Coeur Mining
CDE
$16.50
-3.90%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a precious metals producer operating gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its four core assets — Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington — located in Mexico, Nevada, Alaska, and Canada, respectively, and the United States generating the largest share of revenue. The company is a mid-tier precious metals producer rather than a senior major, and its investment identity is closely tied to its leverage to gold and silver prices, with gold contributing roughly $695 million and silver roughly $322 million of recent segment revenue. The current investor narrative centers on a dramatic operational and financial transformation: revenue has scaled from roughly $305 million in Q4 2024 to over $1.08 billion in Q2 2026, driven by the Rochester expansion ramp and a major acquisition that lifted the share count from about 399 million to over 1.0 billion shares. Debate now hinges on whether this growth is durable — bulls point to record free cash flow, a fortress balance sheet, and proven reserves reportedly worth more than the entire market capitalization, while bears flag the stock's high sensitivity to precious metals prices, which drove sharp drawdowns in March 2026 when gold and silver weakened on inflation and rate concerns.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$16.50
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Based on the synthesis, the recommendation is a Hold with a bullish bias. The core thesis is that Coeur Mining is undergoing a significant operational transformation with explosive revenue growth and a strong balance sheet, but near-term risks from commodity price volatility and margin compression warrant caution. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $23.95, implying 35.6% upside, but the stock's recent weakness and high beta suggest waiting for a better entry point or confirmation of sustained margin improvement. Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 125.86% year-over-year in Q2 2026, 2) Forward PE of 8.90x, which is low relative to growth, 3) Debt-to-equity of 0.11 and current ratio of 2.00, indicating financial health, 4) Free cash flow of $1.156 billion trailing, and 5) Analyst target upside of 35.6%. However, the PS ratio of 5.47x is above the industry average of 2-4x, and net margin has compressed. The biggest risks are a decline in precious metals prices, continued margin erosion, and integration challenges from the acquisition. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock stabilizes above $18 and margins show improvement, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or metals prices fall sharply. The stock appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued on earnings basis but overvalued on sales basis, reflecting mixed signals.
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CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
Coeur Mining presents a compelling growth story with explosive revenue growth and a strong balance sheet, but near-term risks from commodity price volatility and margin compression are significant. The stock's low forward PE suggests undervaluation if growth is sustainable, but the premium PS ratio and recent price weakness indicate market skepticism. Analyst sentiment is bullish, but the wide target range ($18-$35) reflects high uncertainty. I would upgrade to bullish if the company demonstrates sustained margin improvement and metals prices stabilize, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates or margins continue to fall.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.95 and implied upside of +45.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.95
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+45.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$18 - $35
Analyst target range
Coverage is solid with 11 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is a Buy with a recommendation mean of 1.73 (where 1.0 is Strong Buy and 3.0 is Hold), indicating a moderately bullish but not euphoric stance. The average target price of $23.95 implies roughly +35.6% upside from the current price of $17.66, a substantial gap that suggests analysts believe the recent selloff is overdone relative to fundamental value; the consensus leans bullish, supported by recent institutional actions including Canaccord Genuity's upgrade from Hold to Buy in April 2026 and Scotiabank's reiterated Sector Outperform in July and August 2026. The target range is wide, spanning from a low of $18.00 to a high of $35.00 — a spread of nearly 2x — which signals high uncertainty and divergent views on the precious metals price deck and the sustainability of Coeur's margin expansion. The high target of $35.00 likely assumes gold and silver prices remain elevated or rise further, full realization of Rochester expansion synergies, and multiple expansion as the market re-rates the stock on forward earnings; the low target of $18.00, barely above the current price, likely prices in flat-to-lower metals prices, margin compression from cost inflation, and skepticism about the acquisition's accretion. The recent rating actions show a mixed but slightly positive pattern: Canaccord's upgrade in April 2026 was offset by its downgrade in February 2026, while Scotiabank, RBC Capital, Roth Capital, TD Securities, and BMO Capital have all maintained bullish ratings, suggesting that despite the stock's 17.55% one-month decline, the institutional consensus remains constructive and the selloff may represent a buying opportunity for investors who share the analysts' constructive metals price outlook.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bull case for Coeur Mining rests on its explosive revenue growth, fortress balance sheet, and attractive forward valuation, supported by a strong analyst consensus and significant reserve value. However, the bear case highlights the stock's high sensitivity to precious metals prices, recent margin compression, massive share dilution, and weak technical momentum. Currently, the bear evidence appears stronger in the short term, given the 17.55% one-month decline and margin pressures, but the long-term bull case is compelling if metals prices stabilize. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its margin expansion and growth trajectory amid volatile commodity prices and integration of the acquisition; resolution of this will determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q2 2026 revenue reached $1.086 billion, up 125.86% year-over-year from $480.7 million in Q2 2025, driven by the Rochester expansion and a major acquisition. This growth has been consistent, with sequential increases from $305.4 million in Q4 2024 to $554.6 million in Q3 2025, $674.8 million in Q4 2025, and $856.2 million in Q1 2026.
- Fortress Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is only 0.11 and the current ratio is 2.00, indicating minimal leverage and ample liquidity. The company generated $387.5 million in free cash flow in Q2 2026 alone and held $1.056 billion in cash, while returning $110.4 million via buybacks and $20.6 million in dividends.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward PE of 8.90x is remarkably low for a company growing revenue at triple-digit rates, and the PEG ratio of 0.038 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth. The trailing PE of 19.38x is above recent troughs but well below the 34x seen in Q2 2026.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: 11 analysts cover the stock with a consensus Buy rating (mean 1.73) and an average target price of $23.95, implying 35.6% upside from the current price of $17.66. Recent actions include Canaccord Genuity's upgrade to Buy in April 2026 and Scotiabank's reiterated Sector Outperform.
Bearish
- Commodity Price Dependency: Revenue is heavily tied to gold and silver prices, with gold contributing $695.0 million and silver $321.6 million in recent segment revenue. Sharp drawdowns in March 2026 were directly linked to falling precious metals prices on inflation and rate concerns, highlighting the stock's vulnerability to commodity cycles.
- Margin Compression: Net margin in Q2 2026 compressed to 11.22% from 28.82% in Q1 2026 and 31.85% in Q4 2025, while gross margin fell to 49.36% from 53.70% in Q4 2025. Higher cost of revenue ($549.7 million) and a 43.35% effective tax rate in Q2 indicate cost inflation and tax headwinds.
- Share Dilution: Shares outstanding ballooned from about 399 million in Q4 2024 to over 1.03 billion in Q2 2026 due to the acquisition, significantly diluting per-share metrics. Diluted EPS was only $0.12 in Q2 2026 despite $121.9 million net income, down from $0.39 in Q1 2026.
- Weak Technical Momentum: The stock is down 17.55% in the past month and 6.06% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 21.07 percentage points. It sits 36% below its 52-week high of $27.77 and has a beta of 1.389, indicating higher volatility than the market.
CDE Technical Analysis
Coeur Mining is in a recovery phase within a broader range-bound structure, with the current price of $17.66 sitting roughly 30% above the 52-week low of $13.55 but approximately 36% below the 52-week high of $27.77 — placing it at about 30% of its 52-week range, which signals neither momentum leadership nor deep-value territory but rather a mid-range consolidation. The 1-year price change of -6.06% versus the S&P 500's +15.01% produces a relative strength of -21.07%, a stark underperformance that reflects the stock's peak-to-trough drawdown of -47.85% and its failure to reclaim prior highs despite strong fundamental growth. This divergence between improving company fundamentals and weak price performance suggests the market is either discounting peak precious metals prices or digesting heavy share issuance from the acquisition. Recent momentum has deteriorated sharply: the 1-month change of -17.55% contrasts with a positive 3-month change of +2.08% and a roughly flat 6-month change of -7.49%, indicating that the August rally to the $22 area has fully reversed and short-term momentum is decelerating even as the medium-term trend remains marginally positive. The 1-month relative strength of -18.14% against SPY's +0.59% shows the stock is being sold aggressively into a rising market, a classic negative divergence that often precedes either a capitulation low or a continuation of the downtrend; the short ratio of 1.42 suggests short sellers are not yet aggressively positioned, meaning the selling is likely long liquidation rather than a crowded short thesis. Key technical levels are well defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $13.55, with intermediate support near the July 2026 lows around $14.16-$14.35, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $27.77 with a nearer ceiling around the August-September 2026 highs of $21.50-$22.21. A breakout above $22 would signal renewed trend strength and likely require a precious metals price catalyst, while a breakdown below $14 would confirm a lower-low structure and open the door to the $13.55 low; with a beta of 1.389, the stock is roughly 39% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should be materially smaller than a broad-market allocation to account for amplified drawdown risk.
Beta
1.37
1.37x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
-12.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -22.3% | +0.9% |
| 3m | +3.0% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -18.5% | +14.4% |
| 1y | -12.3% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -6.0% | +14.0% |
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CDE Fundamental Analysis
Coeur's revenue trajectory has been nothing short of explosive: Q2 2026 revenue reached $1.086 billion, representing 125.86% year-over-year growth versus Q2 2025's $480.7 million, and this follows a clear multi-quarter acceleration from $305.4 million in Q4 2024 to $554.6 million in Q3 2025, $674.8 million in Q4 2025, and $856.2 million in Q1 2026. The sequential progression — roughly +82%, +22%, +27%, and +27% quarter-over-quarter through the most recent periods — demonstrates that growth is being driven by both volume (Rochester expansion) and realized precious metals prices, with gold revenue of $695.0 million and silver revenue of $321.6 million confirming gold as the dominant driver at roughly 68% of segment revenue. The critical caveat is that this growth is heavily commodity-price dependent, and the share count ballooned from about 399 million shares in Q4 2024 to over 1.03 billion in Q2 2026, meaning per-share economics are far less impressive than headline revenue growth — diluted EPS was only $0.12 in Q2 2026 despite $121.9 million of net income, down from $0.39 in Q1 2026. Profitability is robust but volatile: Q2 2026 net income of $121.9 million translated to a net margin of 11.22%, a sharp compression from Q1 2026's 28.82% and Q4 2025's 31.85%, while gross margin of 49.36% in Q2 2026 was also below Q1's 46.16% on a comparable basis and well below Q4 2025's 53.70%. The trailing net margin of 28.30% and operating margin of 36.27% are strong for the gold mining industry, but the quarter-to-quarter margin compression — driven by higher cost of revenue of $549.7 million and a 43.35% effective tax rate in Q2 — signals that the company is not immune to cost inflation and that the Q1 2026 margin peak may prove difficult to sustain. The balance sheet is a genuine strength: debt-to-equity of just 0.11 and a current ratio of 2.00 indicate minimal leverage and ample liquidity, while trailing free cash flow of $1.156 billion and Q2 2026 free cash flow of $387.5 million demonstrate the business now generates substantial internal cash. ROE of 17.68% and ROA of 7.14% are healthy for a capital-intensive miner, and the company returned capital via $110.4 million of stock repurchases and $20.6 million of dividends in Q2 2026 while still growing cash to $1.056 billion — evidence that the balance sheet can fund operations, growth capex of $125.7 million, and shareholder returns simultaneously without external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+125.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Because Coeur is solidly profitable with trailing net income positive, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: the trailing PE of 19.38x compares to a forward PE of just 8.90x, an extraordinarily wide gap that implies the market expects earnings to more than double over the next twelve months. That expectation is corroborated by consensus estimated EPS of $1.305 versus trailing EPS of $0.052, a roughly 25-fold increase that reflects the full-year impact of the Rochester expansion and the acquisition, though the trailing EPS figure is distorted by the mid-year share count change and should be treated with caution. The forward PE of 8.90x is remarkably low in absolute terms for a company growing revenue at triple-digit rates, suggesting the market is pricing in either a sharp precious metals price decline or skepticism about earnings sustainability. On peer comparison, the stock's PS ratio of 5.47x and EV/Sales of 5.59x are elevated relative to typical gold miners, which often trade at 2-4x sales, implying a premium of roughly 40-100% versus the sector; however, the PB ratio of 3.42x and EV/EBITDA of 11.30x are more moderate, and the PEG ratio of 0.038 is extraordinarily low, suggesting the valuation is cheap relative to growth if that growth is durable. The premium to peers on sales-based metrics is arguably justified by Coeur's superior growth rate and improving margin profile, but the discount on earnings-based metrics reflects the market's concern that peak margins and peak metals prices may not persist. Historically, Coeur's PE has ranged from negative territory in loss years (2021-2023) to a low of 11.17x in Q3 2025 and 12.03x in Q1 2026, with the current 19.38x trailing PE sitting above those recent troughs but well below the 34x recorded in Q2 2026 on the historical ratios data; the PS ratio of 5.47x is near the lower end of its historical band, which ranged from roughly 4.07x to 21.49x over the past three years, suggesting that on a sales basis the stock is closer to historical value territory than the headline PE implies.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. The company's revenue is highly concentrated in gold (68% of segment revenue) and silver, making it vulnerable to commodity price swings. Margin compression is evident: net margin fell to 11.22% in Q2 2026 from 31.85% in Q4 2025, and gross margin declined to 49.36% from 53.70%. The share count more than doubled to over 1.03 billion, diluting EPS to $0.12 in Q2 2026, which could continue if further acquisitions or capital raises occur. Additionally, the effective tax rate spiked to 43.35% in Q2, reducing net income. Market and competitive risks include the stock's high beta of 1.389, meaning it is 39% more volatile than the market, and its recent underperformance: -17.55% in one month versus SPY's +0.59%. The PS ratio of 5.47x is at a premium to peers (2-4x), and if metals prices decline or growth slows, multiple compression could occur. Regulatory and environmental risks are inherent in mining, and the company's operations in Mexico and Canada expose it to political and currency risks. The worst-case scenario would involve a sharp decline in gold and silver prices due to rising interest rates or a strong dollar, leading to revenue and margin contraction. The stock could retest its 52-week low of $13.55, representing a 23.3% decline from the current price of $17.66. If analyst bear-case target of $18.00 is breached, the next support is at $14.16-$14.35, and a break below could see $13.55. From the current price, a drop to $13.55 would mean a loss of approximately 23.3%, and if the 52-week low is broken, further downside to $12 could imply a 32% loss.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Commodity price risk: Revenue is heavily dependent on gold (68% of segment revenue) and silver prices, and a decline could significantly impact financials, as seen in March 2026 when falling metals prices caused sharp drawdowns. 2) Margin compression: Net margin fell to 11.22% in Q2 2026 from 31.85% in Q4 2025, and gross margin declined to 49.36% from 53.70%, due to cost inflation and higher taxes. 3) Dilution risk: Shares outstanding increased from 399 million to over 1.03 billion, diluting EPS to $0.12 in Q2 2026. 4) Operational risk: The company operates in Mexico and Canada, exposing it to political, regulatory, and currency risks, and any production disruptions could hurt results. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) with a target range of $27.77-$35.00, assuming elevated metals prices and successful integration; Base case (50% probability) with a target range of $21.00-$24.00, assuming stable metals prices and moderate growth; Bear case (20% probability) with a target range of $13.55-$18.00, assuming falling metals prices and margin pressures. The base case is most likely, hinging on gold averaging $2,300/oz and silver $28/oz. The analyst average target of $23.95 aligns with the base case, implying 35.6% upside from the current price of $17.66.
CDE appears undervalued on earnings-based metrics but overvalued on sales-based metrics. The forward PE of 8.90x is very low, suggesting the market expects earnings to more than double, while the trailing PE of 19.38x is above recent troughs but below the 34x seen in Q2 2026. The PS ratio of 5.47x is at a premium to typical gold miners (2-4x), implying the market is pricing in high growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 0.038 indicates undervaluation relative to growth if that growth is sustainable. Overall, the valuation is mixed, and the stock could be fairly valued if growth moderates, but undervalued if the company meets analyst estimates.
CDE could be a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a bullish view on precious metals prices. The stock trades at a forward PE of 8.90x, which is low relative to its revenue growth of 125.86% year-over-year, and analysts have a Buy consensus with an average target of $23.95, implying 35.6% upside. However, the stock is highly volatile (beta 1.389) and has fallen 17.55% in the past month, with net margin compressing to 11.22% in Q2 2026. The biggest downside risk is a decline in gold and silver prices, which could push the stock to its 52-week low of $13.55, a 23.3% drop. Therefore, it may be suitable for investors who can withstand volatility and believe in the commodity cycle, but it is not a low-risk investment.
CDE is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 2-3 years) due to its high volatility (beta 1.389) and commodity price sensitivity, which can cause significant short-term swings. The company is in a growth phase, with revenue scaling rapidly and a strong balance sheet, but earnings visibility is moderate due to metals price uncertainty. It does not pay a dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation. Short-term trading is risky given the 47.85% max drawdown and recent 17.55% one-month decline. Long-term investors can benefit from the potential re-rating as the company executes its growth plan, but should be prepared for volatility.