SSR Mining
SSRM
$28.08
+3.20%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company focused on gold and silver production from its operations in the Americas, including the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina. The company distinguishes itself as a mid-tier gold producer with a diversified asset base and a strong balance sheet, having recently completed a transformative $1.5 billion sale of its troubled Copler mine in Turkey. Investor attention is currently centered on the company's strategic pivot to the Americas, its massive share buyback program, and the potential for margin expansion amid a rising gold price environment.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$28.08
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SSRM Today?
Rating: Buy. SSRM is a compelling buy based on its strong revenue growth, attractive valuation, and transformative asset sale that de-risks the business and funds a massive buyback. The analyst consensus is 'strong buy' with an average target of $41.40, implying 61.9% upside.
Supporting evidence: (1) Revenue grew 83.8% YoY to $581.8M in Q1 2026. (2) The trailing PS ratio of 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range (4.13x-18.36x). (3) EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is attractive relative to the sector. (4) Free cash flow TTM of $482.3M provides strong cash generation. (5) The $1.5 billion Copler sale and buyback program are significant catalysts. These factors support the view that SSRM is undervalued relative to its peers and history.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a sustained net loss (Q1 2026 net loss of $106.5M) and a decline in gold prices. If the company returns to net profitability in Q2 2026 and gold prices remain supportive, the stock could re-rate higher. Conversely, if net losses continue or gold prices fall below $1,800/oz, the thesis would weaken. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if the stock approaches the analyst average target of $41.40 without new catalysts, or if revenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY. Overall, SSRM appears undervalued based on its PS ratio and EV/EBITDA, with significant upside potential.
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SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. SSRM's strong revenue growth, attractive valuation, and strategic catalysts (asset sale, buyback) support a positive outlook. However, the recent net loss and negative short-term momentum temper confidence. The key to the thesis is whether the company can return to net profitability in the coming quarters. If it does, the stock is likely to re-rate significantly toward analyst targets. If losses persist, the stock could underperform. The base case of reaching $36-$41.40 is most probable, given the strong operational momentum and gold price tailwinds.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.40 and implied upside of +47.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.40
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+47.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $48
Analyst target range
SSRM is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'strong buy' (mean rating 1.4 out of 5, where 1 is strong buy). The average target price is $41.40, implying a substantial 61.9% upside from the current price of $25.57. The distribution leans heavily bullish, with no hold or sell ratings. The target range spans from a low of $39.00 to a high of $48.00, representing a 23.1% spread between the low and high. The high target of $48.00 assumes continued operational improvements, higher gold prices, and successful execution of the share buyback and strategic refocus. The low target of $39.00 still implies 52.5% upside, suggesting analysts see significant value even in a conservative scenario. Recent ratings actions have been positive, with upgrades from RBC Capital (to Outperform) and CIBC (to Outperform) in mid-2026, and multiple reaffirmations of Buy ratings from UBS and B of A Securities. This strong analyst conviction supports the bullish case, though the wide target spread indicates some uncertainty around the pace of the turnaround.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
SSRM presents a compelling bull case driven by strong revenue growth, attractive valuation multiples, a solid balance sheet, and a transformative asset sale that de-risks the business and funds a massive buyback. The average analyst target implies 61.9% upside, and the stock trades at a discount to its historical PS range. However, the bear case highlights a recent net loss, negative short-term momentum, and sensitivity to gold prices. The single most important tension is whether the company can convert its strong operational performance (52.5% operating margin) into consistent net profitability, as the Q1 2026 loss was largely due to a tax item. If the company returns to net income in coming quarters, the bullish thesis is strongly supported; if losses persist, the stock could face further downside. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the valuation support and strategic catalysts.
Bullish
- Massive Analyst Upside Potential: The average analyst target price of $41.40 implies 61.9% upside from the current $25.57, with a consensus 'strong buy' rating (mean 1.4/5). Even the low target of $39.00 offers 52.5% upside, indicating significant perceived value.
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory: Revenue surged 83.8% YoY to $581.8M in Q1 2026, driven by higher gold and silver production and prices. This growth is supported by a diversified asset base in the Americas and a favorable gold price environment.
- Attractive Valuation on Cash Flow: With a P/CF ratio of 9.26x and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x, SSRM trades at a discount to many gold mining peers. The trailing PS ratio of 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range (4.13x-18.36x), suggesting undervaluation.
- Solid Balance Sheet and Cash Generation: Debt-to-equity is only 0.12, and the current ratio is 2.08, indicating strong liquidity. Free cash flow for the TTM was $482.3M, and operating cash flow in Q1 2026 alone was $260.8M, providing ample capital for buybacks and growth.
Bearish
- Recent Net Loss Raises Red Flags: Despite strong revenue growth, SSRM reported a net loss of $106.5M in Q1 2026, compared to net income of $58.8M a year ago. The net margin turned negative at -18.3%, driven by a $59.8M income tax expense, raising concerns about earnings quality.
- Sharp Short-Term Price Decline: The stock has fallen 19.5% over the past month and 19.5% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 19.8% and 24.1% respectively. This negative momentum could indicate waning investor confidence or mean reversion after a 111% one-year gain.
- Inconsistent Profitability and Margin Pressure: While gross margin improved to 61.3% in Q1 2026, net margin swung to -18.3% due to non-operating items. Operating margin was strong at 52.5%, but the bottom-line volatility makes earnings less predictable and may deter some investors.
- High Sensitivity to Gold Price Fluctuations: SSRM's revenue is heavily tied to gold and silver prices, which are volatile and influenced by macro factors like interest rates and geopolitical events. A sustained decline in gold prices could significantly impact revenue and profitability.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSRM is in a strong long-term uptrend, with the stock up 111.0% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.4% gain. The current price of $25.57 sits at 53.6% of its 52-week range ($11.70 to $36.52), indicating it is closer to the midpoint than the extremes. This positioning suggests the stock has room to run but is not overextended, as it remains well below its 52-week high of $36.52. Short-term momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock declining 19.5% over the past month and 19.5% over the past three months, diverging from the strong one-year trend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or mean reversion, especially given the relative strength versus the S&P 500 has weakened by 19.8% over one month. The RSI is not provided, but the sharp decline suggests oversold conditions may be emerging. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $11.70, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $36.52. A breakout above $36.52 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $11.70 would be a bearish reversal. With a beta of 0.88, SSRM is slightly less volatile than the overall market, meaning it may not amplify broad market moves as much as higher-beta peers.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
+118.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.6% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -5.9% | +5.5% |
| 6m | +6.9% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +118.2% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +30.5% | +9.6% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has grown strongly, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $581.8 million, up 83.8% year-over-year from $316.6 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by higher gold and silver production and prices, with gold contributing $400.1 million and silver $159.5 million in the latest segment data. However, the sequential trend shows revenue decelerating from Q4 2025's $521.7 million, and the company reported a net loss of $106.5 million in Q1 2026, compared to net income of $58.8 million in Q1 2025. The company's profitability has been inconsistent; gross margin improved to 61.3% in Q1 2026 from 47.2% in Q1 2025, but net margin turned negative at -18.3% due to a large income tax expense of $59.8 million. Operating margin was strong at 52.5%, indicating core operations are profitable, but the bottom line was impacted by non-operating items. The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.12 and a current ratio of 2.08, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $482.3 million, and the company generated $260.8 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026 alone. ROE stands at 11.5%, reflecting decent returns on equity, though the recent net loss will pressure this metric.
Quarterly Revenue
$581778000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+83.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482307514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Since net income was negative in the most recent quarter, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 2.68x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $1.99 billion) is approximately 2.23x, implying the market expects revenue growth to continue. Compared to the industry average PS ratio (not provided, but gold miners typically trade around 2-4x sales), SSRM's 2.68x is in line with mid-tier peers. The company's EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is attractive relative to the sector, suggesting undervaluation on an earnings basis. Historically, SSRM's PS ratio has ranged from 4.13x (Q1 2024) to 18.36x (Q3 2022), so the current 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range. This low multiple could indicate a value opportunity, especially given the company's strong cash flow and recent asset sale, but it may also reflect the market's skepticism about the sustainability of earnings given the recent loss.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: SSRM's primary financial risk is its inconsistent profitability. Despite a 52.5% operating margin in Q1 2026, the company reported a net loss of $106.5M due to a $59.8M income tax expense, swinging from a $58.8M profit a year ago. This volatility makes earnings unpredictable and could pressure the stock if it persists. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.12, but the company's reliance on gold prices means a 10% drop in gold could significantly reduce revenue and cash flow. Additionally, the massive share buyback program, while bullish, consumes cash that could otherwise be used for growth or debt reduction.
Market & Competitive Risks: SSRM trades at a PS ratio of 2.68x, near the low end of its historical range (4.13x-18.36x), which could imply value but also reflects market skepticism. The stock's beta of 0.88 indicates slightly less volatility than the market, but it is still sensitive to gold price movements and macro factors like interest rates. The recent 19.5% monthly decline suggests negative momentum, and the relative strength versus the S&P 500 has weakened by 19.8% over one month. Competitive risks include other mid-tier gold producers with lower costs or better growth profiles, which could attract investor capital away from SSRM.
Worst-Case Scenario: A perfect storm would involve a sharp decline in gold prices (e.g., to $1,500/oz), coupled with operational issues at the Marigold or Seabee mines, and a failure to return to net profitability. In this scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $11.70, representing a 54.2% loss from the current price of $25.57. This downside is consistent with the stock's historical max drawdown of -31.28%, but a gold price collapse could exceed that. Investors could lose up to 54% in this adverse scenario.
FAQ
The key risks are: (1) Financial risk: Inconsistent profitability, as evidenced by the Q1 2026 net loss of $106.5M despite strong revenue. (2) Commodity price risk: SSRM's revenue is highly dependent on gold and silver prices; a 10% drop in gold could materially impact earnings. (3) Operational risk: Any disruptions at the Marigold, Seabee, or Puna mines could hurt production and costs. (4) Market risk: The stock has high short-term volatility (19.5% monthly decline) and a beta of 0.88, meaning it can fall sharply in a market downturn. The most severe risk is a sustained gold price decline below $1,800/oz, which could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $11.70, a 54% loss from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with analysts expecting a target range of $39.00 to $48.00, averaging $41.40 (61.9% upside). The base case (50% probability) sees the stock reaching $36-$41.40, driven by stable gold prices and a return to net profitability. The bull case (30% probability) targets $41.40-$48.00, assuming a gold rally and strong operational execution. The bear case (20% probability) sees the stock falling to $20-$25.57, or even lower to $11.70, if gold prices drop and losses persist. The most likely scenario is the base case, where SSRM benefits from its strategic pivot and buyback, but the key assumption is that the company returns to consistent net income.
SSRM appears undervalued based on several metrics. The trailing PS ratio of 2.68x is near the low end of its historical range of 4.13x to 18.36x, suggesting the market is pricing in pessimism. The EV/EBITDA of 6.41x is attractive compared to the gold mining sector, which often trades at 8-12x. The P/CF ratio of 9.26x also indicates reasonable valuation relative to cash flow generation. However, the negative net margin in Q1 2026 complicates the picture; on a trailing PE basis, the stock is not meaningful due to the loss. Compared to peers, SSRM's valuation implies the market expects continued operational challenges, but if the company returns to profitability, the stock could re-rate significantly higher.
SSRM appears to be a good buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a bullish view on gold. The stock offers a 61.9% upside to the average analyst target of $41.40, supported by strong revenue growth (83.8% YoY) and a low PS ratio of 2.68x. However, the recent net loss of $106.5M in Q1 2026 and a 19.5% monthly decline introduce risk. For long-term investors who believe gold prices will remain elevated and that SSRM's operational improvements will translate to net profits, the stock is attractively valued. Short-term traders should be cautious given the negative momentum. Overall, it is a good buy for those willing to tolerate near-term volatility for potential significant upside.
SSRM is better suited for long-term investment (12+ months) given its growth trajectory, valuation support, and strategic catalysts like the buyback. The stock's beta of 0.88 suggests it is slightly less volatile than the market, but the recent 19.5% monthly decline highlights short-term risk. Long-term investors can benefit from the 61.9% upside to analyst targets and the potential for multiple expansion as profitability improves. Short-term traders may find the stock attractive for mean-reversion plays, but the negative momentum and low liquidity (short ratio 2.38) make it risky. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the buyback and operational improvements to materialize.