Newmont Mining Corporation
NEM
$95.35
+1.39%
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, with a diversified portfolio of 11 mines and joint ventures across the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. Its distinct identity is that of a global industry leader and consolidator, having significantly expanded its asset base through the acquisitions of Goldcorp and Newcrest. The current investor narrative is dominated by the volatile interplay between soaring gold prices, which drove blowout earnings and a massive $6 billion buyback announcement in April 2026, and the subsequent sharp downturn as gold entered a bear market in June, pressuring the stock amid concerns over lower forecasted production and rising costs.…
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation
$95.35
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NEM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Newmont Mining Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $123.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$123.95
15 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
15
covering this stock
Price Range
$76 - $124
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 15 analysts, indicating substantial institutional interest. The consensus recommendation is bullish, as evidenced by recent actions from firms like UBS, Citigroup, and Scotiabank maintaining or initiating Buy or Outperform ratings. The average target price is implied by the estimated EPS average of $11.80 and the forward PE of 9.1x, which suggests a target near $107.40, offering approximately 3.5% upside from the current price of $103.79. The estimated revenue average is $25.86 billion. The target range has a low EPS estimate of $10.50 and a high of $13.83, translating to a price range of roughly $95.60 to $126.00 based on the forward multiple. The high target assumes successful execution on cost control, stable-to-higher gold prices, and efficient integration of past acquisitions. The low target prices in the bearish scenario of sustained weak gold prices, production shortfalls, and margin compression. The institutional ratings show a pattern of steady bullishness, with recent actions in March 2026 including an upgrade from Bernstein to Market Outperform. The relatively wide target spread reflects the high uncertainty inherent in commodity price forecasting.
Bulls vs Bears: NEM Investment Factors
The investment debate for Newmont is currently dominated by bearish near-term forces, primarily the sharp reversal in gold prices. While the company's fundamental strengths—exceptional cash flow, a fortress balance sheet, and high margins—are undeniable, they are being overshadowed by the immediate headwind of a gold bear market. The bear side holds stronger evidence in the short term, as evidenced by severe technical breakdown and the market's expectation of plunging earnings (forward P/E 9.1x). The single most important tension is between the company's robust, high-quality asset base and its complete lack of control over its primary revenue driver: the spot price of gold. The resolution of this tension—whether gold stabilizes or continues to fall—will dictate whether the stock acts as a value trap or a compelling entry point into a world-class operator.
Bullish
- Robust Free Cash Flow & Capital Return: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $10.33 billion provides immense financial flexibility. This funds the recently announced $6 billion share buyback and a healthy dividend, offering direct shareholder returns.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Low Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 indicates minimal financial risk and ample capacity to weather a commodity downturn. The current ratio of 2.29 further underscores strong liquidity.
- Superior Profitability & Margin Expansion: Q4 2025 gross margin surged to 58.8%, up from 44.7% a year prior, demonstrating significant operating leverage to higher gold prices. A trailing net margin of 32.1% and ROE of 20.9% highlight efficient operations.
- Analyst Consensus Remains Bullish: Coverage from 15 analysts shows a consensus bullish stance, with recent upgrades like Bernstein to Market Outperform in March 2026. The average EPS target of $11.80 implies a forward P/E of 9.1x, suggesting embedded value.
Bearish
- Direct Exposure to Gold Bear Market: Recent news confirms gold has entered its first bear market since 2022, with prices down 25%. As a pure-play miner, Newmont's revenue, earnings, and stock price are directly and severely pressured by this macro shift.
- Earnings Peak & Forward Guidance Deterioration: The forward P/E of 9.1x is a steep 42% discount to the trailing P/E of 15.6x, signaling the market expects a sharp earnings decline. News cites forecasts for lower 2026 production and rising costs, creating a 'perfect storm' for profits.
- Technical Downtrend & Severe Underperformance: The stock is down 1.24% over the past month while the SPY gained 0.74%, a 1.98 percentage point underperformance. It trades 23% below its 52-week high and recently broke below the $95.80 support level, confirming bearish momentum.
- Valuation Compression from Recent Highs: The trailing P/E has compressed from a Q4 2025 high of 21.2x to 15.6x. While not distressed, this reflects a market repricing from peak gold-price optimism, and further multiple contraction is possible if gold weakens.
NEM Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having experienced a significant correction. Over the past year, the stock is up 78.15%, but the current price of $103.79 sits just 36% above its 52-week low of $55.37 and 23% below its 52-week high of $134.88, indicating it has given back a substantial portion of its gains and is trading in the lower-middle portion of its annual range, suggesting momentum has decisively shifted from bullish to corrective. Recent momentum is sharply negative and diverging from the longer-term uptrend. The stock is down 1.24% over the past month and has underperformed the SPY by 1.98 percentage points, while its 3-month gain of 8.34% lags the SPY's 15.14% return by nearly 7 percentage points. This underperformance, especially the negative 1-month return against a positive market, signals a sector-specific sell-off likely tied to falling gold prices, as confirmed by recent news. Key technical support is at the 52-week low area of $55.37, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $134.88. A breakdown below the March 2026 low near $95.80 would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a recovery above the $130 level is needed to restore bullish momentum. With a beta of 0.455, the stock is historically less volatile than the market, but the recent price action and a maximum drawdown of -29.69% show it is experiencing significant idiosyncratic, commodity-driven risk.
Beta
0.46
0.46x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$55-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+64.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NEM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.6% | -2.2% |
| 3m | -6.6% | +15.8% |
| 6m | -9.9% | +6.4% |
| 1y | +64.2% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -5.8% | +7.7% |
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NEM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust but is showing signs of sequential deceleration from peak levels. For Q4 2025, revenue was $6.57 billion, representing a strong 14.8% year-over-year growth. However, this marks a deceleration from the explosive growth seen in prior quarters of 2025 (Q3: $5.38B, Q2: $5.28B, Q1: $4.87B), which followed a weaker 2024. The revenue segment data shows Gold Dore sales of $7.59 billion and Sales From Concentrate of $4.24 billion, indicating the core gold business is the primary driver. The growth trend, now potentially reversing with lower gold prices, is critical for this commodity-linked investment case. The company is highly profitable with expanding margins. Q4 2025 net income was $1.30 billion, yielding a net margin of 19.8%. The gross margin was exceptionally strong at 58.8% for the quarter, up significantly from 44.7% in Q4 2024 and the trailing gross margin of 49.8%. This margin expansion, driven by higher realized gold prices, has been a key profitability driver, though rising costs are now cited as a concern in recent news. The balance sheet is strong and the company generates substantial cash flow. The debt-to-equity ratio is a very low 0.17, indicating minimal financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is a healthy 20.9%. Most notably, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a robust $10.33 billion, providing ample internal funding for growth, dividends, and the announced $6 billion buyback. The current ratio of 2.29 shows strong short-term liquidity.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.14%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.58%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$10.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NEM Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 15.6x, while the forward PE is 9.1x. The significant discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects a substantial decline in earnings, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $11.80 for the coming period, down from recent quarterly EPS figures above $1.20. Compared to sector averages, Newmont's trailing PE of 15.6x is not directly comparable without a provided industry average, but its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 5.0x and EV/EBITDA of 7.3x can be contextualized; these multiples are typical for a large, mature mining company. The valuation premium or discount is largely justified by the company's scale, reserve life, and profitability, which are superior to many peers. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed from recent highs. The current trailing PE of 15.6x is below the historical high seen in Q4 2025 of 21.2x and is near the middle of its range over the past few years (from negative values during loss periods to over 60x during low-profit phases). This suggests the market has already priced in a moderation from peak earnings optimism, but is not yet at deeply distressed valuation levels seen during prior industry downturns.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -268x~3615x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are currently elevated despite a strong balance sheet. The core risk is extreme earnings volatility tied to gold prices, with the forward P/E of 9.1x implying a ~42% expected drop from trailing earnings. Recent news highlights specific operational headwinds, including forecasted lower production for 2026 and rising costs, which could compress the stellar Q4 gross margin of 58.8%. While the debt-to-equity of 0.17 mitigates solvency risk, the business model is inherently high-cost and capital-intensive, with profitability highly sensitive to small changes in realized gold prices.
Market & Competitive Risks center on valuation compression and macro regime shifts. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 15.6x, which has already compressed from 21.2x, but could fall further if gold remains in a bear market, repricing the entire sector. The recent -1.98 percentage point underperformance vs. the SPY over one month signals sector rotation away from commodities. A sustained period of high real interest rates (as indicated by recent news) directly undermines the investment case for non-yielding gold, creating a persistent macro headwind that outweighs the company's operational excellence.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a prolonged gold bear market coupled with operational execution issues. A chain of events where gold prices fall another 10-15%, the company misses its production guidance, and costs rise faster than expected could lead to a rapid de-rating. This could drive the stock toward its 52-week low of $55.37, representing a potential loss of approximately -47% from the current price of $103.79. While this extreme scenario may have a low probability, the recent -29.69% maximum drawdown demonstrates the stock's vulnerability to such a perfect storm of negative catalysts.