Oklo
OKLO
$38.55
+7.17%
Oklo Inc. is a pre-revenue nuclear technology company developing liquid metal fast reactor power plants, commercialized through its Aurora powerhouse product line, with an initial design capacity of up to 15 MWe capable of running on both recycled and fresh nuclear fuel; it also sells used nuclear fuel recycling services to the U.S. market. As a first-mover in the small modular reactor (SMR) space targeting AI data-center and industrial power demand, Oklo is a high-risk, high-reward disruptor rather than an established utility, employing just 205 people against a multi-billion-dollar market capitalization. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between landmark commercial validation — including a Meta-linked deal calling for a 1.2-gigawatt reactor in Ohio slated for roughly 2030 — and the reality that the company has generated almost no revenue, is burning cash heavily, and faces unproven technology and regulatory timelines. Sentiment has swung sharply negative in 2026, with the stock down more than 70% over the past year amid sector-wide caution following Holtec's canceled IPO and shifting AI data-center sentiment, even as government support for SMRs and Big Tech's multi-decade nuclear commitments keep the long-term thesis alive.…
OKLO
Oklo
$38.55
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy OKLO Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold, reflecting a balance between the company's strong balance sheet and landmark commercial pipeline against its pre-revenue status, extreme valuation, and severe technical downtrend. The analyst consensus is 'Buy' with a mean of 2.08 and an average target price of $75.78, implying +111.2% upside, but the 9.3x spread between the low ($14.00) and high ($130.00) targets signals very low conviction. The core thesis is that Oklo offers high-risk optionality on SMR commercialization, but current fundamentals do not justify a Buy until revenue or regulatory milestones are achieved.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes: (1) a fortress balance sheet with $1.66 billion in cash, a current ratio of 49.08, and debt-to-equity of 0.00098, providing a multi-year runway; (2) a landmark Meta-linked 1.2 GW reactor deal slated for 2030, validating demand from a top-tier AI customer; (3) analyst revenue estimates averaging $314.7 million (range $75.6 million to $582.8 million), indicating expected future scale; and (4) the stock's deeply oversold condition at just 0.9% above its 52-week low, with a 72.15% one-year decline that may have priced in substantial pessimism. However, these positives are offset by an EV/Sales of 3,522x, negative free cash flow of -$275.82 million TTM, and widening net losses.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) commercialization delays beyond 2030 for the Meta reactor, which would push revenue further out and increase dilution risk; (2) continued cash burn requiring equity raises at depressed prices, given the 72% stock decline; and (3) sector-wide de-rating following Holtec's canceled IPO and shifting AI data-center sentiment. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the company secures regulatory approval for the Aurora design or announces additional binding commercial contracts, and would downgrade to Sell if revenue remains negligible through 2027 or if cash burn accelerates beyond $300 million annually. Relative to its history, the price-to-book ratio of 7.11x is mid-range (versus a peak of 150.54x in Q4 2021), but on any fundamental basis the stock remains overvalued, with the market pricing in substantial future success.
Sign up to view all
OKLO 12-Month Price Forecast
Oklo presents a binary risk/reward profile: the company has a strong balance sheet and a landmark Meta-linked 1.2 GW reactor deal, but it is pre-revenue, burning over $275 million annually, and trades at an EV/Sales of 3,522x. The stock's 72% decline and position near its 52-week low suggest the market has priced in substantial pessimism, yet analyst targets imply significant upside if commercialization milestones are met. The neutral stance reflects the balance between the potential for transformative upside and the high risk of further dilution or delays. I would upgrade to bullish if Oklo secures regulatory approval for the Aurora design or announces additional binding commercial contracts, and downgrade to bearish if cash burn accelerates or the Meta reactor timeline slips beyond 2030.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Oklo's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $75.78 and implied upside of +96.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$75.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+96.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$14 - $130
Analyst target range
Oklo is covered by 20 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a recommendation mean of 2.08 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a strong sell), indicating a moderately bullish tilt. The average target price is $75.78, which implies +111.2% upside from the current price of $35.87 — a striking disconnect between analyst optimism and market pessimism. However, the consensus is not uniformly bullish: recent institutional ratings show a mix of Neutral (UBS, Citigroup), Hold (Truist), Buy (Canaccord, HC Wainwright), and Overweight (Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald, Wedbush), with no recent upgrades or downgrades, suggesting analysts are holding steady rather than capitulating to the sell-off. The target range is extraordinarily wide, from a low of $14.00 to a high of $130.00 — a 9.3x spread that signals very low conviction and high uncertainty about the company's future. The high target of $130.00 implies roughly 262% upside and likely assumes successful, on-time commercialization of the Aurora pipeline, multiple major customer deals (like the Meta 1.2 GW project), and a re-rating to premium growth multiples. The low target of $14.00 implies -61% downside and likely prices in delayed or failed commercialization, continued cash burn requiring dilutive financing, and a sector-wide de-rating. The wide spread reflects the binary nature of the investment: Oklo is either a transformative nuclear power play or a cash-burning speculative story, and the market is currently leaning toward the latter. Estimated EPS averages -$0.67 (range -$1.41 to -$0.01), confirming that analysts expect continued losses, and the estimated revenue average of $314.7 million (range $75.6 million to $582.8 million) shows the same wide dispersion. The gap between the consensus target and the current price is a classic signal of a stock that has overshot to the downside relative to analyst expectations, but it also reflects the market's skepticism that those targets will be met given the 2030 timeline for the flagship Meta reactor.
Bulls vs Bears: OKLO Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence: Oklo is pre-revenue, burning over $275 million annually, and trading at an EV/Sales of 3,522x, while the stock sits just 0.9% above its 52-week low after a 72% decline. The bull case rests on a fortress balance sheet ($1.66 billion cash, zero debt), a landmark Meta-linked 1.2 GW deal, and analyst targets implying +111% upside, but these are future promises against a backdrop of widening losses and no commercial operations. The single most important tension is whether Oklo can convert its pipeline into revenue-generating projects on schedule — specifically, whether the 2030 Meta reactor timeline holds and whether regulatory approvals for the Aurora design are secured. If commercialization slips or requires dilutive financing at depressed prices, the stock could break below its 52-week low; if milestones are met, the analyst target gap suggests significant upside. Until there is tangible revenue or regulatory progress, the risk/reward remains skewed to the downside despite the deeply oversold condition.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus sees 111% upside: 20 analysts cover OKLO with a consensus 'Buy' rating (mean 2.08) and an average target price of $75.78, implying +111.2% upside from the current $35.87. The high target of $130.00 implies +262% upside, reflecting substantial embedded optionality if commercialization milestones are met.
- Fortress balance sheet with zero debt: Oklo ended Q2 2026 with $1.66 billion in cash, a current ratio of 49.08, and debt-to-equity of 0.00098, meaning the company is funded entirely by equity. This provides a multi-year runway to fund R&D and construction without near-term solvency risk.
- Meta-linked 1.2 GW reactor validates demand: The Meta-linked deal for a 1.2-gigawatt reactor in Ohio, slated for roughly 2030, represents landmark commercial validation from a top-tier AI data-center customer. It demonstrates that Big Tech is willing to sign multi-decade nuclear commitments, supporting Oklo's long-term revenue pipeline.
- First-mover in liquid metal fast reactors: Oklo is commercializing its Aurora powerhouse (up to 15 MWe) using liquid metal fast reactor technology that can run on recycled and fresh fuel, a differentiated approach versus light-water SMR peers. This first-mover position in fuel recycling could create a durable competitive moat if regulatory approvals are secured.
Bearish
- Pre-revenue with no commercial scale: Q2 2026 revenue was only $1.21 million, following three consecutive quarters of zero revenue, and the sole disclosed segment ('Product and Service, Other') generated just $242,000. The company has no meaningful commercial operations, making the entire investment case dependent on future execution.
- Cash burn accelerating with dilution risk: Free cash flow was -$141.68 million in Q2 2026 and -$275.82 million on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with operating cash flow of -$47.59 million. Oklo raised $670.05 million in common stock in Q2 2026 alone (after $1.18 billion in Q1 2026), and the 72% stock decline raises the risk of future capital raises on unfavorable terms.
- Losses widening year-over-year: Q2 2026 net loss was -$48.54 million (EPS -$0.28), wider than Q1 2026's -$33.06 million and Q2 2025's -$24.69 million, with operating income of -$73.19 million and an operating margin of -60.49%. R&D of $39.47 million and G&A of $34.21 million in the quarter reflect a heavy fixed cost base that will pressure results until revenue scales.
- Valuation disconnected from fundamentals: EV/Sales stands at an extraordinary 3,522x, versus 2-5x for established utilities and independent power producers, while the price-to-book ratio of 7.11x is elevated given a -7.16% ROE and -6.65% ROA. The $10.5 billion market cap implies substantial future success despite almost no current revenue.
OKLO Technical Analysis
Oklo is in a severe, sustained downtrend, with the shares down 72.15% over the past year and 53.89% year-to-date, a collapse that has erased the vast majority of the stock's prior momentum. At $35.87, the price sits at just 0.9% above its 52-week low of $34.38 and only 18.5% of the way up from that low toward the 52-week high of $193.84 — effectively trading at the very bottom of its 52-week range. This positioning signals a classic falling-knife setup: the stock is not merely oversold but in a persistent distribution phase, and the maximum drawdown of -79.55% underscores how brutal the reversal has been from prior highs. Recent momentum offers no relief: the stock is down 9.24% over the past month and 31.49% over three months, meaning the short-term trend is deteriorating even faster than the longer-term decline. Relative strength versus the S&P 500 is deeply negative across every window — -9.83% over one month, -34.83% over three months, and -87.16% over one year — confirming that Oklo is not just falling but massively underperforming a rising market (SPY +15.01% over one year). The 1-month decline of 9.24% versus the 1-year decline of 72.15% suggests the pace of selling may be moderating in percentage terms, but there is no evidence of a bottoming pattern or momentum divergence that would signal a trend reversal. Key technical levels are stark: immediate support sits at the 52-week low of $34.38, and a decisive breakdown below that level would open the door to new all-time lows and likely trigger further momentum-driven selling. Resistance is layered far overhead, with the 52-week high of $193.84 representing a 440% recovery requirement; nearer-term resistance would form around the $40-$45 zone where the stock repeatedly failed in August and September. With a beta of 1.195, Oklo is roughly 20% more volatile than the broad market, but that figure likely understates realized volatility given the stock's -79.55% max drawdown and daily swings; position sizing should account for the possibility of continued 30%+ quarterly drawdowns.
Beta
1.22
1.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-79.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$34-$194
Price range past year
Annual Return
-72.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKLO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.6% | +1.2% |
| 3m | -18.5% | +4.5% |
| 6m | -19.3% | +14.6% |
| 1y | -72.2% | +16.0% |
| ytd | -50.4% | +14.3% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
OKLO Fundamental Analysis
Oklo's revenue trajectory is essentially nascent and lumpy: Q2 2026 revenue was just $1.21 million with a gross profit of $489,000, following three consecutive quarters (Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025) of zero reported revenue. The only revenue segment disclosed is 'Product and Service, Other' at $242,000, confirming that the company has no meaningful commercial operations at scale. Analyst estimates project average revenue of $314.7 million (range $75.6 million to $582.8 million), but this reflects future expectations rather than current performance, and the enormous spread between the low and high estimates underscores how uncertain the commercialization timeline is. The investment case therefore rests entirely on future execution — the Meta-linked 1.2 GW Ohio reactor and other pipeline deals — not on any demonstrated revenue-generating capability. Profitability is deeply negative and worsening: Q2 2026 net income was -$48.54 million (EPS -$0.28), wider than Q1 2026's -$33.06 million and Q2 2025's -$24.69 million, with operating income of -$73.19 million and an operating margin of -60.49%. The Q2 gross margin of 40.41% is optically healthy but meaningless at this revenue scale, and the company's net margin of -40.11% reflects the heavy fixed cost base — R&D of $39.47 million and G&A of $34.21 million in the quarter alone. The loss trajectory is clearly deteriorating, with net losses roughly doubling year-over-year, which is typical for a pre-commercial deep-tech company but leaves no margin of safety if timelines slip. The balance sheet is Oklo's strongest asset: cash at end of Q2 2026 was $1.66 billion, the current ratio is an extraordinary 49.08, and debt-to-equity is effectively zero at 0.00098, meaning the company is funded by equity, not debt. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$141.68 million in Q2 2026 and -$275.82 million on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with capital expenditures of -$94.09 million in the quarter and operating cash flow of -$47.59 million. The company raised $670.05 million in common stock in Q2 2026 alone (following $1.18 billion in Q1 2026), so it is entirely dependent on external equity financing to fund operations — a model that works only as long as investors are willing to fund it, and the 72% stock decline raises real questions about future capital-raising terms and dilution risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$1210000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
40.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-275816000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is OKLO Overvalued?
Because Oklo's trailing net income is negative (-$48.54 million in Q2 2026) and EBITDA is negative (-$51.35 million), the PE ratio is not meaningful; the trailing PE of -99.67 and forward PE of -34.16 are both negative and therefore uninformative for valuation. The appropriate metric is EV/Sales, which stands at an extraordinary 3,522x — a figure that reflects the near-total absence of revenue rather than a genuine valuation signal. The PS ratio is reported as 0, and the PCF ratio of -127.80 is negative, so no traditional multiple provides a usable anchor; the market is valuing Oklo on future potential, not current fundamentals. The only positive multiple is the price-to-book ratio of 7.11, which is elevated for a company with a -7.16% ROE and -6.65% ROA, indicating investors are paying a large premium over tangible book value for intangible pipeline and technology optionality. Peer comparison is difficult because Oklo's multiples are distorted by its pre-revenue status, but the EV/Sales of 3,522x is orders of magnitude above any established utility or independent power producer, which typically trade at 2-5x sales. Even relative to other SMR developers, Oklo's valuation is extreme, and the premium is justified only if the company successfully commercializes its Aurora reactors and captures a meaningful share of the AI-driven nuclear power market — a binary outcome. The discount embedded in the stock's 72% decline suggests the market is repricing that probability downward, but the remaining $10.5 billion market cap still implies substantial future success. Historically, Oklo's price-to-book ratio has ranged from 2.82x (Q2 2026) to 13.92x (Q3 2025) and as high as 150.54x in Q4 2021, so the current 7.11x is mid-range but well off the 2025 peak. The trailing PE has been negative for most periods, making historical PE comparison meaningless; the more relevant observation is that the stock's valuation has compressed dramatically from its 2025 highs, yet remains expensive on any fundamental basis. This suggests the market is still pricing in optimistic long-term expectations, but with far less conviction than a year ago — a setup where further multiple compression is possible if commercialization milestones slip.
PE
-99.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-88.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Oklo's financial risks are dominated by its pre-revenue status and accelerating cash burn. Q2 2026 revenue was just $1.21 million, following three consecutive zero-revenue quarters, while free cash flow was -$141.68 million in the quarter and -$275.82 million on a trailing-twelve-month basis. Net losses are widening year-over-year, from -$24.69 million in Q2 2025 to -$48.54 million in Q2 2026, with operating margin at -60.49%. The company relies entirely on external equity financing, having raised $670.05 million in Q2 2026 and $1.18 billion in Q1 2026; with the stock down 72% over the past year, future capital raises could be highly dilutive. The balance sheet is strong with $1.66 billion in cash and a current ratio of 49.08, but this is a finite runway against a multi-year commercialization timeline.
Market and competitive risks are severe given Oklo's extreme valuation and sector volatility. The EV/Sales of 3,522x is orders of magnitude above the 2-5x typical for utilities and independent power producers, leaving enormous room for multiple compression if growth expectations moderate. The stock's beta of 1.195 understates its realized volatility, as evidenced by a max drawdown of -79.55% and a 72.15% one-year decline, while the S&P 500 rose 15.01% over the same period. Competitive threats are rising: X-Energy's U.K. regulatory acceptance and Centrica partnership, Amazon's $3 billion nuclear deal with Constellation, and Holtec's canceled IPO all signal a crowded and sentiment-sensitive SMR landscape. Regulatory delays or a shift in AI data-center spending could trigger further sector-wide de-rating.
The worst-case scenario involves a chain of events where the Meta-linked 1.2 GW Ohio reactor slips beyond 2030, regulatory approvals for the Aurora design are delayed, and the company is forced to raise equity at depressed prices, leading to massive dilution. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $34.38 (just 4.2% below the current $35.87) and potentially break below it, with the analyst low target of $14.00 implying -61% downside from current levels. From the current price, an investor could lose 61% in a severe bear case, and the historical max drawdown of -79.55% shows that such losses are not unprecedented. The absence of revenue and the binary nature of commercialization mean there is no fundamental floor to the valuation until tangible progress is demonstrated.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: Oklo is pre-revenue with Q2 2026 revenue of $1.21 million and free cash flow of -$275.82 million TTM, requiring external equity financing that could be highly dilutive given the 72% stock decline. Second, commercialization risk is high, as the Meta-linked 1.2 GW reactor is slated for 2030 and depends on unproven technology and regulatory approvals. Third, competitive risk is rising, with X-Energy's U.K. regulatory acceptance and Amazon's nuclear deal with Constellation highlighting a crowded SMR landscape. Fourth, macro and sector risk includes sensitivity to AI data-center spending and sentiment, as shown by Holtec's canceled IPO, with a beta of 1.195 understating realized volatility (max drawdown -79.55%).
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain, with a base case (50% probability) targeting $45-$75 as incremental progress is offset by cash burn, a bull case (25%) targeting $75-$130 if regulatory and commercial milestones are met, and a bear case (25%) targeting $14-$34 if timelines slip or dilution occurs. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming no major regulatory approvals or commercial deals within 12 months and cash burn remaining in the $250-300 million annual range. The key assumption behind the base case is that Oklo maintains its cash runway without a highly dilutive equity raise, allowing the stock to stabilize above its 52-week low of $34.38.
OKLO is significantly overvalued on any traditional metric, with an EV/Sales of 3,522x versus 2-5x for established utilities and independent power producers. The price-to-book ratio of 7.11x is elevated given a -7.16% ROE and -6.65% ROA, and negative PE and PCF ratios make earnings-based valuation meaningless. The market is pricing in substantial future success, implying that Oklo must successfully commercialize its Aurora reactors and capture a meaningful share of the AI-driven nuclear market to justify the current $10.5 billion market cap. Relative to its own history, the P/B of 7.11x is mid-range (versus a peak of 150.54x in Q4 2021), but the stock remains expensive on fundamentals, suggesting further multiple compression is possible if milestones slip.
From a risk/reward perspective, OKLO is a high-risk, high-reward speculative buy only for investors who can tolerate significant volatility and a multi-year horizon. The analyst consensus target of $75.78 implies +111.2% upside, but the stock trades at an EV/Sales of 3,522x with no meaningful revenue, and the 52-week low of $34.38 is just 4.2% below the current price. The biggest downside risk is a dilutive equity raise or commercialization delay, which could push the stock toward the analyst low target of $14.00 (-61%). For risk-averse investors, the pre-revenue status and widening losses make it unsuitable; for those with a high risk tolerance, a small position could capture optionality on SMR commercialization.
OKLO is suitable only for long-term, risk-tolerant investors, with a suggested minimum holding period of 3-5 years to allow for potential commercialization of the Aurora reactors and the Meta-linked 1.2 GW project. The stock pays no dividend, has a beta of 1.195, and exhibits extreme volatility with a max drawdown of -79.55%, making it unsuitable for short-term trading unless one is a momentum trader. Earnings visibility is essentially zero, as the company has no meaningful revenue and analysts expect continued losses (estimated EPS average -$0.67). Long-term holders should be prepared for significant drawdowns and potential dilution, but could be rewarded if Oklo becomes a key SMR provider for AI data centers.