PBF Energy
PBF
$76.51
-0.34%
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. As one of the largest independent refiners in the U.S., PBF distinguishes itself through its scale and integrated logistics assets, which provide operational flexibility and cost advantages. The current investor narrative centers on the company's dramatic earnings recovery, driven by geopolitical tensions that have widened crack spreads and created a windfall profit environment for domestic refiners, while also raising questions about the sustainability of these elevated margins and the potential for mean reversion as geopolitical risks evolve.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$76.51
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $67.62 and implied upside of -11.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$67.62
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-11.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $84
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $38.00 to a high of $84.00, representing a wide spread of $46, which indicates significant uncertainty about the stock's future performance. The low target of $38.00 suggests a scenario where refining margins normalize and geopolitical premiums dissipate, potentially leading to a sharp correction from current levels. Conversely, the high target of $84.00 implies that the current favorable margin environment could persist or improve further, driven by continued supply disruptions or structural refining capacity constraints. The wide range reflects the high volatility and cyclicality of the refining industry, and the recent downgrades from firms like Morgan Stanley (Underweight) and the lack of any bullish ratings suggest that institutional sentiment remains cautious despite the stock's strong performance.
PBF Technical Analysis
PBF Energy has exhibited a powerful sustained uptrend over the past year, with the stock price surging 163.15% from 52-week lows to its current level of $74.34. The stock is trading at 95.4% of its 52-week range (between $25.62 and $77.94), indicating it is near the upper end of its yearly range, which typically reflects strong momentum and investor optimism, though it also raises concerns about potential overextension. The 6-month price change of 71.88% and the 1-year change of 163.15% underscore the magnitude of this rally, which has significantly outpaced the S&P 500's 18.65% gain over the same period, demonstrating exceptional relative strength.
Beta
0.08
0.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$26-$78
Price range past year
Annual Return
+155.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +15.4% | -1.4% |
| 3m | +86.0% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +75.9% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +155.2% | +17.2% |
| ytd | +168.2% | +11.8% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
PBF Energy's revenue trajectory has shown resilience, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $7.904 billion, an 11.86% increase year-over-year. This growth follows a period of mixed results, with revenue fluctuating between $7.065 billion and $8.382 billion over the past eight quarters, reflecting the cyclical nature of refining margins. The Refining segment drives the vast majority of revenue at $7.9 billion, while the Logistics segment contributes $93.2 million, highlighting the company's core focus on refining operations. The revenue growth in Q1 2026 marks a significant turnaround from the prior year's Q1, which saw a net loss of $401.8 million, indicating a strong cyclical recovery.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
6.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683900000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given that PBF Energy's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.05), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as it provides a meaningful comparison regardless of profitability. The current PS ratio stands at 0.105, which is remarkably low, while the forward PE ratio of 7.67 suggests the market expects a substantial earnings recovery, with analysts projecting EPS of $4.18 for the upcoming fiscal year. The gap between the negative trailing PE and the positive forward PE indicates that the market is pricing in a significant cyclical earnings rebound, which is consistent with the recent improvement in refining margins.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~10x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple