PBF

PBF Energy

$40.97

+1.26%
Apr 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. The company is a significant independent player, owning and operating a portfolio of refineries across key regions including Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. The current investor narrative is dominated by a historic boom in refining margins, or 'crack spreads,' driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, which have propelled the stock to multi-year highs and positioned the company to potentially deliver windfall profits, though this rally is now being tested by recent volatility and profit-taking.

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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $40.97
Average Target $40.97
High Target $47.1155
Low Target $34.8245

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $53.26 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$53.26

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$33 - $53

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for PBF is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with less institutional research focus which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, is mixed but leans cautious; recent actions include Mizuho maintaining 'Neutral', Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Neutral', and Piper Sandler maintaining 'Overweight', while Wolfe Research initiated an 'Underperform' in December 2025. An explicit consensus price target is not provided in the data. The target price range, based on estimated EPS, is implied by the low and high EPS estimates of $1.88 and $2.87, respectively. Applying a forward PE multiple (10.31x) to these estimates gives a very rough implied price range of approximately $19 to $30. The high end of this range assumes the company achieves the upper end of earnings expectations, likely pricing in sustained wide crack spreads and operational execution. The low end reflects risks of margin compression, demand destruction, or a rapid resolution of geopolitical tensions. The wide spread between high and low EPS estimates signals significant uncertainty and disagreement about the company's earnings power in the current volatile environment.

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PBF Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a staggering 143.19% one-year price change. As of the latest close at $37.16, the price sits at approximately 71% of its 52-week range ($14.54 to $52.18), indicating it has retreated significantly from recent highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a cooling of extreme momentum but not a breakdown of the broader bullish trend. Recent momentum shows a sharp divergence, with the stock down 21.09% over the past month, starkly contrasting with the strong 25.84% gain over the past three months; this signals a significant short-term correction or profit-taking phase following the parabolic rally that peaked in late March 2026, potentially indicating a period of consolidation or mean reversion. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $14.54, but more immediate support lies in the $26-$30 range where the stock consolidated in late 2025. Primary resistance is at the recent 52-week high of $52.18. A breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the powerful uptrend, while a sustained breakdown below the $35-$37 area could indicate a deeper correction toward the $30 support zone. The stock's beta of 0.233 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY) over the measured period, which is unusual for a cyclical energy name but may reflect its specific trading pattern during the recent refining boom; however, the recent sharp pullback highlights that low beta can be period-specific and does not eliminate event-driven volatility.

Beta

0.23

0.23x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$16-$52

Price range past year

Annual Return

+157.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodPBF ReturnS&P 500
1m-18.2%+8.5%
3m+22.6%+2.8%
6m+21.2%+4.6%
1y+157.7%+32.3%
ytd+43.6%+3.9%

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PBF Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $7.14 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 2.88%, continuing a trend of sequentially lower quarterly revenues from $8.38 billion in Q3 2024. This top-line contraction, however, is occurring within a context of dramatically improving profitability per barrel, as the Refining segment, which generated $7.13 billion of the total $7.14 billion in Q4 revenue, is the primary driver of earnings, with the Logistics segment contributing a relatively small $93.5 million. Profitability has been highly volatile and cyclical. The company returned to profitability in Q4 2025 with net income of $78.4 million (EPS of $0.67) and an operating income of $128 million, a stark improvement from a net loss of $289.3 million in Q4 2024. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was negative at -1.85%, but this improved from a deeply negative -4.20% gross margin in the year-ago quarter, highlighting the extreme margin pressure and subsequent recovery characteristic of the refining cycle. The trailing twelve-month metrics show a net margin of -0.54% and an EPS of -$0.05, indicating the full-year 2025 was still marginally unprofitable on a net basis. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55, and reasonable liquidity with a current ratio of 1.21. However, cash flow generation has been challenged; free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was deeply negative at -$783.2 million, and the latest quarterly free cash flow was a positive $77 million. Return on equity is negative at -2.98%, reflecting the recent period of unprofitability. The company's financial health is thus improving from a cyclical trough but remains highly sensitive to refining margin fluctuations, with internal funding for growth appearing constrained based on recent cash flow trends.

Quarterly Revenue

$7.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.02%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-0.01%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-783200000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?

Given the trailing twelve-month net income is negative (-$0.05 EPS), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 0.105, which is exceptionally low, indicating the market is valuing the company at just over a dime for every dollar of sales. A forward PS ratio is not explicitly provided, but the market cap of approximately $3.09 billion against estimated next-year revenue of $41.46 billion implies a forward PS of about 0.075, suggesting expectations for significant revenue growth without a corresponding expansion in the sales multiple. Compared to industry averages, the valuation appears deeply discounted. The provided data shows an EV-to-Sales multiple of 0.256, which is also very low. While direct industry average comparisons are not provided in the valuation data, such low multiples are typical for commodity cyclicals at points in the cycle where profitability is weak or negative, but they can also signal deep value if a profitability recovery is imminent, as the current crack spread environment suggests. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated widely. The current PS of 0.105 is near the bottom of its historical range observed in the data, which has seen values from around 0.19 in 2021 to over 0.81 in early 2024. Trading near the bottom of its own historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in either a reversion to poor fundamentals or is significantly undervaluing the company relative to its own history, presenting a potential value opportunity if the current margin supercycle proves sustainable.

PE

-19.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -121x~16x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-21.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure