SSR Mining
SSRM
$33.13
-0.84%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company focused on gold and silver production across key assets in the Americas, including the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Canada, and the Puna mine in Argentina. The company operates as a mid-tier producer with a geographically diversified portfolio, aiming to generate stable cash flows from long-life, low-cost operations. The current investor narrative is dominated by a significant strategic transformation, highlighted by the recent $1.5 billion sale of its Turkish mine, which is seen as derisking the business, strengthening the balance sheet, and enabling substantial shareholder returns through buybacks, all against a backdrop of a rising gold price environment.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$33.13
Related headlines
SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.07 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$43.07
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$27 - $43
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for SSR Mining is limited, with only two analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap mining stock. The consensus sentiment appears bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional rating actions including an upgrade from CIBC to 'Outperform' and maintained 'Buy' ratings from UBS. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the high level of institutional interest and recent positive news flow suggests a favorable outlook. The target price range implied by EPS estimates is wide, with a low of $3.47 and a high of $4.81, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting commodity prices and mining costs. The high target assumes successful execution of the refined Americas-focused strategy, sustained high gold prices, and efficient capital returns. The low target likely factors in potential operational setbacks, cost inflation, or a downturn in gold prices. The recent upgrade activity and the strategic asset sale have likely increased analyst confidence, potentially leading to target price increases, though the limited number of covering analysts means the consensus can be swayed significantly by individual actions.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
The bull case, driven by explosive fundamental improvement, strategic transformation, and a strong gold price, currently holds stronger evidence. The company's revenue growth of 64% YoY, margin expansion to 24% net income, and a fortress balance sheet post-$1.5B sale are concrete, transformative developments. However, the bear case rightly highlights that this remarkable turnaround is largely reflected in a 225% stock surge and a valuation now trading at the high end of its historical range. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether SSRM can sustain its newly achieved high level of profitability and justify its forward multiple expansion in the face of inherently volatile commodity prices. The resolution hinges on gold price stability and the company's ability to execute its refined Americas-focused strategy without operational hiccups.
Bullish
- Exceptional Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 63.91% YoY to $529.7M, while net income surged to $184.2M from a loss a year prior, demonstrating a powerful operational turnaround. This is driven by higher production and strong gold/silver prices, with a robust net margin of 24.28%.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Capital Returns: A $1.5B asset sale has derisked the portfolio and fortified the balance sheet, evidenced by a low debt-to-equity of 0.118 and strong free cash flow of $348.4M TTM. This provides significant flexibility for substantial shareholder returns, including a massive share buyback program.
- Compelling Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 6.03x is deeply discounted compared to the trailing P/E of 11.04x and typical gold miner multiples (15-25x). This implies the market expects a sharp earnings increase, with analyst EPS estimates averaging $3.93, suggesting significant upside potential.
- Powerful Technical Momentum: The stock has gained 225.44% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 195.92%. It trades at 91% of its 52-week high ($36.52), confirming a strong uptrend with recent momentum of +9.27% over the past month.
Bearish
- Massive Rally Priced for Perfection: After a 225% one-year surge, the stock trades near its 52-week high, suggesting much of the positive news (asset sale, earnings recovery) is priced in. The trailing P/E of 11.04x is at the high end of its own historical range, leaving little room for error.
- High Sensitivity to Commodity Prices: As a pure-play miner, SSRM's earnings are directly tied to volatile gold and silver prices. Any downturn in commodity prices would immediately compress margins and revenue, reversing the recent profitability surge. The stock's beta of 0.898 understates its company-specific volatility driven by gold prices.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & Guidance: Only two analysts provide estimates, creating high sensitivity to individual rating changes and less reliable consensus. The wide EPS estimate range ($3.47 low to $4.81 high) reflects significant uncertainty in forecasting production costs and metal prices.
- Potential for Profit-Taking & Volatility: The stock has shown sharp pullbacks within its uptrend (e.g., from ~$35 to $33.13 in early April). A beta below 1.0 masks the stock's high idiosyncratic volatility, and a break below key support near $24 could trigger a deeper correction given the extended rally.
SSRM Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +225.44%. As of the latest close at $33.13, the price is trading at approximately 91% of its 52-week high of $36.52, indicating the stock is near its recent peak and momentum is strong, though it also suggests potential for near-term consolidation or profit-taking. The stock has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a relative strength of +195.92% over the past year, highlighting its status as a high-momentum play within the materials sector. Recent momentum remains robust but shows signs of volatility within the uptrend. The stock gained +9.27% over the past month and +50.52% over the past three months, confirming the bullish trend is intact. However, the price action from the provided data shows a sharp pullback from a high near $35 in early April to the current $33.13, indicating some short-term profit-taking and consolidation after the explosive rally. The stock's beta of 0.898 suggests it has been slightly less volatile than the market during this period, which is notable given its massive gains. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $9.88, though more relevant near-term support lies around the $22-$24 zone where the stock consolidated in late March. Immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $36.52. A decisive breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a breakdown below the $24 support could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta below 1.0, combined with its extreme returns, presents a unique risk profile; its volatility has been driven by company-specific catalysts rather than broad market moves, which is a critical consideration for risk management.
Beta
0.90
0.90x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$10-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
+225.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.3% | +2.6% |
| 3m | +50.5% | -2.3% |
| 6m | +47.6% | +2.6% |
| 1y | +225.4% | +27.3% |
| ytd | +53.9% | -0.4% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been explosive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $529.7 million representing a year-over-year increase of 63.91%. This acceleration is evident across recent quarters, with revenue growing from $316.6 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 peak, driven by higher production and stronger gold and silver prices. Segment data confirms gold as the primary driver, contributing $369.3 million in the latest period, while silver added $114.0 million, showcasing the company's dual commodity leverage. Profitability has improved dramatically. The company reported net income of $184.2 million in Q4 2025, with a robust net margin of 24.28%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 46.18%, and the operating margin was 28.86%. This marks a stark reversal from the net loss of -$287.1 million in Q1 2024, illustrating a successful turnaround driven by operational execution and favorable commodity prices. The trajectory is clearly toward sustained and expanding profitability. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.118, indicating minimal financial leverage. The company generated substantial free cash flow of $348.4 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing ample internal funding for growth and shareholder returns. The current ratio of 2.08 demonstrates solid short-term liquidity. This financial health, bolstered by the recent $1.5 billion asset sale, positions SSR Mining with significant financial flexibility for buybacks, dividends, or strategic acquisitions.
Quarterly Revenue
$529744576.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.63%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.46%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$348375752.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 11.04x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 6.03x. This substantial gap implies the market expects a sharp increase in earnings, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $3.93 for the coming period, compared to the trailing diluted EPS of $0.84 from Q4 2025. Compared to industry averages, SSR Mining's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 11.04x is below the typical range for profitable gold miners, which often trade between 15-25x, suggesting a potential discount. However, its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 2.68x and EV/EBITDA of 6.29x are more in line with sector norms. The discount on a PE basis may be attributed to its historical volatility and the mining sector's cyclical nature, though its recent profitability surge and strong balance sheet could justify a re-rating. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 11.04x sits well above its own historical range observed over the past few years, where it frequently traded at single-digit or even negative PE ratios during loss-making periods. This shift to a higher, stable PE band reflects the market's recognition of the company's transformed fundamental profile—from a struggling miner to a profitable, cash-generative entity. Trading near the top of its own historical valuation range suggests the market is pricing in continued execution and favorable gold prices.
PE
11.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -30x~63x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are currently low but hinge on execution. The company has dramatically improved its financial health, with a strong current ratio of 2.08 and minimal debt (D/E of 0.118). The primary risk is not leverage but earnings volatility; a reversion to the net loss of -$287M seen in Q1 2024 is possible if gold prices fall or costs spike. Revenue, while growing rapidly, remains 100% tied to precious metals prices, introducing significant margin pressure risk. The recent profitability (Q4 net margin of 24.3%) must be sustained to justify the valuation re-rating.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 11.04x, which is above its own historical norms during loss-making periods, suggesting it is priced for continued perfection. While its forward P/E of 6.03x appears cheap versus peers, any disappointment in forward EPS (currently estimated at $3.93) could trigger severe multiple compression. The stock's beta of 0.898 is deceptive; its 225% one-year gain versus the market's 29.5% shows it is driven by company-specific and commodity factors, not the broader market, making it susceptible to sharp sector rotations out of gold miners if the macro narrative shifts away from stagflation/inflation fears.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a simultaneous drop in gold prices and an operational setback at a key mine (e.g., Marigold). This could reverse the earnings recovery, leading to missed estimates and a rapid de-rating. Analyst EPS low target of $3.47, combined with a return to a high-single-digit P/E, suggests a realistic downside. From the current price of $33.13, a decline to the 52-week low of $9.88 represents a -70% loss, though a more probable severe bear case would see a retracement to the $22-$24 consolidation zone, representing a -27% to -33% decline from current levels, as the fundamental transformation provides a higher floor than the previous lows.