PBF Energy
PBF
$40.67
+0.30%
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. The company is a significant independent refiner with a strategic footprint across five refineries in key regions, and it operates a logistics segment through its PBFX partnership. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly dominated by a geopolitical-driven refining margin supercycle, as recent news highlights a historic surge in gasoline and diesel prices due to supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which is creating a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners like PBF.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$40.67
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $52.87 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$52.87
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$33 - $53
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for PBF is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a smaller-cap stock with less institutional research focus, which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional rating actions, appears mixed to cautiously optimistic; recent actions include an upgrade from Mizuho from 'Underperform' to 'Neutral' in December 2025, but also a downgrade from Wolfe Research to 'Underperform' around the same time, with Piper Sandler maintaining an 'Overweight' rating as recently as February 2026. Specific consensus price target data is not available in the provided dataset, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside. The wide dispersion in recent analyst actions—from 'Buy' (UBS) and 'Overweight' (Piper Sandler) to 'Sell' (TD Cowen) and 'Underperform' (Wolfe Research)—signals high uncertainty and a lack of clear consensus, which is typical for a cyclical stock at an inflection point driven by unpredictable geopolitical events.
Bulls vs Bears: PBF Investment Factors
The bull case, driven by a historic refining margin supercycle and dramatic fundamental improvement, currently holds stronger evidence due to the powerful price momentum (172% 1-year return) and the market's anticipation of a massive earnings rebound (forward P/E of 11.3x). However, the bear case is substantiated by deeply negative trailing profitability and the transitory nature of the geopolitical catalyst. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the current windfall profit environment from geopolitical supply disruptions will be sustained long enough to validate the stock's massive rally and low valuation multiples, or if it will prove fleeting, causing a violent reversion to the mean given the company's weak trailing fundamentals.
Bullish
- Historic Refining Margin Supercycle: Recent news highlights a geopolitical-driven surge in gasoline and diesel prices, with the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade creating a 'windfall profit environment' for U.S. refiners. This is the fastest peacetime gasoline price shock since 1967, directly benefiting PBF's core business.
- Dramatic Fundamental Improvement: The company's financials show a sharp recovery from a net loss of -$401.8 million in Q1 2025 to a net income of $78.4 million in Q4 2025. Gross margins improved from -5.95% to -1.85% over the same period, signaling a powerful cyclical upswing.
- Extremely Low Valuation Multiples: The stock trades at a trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 0.105, which is near the bottom of its historical range. This low valuation, combined with a forward P/E of 11.3x based on estimated EPS of $2.35, suggests significant upside if earnings materialize as expected.
- Strong Technical Momentum: PBF has delivered a 172.22% one-year price return and a 24.11% gain over the past three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The stock is trading at 78% of its 52-week range, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Bearish
- Trailing Profitability Remains Negative: Despite recent improvement, trailing twelve-month metrics are deeply negative, with a net margin of -0.54%, EPS of -$0.05, and free cash flow of -$783.2 million. This underscores the business's extreme cyclicality and cash burn during downturns.
- Revenue Decline and Margin Pressure: Q4 2025 revenue declined -2.88% year-over-year to $7.14 billion, and the gross margin remained negative at -1.85%. This indicates that the recent price surge may not yet be fully reflected in reported financials, and operational challenges persist.
- High Short Interest and Volatility: A short ratio of 3.95 indicates significant bearish sentiment and potential for a sharp squeeze or violent downdraft. The stock's recent -3.14% pullback over the past month after a parabolic rally to $51.23 suggests profit-taking and high volatility.
- Analyst Consensus Lacking: Coverage is limited to only 3 analysts, with recent actions ranging from 'Buy' and 'Overweight' to 'Sell' and 'Underperform'. This wide dispersion signals high uncertainty and a lack of conviction, typical for a cyclical stock at an inflection point.
PBF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 172.22% one-year price change. As of the latest close at $40.67, the price is trading at approximately 78% of its 52-week range ($14.35 to $52.18), indicating it is closer to recent highs than lows, reflecting strong momentum but also suggesting potential for overextension after such a massive rally. Recent momentum shows a divergence, with a strong 24.11% gain over the past three months but a -3.14% pullback over the past month, signaling a potential consolidation or profit-taking phase following the explosive move from March, where the stock surged from around $35 to over $51. The key technical levels are clear: the 52-week high of $52.18 serves as major resistance, while the 52-week low of $14.35 is distant support. A breakout above $52.18 would signal a resumption of the powerful bull trend, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation low near $40 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.233 suggests it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY) over the measured period, which is atypical for a cyclical energy stock and may reflect its recent strong directional move outpacing general market gyrations.
Beta
0.23
0.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$52
Price range past year
Annual Return
+172.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.1% | +2.6% |
| 3m | +24.1% | -2.3% |
| 6m | +46.8% | +2.6% |
| 1y | +172.2% | +27.3% |
| ytd | +42.6% | -0.4% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trajectory is volatile, characteristic of the refining sector, with the most recent quarterly revenue at $7.14 billion for Q4 2025, representing a -2.88% year-over-year decline. However, the multi-quarter trend shows a sharp recovery from deeply negative gross margins in early 2025 (-5.95% in Q1) to a nearly breakeven gross margin of -1.85% in Q4, with the Refining segment driving the vast majority of the $7.13 billion in segment revenue. Profitability is highly cyclical and currently challenged on a trailing basis, with Q4 2025 net income of $78.4 million on a gross margin of -1.85%, but this marks a dramatic sequential improvement from a net loss of -$401.8 million in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month metrics show a net margin of -0.54% and negative EPS of -$0.05, underscoring the sector's sensitivity to crack spreads, which recent news suggests are now at extremely favorable levels. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 and a current ratio of 1.21, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. However, cash flow generation has been weak on a trailing basis, with free cash flow over the last twelve months deeply negative at -$783.2 million, highlighting the capital intensity and working capital swings in the business, though quarterly data shows positive free cash flow of $77 million in Q4 2025.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.01%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-783200000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given the trailing twelve-month Net Income is negative (-$0.05 EPS), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 0.105, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is 0.247. The forward EV/Sales being higher than the trailing PS suggests the market is anticipating a significant improvement in sales efficiency or profitability. Compared to industry averages, specific data is not available in the provided dataset for a direct sector PS comparison. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly with the refining cycle, from a high of 0.812 in early 2024 to a low of 0.105 currently. The current PS of 0.105 is near the very bottom of its observable historical range, which typically signals either a deep value opportunity or that the market is pricing in severely depressed fundamentals. Given the explosive recent news regarding crack spreads, this low historical valuation may not yet reflect the anticipated earnings surge.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: PBF's financials reveal extreme cyclicality and operational leverage. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$783.2 million, highlighting significant cash burn and working capital volatility. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 indicates moderate leverage, but this can become burdensome if the refining cycle turns negative again. Revenue concentration in the volatile Refining segment (over 99% of segment revenue) and a recent year-over-year revenue decline of -2.88% underscore the company's sensitivity to crack spreads, with no diversification to cushion downturns.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression if the geopolitical-driven margin surge proves temporary. The stock has already rallied 172% in a year and is trading near recent highs, making it vulnerable to profit-taking. The low beta of 0.233 is deceptive and reflects its recent strong directional move; the stock is inherently a high-beta cyclical play. Competitive risks include the capital-intensive nature of refining and potential for new capacity or regulatory changes impacting margins. The recent news cycle is overwhelmingly positive, creating a risk of peak sentiment.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a rapid resolution of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, leading to a collapse in crack spreads before PBF can materially improve its balance sheet. This could trigger a return to the deeply negative profitability seen in Q1 2025 (-$401.8M net loss) and Q4 2024 (-$289.3M net loss). Combined with high short interest fueling a downdraft, the stock could retrace a significant portion of its gains. A realistic downside target is the 52-week low of $14.35, which would represent a -65% decline from the current price of $40.67. A more probable severe correction could see a -35% to -40% drawdown to the mid-$20s, aligning with the stock's recent consolidation zone and a max drawdown of -35.56% observed in the data.