Coeur Mining
CDE
$18.86
-2.43%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of precious minerals, primarily gold and silver, across its operations in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company is a mid-tier producer in the gold mining industry, operating key assets like the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington mines. The current investor narrative centers on its significant operational turnaround, as evidenced by surging profitability and a strengthened balance sheet, which has driven a massive stock price rally over the past year, though recent price volatility highlights ongoing sensitivity to fluctuations in gold and silver prices.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$18.86
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. CDE is a compelling turnaround story that has already seen its stock price appreciate 238% in a year, and while fundamentals have improved dramatically, the current valuation appears to fairly reflect near-term prospects, balancing strong growth against high volatility and commodity dependence.
Supporting Evidence: The recommendation is anchored by four key data points: 1) The forward P/E of 8.03x is attractive, but it is predicated on EPS nearly doubling to $2.55, which is not guaranteed. 2) Revenue growth of 120.94% YoY is exceptional but likely unsustainable at that pace. 3) Profitability metrics (ROE 17.68%, Net Margin 28.3%) are strong but commodity-linked. 4) The stock trades at 73% of its 52-week range, having retreated from highs, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a clear directional catalyst.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a sharp decline in gold/silver prices and a failure to meet lofty forward earnings estimates. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if the forward P/E compressed further toward 6x without a deterioration in the commodity outlook, or if the stock established a firm base above $20 with sustained FCF generation. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerated sharply below 20% YoY or if net margins contracted significantly. The stock is currently fairly valued relative to its improved fundamentals but carries a premium due to its growth narrative, leaving it vulnerable to disappointment.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
CDE's outlook is bifurcated. The company's fundamental health is the best it has been in years, supported by strong cash flow and a clean balance sheet. However, the stock's massive rally has likely front-run much of the good news, embedding high expectations into its valuation. The path forward is heavily contingent on unpredictable commodity prices. The stance is neutral because the risk/reward appears balanced at current levels; the potential upside to the bull case is compelling but requires a perfect alignment of macro and micro factors, while the downside to the bear case is meaningful. We would upgrade to bullish on a pullback toward $16-$17 that improves the margin of safety, or downgrade to bearish on a breakdown below $15 that signals the operational story is cracking.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.52 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$24.52
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$15 - $25
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Coeur Mining is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap mining stock and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, leans bullish with actions like 'Outperform' and 'Buy' from firms like RBC Capital and Roth Capital, though a recent downgrade to 'Hold' from Canaccord Genuity in February 2026 introduces a note of caution. An average target price cannot be calculated from the provided data, so implied upside/downside to a consensus target is not available. The range of analyst estimates provides a signal on uncertainty and future assumptions. The estimated EPS range is wide, from a low of $2.18 to a high of $2.99, while the revenue estimate range spans from $7.06 billion to $9.01 billion. The high-end estimates likely assume sustained high gold/silver prices, flawless execution on production growth, and continued margin expansion. The low-end estimates may factor in potential operational setbacks, cost inflation, or a pullback in commodity prices. The recent pattern of analyst actions shows a generally stable bullish stance with one notable downgrade, reflecting some divergence in views on the sustainability of the rally after the stock's massive run-up.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The evidence for CDE presents a classic tension between a powerful fundamental turnaround and a valuation that appears to have priced in much of that success. The bull case, supported by explosive 121% revenue growth, a transformation to strong profitability, and a fortress balance sheet, is currently stronger on operational merits. However, the bear case, centered on extreme volatility (beta 1.33), a rich trailing valuation (P/E 19.33x), and inherent commodity price risk, presents a significant counterweight. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's newly demonstrated operational excellence and cash flow generation can sustainably justify its elevated multiple in the face of inevitable commodity price cycles, or if it remains a leveraged bet on gold and silver that will see its valuation compress when metal prices retreat.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue and Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 120.94% YoY to $674.85M, while net income reached $214.97M, yielding a robust net margin of 31.85%. This dramatic turnaround from net losses in early 2024 demonstrates successful operational execution and leverage to high precious metal prices.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: The company has a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and a strong current ratio of 2.0. It generated $665.72M in TTM free cash flow, providing ample liquidity for growth and shareholder returns, significantly de-risking the investment.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 8.03x, based on analyst EPS estimates of $2.55, is significantly lower than the trailing P/E of 19.33x. This implies the market is pricing in a near doubling of earnings, offering potential value if the company meets or exceeds these expectations.
- Massive Operational Turnaround Evident: Key profitability metrics have soared, with ROE at 17.68% and ROA at 13.22%, a stark improvement from negative or low historical levels. Gross margin expanded to 53.70% in Q4 2025 from 49.01% a year ago, showcasing improved cost control and pricing power.
Bearish
- Extreme Volatility and Price Sensitivity: With a beta of 1.328, CDE is 33% more volatile than the market. The stock is down 9.74% over the past three months despite a +237.98% 1-year gain, highlighting its acute sensitivity to gold/silver price swings and susceptibility to sharp corrections.
- Valuation at High End of Historical Range: The trailing P/E of 19.33x is near the higher end of its own historical valuation band (e.g., 13.17x at end of Q4 2025). This leaves little room for disappointment, as the stock price already reflects a continuation of the recent operational success.
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Recent Downgrade: Only 3 analysts cover the stock, leading to less efficient price discovery. A recent downgrade to 'Hold' (Canaccord Genuity, Feb 2026) introduces caution, signaling some Wall Street skepticism about the sustainability of the rally after the massive run-up.
- Revenue Concentration in Commodity Prices: The company's financial performance is entirely dependent on volatile gold and silver prices. Recent news directly links stock declines to falling metal prices, creating an unpredictable earnings stream that complicates long-term valuation.
CDE Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for Coeur Mining is a powerful, sustained uptrend over the past year, with the stock posting a staggering 1-year price change of +237.98%. As of the latest close of $20.38, the stock is trading at approximately 73% of its 52-week range ($5.21 to $27.77), indicating it has retreated meaningfully from recent highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a consolidation phase within a larger bull move. Recent momentum, however, shows signs of deceleration and divergence from the longer-term trend, with the stock down -9.74% over the past three months and up a more modest +5.82% over the past month, signaling a potential pause or pullback after the explosive rally. Short-term momentum is mixed, with a positive 1-month return of 5.82% but a negative 3-month return of -9.74%, indicating recent volatility and a struggle to maintain upward trajectory. This divergence from the powerful 1-year uptrend could signal a healthy consolidation or profit-taking phase, especially given the stock's high beta of 1.328, which makes it 33% more volatile than the broader market and prone to sharp swings on commodity price moves. The relative strength metrics confirm this recent underperformance, with a 3-month relative strength of -12.41% versus the SPY. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $27.77, which now serves as major resistance, and the 52-week low of $5.21 as ultimate support. A decisive breakout above the $27.77 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below key intermediate support near the $16-$17 level (seen in late March) could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's elevated beta of 1.328 underscores its high-risk, high-reward profile, meaning investors must be prepared for amplified volatility relative to the market, which is particularly relevant for position sizing and risk management in this cyclical sector.
Beta
1.33
1.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$5-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+221.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.0% | +8.5% |
| 3m | -27.8% | +2.8% |
| 6m | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| 1y | +221.8% | +32.3% |
| ytd | +7.5% | +3.9% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Coeur Mining's revenue trajectory shows robust growth and significant operational improvement. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $674.85 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 120.94% compared to the same quarter in 2024. This explosive growth is part of a clear multi-quarter acceleration, with revenue climbing sequentially from $360.06 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 peak, driven by higher production and realized metal prices. Segment data indicates gold contributed $424.8 million and silver $250.04 million in the latest period, with both commodities benefiting from the favorable price environment. The company's profitability has transformed dramatically, moving from net losses in early 2024 to substantial net income. The Q4 2025 net income was $214.97 million, yielding a robust net margin of 31.85%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 53.70%, up from 49.01% in the year-ago quarter, indicating strong cost control and pricing power. This represents a major expansion from the negative margins seen in Q1 2024 (-13.67%), showcasing a successful turnaround towards sustainable profitability, which is critical for a mining company in this capital-intensive industry. The balance sheet and cash flow position have strengthened considerably. The company generated substantial free cash flow of $665.72 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing ample internal funding for growth and debt reduction. The debt-to-equity ratio is a very conservative 0.11, indicating minimal financial leverage and low risk. Furthermore, the current ratio of 2.0 demonstrates strong short-term liquidity. The return on equity (ROE) of 17.68% and return on assets (ROA) of 13.22% reflect efficient use of capital and assets post-turnaround, marking a stark improvement from historically low or negative returns.
Quarterly Revenue
$674847000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.20%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.53%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$665717000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 19.33x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 8.03x. This substantial gap implies the market expects a near doubling of earnings, aligning with analyst EPS estimates averaging $2.55 for the coming period, which would represent a major increase from the trailing twelve-month EPS of approximately $0.05. Compared to industry averages, Coeur Mining's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 19.33x is difficult to compare directly without a provided industry average, but its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 5.47x and EV/EBITDA of 10.89x are key metrics for resource companies. A premium or discount justification hinges on its superior growth profile and dramatically improved margins compared to its historical performance and potentially the sector, though specific industry comps are not provided in the data. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 19.33x sits well above its own historical range observed in the provided data, which has seen periods of negative earnings and PEs in the low teens or single digits during profitable quarters. For instance, the PE ratio was 13.17x at the end of Q4 2025. Trading near the higher end of its own historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in a continuation of the recent operational success and strong commodity prices, leaving little room for disappointment.
PE
19.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -30x~373x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: While the balance sheet is currently strong (D/E 0.11), the primary financial risk is earnings volatility driven entirely by commodity prices, not operational missteps. The company's net margin of 31.85% in Q4 2025 is exceptional but is a direct function of high realized metal prices; a 10-15% drop in gold/silver could rapidly erode this profitability. Furthermore, the wide range of analyst revenue estimates ($7.06B to $9.01B) underscores the high uncertainty in forward financial projections, making the stock difficult to model with confidence.
Market & Competitive Risks: The paramount market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 19.33x, which is elevated for a miner and high relative to its own recent history, CDE is vulnerable to multiple contraction if growth expectations are not met or if investor sentiment shifts away from cyclical commodities. Its high beta of 1.328 confirms it is a leveraged play on market and sector movements. Competitive risks are inherent but secondary; as a price-taker, its fortunes are tied more to macro factors (USD strength, real rates) than to direct competition.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a sustained downturn in gold and silver prices coinciding with an operational setback at a key mine. This could trigger a rapid unwind of the optimistic valuation, leading analyst EPS estimates to trend toward the low end ($2.18) and the stock to re-test its 52-week low. From the current price of $20.38, a decline to the 52-week low of $5.21 represents a catastrophic loss of approximately -74%. A more realistic, severe bear-case downside could see the stock fall to the $13-$15 range (aligning with recent support breaks), representing a potential loss of -25% to -35% from current levels.
FAQ
The key risks, in order of severity, are: 1) Commodity Price Risk: Earnings are directly tied to volatile gold/silver prices (Q4 revenue grew 121% YoY on high prices). 2) Valuation Risk: The trailing P/E of 19.33x leaves no room for error; multiple compression is a major threat. 3) Operational & Execution Risk: Meeting the high forward EPS estimate of $2.55 requires flawless execution across all mines. 4) Market Risk: The stock's high beta of 1.328 means it will fall more than the market in a downturn, as seen in its -9.74% 3-month return versus the SPY's +2.67%.
Our 12-month forecast outlines three scenarios with associated probabilities. The Base Case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $20 and $25, assuming CDE meets consensus EPS of $2.55 and gold prices remain stable. The Bull Case (30% probability) targets $28 to $32, requiring a gold price rally and EPS hitting the high estimate of $2.99. The Bear Case (20% probability) warns of a drop to $13-$16 if metal prices fall and earnings disappoint. The Base Case is most likely, hinging on the critical assumption that the company can deliver on the substantial earnings growth embedded in its forward P/E of 8.03x.
CDE's valuation sends mixed signals. On a trailing basis, its P/E of 19.33x appears rich, especially relative to its own recent history (e.g., 13.17x at end of Q4 2025). However, its forward P/E of 8.03x, based on analyst EPS estimates of $2.55, suggests significant undervaluation if those earnings materialize. This gap implies the market is pricing in a near doubling of profits. Compared to sector peers, its Price-to-Sales of 5.47x and EV/EBITDA of 10.89x are likely at a premium, justified by its superior recent growth. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued on current results, but potentially undervalued on forward expectations—making the accuracy of those earnings estimates the critical variable.
CDE is a good buy for investors specifically seeking leveraged exposure to gold and silver prices through a company with a strengthened balance sheet (D/E 0.11) and strong cash flow ($666M TTM FCF). However, it is not a good buy for risk-averse investors. The stock has already rallied 238% in a year, its trailing P/E of 19.33x is elevated, and its high beta of 1.328 guarantees volatile swings. It could be a good buy on a significant pullback (e.g., toward $16-$17) that improves the risk/reward, but at current levels near $20.38, it is fairly valued and best suited for a Hold.
CDE is more suitable for medium- to long-term investors who can weather extreme volatility (beta 1.328) and are bullish on the long-term trajectory of precious metals. Its lack of a dividend and earnings sensitivity to commodity cycles make it a poor fit for short-term trading or income-seeking portfolios. Given the operational turnaround is recent and needs time to be sustained across multiple quarters, a minimum holding period of 12-18 months is suggested to allow the fundamental story to play out and to smooth over the inevitable short-term price swings driven by gold market headlines.