SCCO

Southern Copper Corporation

$188.35

-2.66%
Sep 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Southern Copper Corporation is an integrated producer of copper and other minerals, operating mining, smelting, and refining facilities primarily in Peru and Mexico, with additional output of molybdenum, zinc, silver, lead, and gold. As one of the world's largest copper reserves holders and a low-cost producer, SCCO occupies a distinct position as a pure-play copper major with significant exposure to electrification and AI-driven infrastructure demand. The current investor narrative centers on a powerful margin expansion story: Q1 2026 revenue surged 36.2% year-over-year to $4.25 billion, driven by record copper prices and operational leverage, while the stock has rallied 91.5% over the past year. However, this bullish momentum is tempered by a notable disconnect — 17 analysts maintain an 'underperform' consensus with an average target price well below the current market price, suggesting the market is pricing in a copper supercycle that sell-side analysts have yet to fully embrace. Geopolitical risks, including Middle East conflict-driven demand destruction fears and potential copper surplus concerns, add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

People also watch

Freeport-McMoRan

Freeport-McMoRan

FCX

Analysis
Newmont Mining Corporation

Newmont Mining Corporation

NEM

Analysis
Sherwin-Williams

Sherwin-Williams

SHW

Analysis
Ecolab

Ecolab

ECL

Analysis
Air Products & Chemicals

Air Products & Chemicals

APD

Analysis

SCCO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $188.35
Average Target $188.35
High Target $216.60
Low Target $160.10

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Southern Copper Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $171.44 and implied upside of -9.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$171.44

0 analysts

Implied Upside

-9.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$138 - $275

Analyst target range

SCCO is covered by 17 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'underperform' and a recommendation mean of 3.78 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell). The average target price is $171.44, which implies a downside of approximately -11.4% from the current price of $193.49. This is a strikingly bearish consensus for a stock that has rallied 91.5% over the past year, suggesting a significant disconnect between market momentum and fundamental analyst views. The consensus leans bearish, with recent ratings from major firms including Wells Fargo (Equal Weight), Morgan Stanley (Underweight), UBS (Sell), JP Morgan (Underweight), and Scotiabank (Sector Underweight), indicating that institutional analysts are uniformly cautious on the stock.

The target price range is exceptionally wide, from a low of $138.34 to a high of $275.00, a spread of $136.66 or approximately 79% of the average target. This wide dispersion signals high uncertainty about the company's future, likely reflecting divergent views on copper price trajectories, global demand (particularly from China and AI-related infrastructure), and the sustainability of current margins. The high target of $275 implies a bullish scenario where copper prices remain elevated or rise further, driving multiple expansion and earnings growth beyond current estimates. The low target of $138.34 prices in a significant correction in copper prices, margin compression, and potentially a global economic slowdown. The estimated EPS average of $8.79 (range $7.88 to $9.66) and estimated revenue average of $18.51 billion (range $17.04 billion to $19.92 billion) provide the fundamental basis for these targets. Notably, the recent institutional ratings show no upgrades — all actions are reiterations of existing cautious or bearish stances, indicating that analysts have not been swayed by the stock's powerful rally.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: SCCO Investment Factors

The bull case for SCCO rests on exceptional operational execution, with revenue up 36% YoY and net margins at 37.2%, supported by a pristine balance sheet and structural copper demand from electrification. However, the bear case is equally compelling: a unanimous 'underperform' analyst consensus with an average target 11.4% below the current price, a premium valuation at 27x trailing earnings, and heavy dependence on copper prices that may be peaking. The most critical tension is whether the market's optimistic copper supercycle narrative will be validated by sustained high prices, or whether analysts are correct that current margins are unsustainable. Given the stock's 91.5% one-year rally and stretched valuation, the bear evidence currently carries more weight, but a breakout above $220.78 on strong copper prices could quickly shift the balance.

Bullish

  • Explosive Revenue and Margin Expansion: Q1 2026 revenue surged 36.2% YoY to $4.25 billion, with gross margin expanding to 64.75% from 50.2% a year earlier. Net income jumped 67% to $1.58 billion, yielding a 37.2% net margin that is exceptional for the mining sector.
  • Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash Generation: SCCO boasts a current ratio of 3.89, debt-to-equity of just 0.67, and interest coverage of 27.6x. It generated $1.25 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2026 alone, with TTM FCF of $4.28 billion, providing ample flexibility for dividends and growth.
  • Superior Profitability Metrics: Return on equity stands at 39.3% and return on assets at 25.7%, far exceeding typical mining sector averages. EBITDA margin of 63.65% places SCCO among the most profitable major miners globally.
  • Strong Technical Momentum and Relative Strength: The stock has rallied 91.5% over the past year, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.2% gain, with a relative strength of +75.3%. It trades at $193.49, near the upper end of its 52-week range, signaling persistent buying pressure.

Bearish

  • Analyst Consensus Strongly Bearish: All 17 covering analysts rate SCCO as 'underperform' with a mean recommendation of 3.78 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Strong Sell). The average target price of $171.44 implies 11.4% downside from the current $193.49, a rare disconnect from the stock's rally.
  • Premium Valuation Leaves No Margin for Error: SCCO trades at a trailing PE of 27.06x and a price-to-book of 10.77x, both in the upper quartile of their 5-year historical ranges. The PEG ratio of 1.11 suggests the market is pricing in optimistic growth that may not materialize if copper prices normalize.
  • Commodity Price Dependency and Cyclicality: With copper contributing ~70% of revenue, SCCO's earnings are highly leveraged to copper prices. The forward PE of 26.59x implies flat earnings growth, yet estimated EPS of $8.79 is below the trailing run-rate, hinting at expected price declines.
  • Geopolitical and Demand Destruction Risks: Middle East conflict could trigger copper demand destruction, as highlighted by recent news of a two-track metals market. A potential copper surplus from weakened global growth would pressure prices and SCCO's margins.

SCCO Technical Analysis

SCCO is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the stock up 91.48% over the past year and 34.14% year-to-date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 16.22% and 12.08% respective gains. At a current price of $193.49, the stock is trading at approximately 87.6% of its 52-week range (low of $101.08, high of $220.78), positioning it in the upper echelon of its annual trading band. This proximity to highs signals strong momentum but also raises the risk of overextension, particularly given the stock's beta of 1.151, which implies roughly 15% more volatility than the broader market. The 52-week range itself is remarkably wide at $119.70, reflecting the commodity-driven nature of the equity and the significant repricing that has occurred over the past year.

Recent momentum presents a more nuanced picture. While the 3-month change of +3.17% and 6-month change of +15.77% confirm the longer-term uptrend, the 1-month change of -0.72% reveals a stalling or consolidation phase, with the stock slightly underperforming the S&P 500's -1.06% over the same period (relative strength of +0.34%). This divergence between the strong 1-year trend and the flat 1-month performance suggests the stock is digesting its massive gains, potentially forming a consolidation pattern before the next directional move. The short ratio of 9.34 is notably elevated, indicating that short sellers have built significant positions, which could fuel a short squeeze if positive catalysts emerge, but also reflects genuine skepticism about the sustainability of current copper prices and the stock's valuation.

Key technical levels are well-defined. Immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $220.78, a breakout above which would signal renewed bullish conviction and potentially open the door to new all-time highs. Support is anchored at the 52-week low of $101.08, though a more relevant near-term support zone likely exists around the $180-$185 area, where the stock has found buyers multiple times since July 2026. The maximum drawdown of -30.22% over the past year underscores the stock's vulnerability to sharp reversals, a critical consideration for position sizing given the 1.151 beta. A breakdown below $180 would likely target the $165-$170 range, while a break above $220 would confirm the next leg of the uptrend.

Beta

1.15

1.15x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-30.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$101-$221

Price range past year

Annual Return

+84.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSCCO ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.0%-2.0%
3m-2.0%+1.4%
6m+15.5%+15.0%
1y+84.4%+15.7%
ytd+30.6%+11.6%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

SCCO Fundamental Analysis

SCCO's revenue trajectory is exceptionally strong, with Q1 2026 revenue reaching $4.25 billion, a 36.18% increase year-over-year from $3.12 billion in Q1 2025. This acceleration is part of a consistent multi-quarter uptrend: revenue rose from $3.05 billion in Q2 2025 to $3.38 billion in Q3 2025, $3.87 billion in Q4 2025, and now $4.25 billion in Q1 2026. The copper segment dominates, contributing $2.98 billion (approximately 70% of revenue), followed by silver at $531.5 million, molybdenum at $445.5 million, zinc at $145 million, and other products at $146.8 million. This growth is driven by a combination of higher copper prices and volume increases, with the company benefiting from its low-cost, integrated operations in Peru and Mexico. The revenue growth rate of 36.18% is exceptional for a mature mining company and reflects the powerful commodity tailwinds currently benefiting copper producers.

Profitability is outstanding, with Q1 2026 net income of $1.58 billion and a net margin of 37.2%, up significantly from 30.3% in Q1 2025 and 28.5% in Q4 2024. Gross margin expanded to 64.75% in Q1 2026 from 50.2% in Q1 2025, while operating margin reached 58.34%, demonstrating powerful operating leverage as revenue growth outpaces cost increases. The company's EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $2.71 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 63.65%, placing SCCO among the most profitable major mining companies globally. This margin expansion is driven by higher realized copper prices, operational efficiencies, and the company's low-cost production profile. The net income ratio of 37.2% is exceptional for the mining sector, where 15-25% margins are more typical, underscoring SCCO's competitive advantage.

SCCO's balance sheet is fortress-like, with a current ratio of 3.89 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, indicating ample liquidity and conservative leverage. The company generated $1.69 billion in operating cash flow in Q1 2026, with free cash flow of $1.25 billion after $441.9 million in capital expenditures. TTM free cash flow stands at $4.28 billion, providing substantial financial flexibility. Return on equity is an impressive 39.27%, while return on assets is 25.71%, reflecting the company's efficient capital deployment. The interest coverage ratio of 27.6x is exceptionally strong, and the company's cash position of $4.92 billion at the end of Q1 2026 provides a significant buffer. The dividend payout ratio of 57.3% and dividend yield of 2.09% indicate a shareholder-friendly capital return policy, though the high payout ratio leaves less room for error if copper prices decline.

Quarterly Revenue

$4.3B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+36.2%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

64.8%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$4.3B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Copper
Molybdenum
Zinc
Other
Silver

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is SCCO Overvalued?

With net income positive at $1.58 billion in Q1 2026, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. SCCO trades at a trailing PE of 27.06x and a forward PE of 26.59x, a narrow gap that implies the market expects relatively flat earnings growth over the next year. This is somewhat surprising given the company's recent 36% revenue growth and 67% EPS growth (from $1.19 in Q1 2025 to $1.92 in Q1 2026), suggesting the market may be pricing in a peak in copper prices or anticipating margin compression. The PEG ratio of 1.11 is reasonable, indicating that the valuation is roughly in line with expected growth, though the forward PE of 26.59x is based on estimated EPS of $8.79, which represents a decline from the trailing EPS run-rate of approximately $7.15 (annualizing Q1 2026's $1.92).

Compared to the broader Basic Materials sector, SCCO trades at a significant premium. The price-to-book ratio of 10.77x is exceptionally high for a mining company, where 2-3x is more typical, reflecting the market's premium valuation for SCCO's low-cost, long-life reserves and copper exposure. The price-to-sales ratio of 8.85x and EV/EBITDA of 15.2x are also elevated relative to sector averages, though the company's 37.2% net margin and 39.3% ROE justify some premium. The dividend yield of 2.09% is below the sector average, but the payout ratio of 57.3% suggests room for growth. The premium valuation appears justified by SCCO's superior profitability and growth profile, but leaves little margin for error if copper prices decline or operational issues arise.

Historically, SCCO's valuation has expanded dramatically. The trailing PE of 27.06x compares to a historical range of 11.9x to 35.3x over the past five years, placing it in the upper quartile of its own band. The price-to-book ratio of 10.77x is near the top of its historical range (5.1x to 12.0x), while the price-to-sales ratio of 8.85x is also elevated. This historical context suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for copper prices and SCCO's operational performance. The current valuation is not unprecedented — the stock traded at a 35.3x PE in Q4 2023 — but it does indicate that investors are paying a premium for growth that may be difficult to sustain if commodity prices normalize.

PE

27.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~27x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial and operational risks are moderate but centered on commodity price dependency. With copper accounting for approximately 70% of revenue, a 10% decline in copper prices could reduce net income by roughly 20-25% given operating leverage. The dividend payout ratio of 57.3% leaves limited cushion if earnings decline, though the current ratio of 3.89 and debt-to-equity of 0.67 provide a strong buffer. Additionally, capital expenditures of $441.9 million in Q1 2026 are manageable, but any operational disruptions in Peru or Mexico could impact production and cash flow.

Market and competitive risks are significant given the premium valuation. SCCO trades at a price-to-book of 10.77x, far above the 2-3x typical for miners, and a trailing PE of 27.06x versus a historical range of 11.9x to 35.3x. If copper prices decline or growth slows, multiple compression could be severe. The beta of 1.151 means the stock is 15% more volatile than the market, and the short ratio of 9.34 reflects substantial bearish sentiment. Regulatory risks in Peru and Mexico, including potential tax increases or community opposition, could also disrupt operations.

The worst-case scenario involves a sharp correction in copper prices due to global demand destruction from geopolitical conflicts or a China slowdown, leading to margin compression and earnings misses. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $101.08, representing a 47.8% decline from the current price of $193.49. The analyst low target of $138.34 implies a 28.5% downside, but a more severe sell-off could occur if the copper supercycle narrative unravels. Investors should be prepared for a potential drawdown of 30-50% in a bear market for commodities.