SSR Mining
SSRM
$37.77
+2.55%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company focused on gold and silver production, operating primarily in the Americas with assets including the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina. The company is a mid-tier gold producer with a diversified portfolio, historically deriving over half of its revenue from gold and a significant portion from silver. The current investor narrative centers on SSR Mining's strategic transformation following the $1.5 billion sale of its troubled Copler mine in Turkey, which has de-risked the business, strengthened its balance sheet, and enabled a massive share buyback program, all while benefiting from a robust gold price environment. This has driven a significant re-rating of the stock, with investors debating the sustainability of its growth trajectory and the effective deployment of its cash war chest.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$37.77
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SSRM Today?
SSR Mining is rated a Buy based on its strong growth, undervaluation, and strategic de-risking. The consensus Strong Buy with an average target of $41.40 supports this view, implying 9.6% upside. The thesis is anchored on the company's ability to sustain revenue growth and expand margins, which are already evident in Q1 2026.
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SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses SSR Mining as bullish given its strong growth, undervaluation, and positive analyst sentiment. The key factors are the explosive revenue growth, margin expansion, and a strong balance sheet. However, the medium confidence reflects the risks of gold price volatility and execution challenges. The stance would be upgraded if gold prices continue to rise and the company delivers on its buyback program; downgraded if margins compress or growth decelerates.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.40 and implied upside of +9.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.40
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+9.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $48
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited with only 5 analysts, but the consensus is a Strong Buy with a mean recommendation of 1.4 (where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target is $41.40, implying a 9.6% upside from the current price of $37.77. The target range spans from $39.00 to $48.00, with the low target still 3.3% above the current price, indicating a bullish outlook across the board. The high target of $48.00 suggests potential for 27.1% upside, likely assuming continued gold price strength and successful execution of the buyback and growth strategy. Recent ratings actions have been positive, with upgrades from RBC Capital (from Sector Perform to Outperform) and CIBC (from Neutral to Outperform), and consistent Buy ratings from UBS and B of A Securities, reflecting growing institutional confidence in the company's turnaround.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
SSR Mining presents a compelling bull case with explosive revenue growth, margin expansion, and a fortress balance sheet, all supported by a strong gold price environment. The bear case centers on earnings volatility, valuation concerns after a massive rally, and dependence on gold prices. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental improvements and analyst upgrades, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory and effectively deploy its cash war chest. If gold prices hold and management executes on buybacks and growth, the stock could re-rate higher; otherwise, the premium valuation could compress.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 83.8% YoY to $581.8M, driven by higher gold prices and production. This acceleration from prior quarters signals strong operational momentum and pricing power.
- Margin Expansion and Operating Leverage: Gross margin expanded to 61.3% in Q1 2026 from 47.2% a year ago, while operating margin jumped to 52.5% from 21.1%. This reflects efficient cost management and higher metal prices, boosting profitability.
- Fortress Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is just 0.12, current ratio at 2.08, and TTM free cash flow of $482.3M. The $1.5B Copler sale adds a massive cash war chest, enabling buybacks and growth investments.
- Undervalued vs. Peers: Forward PE of 8.2x is 45-59% below the typical gold miner average of 15-20x. Despite the 123% rally, the stock still trades at a discount, offering upside if growth continues.
Bearish
- Q1 Net Loss Despite Strong Revenue: Q1 2026 net income was -$106.5M due to a $59.8M tax expense and other items, contrasting with $181.5M profit in Q4 2025. This volatility raises concerns about earnings quality.
- High Valuation After Rally: Stock is up 123% in a year and trades near its 52-week high. PS ratio of 2.68x, while below sector, is elevated relative to its own history, limiting near-term upside.
- Dependence on Gold Price: Revenue is heavily tied to gold prices, which are volatile. A 10% drop in gold could significantly impact earnings, given the company's high operating leverage.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only 5 analysts cover the stock, which may lead to less accurate estimates and higher volatility. The low coverage also means less institutional scrutiny.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSR Mining is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with the stock up 123.2% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.5% gain. The current price of $37.77 sits just 1.6% below its 52-week high of $38.40 and 126.7% above its 52-week low of $16.66, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment. Trading near the top of its 52-week range suggests the market is rewarding the company's strategic moves, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$17-$38
Price range past year
Annual Return
+123.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +34.5% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +27.1% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +24.0% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +123.2% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +75.5% | +12.3% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
SSR Mining's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $581.8 million, representing an 83.8% year-over-year growth rate, a substantial acceleration from the prior year's quarterly figures (e.g., Q1 2025 revenue was $316.6 million). This growth is driven by higher gold prices and increased production, with gold contributing $400.1 million and silver $159.5 million in the latest quarter. The company's profitability has improved dramatically, with Q1 2026 gross margin of 61.3% and operating margin of 52.5%, up from 47.2% and 21.1% respectively in Q1 2025, reflecting operational leverage and cost controls. However, the reported net income of -$106.5 million in Q1 2026 is a loss, primarily due to a one-time tax expense of $59.8 million and other non-operating items, contrasting with the $181.5 million net income in Q4 2025. The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, current ratio of 2.08, and free cash flow of $482.3 million over the trailing twelve months, indicating ample liquidity and self-funding capacity for growth initiatives.
Quarterly Revenue
$581778000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+83.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482307514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Given the positive trailing EPS of $0.09, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, with a trailing PE of 11.2x and a forward PE of 8.2x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 2.68x, which is below the sector average for gold miners, suggesting a potential discount. Compared to industry peers, SSR Mining's forward PE of 8.2x is notably lower than the typical gold miner average of around 15-20x, implying a 45-59% discount, which may be justified by its recent operational disruptions but also offers upside if it delivers on growth. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from negative to over 60x, with the current 11.2x trailing PE near the lower end of its historical band, indicating the market is pricing in conservative expectations despite the recent rally.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include the Q1 2026 net loss of -$106.5M, driven by a one-time tax expense, which highlights earnings volatility. While the balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity of 0.12 and current ratio of 2.08, the company's reliance on continued revenue growth to justify its forward PE of 8.2x is a risk. If gold prices decline or production issues arise, margins could compress, impacting cash flow and the ability to fund buybacks. The negative PEG ratio of -0.04 also suggests that earnings growth expectations may be uncertain.
FAQ
Key risks include gold price volatility, which directly impacts revenue and margins. Operational risks such as mining accidents or production disruptions could hurt earnings. Financial risks include the potential for earnings volatility, as seen in Q1 2026's net loss. Additionally, the stock's high beta of 0.877 means it is sensitive to market movements, and a market downturn could amplify losses.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $39-42 (50% probability) and a bull case of $44-48 (30% probability). The bear case is $25-30 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming stable gold prices and successful execution of the buyback. The average analyst target is $41.40, implying 9.6% upside.
SSRM is undervalued relative to its peers, with a forward PE of 8.2x versus the sector average of 15-20x. Its PS ratio of 2.68x is also below the sector. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged widely, but the current level is near the lower end, suggesting the market is pricing in conservative expectations. This implies the stock has room to re-rate if growth continues.
SSRM is a good buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance, given its strong growth and undervaluation. The stock has a consensus Strong Buy with an average target of $41.40, implying 9.6% upside. However, the recent 123% rally and dependence on gold prices mean it's not without risk. For those bullish on gold and confident in management's execution, it's a compelling opportunity.
SSRM is more suitable for long-term investment due to its growth potential and undervaluation. The stock has a beta of 0.877, indicating moderate volatility, but the strong balance sheet and strategic moves provide a foundation for long-term value creation. Short-term traders could also profit from momentum, but the stock's recent rally suggests limited near-term upside. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to capture the full benefit of the growth strategy.