribution business in Brazil through Mosaic Fertilizantes. Its competitive identity rests on vertically integrated, low-cost North American resource assets that position it as a primary beneficiary of any disruption to global fertilizer trade flows, particularly in potash where it is a top-tier global supplier alongside Nutrien and the Belarusian/Russian producers. The current investor narrative is dominated by a sharp deterioration in realized fertilizer prices and margins that has driven the company into consecutive quarterly losses in 2026, even as geopolitical catalysts — most notably the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz that stranded a third of global fertilizer supply — have been cited as a potential margin tailwind for North American producers with domestic inputs. The debate now centers on whether Mosaic's cost position and Brazilian distribution footprint can translate supply dislocation into earnings recovery, or whether weak phosphate/potash pricing and a stretched balance sheet will keep the equity in a value trap despite trading at a deep discount to book value.…
MOS
The Mosaic Company
$18.82
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MOS Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that Mosaic owns genuinely valuable, low-cost North American phosphate and potash assets trading at 0.63x book, but consecutive quarterly losses, -$947.1 million of TTM free cash flow, and a stock pinned 1.3% above its 52-week low mean the fundamental inflection has not arrived. The 18-analyst consensus is "buy" with a mean rating of 2.45 and an average target of $26.27 (about 39.6% upside), but that target looks stale given recent downgrades and the 25-point monthly underperformance versus SPY.
Supporting evidence is mixed but leans toward patience over purchase. Valuation is the strongest bull point: 0.63x book and 0.63x sales are at the bottom of the multi-year band versus 0.7-1.4x book and 2.4-3.9x sales through 2022-2025, and EV/EBITDA of 5.09x is low for a large-cap basic-materials producer. But the earnings base is collapsing — Q2 2026 revenue fell 6.04% year-over-year to $2.824 billion, gross margin compressed to 7.6% from 17.3%, and EPS swung to -$0.86 from $1.29. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$947.1 million TTM, and the 3.67% dividend at a 51.9% payout ratio is being funded while burning cash. The forward PE of 12.35x only works if EPS recovers to the $2.59 consensus, which is a big if.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis: a third consecutive quarterly loss in Q3 2026, a dividend cut, or a break below the $18.41 52-week low that triggers momentum selling. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if gross margins recover above 12% and free cash flow turns positive for two consecutive quarters, or if phosphate and potash realized prices show sustained sequential improvement tied to the Hormuz disruption. It would downgrade to Sell if the stock breaks below $18.41 with negative FCF persisting or if the dividend is cut. Verdict: the stock is undervalued relative to book and history, but fairly-to-fully valued relative to near-term earnings power — a value trap until cash generation inflects.
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MOS 12-Month Price Forecast
Mosaic is a high-quality asset base trapped in a severe downcycle, with the equity at 0.63x book and just 1.3% above its 52-week low while posting consecutive quarterly losses and -$947.1 million of TTM free cash flow. The bull case rests on the Hormuz supply dislocation and a forward PE of 12.35x that implies EPS recovery to $2.59, but that recovery has not appeared in realized pricing, and the analyst consensus looks stale relative to recent downgrades. The risk/reward is asymmetric only if the cycle turns — the 39.6% upside to the average target versus roughly 10-20% downside to the low target and below is not compelling enough to buy before cash generation inflects. I would upgrade to bullish on two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow and gross margins above 12%, and downgrade to bearish on a decisive break below $18.41 or a dividend cut. Until then, this is a Hold for investors who already own it and a watchlist name for those who do not.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Mosaic Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.27 and implied upside of +39.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$26.27
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+39.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $35
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid with 18 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a mean rating of 2.45 (on a scale where lower is more bullish), but the sentiment is more mixed than the headline suggests. The average target price of $26.27 implies roughly +39.6% upside from the current $18.82, which is a large gap that typically reflects targets set before the recent collapse rather than fresh conviction. The consensus leans cautiously bullish on paper, but the institutional ratings flow tells a more negative story: Freedom Broker downgraded to Sell from Buy on August 13, 2026, JP Morgan maintains Underweight, and Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, and UBS all sit at Equal Weight/Neutral — with only BMO and RBC at Outperform. The target range of $17.00 to $35.00 is extremely wide (a 2.06x spread from low to high), signaling high uncertainty and weak conviction. The high target of $35.00 (about 86% above the current price) would require a full cyclical recovery in phosphate and potash pricing, margin expansion back toward 2025 levels, and successful capture of the supply dislocation from the Strait of Hormuz closure — essentially a bull-case normalization of earnings toward the $2.59 consensus EPS. The low target of $17.00 (about 10% below the current price) prices in continued margin compression, negative free cash flow, potential dividend pressure, and a prolonged downcycle with no near-term catalyst. The combination of a wide spread, a "buy" consensus that lags the price action, and recent downgrades suggests analysts are still catching up to the deterioration; investors should treat the $26.27 average as stale until post-Q3 revisions confirm whether the consensus is holding or capitulating.
Bulls vs Bears: MOS Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence: two consecutive quarters of operating losses, a 7.6% gross margin versus 17.3% a year ago, and -$947.1 million of TTM free cash flow are hard facts, while the bull case rests on a supply-dislocation catalyst that has not yet appeared in realized pricing. The bulls' strongest ground is valuation — 0.63x book and 0.63x sales are at the bottom of the multi-year band, and the $26.27 average target implies 39.6% upside — but that target looks stale relative to the recent downgrades and the 25-point monthly underperformance versus SPY. The single most important tension is whether the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption translates into a durable phosphate and potash price recovery that restores margins toward 2025 levels, or whether weak pricing keeps Mosaic loss-making and cash-burning long enough to force dividend cuts or asset impairments. Until realized prices and free cash flow inflect, the equity is a falling knife trading at a discount that may be deserved rather than a clean value opportunity.
Bullish
- Deep discount to book and sales: MOS trades at 0.63x book value and 0.63x sales, versus its own 2022-2025 norms of roughly 0.7-1.4x book and 2.4-3.9x sales. For an asset-heavy producer owning phosphate rock mines in Florida and potash mines in Saskatchewan, this prices in substantial pessimism and offers asset-backed downside support relative to earnings-based multiples.
- Analyst average target implies 39.6% upside: The 18-analyst consensus average target of $26.27 sits roughly 39.6% above the $18.82 price, with a high target of $35.00. Even the low target of $17.00 is only about 10% below the current price, meaning the risk/reward skew on published targets is asymmetric to the upside.
- Hormuz closure supply dislocation catalyst: The reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded a third of global fertilizer supply, a structural trade disruption that disproportionately benefits North American producers with domestic phosphate rock and potash inputs. Mosaic's vertically integrated, low-cost resource base positions it as a primary beneficiary if dislocation persists into realized pricing.
- Forward PE of 12.35x prices cyclical normalization: The forward PE of 12.35x versus trailing 14.17x implies the market expects EPS to recover toward the $2.59 consensus estimate from the current TTM EPS of $0.07. If phosphate and potash prices inflect, the earnings leverage from a depressed base is substantial given the operating leverage evident in the swing from $1.29 quarterly EPS in Q2 2025 to -$0.86 in Q2 2026.
Bearish
- Consecutive quarterly losses with collapsing margins: Q2 2026 produced a net loss of -$272.8 million (EPS -$0.86) on a 7.6% gross margin, down from $410.7 million of net income and a 17.3% gross margin in Q2 2025. Q1 2026 was similarly bad at -$257.6 million with a 7.9% gross margin, and operating income was negative in both quarters (-$35.5 million and -$372.9 million).
- Deeply negative free cash flow funding the dividend: TTM free cash flow is -$947.1 million, with quarterly FCF of -$152.9 million in Q2 2026 and -$252.6 million in Q1 2026, as capex of $320.3 million and $356.8 million dwarfed operating cash flow of $167.4 million and $104.2 million. Paying a 3.67% dividend at a 51.9% payout ratio while burning cash is a sustainability risk.
- Severe downtrend with no technical floor: The stock is down 36.05% over one year and 24.78% YTD, sitting just 1.3% above its 52-week low of $18.41 and at only 13.4% of its 52-week range. It has underperformed SPY by 25.30 percentage points over the past month, and a break below $18.41 would open a new leg lower with no visible support.
- Revenue shrinking and consensus targets likely stale: Q2 2026 revenue of $2.824 billion declined 6.04% year-over-year, and the consensus FY revenue estimate of $11.7 billion implies limited recovery. The $26.27 average target looks set before the recent collapse, and the ratings flow is negative — Freedom Broker downgraded to Sell, JP Morgan is Underweight, and Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Mizuho and UBS are all Neutral.
MOS Technical Analysis
Mosaic is in a pronounced, sustained downtrend. The stock has fallen 36.05% over the past year and 24.78% year-to-date, and at $18.82 it sits just 1.3% above its 52-week low of $18.41 while trading at only 13.4% of its 52-week range ($18.41–$32.25) — a positioning that signals persistent selling pressure and a market unwilling to step in ahead of a fundamental inflection, rather than a clean value opportunity. The -47.84% maximum drawdown underscores how far the equity has traveled from its highs and how deeply the market has repriced the fertilizer cycle. Short-term momentum is accelerating to the downside rather than stabilizing: the stock is down 24.08% over the past month versus a +1.22% gain for SPY, a relative strength gap of -25.30 percentage points, and the 3-month change of -14.96% (vs. SPY +2.69%) confirms the decline is steepening into the most recent period. The 6-month change of -23.40% and YTD -24.78% show a consistent, non-divergent downtrend — there is no bullish divergence to point to, and the most recent leg lower from roughly $26.53 on September 8 to $18.82 on October 16 represents a ~29% collapse in about five weeks, indicating capitulation-style selling rather than orderly consolidation. Key levels are clear: the 52-week low at $18.41 is the immediate support, and a decisive break below it would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and open a new leg lower with no visible technical floor; resistance sits at the 52-week high of $32.25, but more practically the $21–$22 area (the September breakdown zone) must be reclaimed before any trend repair can be discussed. With a beta of 0.918, Mosaic is slightly less volatile than the broad market on a beta basis, but its realized drawdown of -47.84% and 25-point monthly relative underperformance show that idiosyncratic commodity and earnings risk — not market beta — is the dominant driver of position risk here, meaning standard beta-based sizing materially understates the true risk.
Beta
0.92
0.92x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$18-$32
Price range past year
Annual Return
-36.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MOS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -24.1% | +0.2% |
| 3m | -15.0% | +2.9% |
| 6m | -23.4% | +8.4% |
| 1y | -36.1% | +14.9% |
| ytd | -24.8% | +11.9% |
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MOS Fundamental Analysis
The revenue trajectory has turned negative and is deteriorating. Q2 2026 revenue of $2.824 billion declined 6.04% year-over-year versus $3.006 billion in Q2 2025, and the sequential path is weak: $2.998 billion in Q1 2026, $2.824 billion in Q2 2026, down from $3.452 billion in Q3 2025 and $2.603 billion in Q4 2025. Segment data shows the mix is diversified but not insulated — Phosphates at $1.246 billion, Mosaic Fertilizantes at $1.034 billion, and Potash at $650 million — with the Brazilian distribution arm providing volume but likely thin margins while phosphate and potash pricing remain the swing factor for profitability. The implication for the investment case is that Mosaic is a price-taker in a downcycle; revenue is shrinking faster than costs can be cut, and the consensus FY revenue estimate of $11.7 billion (range $10.38–$13.64 billion) implies limited near-term top-line recovery. Profitability has collapsed. Q2 2026 produced a net loss of -$272.8 million (EPS -$0.86) on a gross margin of just 7.6%, down from a 17.3% gross margin and $410.7 million of net income in Q2 2025, and Q1 2026 was similarly ugly at -$257.6 million net income with a 7.9% gross margin. The trailing net margin of 4.49% and operating margin of 8.71% mask the fact that the most recent two quarters were deeply loss-making at the operating line (Q2 operating income -$35.5 million; Q1 -$372.9 million), and the Q2 gross margin of 7.6% is far below the 15–18% range the company posted through 2025 and the 28–37% peak margins of 2022 — a compression that reflects both lower realized prices and cost inflation. Balance sheet and cash flow are the weakest part of the story. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$947.1 million, with quarterly FCF of -$152.9 million in Q2 2026 and -$252.6 million in Q1 2026, driven by capital expenditure of $320.3 million and $356.8 million respectively against operating cash flow of only $167.4 million and $104.2 million. Debt-to-equity of 0.437 is manageable but rising, the current ratio of 1.315 is adequate but the quick ratio of ~0.43 signals heavy inventory dependence, and ROE of 4.47% / ROA of 1.24% are far below cost of capital. With a dividend yield of 3.67% and a payout ratio of 51.9% being funded while FCF is deeply negative, the company is effectively relying on balance-sheet capacity and asset sales/working capital to sustain returns — a financial risk that argues for caution until cash generation inflects.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.8B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
-6.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
7.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-947100000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MOS Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is positive on a TTM basis (EPS $0.07, net margin 4.49%), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, but it is nearly meaningless at this point in the cycle: the trailing PE of 14.17x is distorted by a near-zero earnings base, while the forward PE of 12.35x implies the market expects earnings to roughly normalize toward the consensus FY EPS estimate of $2.59. The gap between the trailing and forward multiples is modest in absolute terms but enormous in implication — the forward number only looks reasonable if Mosaic earns $2.59 per share, which would require a dramatic recovery from the -$0.86 quarterly EPS just reported, so the market is effectively pricing a cyclical rebound that has not yet appeared in the data. On asset-based measures the stock is cheap: price-to-book of 0.63x and price-to-sales of 0.63x are both deep-discount levels. Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of an explicit industry-average multiple in the provided data, but the internal spread is telling: MOS trades at 0.63x book and 0.63x sales versus its own historical norms of roughly 0.7–1.4x book and 2.4–3.9x sales through 2022–2025, and its EV/EBITDA of 5.09x and EV/Sales of 0.98x are low for a large-cap basic-materials producer — though the EBITDA denominator is itself depressed. The PEG ratio of 0.068 is a statistical artifact of a near-zero earnings base and should be disregarded. Historically, the stock's PS ratio has compressed from 3.87x in Q2 2025 to 0.63x today and its PB from 0.93x to 0.63x, placing valuation near the bottom of its multi-year band; the historical PE has swung from 4–9x in the 2022–2023 upcycle to negative readings in the 2026 loss quarters. The interpretation is ambiguous: a 0.63x book multiple can signal genuine deep value in an asset-heavy, resource-owning business, or it can signal that the market expects asset impairments and continued cash burn — and with negative FCF and consecutive losses, the burden of proof sits with the bulls.
PE
14.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are acute. Mosaic has posted consecutive quarterly net losses (-$272.8 million in Q2 2026 and -$257.6 million in Q1 2026) with gross margins of 7.6% and 7.9%, far below the 15-18% range through 2025 and the 28-37% peak of 2022. TTM free cash flow of -$947.1 million, driven by capex of $320.3 million and $356.8 million against operating cash flow of only $167.4 million and $104.2 million, means the 3.67% dividend at a 51.9% payout ratio is being funded from the balance sheet rather than cash generation. Debt-to-equity of 0.437 is manageable but rising, and a quick ratio of ~0.43 signals heavy reliance on inventory, while ROE of 4.47% and ROA of 1.24% sit far below cost of capital. Revenue concentration in price-taking phosphate ($1.246 billion) and potash ($650 million) segments, plus a thin-margin Brazilian distribution arm ($1.034 billion), leaves little insulation from a continued downcycle.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and sentiment. At 0.63x book and 0.63x sales, the stock is cheap versus its own 0.7-1.4x book and 2.4-3.9x sales history, but cheap can get cheaper if earnings estimates fall further — the forward PE of 12.35x only looks reasonable if Mosaic earns the $2.59 consensus EPS, which would require a dramatic recovery from the -$0.86 just reported. The analyst picture is deteriorating: Freedom Broker downgraded to Sell on August 13, 2026, JP Morgan maintains Underweight, and Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Mizuho and UBS are all Neutral, with a target range of $17.00-$35.00 signaling weak conviction. Beta of 0.918 understates true risk — the -47.84% max drawdown and 25-point monthly relative underperformance versus SPY show idiosyncratic commodity and earnings risk, not market beta, is the dominant driver. The Hormuz closure is a double-edged catalyst: if it resolves or fails to lift realized prices, the supply-disruption narrative collapses.
Worst-case scenario: phosphate and potash prices stay depressed, Q3 2026 delivers a third consecutive loss, free cash flow remains deeply negative, and management is forced to cut the dividend or take impairments on the Brazilian distribution or phosphate assets. In that chain, the stock breaks decisively below its 52-week low of $18.41 and gravitates toward the analyst low target of $17.00, roughly -10% from the current $18.82, with a momentum-driven overshoot toward the mid-teens plausible — an additional -15% to -20% from here. Against the 52-week high of $32.25, the stock has already lost about 42%, and the -47.84% max drawdown shows how far this equity can travel in a bad cycle. An investor buying today could realistically lose 10-25% before any fundamental inflection, and the absence of a technical floor below $18.41 means the downside is not well-defined.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: consecutive quarterly losses (-$272.8 million in Q2 2026) and -$947.1 million of TTM free cash flow mean the 3.67% dividend at a 51.9% payout ratio may not be sustainable, and a cut would likely trigger further selling. Second is the technical downtrend — the stock is 36.05% lower over one year and just 1.3% above its 52-week low of $18.41, and a break below would open a new leg lower. Third is commodity price risk: Mosaic is a price-taker in phosphate and potash, and if the Hormuz supply disruption fails to lift realized prices, the earnings recovery implied by the $2.59 consensus EPS will not materialize. Fourth is competitive and balance-sheet risk, with debt-to-equity at 0.437 and a quick ratio of ~0.43 signaling heavy inventory dependence and limited liquidity cushion.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a base case at 55% probability with a $20-$26 range, assuming prices stabilize, margins recover modestly to 10-13%, and the stock gravitates toward the $26.27 average target; a bear case at 25% probability with a $15-$18 range, assuming a third consecutive loss, a dividend cut, and a break below $18.41 toward the $17.00 low target; and a bull case at 20% probability with a $30-$35 range, assuming the Hormuz disruption lifts realized prices and EPS normalizes toward $2.59, re-rating the stock to the $35.00 high target. The base case is most likely, and its key assumption is that phosphate and potash prices stabilize rather than collapse further while free cash flow improves toward breakeven.
MOS looks undervalued on asset-based measures but fairly valued on earnings. Price-to-book of 0.63x and price-to-sales of 0.63x are at the bottom of the stock's 2022-2025 range of 0.7-1.4x book and 2.4-3.9x sales, and EV/EBITDA of 5.09x is low for a large-cap basic-materials producer. However, the trailing PE of 14.17x is distorted by a near-zero earnings base (TTM EPS of $0.07), and the forward PE of 12.35x only looks reasonable if EPS recovers to the $2.59 consensus from the -$0.86 just reported. The market is paying a discount to book because it expects continued cash burn and possible impairments — the valuation implies the market expects a cyclical recovery but is unwilling to pay for it until it appears.
From a risk/reward perspective, MOS is a speculative value play rather than a clean buy. The stock trades at 0.63x book and 0.63x sales, and the $26.27 analyst average target implies about 39.6% upside, but the company just posted a -$272.8 million quarterly loss on a 7.6% gross margin and burned -$947.1 million of free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. The biggest downside risk is a break below the $18.41 52-week low toward the $17.00 analyst low target, roughly -10% or worse, with no technical floor below. It could be a good buy for contrarian investors with a multi-year horizon who believe the Hormuz supply disruption will lift phosphate and potash prices, but only after evidence of margin and cash flow inflection — not before.
MOS is better suited to a long-term, contrarian value horizon than to short-term trading. The stock is in a pronounced downtrend — down 24.08% in the past month versus SPY's +1.22%, a 25.30-point relative gap — and with beta of 0.918 but a -47.84% max drawdown, the realized risk is driven by commodity and earnings idiosyncrasies rather than market beta, making short-term timing treacherous. The 3.67% dividend yield offers some compensation for waiting, but only if it is sustained, which is uncertain given negative free cash flow. A concrete suggested minimum holding period is 18-24 months, enough time for a fertilizer cycle turn to show up in realized prices and cash flow, and only for investors who can tolerate a further 10-25% drawdown before the inflection.