Coeur Mining
CDE
$18.48
+1.82%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of precious minerals, primarily gold and silver, with operations across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company operates as a mid-tier producer in the gold mining industry, distinguished by its portfolio of assets including the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington mines. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's extreme sensitivity to precious metal price volatility, as evidenced by recent headlines attributing sharp price moves to fluctuations in gold and silver, alongside a debate over valuation following a significant acquisition and subsequent efforts to strengthen its balance sheet and return capital to shareholders.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$18.48
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. CDE is a fundamentally improved company caught in a volatile commodity cycle, making its current valuation fair but its near-term path highly uncertain. The bullish analyst sentiment (Outperform/Buy) and implied upside from the forward P/E support a constructive view, but the significant near-term risks warrant caution.
Supporting Evidence: The recommendation is backed by four key data points: 1) The forward P/E of 8.61x is attractive relative to the trailing P/E of 19.33x and suggests embedded growth, 2) Revenue growth of 120.9% YoY is exceptional, 3) Gross margin expansion to 53.7% shows strong operational execution, and 4) The generation of $665.7M in TTM free cash flow provides a substantial margin of safety. Compared to a typical gold miner, its profitability metrics (28.3% net margin) are currently superior.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a sustained drop in gold/silver prices and a failure to meet the high growth expectations implied by the forward P/E. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the stock stabilizes above key technical support (e.g., $17) on weaker metal prices, demonstrating resilience, or if the forward P/E compresses further toward 6x without a deterioration in the earnings outlook. It would downgrade to a Sell if revenue growth decelerates sharply below 20% YoY or if quarterly free cash flow turns negative. Relative to its own history and the growth implied, the stock is fairly valued, not egregiously overvalued or clearly undervalued.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
CDE's investment case is bifurcated: superb company-specific fundamentals are shackled to an unpredictable commodity cycle. The low forward P/E and explosive growth justify a bullish stance on the business, but the stock's demonstrated 40%+ drawdowns and direct linkage to gold prices demand neutrality on the near-term equity. The stance would upgrade to bullish on evidence that operational cash flow can remain robust through a metal price downturn, validating its quality. It would turn bearish if the next quarterly report shows margin contraction despite stable metal prices, indicating execution issues. The base case of volatile range-trading is most probable over the next 12 months.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.02 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$24.02
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$15 - $24
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage appears limited with only one analyst providing estimates in the dataset, though institutional ratings show activity from several firms. The consensus sentiment from recent institutional actions leans bullish, with ratings like 'Outperform' from RBC Capital and 'Buy' from Roth Capital and TD Securities, though a notable downgrade from 'Buy' to 'Hold' by Canaccord Genuity in February 2026 introduces a note of caution. The single analyst's revenue estimate for the next period averages $7.96 billion, with a wide range from $7.07 billion to $9.29 billion, and an EPS estimate averaging $1.50, ranging from $1.28 to $1.82; this wide target spread signals high uncertainty regarding future financial performance, likely tied to volatile commodity price forecasts and execution risks post-acquisition.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The evidence for CDE presents a classic tension between powerful fundamental improvement and extreme commodity-driven volatility. The bull case is strongly supported by explosive revenue growth, margin expansion, and a fortress balance sheet. The bear case hinges on the stock's demonstrated vulnerability to precious metal price swings and the risk of valuation compression if growth expectations are not met. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence due to the concrete, company-specific improvements in profitability and financial health. However, the single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's operational excellence and strong cash flow generation can sustainably decouple the stock's performance from the volatile gold and silver markets. The resolution of this tension will determine if CDE trades as a high-quality mining operator or remains a leveraged bet on commodity prices.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue and Earnings Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 120.9% YoY to $674.8M, while net income reached $215M. This demonstrates powerful operational leverage to high precious metal prices and successful execution post-acquisition.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: The company boasts a robust current ratio of 2.0, a low debt-to-equity of 0.11, and generated $665.7M in TTM free cash flow. This financial strength supports capital returns and shields against commodity price volatility.
- Significant Margin Expansion: Gross margin expanded from 38.6% in Q1 2025 to 53.7% in Q4 2025. This 15.1 percentage point improvement indicates rising operational efficiency and strong pricing power for its gold and silver production.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 8.61x, based on an estimated EPS of $1.50, is less than half the trailing P/E of 19.33x. This suggests the market is pricing in substantial future earnings growth at a reasonable multiple.
Bearish
- Extreme Sensitivity to Gold/Silver Prices: News directly links stock moves to precious metal volatility, with a recent -28.84% 3-month return coinciding with metal price weakness. The stock's beta of 1.242 confirms it is 24% more volatile than the market.
- Valuation Vulnerable to Growth Slowdown: The trailing P/E of 19.33x is at the high end of its recent positive range. If the explosive 120.9% revenue growth decelerates sharply, this multiple could compress rapidly, as hinted by Canaccord's downgrade.
- Recent Sharp Technical Correction: The stock is down 28.84% over three months and trades 69% of its 52-week range, having retreated significantly from the $27.77 high. This signals waning momentum and potential profit-taking after a 137% 1-year run.
- High Uncertainty in Analyst Forecasts: The single analyst's revenue estimate for the next period has a wide range from $7.07B to $9.29B, and EPS from $1.28 to $1.82. This large spread reflects significant uncertainty around commodity prices and execution post-acquisition.
CDE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile but overall strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +137.35%. As of the latest close at $19.32, the price is trading approximately 69% of its 52-week range ($7.87 to $27.77), indicating it has retreated significantly from recent highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a cooling off from peak momentum but not a breakdown. Recent momentum, however, has been sharply negative, with the stock down 28.84% over the past three months and up 11.48% over the past month, signaling a significant short-term correction that is diverging from the powerful longer-term uptrend, likely driven by profit-taking and precious metal price weakness. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $7.87, with immediate resistance near the recent high of $27.77; a sustained break below the $17-$18 level (recent lows) could signal a deeper correction, while reclaiming the $25+ area would suggest a resumption of the uptrend. The stock's beta of 1.242 indicates it is approximately 24% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment given its commodity-driven price swings and a recent maximum drawdown of -40.44%.
Beta
1.24
1.24x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+106.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.9% | +4.6% |
| 3m | -18.4% | +12.6% |
| 6m | +16.5% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +106.3% | +27.0% |
| ytd | +5.3% | +11.0% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $674.8 million representing a 120.9% year-over-year increase, and sequential quarterly revenue from Q1 to Q4 2025 showing a clear upward trajectory from $360.1 million to $674.8 million, driven by strong precious metal prices and operational performance. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $215.0 million and a gross margin of 53.7%, reflecting significant margin expansion from the 38.6% gross margin in Q1 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency and leverage to higher metal prices. The balance sheet is healthy with a strong current ratio of 2.0 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, while the company generated substantial free cash flow of $665.7 million (TTM) and an operating cash flow of $374.6 million in Q4 2025, providing ample internal funding for growth and capital returns without reliance on excessive external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$674847000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.20%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.53%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$665717000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Given the positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 19.33x, while the forward P/E (based on estimated EPS) is significantly lower at 8.61x, indicating the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. Compared to typical gold mining peers, a trailing P/E in the high-teens is not excessive, but the forward multiple suggests the stock is pricing in continued strong profitability, though the wide gap between trailing and forward implies high growth expectations that must be met. Historically, the stock's own trailing P/E has fluctuated wildly, from negative figures in 2023-2024 to a recent high of 19.33x; the current multiple is at the higher end of its recent positive range, suggesting the market has priced in the recent earnings recovery and is looking for sustained performance to justify this level.
PE
19.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -30x~373x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: CDE's primary financial risk is its extreme earnings volatility tied to gold and silver prices, as seen in its net margin swinging from negative in early 2024 to 28.3% recently. While the balance sheet is currently strong with a 0.11 debt-to-equity ratio, a sustained downturn in metal prices could pressure cash flows needed to service its operations and growth projects. The company's revenue is 100% concentrated in precious metals, leaving no diversification to buffer against a sector-wide downturn. Furthermore, the wide range in analyst EPS estimates ($1.28 to $1.82) underscores high uncertainty in future financial performance, making forecasting difficult.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's valuation is at a premium, with a trailing P/E of 19.33x, which is vulnerable to compression if the growth narrative falters or if sector-wide multiple contraction occurs. As a mid-tier producer, it faces competitive pressures from larger, lower-cost miners and is subject to regulatory and geopolitical risks across its U.S., Canadian, and Mexican operations. The stock's beta of 1.242 indicates it is highly sensitive to broader market sentiment, and recent news highlights its acute sensitivity to U.S. dollar strength and interest rate concerns, which directly impact gold prices. A sector rotation away from commodities or growth stocks could trigger disproportionate selling.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a sharp, sustained decline in gold and silver prices coupled with operational setbacks at a key mine. This would crush the high-margin profitability demonstrated in Q4 2025, leading to significant earnings misses, analyst downgrades, and a rapid de-rating of the stock's multiple. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically retest its 52-week low of $7.87, representing a downside of approximately -59% from the current price of $19.32. The recent maximum drawdown of -40.44% provides a recent precedent for severe, rapid declines driven by commodity price moves.
FAQ
The key risks, in order of severity, are: 1) Commodity Price Risk: The stock's performance is directly tied to volatile gold and silver prices (beta 1.242). 2) Valuation Risk: The trailing P/E of 19.33x could compress rapidly if growth slows. 3) Execution Risk: High uncertainty is reflected in the wide analyst EPS range ($1.28-$1.82). 4) Sector/Macro Risk: The stock is sensitive to U.S. dollar strength and interest rate movements, which drive metal prices. There is no dividend to offset these volatility risks.
The 12-month forecast for CDE is highly scenario-dependent. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $21 and $25, assuming it meets EPS estimates near $1.50 and gold prices remain stable. The bull case (30% probability) targets $28 to $32+ on a gold price surge and stellar execution. The bear case (20% probability) warns of a drop toward $8-$15 if gold collapses and earnings disappoint. The most likely outcome is the base case, but the wide ranges underscore the stock's dependency on unpredictable commodity markets.
CDE's valuation sends mixed signals. Its trailing P/E of 19.33x is at the higher end of its own recent history, suggesting the market has priced in the recent earnings recovery. However, its forward P/E of 8.61x is significantly lower, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth (to an estimated $1.50 EPS) and is offering a reasonable entry point for that future. Compared to typical gold mining peers, a forward multiple in the high single-digits is not excessive. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued relative to its growth prospects but carries a premium that is vulnerable if those prospects dim.
CDE is a good buy for investors specifically seeking leveraged exposure to gold and silver prices and who can tolerate high volatility. The stock offers an attractive forward P/E of 8.61x based on strong estimated earnings growth, a robust balance sheet, and exceptional recent revenue growth of 120.9%. However, it is not a good buy for risk-averse investors, as its price is highly sensitive to commodity swings, with a -59% downside risk to its 52-week low. It is best bought on weakness during corrections in the precious metals sector, with a long-term horizon.
CDE is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon of 3-5 years rather than short-term trading. While its high beta (1.242) creates short-term trading volatility, a long-term horizon allows investors to ride out commodity cycles and benefit from the company's operational improvements and potential resource growth. The lack of a dividend eliminates its appeal for income-focused long-term holders. Short-term traders can capitalize on its volatility but must actively manage positions around gold price movements and technical levels. A minimum holding period of 18-24 months is suggested to evaluate a full cycle.