Coeur Mining
CDE
$19.88
-3.40%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a precious metals producer focused on the exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its four cornerstone operating assets — Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington — spanning the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and the U.S. contributing the largest share of revenue. The company is a mid-tier North American precious metals miner rather than a diversified major, meaning its equity story is fundamentally a leveraged play on gold and silver prices, with operational execution at Rochester's expansion and reserve growth serving as the key differentiators versus peers. The current investor narrative is dominated by a powerful margin and cash-flow inflection: quarterly revenue has compounded from roughly $360 million in Q1 2025 to $856 million in Q1 2026, EBITDA has more than quadrupled over the same span, and free cash flow has turned decisively positive, prompting management to strengthen the balance sheet and return capital following a major acquisition. At the same time, the stock has become a battleground over valuation and macro sensitivity, with recent headlines oscillating between enthusiasm over reserve value exceeding market capitalization and sharp selloffs tied to falling gold and silver prices, a strengthening dollar, and inflation-driven rate concerns — a debate that intensified after the shares more than doubled off their 52-week low before pulling back from the highs.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$19.88
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Coeur Mining presents a compelling buy rating, anchored by a consensus analyst recommendation of 'buy' with an average target price of $23.77, implying 15.5% upside from the current $20.58. The core thesis is that the company has undergone a transformational earnings inflection, with Q1 2026 revenue up 137.8% YoY and net income up 640%, yet the stock trades at a forward PE of just 9.99x, a steep discount to its trailing PE of 19.4x and to historical mining multiples. This disconnect suggests the market is undervaluing the company's earnings power if gold and silver prices remain elevated.
Supporting evidence includes the explosive revenue growth trajectory, with five consecutive quarters of sequential increases, and a fortress balance sheet with debt-to-equity of 0.110 and cash of $843.2 million. Profitability has inflected dramatically, with net margin at 28.8% and ROE at 17.7%, while free cash flow of $914.8 million demonstrates the business is now self-funding. The forward PE of 9.99x is particularly attractive given the estimated EPS growth from $0.052 trailing to $0.93 forward, and the PEG ratio of 0.038, though distorted, underscores the growth potential. Analyst estimates for revenue average $7.96 billion, further supporting the growth narrative.
However, the rating is not without risks. The biggest threats are a sustained decline in precious metals prices, which would rapidly erode revenue and margins, and the elevated price-to-book and price-to-sales multiples, which leave little room for error. Additionally, the wide analyst target range ($18 to $35) signals uncertainty. The rating would upgrade to a strong buy if the forward PE remains below 10x while revenue growth accelerates above 150% YoY, or downgrade to hold if gold prices fall below $2,000/oz or if gross margins decline below 40%. Relative to its history and peers, the stock appears undervalued on forward earnings but overvalued on asset and sales bases, making it a speculative buy for investors with a high risk tolerance.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
Coeur Mining presents a compelling bullish case, driven by its transformational earnings growth and attractive forward valuation. The company has demonstrated exceptional operating leverage, with revenue more than doubling YoY and net income surging 640%, yet the stock trades at a forward PE below 10x. The balance sheet is robust, with minimal debt and substantial cash, and analysts are overwhelmingly positive with a consensus buy rating. However, the stock's high beta and sensitivity to precious metals prices introduce significant volatility, and the elevated price-to-book and price-to-sales multiples suggest limited margin for error. I would upgrade to high confidence if gold prices stabilize above $2,200/oz and the company reports another quarter of sequential revenue growth, but I would downgrade to neutral if metals prices decline sharply or if gross margins fall below 40%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.77 and implied upside of +19.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.77
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+19.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$18 - $35
Analyst target range
Coeur Mining is covered by 11 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.73 on what appears to be a 1-to-5 scale (where 1 is Strong Buy), indicating a solidly bullish but not unanimous street view. The average target price is $23.77, which against the current price of $20.58 implies roughly 15.5% upside to consensus, a meaningful but not dramatic expected return that suggests analysts see the stock as fairly-to-attractively valued after its recent run rather than deeply undervalued. The consensus leans bullish in direction but the magnitude of expected upside is moderate, which is consistent with a stock that has already rallied 33.9% over the past year and 19.7% over three months — much of the easy money from the earnings inflection appears to already be reflected in the price. The estimated EPS average of $0.93 for the forward period, with a range of $0.77 to $1.21, underpins the forward PE of 9.99x and shows analysts expect a substantial earnings step-up from the trailing $0.052 figure, though the dispersion in estimates reflects genuine uncertainty about cost inflation and production volumes. The target range is wide, spanning from a low of $18.00 to a high of $35.00 — a 94% spread between the extremes — which signals high uncertainty and low conviction on the precise earnings path. The $35.00 high target, roughly 70% above the current price, would require a combination of sustained high gold and silver prices, successful integration of the recent acquisition, and likely multiple expansion as the market re-rates CDE toward premium mid-tier producer status. The $18.00 low target, about 12.5% below the current price, prices in a scenario of commodity price retreat, margin compression from rising input costs, or disappointment on production guidance — a plausible outcome given the stock's demonstrated sensitivity to metals prices. Institutional ratings activity shows a constructive recent shift: Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy from Hold on April 29, 2026, reversing its February 20 downgrade to Hold from Buy, while RBC Capital, Roth Capital, TD Securities, and BMO Capital have all maintained Buy or Outperform ratings over the past year. The pattern of maintained bullish ratings punctuated by a single round-trip upgrade/downgrade suggests analysts are broadly aligned on the thesis but sensitive to near-term price volatility, and the absence of any Sell ratings indicates the street sees the risk/reward as skewed to the upside despite the wide target dispersion.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bull case for Coeur Mining is compelling, driven by explosive revenue and earnings growth, a fortress balance sheet, and a forward PE below 10x. However, the bear case is equally potent, centered on the stock's extreme sensitivity to precious metals prices, elevated valuation multiples on book and sales, and high volatility. Currently, the bull evidence appears stronger, as the company has demonstrated five consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth and has turned decisively cash-flow positive, with analysts unanimously bullish. The single most important tension is whether gold and silver prices can sustain their recent highs; if they do, the forward earnings discount is justified and the stock could re-rate higher, but any sustained commodity correction would quickly reverse the top-line momentum and expose the elevated P/B and P/S multiples.
Bullish
- Explosive revenue and earnings growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 137.8% YoY to $856.2 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of sequential growth. Net income reached $246.8 million, a 640% increase from $33.4 million in Q1 2025, demonstrating powerful operating leverage.
- Forward PE below 10x despite growth: The forward PE of 9.99x is remarkably low for a company growing revenue at triple-digit rates, and it represents a 48% discount to the trailing PE of 19.4x. This implies the market expects earnings to nearly double, yet the stock trades at a deep discount to the broader market and historical mining multiples.
- Fortress balance sheet with ample cash: Debt-to-equity is just 0.110 and the current ratio is 2.00, while cash has grown tenfold to $843.2 million from $79.4 million a year ago. This provides substantial firepower for debt reduction, acquisitions, or shareholder returns.
- Strong free cash flow generation: Trailing free cash flow is $914.8 million, with Q1 2026 FCF of $266.8 million comfortably covering $74.1 million of capex. The business is now self-funding and has turned decisively cash-flow positive.
Bearish
- Extreme sensitivity to precious metals prices: Revenue is entirely dependent on gold and silver prices, with a 57/43 split. Recent news highlights sharp selloffs tied to falling metals prices, a strengthening dollar, and inflation concerns, underscoring the lack of diversification.
- Elevated valuation on book and sales: Price-to-book of 3.42x is triple the 1.15x seen in Q1 2026, and price-to-sales of 5.47x is rich for a commodity producer. These multiples suggest the stock is no longer cheap on asset or revenue bases, leaving little margin for error.
- High volatility and drawdown risk: Beta of 1.389 means the stock is 39% more volatile than the S&P 500, and the maximum drawdown of -47.85% over the past year shows it can lose nearly half its value in a downturn. The current price is only 51% of the way up its 52-week range, indicating significant swings.
- Margin compression in latest quarter: Gross margin fell to 46.2% in Q1 2026 from 53.7% in Q4 2025, as cost of revenue rose to $460.4 million. This highlights the risk of cost inflation and grade variability eroding profitability even as revenue scales.
CDE Technical Analysis
Coeur Mining is in a sustained but highly volatile uptrend, with the shares up 33.9% over the past year and 17.3% year-to-date, though the current price of $20.58 sits only about 51% of the way up its 52-week range of $13.55 to $27.77. That mid-range positioning is unusual for a stock with a positive 1-year return and signals that the trend has been punctuated by a violent drawdown — the maximum drawdown of -47.85% confirms the stock surrendered nearly half its peak value at some point in the past year. The practical read is that CDE is neither an overextended momentum name pinned to its highs nor a washed-out falling knife at its lows, but a high-beta vehicle (beta of 1.389) in the middle of a wide, news-driven trading band where precious metals prices, not company-specific execution, set the near-term tone. Momentum has clearly re-accelerated off the summer trough: the stock is up 9.47% over the past month and 19.65% over three months, a sharp reversal from the 6-month change of just 1.93%, which tells us the bulk of the half-year gain was given back in the spring and early-summer decline before being rebuilt since August. This divergence — strong 1-month and 3-month performance against a nearly flat 6-month print — is characteristic of a V-shaped recovery rather than a steady trend, and the relative strength figures reinforce it: CDE beat SPY by 10.53 percentage points over the past month and 16.61 points over three months, but lagged the index by 13.47 points over six months. The August surge from roughly $14.16 on July 20 to $22.21 on August 27 was a 57% move in about five weeks, and the subsequent consolidation in the $20-$22 zone suggests the market is digesting that advance rather than immediately extending it. Key resistance sits at the 52-week high of $27.77, roughly 35% above the current price, and a decisive breakout above that level would confirm a new leg higher and likely require a fresh catalyst such as a gold price breakout or a positive reserve/production update. Support is anchored at the 52-week low of $13.55, about 34% below the current price, with the more immediate psychological and structural floor in the $14-$15 area where the July basing occurred. With a beta of 1.389, CDE is roughly 39% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning position sizing should be materially smaller than for a market-weight name, and the 1.23 short ratio indicates short sellers are not aggressively positioned against the stock, removing one potential source of squeeze-driven upside but also limiting the risk of a violent short-covering rally.
Beta
1.39
1.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+28.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.7% | -2.0% |
| 3m | +5.8% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +3.2% | +15.0% |
| 1y | +28.0% | +15.7% |
| ytd | +13.3% | +11.6% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Coeur's revenue trajectory has been nothing short of transformational: Q1 2026 revenue reached $856.2 million, up 137.8% year-over-year from $360.1 million in Q1 2025, and the sequential progression tells an even more striking story — from $305.4 million in Q4 2024 to $480.7 million in Q2 2025, $554.6 million in Q3 2025, $674.8 million in Q4 2025, and $856.2 million in Q1 2026. That is five consecutive quarters of sequential growth, with the most recent quarter alone representing a 26.9% increase over the prior quarter, indicating that growth is not merely stable but still accelerating. The revenue mix is led by gold at $475.2 million and silver at $362.2 million, a roughly 57/43 split that gives the company meaningful dual exposure to both precious metals, though it also means there is no diversification away from the metals complex. The critical caveat for the investment case is that this revenue explosion is overwhelmingly price-driven rather than volume-driven — precious metals producers are price-takers, so the durability of this growth depends entirely on gold and silver prices holding near current levels, and any sustained commodity correction would reverse the top-line momentum quickly. Profitability has inflected just as dramatically: Q1 2026 net income was $246.8 million on a 28.8% net margin, with gross margin of 46.2% and operating margin of 36.3%, and the quarterly net income progression from $33.4 million in Q1 2025 to $70.7 million, $266.8 million, $215.0 million, and $246.8 million shows a business that has crossed decisively into high-margin territory. Gross margin, however, has been somewhat volatile — 38.6% in Q1 2025, 50.1% in Q2 2025, 55.1% in Q3 2025, 53.7% in Q4 2025, and 46.2% in Q1 2026 — with the most recent quarter's compression reflecting a higher cost of revenue of $460.4 million against $395.2 million of gross profit, a reminder that mining cost inflation and grade variability can erode margins even as revenue scales. The trailing gross margin of 39.3% and net margin of 28.3% are healthy for the gold mining industry, where all-in sustaining costs are the true profitability benchmark, and the 17.7% ROE and 7.1% ROA confirm the company is now generating genuine returns on capital rather than destroying it. The balance sheet is a clear strength: debt-to-equity of just 0.110 and a current ratio of 2.00 indicate a conservatively financed company with ample liquidity, a dramatic improvement from the 0.54 debt-to-equity and 0.83 current ratio seen in late 2024. Free cash flow on a trailing basis is $914.8 million, and the quarterly progression from $17.6 million in Q1 2025 to $146.1 million, $188.7 million, $313.3 million, and $266.8 million in Q1 2026 shows the business is now self-funding, with operating cash flow of $340.8 million in the latest quarter comfortably covering $74.1 million of capital expenditure. Cash on hand has grown from $79.4 million in Q1 2025 to $843.2 million in Q1 2026, a tenfold increase that gives management substantial firepower for debt reduction, acquisitions, or shareholder returns, and the absence of a dividend (payout ratio of 0) means all of this cash is being retained for reinvestment or balance-sheet strengthening.
Quarterly Revenue
$856192000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+137.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$914841000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Because Coeur is solidly profitable with trailing net income of $246.8 million in the latest quarter and positive EPS of $0.052 on a trailing basis, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric, and the trailing PE of 19.4x against a forward PE of just 9.99x is the single most important valuation signal in this dataset. That roughly 48% compression from trailing to forward earnings implies the market expects earnings to nearly double over the next twelve months, consistent with analyst estimated EPS of $0.93 versus the current trailing figure, and it means CDE trades at a substantial discount to its own trailing multiple on a go-forward basis. The forward PE of 9.99x is remarkably low in absolute terms for a company growing revenue at triple-digit rates, though the market is rationally discounting the cyclicality of those earnings — forward EPS estimates for a gold miner are only as reliable as the gold price assumption embedded in them. On peer comparison, the data does not provide a direct industry average PE for the gold sector, but the broader precious metals mining peer group has historically traded in the 12x-20x forward earnings range depending on the cycle, which would place CDE's 9.99x forward PE at a discount to the mid-to-upper end of that band. The supporting multiples are more mixed: price-to-book of 3.42x is elevated and reflects the re-rating from the 1.15x book multiple seen in Q1 2026 historical data, price-to-sales of 5.47x is rich for a commodity producer, and EV/EBITDA of 11.3x is full but not extreme for a miner at a cyclical earnings peak. The PEG ratio of 0.038 is extraordinarily low, but this metric is distorted by the explosive near-term growth rate and should be treated with heavy skepticism for a commodity price-driven business. Historical context is instructive: CDE's PE ratio has ranged from negative territory throughout 2023 and early 2024 (when the company was unprofitable) to 12.0x in Q1 2026, 13.5x in Q4 2025, and 11.2x in Q3 2025, meaning the current trailing PE of 19.4x is actually above the recent quarterly readings even as the forward PE sits below them. The price-to-book multiple tells the clearest re-rating story: from 1.15x in Q1 2026 and 1.11x in Q1 2025 to 3.42x today, the market has tripled the premium it assigns to Coeur's book value, which is either a justified recognition of the transformed cash-generation profile or a warning that sentiment has run ahead of fundamentals. On balance, the forward earnings discount is genuinely attractive if estimates hold, but the elevated P/B and P/S multiples suggest the stock is no longer cheap on asset or revenue bases, leaving the valuation case almost entirely dependent on earnings delivery.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Coeur Mining's financial risks are primarily tied to its dependence on precious metals prices, which drive nearly all revenue. While the balance sheet is strong with debt-to-equity of 0.110 and a current ratio of 2.00, the company's gross margin has shown volatility, dropping to 46.2% in Q1 2026 from 53.7% in Q4 2025 due to higher cost of revenue. Additionally, the revenue mix is concentrated in gold (57%) and silver (43%), leaving no diversification away from the metals complex. Any sustained decline in gold or silver prices would quickly compress margins and cash flow, as the company is a price-taker with limited control over selling prices.
Market and competitive risks include the stock's high beta of 1.389, which makes it 39% more volatile than the S&P 500, and its sensitivity to macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the US dollar. Recent news highlights sharp selloffs tied to falling metals prices and a strengthening dollar, underscoring these external pressures. The valuation is also a concern: price-to-book of 3.42x is triple the level seen in early 2026, and price-to-sales of 5.47x is rich for a commodity producer. If the market re-rates the stock lower, the downside could be significant. Competitive risks include operational execution at key mines like Rochester, where expansion setbacks could hurt production and costs.
The worst-case scenario would involve a sharp and sustained decline in gold and silver prices, perhaps triggered by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes or a global economic slowdown that strengthens the dollar. This would compress revenue and margins, leading to earnings misses and analyst downgrades. In such a scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $13.55, representing a 34% decline from the current price of $20.58. The analyst low target of $18.00 implies a 12.5% downside, but in a severe commodity downturn, the stock could fall further, especially given its high beta and historical max drawdown of -47.85%. Investors could lose over a third of their capital if the bear case materializes.
FAQ
The most severe risk is the extreme sensitivity to precious metals prices, which drive nearly all revenue; a sustained decline in gold or silver would rapidly erode margins and cash flow. Second, the stock is highly volatile with a beta of 1.389 and a maximum drawdown of -47.85% in the past year, meaning it can lose nearly half its value in a downturn. Third, valuation risk is elevated, with price-to-book at 3.42x and price-to-sales at 5.47x, leaving little margin for error. Fourth, operational risks include cost inflation and grade variability, as seen in the recent gross margin compression to 46.2% from 53.7%. These risks are ranked from most to least severe, with commodity price risk being the dominant factor.
Our 12-month forecast for CDE includes three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) targets $22-$25, assuming gold and silver prices stabilize and the company meets its forward EPS estimate of $0.93. The bull case (30% probability) targets $27.77-$35.00, driven by rising metals prices and successful acquisition integration. The bear case (20% probability) targets $13.55-$18.00, if commodity prices correct sharply and earnings disappoint. The most likely scenario is the base case, hinging on stable precious metals prices and continued operational execution. The average analyst target of $23.77 aligns with our base case.
CDE's valuation is mixed. On forward earnings, it appears undervalued with a forward PE of 9.99x, well below the trailing PE of 19.4x and historical mining multiples. However, on asset and revenue bases, it looks overvalued: price-to-book is 3.42x, triple the 1.15x seen in early 2026, and price-to-sales is 5.47x, which is rich for a commodity producer. The market is pricing in a significant earnings step-up, as evidenced by the forward PE compression, but the elevated P/B and P/S suggest that sentiment has run ahead of fundamentals. The stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued if earnings estimates are met, but could be overvalued if commodity prices decline.
Coeur Mining offers a compelling risk/reward proposition for investors bullish on precious metals. The stock trades at a forward PE of 9.99x, a significant discount to its trailing PE of 19.4x, and analysts have a consensus buy rating with an average target of $23.77, implying 15.5% upside. The company's revenue grew 137.8% YoY in Q1 2026, and it generates substantial free cash flow of $914.8 million. However, the stock is highly volatile with a beta of 1.389 and is entirely dependent on gold and silver prices, which can be unpredictable. It is a good buy for risk-tolerant investors seeking leveraged exposure to precious metals, but those with lower risk tolerance should be cautious.
CDE is more suitable for short-term trading or as a tactical satellite holding rather than a long-term core investment. Its high beta of 1.389 and 47.85% maximum drawdown indicate significant volatility, and it pays no dividend, so returns depend entirely on price appreciation. The company is in a growth phase, but earnings visibility is low due to commodity price dependence. Long-term investors could hold it as a leveraged play on precious metals, but they must tolerate large swings. A suggested minimum holding period is 1-2 years to ride out volatility, but active traders may find shorter-term opportunities around earnings and metals price movements.