Nexstar Media Group
NXST
$154.70
-7.90%
Nexstar Media Group is the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, with a portfolio of over 200 stations in 116 markets that reach 220 million people. The company's distinct competitive identity is built on its massive local broadcast footprint, ownership of national cable news network NewsNation, a majority stake in The CW network, and strategic investments in other cable channels. The current investor narrative is dominated by the pending merger with Tegna, which would significantly expand its reach to 80% of the US population, alongside intense scrutiny of its financial performance following a significant quarterly loss and revenue decline reported in Q4 2025.…
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
$154.70
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NXST Today?
Rating: Hold. The investment thesis is one of high risk/high potential reward, awaiting confirmation that the catastrophic Q4 was an anomaly rather than a new trend. While analyst sentiment leans cautiously optimistic (Deutsche Bank Buy, Wells Fargo Overweight), the severe fundamental deterioration mandates a wait-and-see approach.
Supporting evidence for this Hold rating includes the stock's deeply discounted valuation (PS of 1.25 vs. its own historical range of 3.29-5.01), the significant TTM Free Cash Flow of $743 million that provides financial flexibility, and the potential long-term upside from the Tegna merger to 80% US reach. However, these positives are counterbalanced by the severe -13.32% YoY revenue decline, the net margin swing to -12.88%, and the stock's technical position hovering just above its 52-week low after a 27.62% 3-month decline.
The two biggest risks that could invalidate a future upgrade are 1) a further sequential decline in revenue and margins in the next quarter, and 2) a breakdown of the stock below the $163.46 support level, signaling continued institutional outflow. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy only upon evidence of quarterly revenue stabilization and a return to positive net income, suggesting the downturn is cyclical. It would downgrade to a Sell on a confirmed breakdown below $163 with no near-term fundamental catalyst. Relative to its own history, the stock is undervalued, but relative to its current broken growth trajectory, it is fairly valued—the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty.
Sign up to view all
NXST 12-Month Price Forecast
The outlook for NXST is bifurcated and hinges almost entirely on the resolution of the Q4 2025 disaster. The base case (50% probability) is a messy, sideways year where the company struggles to find a bottom. The bear case risk is substantial (25%), with a clear path to further significant downside if operations don't stabilize. The bull case (25%) offers compelling upside but requires multiple positive catalysts to align. The stance is Neutral due to the high uncertainty; the severe sell-off has likely captured much of the near-term bad news, but there is no visible catalyst for a sustained recovery yet. The stance would upgrade to Bullish on evidence of sequential quarterly improvement in revenue and margins. It would downgrade to Bearish on a breakdown below $163.46 or another significant earnings miss.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nexstar Media Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $201.11 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$201.11
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$124 - $201
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited with only 5 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with more specialized institutional following. The consensus sentiment appears mixed but leans cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Deutsche Bank (Buy), Barrington Research (Outperform), and Wells Fargo (Overweight) maintained in Q1 2026, though Citigroup maintains a Neutral stance. The average revenue estimate for the coming year is $7.95 billion, with a range from $7.77 billion to $8.18 billion, but a specific consensus price target and implied upside are not available in the provided data, limiting the precision of the upside calculation. The wide revenue estimate range signals meaningful uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's near-term recovery trajectory and the integration of the Tegna merger; the pattern of reiterated ratings following the poor Q4 results suggests analysts are taking a 'wait-and-see' approach, awaiting clearer signs of stabilization before making more decisive calls.
Bulls vs Bears: NXST Investment Factors
The bear case currently holds stronger evidence, anchored by the catastrophic Q4 2025 earnings miss featuring a -13.32% revenue decline and a $166 million net loss. This fundamental breakdown has triggered a severe technical downtrend, pushing the stock to the brink of its 52-week low. The primary tension in the investment debate is whether this quarter represents a transient, cyclical low point for advertising or the beginning of a sustained structural decline in Nexstar's broadcast model. Bulls argue the extreme valuation discount (PS of 1.25) and strong TTM FCF ($743M) provide a margin of safety for a eventual turnaround, amplified by the transformative Tegna merger. However, until concrete signs of revenue stabilization and margin recovery emerge, the overwhelming momentum favors the bears.
Bullish
- Extreme Valuation Discount: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 1.25, near the extreme low of its observable historical range (3.29 to 5.01). This deep discount prices in severe pessimism, leaving significant room for a re-rating if fundamentals stabilize, even modestly.
- Despite the Q4 loss, the company generated $743 million in TTM free cash flow. This robust cash generation provides a critical buffer to service its high debt (D/E of 3.32) and fund operations, offering financial resilience during a downturn.
- Transformative Merger Pending: The pending merger with Tegna would expand Nexstar's reach to 80% of the US population, creating the dominant local broadcast entity. This strategic scale could unlock significant long-term value and cost synergies once integrated, a catalyst not fully reflected at current depressed prices.
- Analyst Sentiment Holding: Despite the poor Q4, major institutions like Deutsche Bank (Buy), Barrington Research (Outperform), and Wells Fargo (Overweight) have maintained their positive ratings in Q1 2026. This suggests professional analysts see the sell-off as overdone relative to the long-term thesis.
Bearish
- Catastrophic Profitability Collapse: Q4 2025 saw a net loss of $166 million (-12.88% margin) versus a $242 million profit a year ago, with gross margin collapsing from 62.47% to 41.19%. This severe and sudden deterioration raises existential questions about the core business model's health amid advertising weakness.
- Severe Revenue Decline & Trend: Q4 revenue fell 13.32% YoY to $1.289 billion, a stark reversal from prior growth. The multi-quarter trend indicates deep-seated top-line pressure, likely from cyclical ad softness and potential market share loss, challenging the recovery narrative.
- Technical Breakdown Near 52-Week Low: The stock is down 27.62% over 3 months and trades at $164.16, just above its 52-week low of $163.46. This intense, accelerating downtrend (1-month R.S. of -13.71) signals persistent selling pressure and a high risk of breaking key support, which could trigger further capitulation.
- High Leverage Amidst Uncertainty: A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32 signifies a highly leveraged balance sheet. While current liquidity (Current Ratio 2.07) is adequate, this debt burden amplifies risk if the operational downturn persists, potentially straining cash flow needed for interest payments and the Tegna integration.
NXST Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 27.62% over the past three months and 18.72% over the past six months, culminating in a 1-year price change of -1.46% which significantly underperforms the S&P 500's 24.99% gain. With a current price near $164.16, the stock is trading at approximately 64.5% of its 52-week high of $254.3 and just above its 52-week low of $163.46, indicating it is near the bottom of its annual range and may be approaching a potential support zone or signaling deep fundamental concerns. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 12.97% over the past month, a decline that sharply contrasts with the S&P 500's 0.74% gain, as evidenced by a severe 1-month relative strength of -13.71; this acceleration of selling pressure suggests the longer-term downtrend is intensifying rather than finding a bottom. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $163.46, with a breakdown below this level likely triggering further capitulation, while resistance is established at the recent high near the 52-week peak of $254.3; the stock's beta of 0.9 indicates it has been slightly less volatile than the broader market during this decline, which is unusual for a stock under such selling pressure and may point to a controlled, fundamentals-driven sell-off.
Beta
0.90
0.90x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$154-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
-9.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NXST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.7% | -2.2% |
| 3m | -27.4% | +15.8% |
| 6m | -24.5% | +6.4% |
| 1y | -9.4% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -25.9% | +7.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
NXST Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trajectory has turned sharply negative, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.289 billion representing a 13.32% year-over-year decline, a stark reversal from the profitable and growing quarters earlier in the year; segment data shows Distribution Service revenue of $720 million and Advertising revenue of $548 million, but the overall multi-quarter trend indicates significant top-line pressure, likely driven by cyclical advertising weakness and integration challenges. Profitability has collapsed, with the company reporting a net loss of $166 million and a net margin of -12.88% in Q4, compared to net income of $242 million and a 16.27% net margin in Q4 2024; the gross margin of 41.19% in the latest quarter is also a significant compression from the 62.47% gross margin a year prior, highlighting severe margin pressure across both cost of revenue and operating expenses. The balance sheet shows a highly leveraged financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32, though liquidity appears adequate with a current ratio of 2.07; critically, the company generated $743 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, which provides a buffer to service its debt and fund operations despite the quarterly loss, but the sustainability of this cash flow is now in question given the operational deterioration.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.13%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.41%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$743000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is NXST Overvalued?
Given the company reported a net loss of $166 million in Q4 2025, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as earnings-based multiples are not meaningful. The trailing PS ratio is 1.25, while the forward-looking valuation can be inferred from the estimated revenue for the coming year of $7.95 billion, suggesting the market is applying a significant discount to sales following the operational setback. Compared to industry averages, direct peer multiples are not provided in the data, but the stock's EV/Sales ratio of 3.40 offers an enterprise value perspective; the low PS ratio likely reflects the market's punitive assessment of the recent profitability collapse and growth reversal, pricing in substantial uncertainty around the Tegna merger and advertising recovery. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated significantly, with recent quarterly figures showing 4.78 at the end of Q4 2025, 5.01 in Q3, and as low as 3.29 in Q4 2024; the current PS of 1.25 is near the extreme low end of this observable range, suggesting the market is pricing in a scenario of sustained fundamental deterioration or merger risk, leaving little room for further disappointment.
PE
66.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -9x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on the company's sudden loss of profitability and high leverage. The Q4 net margin of -12.88% and gross margin compression from 62.47% to 41.19% indicate profound operational stress, likely from rising programming costs and weak ad pricing. With a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 3.32, the company's balance sheet is highly leveraged, making it vulnerable to sustained earnings weakness. While TTM Free Cash Flow of $743 million provides a near-term cushion, its sustainability is questionable if revenue continues to decline at a double-digit pace, risking the company's ability to comfortably service debt and fund the Tegna integration.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to Nexstar's cyclical advertising exposure and discounted valuation. The stock's beta of 0.9 suggests it is not a defensive safe haven. The core broadcast TV industry faces secular threats from digital media fragmentation, pressuring long-term ad growth. From a valuation perspective, while the PS ratio of 1.25 appears cheap, it could compress further if the market re-categorizes the stock as a 'value trap' with declining fundamentals rather than a cyclical recovery play. The pending Tegna merger, while a potential catalyst, also carries integration and regulatory execution risks that could further weigh on sentiment.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to stabilize operations combined with a breakdown in the Tegna deal. This could unfold as: Q1 2026 earnings show continued revenue declines and losses, leading analysts to slash estimates; the stock decisively breaks below its 52-week low of $163.46; and rising interest rates or regulatory hurdles delay or scuttle the Tegna merger, removing a key strategic pillar. In this adverse scenario, a realistic downside could see the stock re-test levels 30-35% below the current price, aligning with a further de-rating to a PS ratio near 0.8-0.9, implying a price target range of $110-$125. An investor could face a loss of 30-35% from the current $164 level.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Operational Collapse: The severe profitability breakdown (Q4 net margin -12.88%) may not be temporary, threatening the business model. 2) High Financial Leverage: A Debt-to-Equity ratio of 3.32 amplifies losses and could strain finances if the downturn persists. 3) Merger Execution Risk: The transformative Tegna deal could face regulatory delays, financing issues, or failed integration, removing a key bull catalyst. 4) Technical Breakdown: The stock is trading at $164.16, just 0.4% above its 52-week low of $163.46; a break below could trigger accelerated algorithmic and institutional selling.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain, with three distinct scenarios. The Base Case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $180 and $210 as the company muddles through a difficult year with volatile results. The Bull Case (25% probability), driven by a successful Tegna merger and advertising recovery, targets a range of $240 to $254. The Bear Case (25% probability), involving worsening fundamentals and merger issues, forecasts a decline to $125-$163. The base case is most likely, predicated on the assumption that the catastrophic Q4 2025 represents a low point, but a swift, strong recovery is not imminent.
NXST appears statistically undervalued relative to its own history but may be fairly valued given its broken fundamentals. The trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.25 is near the extreme low of its observable multi-quarter range (3.29 to 5.01), suggesting a deep discount. However, this discount reflects the market's punitive assessment of the recent -13.32% revenue decline and negative margins. The valuation implies the market expects sustained deterioration or significant merger risk. Until growth and profitability trends improve, the low multiple is justified, making it a 'value trap' rather than a clear bargain.
NXST is not a good buy for most investors at this moment due to extreme fundamental uncertainty and high risk. While the valuation is deeply discounted at a PS ratio of 1.25 and analyst firms like Deutsche Bank maintain Buy ratings, the stock has just reported a catastrophic quarter with a 13.32% revenue decline and a $166 million net loss. The potential 30-35% downside to the $125-$163 bear-case range is a significant risk. It could become a good buy for speculative, deep-value investors only after concrete evidence emerges that Q4 2025 was the cyclical bottom, such as a return to revenue stability and positive earnings.
NXST is unsuitable for short-term trading due to its high volatility, negative momentum, and event-driven nature around earnings and merger news. For long-term investment, it carries excessive risk unless an investor has high conviction in the Tegna merger's success and a multi-year advertising cycle recovery. The stock's beta of 0.9 and lack of a reliable dividend (payout ratio of 155% is unsustainable) do not support an income strategy. Given the need to see several quarters of operational stabilization, the absolute minimum holding period for a speculative long position should be 18-24 months to allow the merger integration to play out.