Nexstar Media Group
NXST
$156.53
-3.58%
Nexstar Media Group is the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, with over 200 stations across 116 markets reaching roughly 220 million people, of which 155 are affiliated with CBS, Fox, NBC, or ABC; it also owns NewsNation, a 75% stake in The CW, and a 31% interest in Food Network and Cooking Channel. Its competitive identity rests on scale-driven local broadcasting economics — retransmission/distribution fees and political advertising — combined with a growing national cable news asset, making it a cash-generative consolidator rather than a pure growth story. The current investor narrative is dominated by the pending Tegna merger, which would push station count above 259 and reach roughly 80% of the U.S. population, alongside a sharp deterioration in reported profitability (a Q4 2025 net loss of $166 million and a trailing PE above 66x) that has raised questions about deal-related costs, impairment charges, and the sustainability of the dividend. Debate centers on whether regulatory approval of Tegna unlocks substantial synergies and re-rating potential, or whether leverage, cord-cutting pressure on distribution revenue, and a 25% year-to-date share price decline signal deeper structural risk.…
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
$156.53
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NXST Today?
Rating: Hold with a speculative bias. The core thesis is that Nexstar is a deeply discounted cash-flow machine whose 6.72x forward PE and 57.6% upside to the $246.75 average analyst target are contingent on Tegna approval and earnings normalization that have not yet been demonstrated. The consensus strong-buy rating (mean 1.25) and the fact that no analyst target sits below the current price suggest the sell-off is viewed as overdone, but the market is clearly pricing a binary outcome.
Supporting evidence is mixed but leans toward value. The forward PE of 6.72x versus the trailing 66.79x implies a tenfold earnings recovery, while price-to-cash-flow of 6.92x and EV/EBITDA of 9.70x screen cheap versus broadcasting peers. Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.13% year-over-year to $1.396 billion, and free cash flow of $708 million TTM covers the 2.74% dividend on a cash basis despite the 155% earnings payout ratio. However, the 2.20% trailing net margin, 3.32x debt-to-equity, and 25.05% YTD decline show the risks are real, and the 6.41-day short ratio signals entrenched bearish positioning.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a Tegna deal block, a dividend cut, and continued cord-cutting erosion of the 60% distribution-revenue base. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock reclaims the $180–$190 area on Tegna approval or if forward earnings estimates are met without further impairments; it would downgrade to Sell if the stock breaks below $154.47 on volume or if the dividend is cut. Relative to its own history (PS compressed from 6.38x in Q1 2022 to 1.25x now) and to peers, NXST is undervalued on cash-flow metrics but fairly valued to expensive on earnings quality — the discount is justified until deal clarity emerges.
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NXST 12-Month Price Forecast
Nexstar presents a classic deep-value binary: the 6.72x forward PE and 57.6% analyst upside are compelling if Tegna closes and earnings normalize, but the 3.32x debt-to-equity, 155% payout ratio, and 2.20% trailing net margin show the risks are substantial. The stock is pinned near its 52-week low with a 39.01% max drawdown, and the 6.41-day short ratio indicates entrenched bearish positioning that could amplify either direction. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock reclaims $180–$190 on Tegna approval or if Q2 2026 shows gross margin above 45% with no new impairments; I would downgrade to bearish if the stock breaks below $154.47 on volume or if the dividend is cut. For now, the risk/reward is balanced but requires high conviction in the Tegna outcome.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nexstar Media Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $246.75 and implied upside of +57.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$246.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+57.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$205 - $290
Analyst target range
Eight analysts cover Nexstar with a consensus recommendation of strong_buy (mean rating 1.25), and the average target price of $246.75 implies roughly 57.6% upside from the current $156.53 — an unusually wide gap that reflects either significant undervaluation or stale targets that have not been marked down to reflect the recent decline. The consensus leans strongly bullish, with recent actions including Citigroup's upgrade to Buy from Neutral on April 10, 2026, and reiterations of Overweight/Buy/Outperform from Wells Fargo, Benchmark, Deutsche Bank, Barrington Research, and Guggenheim. The estimated average revenue of $8.512 billion (range $8.369–$8.664 billion) suggests analysts expect top-line growth to continue, though the zeroed-out EPS estimates limit visibility into the earnings assumptions behind those targets.
The target range spans $205 (low) to $290 (high), a $85 spread that equals 54% of the current share price and signals high uncertainty — consistent with a binary merger outcome. The high target of $290 likely assumes Tegna approval, successful deleveraging, and multiple expansion back toward historical norms, while the low target of $205 still implies 31% upside and appears to price in deal completion with modest synergies rather than a worst-case scenario. Notably, no analyst target sits below the current price, which is a strong signal that the sell-off is viewed as overdone relative to fundamentals; however, the persistence of bullish ratings through a 25% YTD decline raises the risk that targets are lagging the tape, and the 6.41-day short ratio indicates that a meaningful cohort of investors disagrees with the consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: NXST Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: the stock is pinned 1.0% above its 52-week low, down 25.05% YTD, with a 155% payout ratio, 3.32x debt-to-equity, and a Q4 2025 net loss of $166 million. The bull case rests almost entirely on forward-looking normalization — the 6.72x forward PE and 57.6% analyst upside imply a tenfold earnings recovery that has not yet materialized. The single most important tension is the Tegna merger: approval would likely unlock synergies, deleveraging, and a re-rating toward $246.75, while a block or delay would validate the market's structural-impairment thesis and likely push the stock below $154.47. Until there is evidence of base-building or deal clarity, the risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside despite optically cheap cash-flow multiples.
Bullish
- Deep value on forward earnings: The forward PE of 6.72x is a fraction of the trailing PE of 66.79x, implying the market expects a roughly tenfold earnings recovery as Q4 2025's $470 million other expense and impairment charges roll off. If that normalization occurs, the stock is priced for a severe recession that may not materialize.
- Analyst consensus strong buy: All 8 covering analysts rate NXST a strong buy (mean 1.25), with an average target of $246.75 implying 57.6% upside from $156.53. The lowest target of $205 still implies 31% upside, and no analyst target sits below the current price.
- Cash generation remains robust: Trailing free cash flow of $708 million and Q1 2026 FCF of $267 million provide substantial coverage for the 2.74% dividend yield, even though the payout ratio of 155% on trailing earnings looks stretched. On a cash basis, the dividend is more sustainable than the earnings-based payout ratio suggests.
- Tegna merger synergy optionality: The pending Tegna acquisition would expand Nexstar to over 259 stations and roughly 80% of the U.S. population, creating a scale platform with significant retransmission and political advertising leverage. Approval would likely trigger a re-rating toward the analyst high target of $290.
Bearish
- Earnings quality severely impaired: Q4 2025 swung to a $166 million net loss on a negative $214 million pretax result, driven by $470 million in other expenses. The trailing net margin of just 2.20% and trailing PE of 66.79x show how distorted the annual picture has become, and gross margin has oscillated between 37.23% and 54.68% over the past year.
- Leverage leaves little cushion: Debt-to-equity stands at 3.32x with total debt to capitalization near 85% in Q1 2026, while cash is only $436 million. The company spent $3.355 billion on debt repayment and $3.341 billion on acquisitions in Q1 2026, a massive capital-markets event that leaves minimal balance sheet flexibility.
- Dividend coverage is questionable: The payout ratio of 155% means the 2.74% dividend yield is not covered by trailing earnings, and free cash flow has been volatile ($708 million TTM but only $136 million in Q4 2025). A dividend cut would remove a key support for the stock and likely trigger further selling.
- Structural cord-cutting pressure: Roughly 60% of Q1 2026 revenue ($837 million of $1.396 billion) comes from distribution service fees tied to pay-TV subscriber counts that are structurally declining. The Q1 2026 revenue growth of 13.13% likely reflects political-advertising timing and rate step-ups rather than durable reacceleration.
NXST Technical Analysis
Nexstar is in a sustained downtrend, with the shares down 24.16% over the past year and 25.05% year-to-date, and the current price of $156.53 sits at just 1.0% above the 52-week low of $154.47 and roughly 61.5% of the 52-week high of $254.30 — effectively pinned to the bottom of its range. That positioning signals a stock in capitulation territory rather than a momentum name: buyers have repeatedly failed to defend higher levels, and the burden of proof now rests on a base-building pattern rather than a simple bounce. The maximum drawdown of -39.01% over the period confirms the severity of the de-rating, and with the price only $2.06 above the 52-week low, the margin for error is thin.
Short-term momentum is decisively negative and accelerating to the downside: the stock is down 16.46% over the past month versus a 0.96% decline in SPY, producing a relative strength reading of -15.50%, and it is down 4.65% over three months against SPY's +2.00% (relative strength -6.65%). The one-month decline is far steeper than the three-month and one-year figures, indicating that selling pressure has intensified recently rather than stabilized — a bearish divergence from any hope of mean reversion. The most recent session alone fell 3.58% on volume of 1.45 million shares, and the short ratio of 6.41 days suggests short sellers remain entrenched, which can amplify further downside but also sets up squeeze potential on any positive catalyst.
Key technical levels are unusually well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $154.47, just below the current $156.53, while resistance is the 52-week high of $254.30 — a 62.5% gap that underscores how much damage has been done. A decisive breakdown below $154.47 would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and open a new leg lower, whereas a reclaim of even the $180–$190 area would be the first evidence of a durable bottom. With a beta of 0.887, Nexstar is modestly less volatile than the broader market, meaning the -39.01% drawdown is company-specific rather than a function of market beta — a signal that idiosyncratic risks (deal uncertainty, earnings quality, leverage) are driving the tape.
Beta
0.89
0.89x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$154-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
-24.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NXST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.5% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -4.6% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -31.0% | +16.6% |
| 1y | -24.2% | +14.8% |
| ytd | -25.0% | +11.7% |
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NXST Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing but with a lumpy, event-driven pattern: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.396 billion rose 13.13% year-over-year against $1.234 billion in Q1 2025, yet the sequential trend is uneven — Q4 2025 revenue of $1.289 billion was down from $1.487 billion in Q4 2024, and Q3 2025's $1.198 billion trailed Q3 2024's $1.366 billion. The Q1 2026 segment mix shows distribution service revenue of $837 million and advertising of $548 million, with other revenue at just $11 million, meaning roughly 60% of the top line comes from retransmission fees — a stream tied to pay-TV subscriber counts that are structurally declining. The growth acceleration in Q1 2026 is therefore encouraging but likely reflects political-advertising timing and distribution rate step-ups rather than a durable reacceleration, which tempers the investment case.
Profitability is the central concern: Q1 2026 net income of $164 million on a 47.56% gross margin and 18.98% operating margin looks healthy, but Q4 2025 swung to a net loss of $166 million with a 41.19% gross margin, driven by $470 million in other income/expense and a negative $214 million pretax result. The trailing PE of 66.79x against a forward PE of 6.72x is a stark illustration of how depressed trailing earnings have become, and the trailing net margin of just 2.20% versus the Q1 2026 quarterly net margin of 11.75% shows how much the Q4 impairment distorted the annual picture. Gross margin has oscillated between 37.23% (Q3 2025) and 54.68% (Q2 2025) over the past year, indicating limited cost visibility and heavy sensitivity to revenue mix and one-time items.
Balance sheet risk is elevated: debt-to-equity stands at 3.32x (with total debt to capitalization near 85% in Q1 2026), and the company spent $3.355 billion on debt repayment while making $3.341 billion of acquisitions in Q1 2026 — a massive capital-markets event consistent with the Tegna transaction. Free cash flow of $708 million on a trailing basis and $267 million in Q1 2026 provides coverage, but the current ratio of 2.07 and cash balance of just $436 million against that debt load leave little cushion, and the payout ratio of 155% means the 2.74% dividend yield is not covered by trailing earnings. ROE of 5.28% and ROA of 5.09% are modest for a business with this leverage, suggesting the balance sheet is consuming much of the value created by operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
47.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$708000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NXST Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is positive but heavily distorted by the Q4 2025 loss, the trailing PE of 66.79x is not a meaningful anchor; the more informative metric is the forward PE of 6.72x, which reflects expected normalization of earnings as deal costs and impairments roll off. The enormous gap between trailing (66.79x) and forward (6.72x) multiples implies the market expects a roughly tenfold earnings recovery, which is an unusually aggressive assumption and explains why the stock trades near its lows despite the optically cheap forward multiple. On a price-to-sales basis, the 1.25x PS ratio and 2.87x EV/Sales are the cleaner cross-cycle measures given the earnings volatility.
Against the Communication Services/Broadcasting peer set, Nexstar screens cheap on cash-flow metrics — a 6.92x price-to-cash-flow ratio, 9.70x EV/EBITDA, and 2.99x price-to-book — but the discount is at least partly deserved given 3.32x debt-to-equity, a 2.20% net margin, and a 155% payout ratio that signals dividend risk. The 2.74% dividend yield is above the sector norm, yet with payout exceeding earnings, the market is pricing in a potential cut or a reliance on free cash flow that has been volatile ($708 million TTM but only $136 million in Q4 2025). The premium/discount debate ultimately hinges on Tegna: if the merger closes and synergies materialize, the forward multiple is deeply undervalued; if it is blocked or leverage becomes unmanageable, the discount is justified.
Historically, Nexstar's PE has ranged from roughly 5.1x (Q4 2024) to 66.8x today, and its PS ratio has compressed from 6.38x in Q1 2022 to 1.25x now — near the bottom of its multi-year band. The price-to-book of 2.99x is above the 2.17x–2.53x range seen through 2024, but that reflects a shrinking book value from losses rather than a premium multiple. Trading near historical lows on sales and cash flow suggests either a genuine value opportunity or a market that believes the broadcast model is structurally impaired — and with the stock at 61.5% of its 52-week range and 1.0% off its low, the market is currently voting for the latter.
PE
66.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are acute. Debt-to-equity of 3.32x and total debt to capitalization near 85% leave Nexstar highly exposed to refinancing conditions, especially after spending $3.355 billion on debt repayment and $3.341 billion on acquisitions in Q1 2026. The trailing net margin of 2.20% and payout ratio of 155% mean the 2.74% dividend is not covered by earnings, and with only $436 million of cash against a multi-billion debt load, a dividend cut or equity raise is a realistic possibility. Revenue concentration compounds this: roughly 60% of Q1 2026 revenue ($837 million of $1.396 billion) comes from distribution fees tied to structurally declining pay-TV subscribers, while gross margin has swung between 37.23% and 54.68% over four quarters, showing limited cost visibility.
Market and competitive risks are equally material. The stock trades at 1.25x sales and 6.92x cash flow, near the bottom of its multi-year band, but that discount is at least partly deserved given the 2.20% net margin and 3.32x leverage. With a beta of 0.887, the -39.01% max drawdown is company-specific rather than market-driven, meaning idiosyncratic risks — deal uncertainty, earnings quality, and leverage — are driving the tape. Cord-cutting continues to erode the pay-TV ecosystem that underpins retransmission revenue, and the 6.41-day short ratio indicates a meaningful cohort of investors is positioned against the consensus strong-buy rating. Recent news flow has been dominated by unrelated M&A dispatches, offering no positive catalyst for Nexstar specifically.
In a worst-case scenario, Tegna approval is blocked or delayed, Q4-style impairment charges recur, and the dividend is cut, forcing the stock below its 52-week low of $154.47. A decisive breakdown would likely trigger momentum-driven selling toward the analyst low target of $205 — though that target still implies upside, suggesting analysts have not marked down for a true bear case. A more realistic downside anchor is the 52-week low of $154.47, representing roughly -1.3% from the current $156.53, but if the low fails, the next support could be 15-20% lower, implying a total drawdown of -20% to -25% from current levels. Investors could lose 20-30% from the current price in this adverse scenario, with the 39.01% max drawdown as a historical precedent for how severe the de-rating can become.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: debt-to-equity of 3.32x with only $436 million of cash and a 155% payout ratio means the 2.74% dividend is not covered by earnings and could be cut. Second is deal risk: the Tegna merger is binary, and a regulatory block would remove the primary catalyst for a re-rating. Third is structural: roughly 60% of revenue comes from distribution fees tied to declining pay-TV subscribers, and gross margin has swung between 37.23% and 54.68% over four quarters. Fourth is market risk: the stock is down 24.16% over one year versus SPY's +15.01%, with a 6.41-day short ratio indicating entrenched bearish positioning.
The 12-month forecast is split: a 25% bull case targets $246.75–$290 on Tegna approval and earnings normalization, a 50% base case targets $180–$205 on a delayed deal and gradual recovery, and a 25% bear case targets $120–$154.47 on a deal block and dividend cut. The base case is most likely, assuming forward PE remains in the 6–8x range and the dividend is maintained. The key assumption behind the base case is that Tegna is approved with conditions and distribution revenue declines only low-single-digits, allowing the stock to stabilize above its 52-week low.
NXST screens undervalued on cash-flow metrics but fairly valued to expensive on earnings quality. The forward PE of 6.72x, price-to-cash-flow of 6.92x, and EV/EBITDA of 9.70x are cheap versus broadcasting peers, and the PS ratio of 1.25x is near the bottom of its multi-year band (down from 6.38x in Q1 2022). However, the trailing PE of 66.79x and 2.20% net margin show that trailing earnings are heavily distorted by Q4 2025's $166 million net loss. The market is pricing in a tenfold earnings recovery that has not yet been proven, so the discount is justified until Tegna clarity emerges.
NXST is a high-risk, high-reward special situation rather than a straightforward buy. The 6.72x forward PE and 57.6% upside to the $246.75 average analyst target are compelling, and all 8 analysts rate it a strong buy, but the stock is down 25.05% YTD and sits just 1.0% above its 52-week low of $154.47. The biggest downside risk is a Tegna merger block combined with a dividend cut, which could push the stock 20-30% lower. It is a good buy only for investors with high risk tolerance, a 2-3 year horizon, and conviction that Tegna will be approved and earnings will normalize.
NXST is better suited for long-term value investors than short-term traders. The beta of 0.887 is modestly below market, but the 39.01% max drawdown and 6.41-day short ratio create high volatility around binary events, making short-term trading risky without a clear catalyst. The 2.74% dividend yield, while not covered by trailing earnings, provides some income for patient holders. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is appropriate to allow the Tegna merger to close, synergies to materialize, and earnings to normalize toward the level implied by the 6.72x forward PE.