PBF Energy
PBF
$71.85
-3.38%
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. The company is a significant player in the U.S. refining industry, with a market cap of approximately $3.1 billion and a workforce of over 3,600 employees, distinguishing itself through its integrated refining and logistics operations. The current investor narrative is dominated by the dramatic surge in crack spreads driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, which have created a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners. This has led to a massive rally in PBF's stock, with a 169% gain over the past year, but also raises questions about the sustainability of these margins and the potential for a sharp correction if geopolitical risks subside.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$71.85
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $64.85 and implied upside of -9.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$64.85
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-9.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $84
Analyst target range
PBF Energy is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean rating of 3.36 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average price target is $62.54, implying a modest 2.1% upside from the current price of $61.24. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the 'hold' consensus suggests that analysts are cautious about the stock's near-term prospects despite the recent rally. The high target of $83.00 implies a 35.5% upside, while the low target of $38.00 implies a 38.0% downside, indicating a wide range of expectations and high uncertainty. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with TD Cowen upgrading from Sell to Hold in June 2026, but Morgan Stanley maintaining an Underweight stance, reflecting divergent views on the sustainability of refining margins.
PBF Technical Analysis
PBF Energy's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +169.4%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.5% over the same period. The current price of $61.24 sits at 82% of its 52-week range (low of $21.46, high of $74.74), indicating strong momentum but also suggesting the stock is approaching overbought territory. The stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 is exceptional, with a 1-year relative strength of +148.0%, underscoring its leadership within the energy sector. This positioning near the upper end of its range reflects both the market's enthusiasm for refining margins and the potential for a pullback if momentum stalls.
Beta
0.08
0.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$22-$75
Price range past year
Annual Return
+216.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +22.3% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +69.9% | +5.0% |
| 6m | +108.0% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +216.4% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +151.8% | +13.8% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
PBF Energy's revenue trajectory has been volatile but recently turned positive, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.90 billion, up 11.9% year-over-year, marking a recovery from the losses in 2024 and early 2025. The company reported net income of $198.3 million in Q1 2026, a significant improvement from the net loss of $401.8 million in Q1 2025, demonstrating a strong earnings rebound. However, the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$683.9 million, and the gross margin for Q1 2026 was only 6.1%, reflecting the cyclical nature of refining margins. The company's profitability is highly sensitive to crack spreads, which have been elevated due to geopolitical supply disruptions, but this also implies that any normalization in margins could quickly erode earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
6.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683900000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given that PBF Energy's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.05), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, currently at 0.11x, which is exceptionally low compared to the broader market. The forward PE ratio of 7.2x suggests that analysts expect a significant earnings recovery, but this is based on consensus estimates that may be overly optimistic given the cyclicality of refining margins. The stock's price-to-book ratio of 0.58x indicates that it is trading at a discount to its book value, which is typical for refiners in a cyclical downturn but may also signal a value trap if margins remain depressed. The EV-to-EBITDA of -21.6x is negative due to negative EBITDA, making it less meaningful, but the EV-to-sales of 0.26x further underscores the market's low valuation of the company's revenue generation.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~10x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple