PBF Energy
PBF
$42.30
+4.06%
PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. The company is a significant independent refiner with a strategic footprint across five key refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana, complemented by a logistics segment that operates terminals, pipelines, and storage facilities. The current investor narrative is dominated by a potential 'refiner earnings supercycle,' driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions that have dramatically widened crack spreads, leading to a historic surge in fuel prices and a sharp repricing of inflation expectations, which directly benefits PBF's core refining operations.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$42.30
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $54.99 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$54.99
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$34 - $55
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for PBF is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with less institutional research focus which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, inferred from the institutional ratings data, appears mixed to neutral, with recent actions from firms like Mizuho and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Neutral' stances, while Piper Sandler has an 'Overweight' rating; the average target price or explicit Buy/Hold/Sell distribution is not provided in the data, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside to a consensus target. The analyst target range, based on estimated EPS, is wide with a low of $2.21 and a high of $3.71, reflecting high uncertainty about future earnings power in a volatile commodity environment; the high target likely assumes sustained wide crack spreads and geopolitical premiums, while the low target may factor in a rapid normalization of margins and competitive pressures. The pattern of recent institutional ratings shows limited conviction, with most actions being reiterations of Neutral stances, and the wide target spread further underscores the lack of strong consensus on the company's near-term trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: PBF Investment Factors
The investment debate for PBF Energy is a classic clash between a powerful, news-driven cyclical narrative and persistently weak fundamental execution. The bull case, currently supported by stronger evidence in the form of a 158% price surge and the geopolitical 'supercycle' thesis, hinges entirely on the sustainability of historically wide crack spreads. The bear case is grounded in the company's severe cash burn (-$783M TTM FCF), negative profitability metrics, and extreme earnings volatility. The single most important tension is whether the current margin environment can persist long enough and at a high enough level to overcome PBF's structural inefficiencies and generate sustainable positive free cash flow. If crack spreads normalize quickly, the weak fundamentals will dominate; if they remain elevated, the deep valuation discount could provide significant upside.
Bullish
- Historic Crack Spreads Fueling Supercycle: Recent news highlights a 'refiner earnings supercycle' driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with gasoline and diesel prices surging to multi-year highs. This environment directly benefits PBF's core refining operations, as wider crack spreads translate to significantly higher profitability per barrel processed. The stock's 158% one-year gain reflects this powerful narrative.
- Extremely Low Valuation on Sales: The stock trades at a trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 0.105, which is near the absolute bottom of its historical range. This exceptionally low multiple suggests the market is pricing in severe pessimism, offering a deep value opportunity if refining margins sustain even a modest recovery. The EV/Sales of 0.258, while higher, still indicates a significant discount to the enterprise's revenue base.
- Strong Technical Momentum & Low Beta: PBF has demonstrated powerful price momentum, up 158% over the past year and 28.5% over the last three months. Despite its cyclical nature, the stock's beta of 0.233 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market during this rally, suggesting a degree of price stability atypical for the sector that could attract more risk-averse capital to the energy trade.
- Manageable Financial Leverage: The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55, indicating a balanced capital structure that is not overly burdened by leverage. This provides financial flexibility to navigate the volatile refining cycle without the imminent risk of a liquidity crisis that plagues more indebted peers. The current ratio of 1.21, while not robust, shows basic short-term solvency.
Bearish
- Severe Profitability & Cash Flow Issues: Fundamental metrics are deeply concerning: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$783.2 million, ROE is -2.98%, and the most recent quarterly gross margin was -1.85%. The company is burning cash and not generating economic returns for shareholders, making it dependent on external financing or asset sales to fund operations, which is unsustainable in a downturn.
- Extreme Earnings Volatility & Recent Losses: Profitability is wildly inconsistent, swinging from a net loss of -$401.8 million in Q1 2025 to a profit of $170.1 million in Q3 2025. The trailing twelve-month EPS is -$0.05, and the forward PE of 10.3x is based on highly uncertain analyst estimates. This extreme cyclicality makes forecasting and valuation exceptionally difficult and risky.
- Revenue Decline & Margin Compression: The most recent quarterly revenue of $7.14 billion represents a -2.88% year-over-year decline, and the multi-quarter trend shows significant top-line instability. Coupled with a negative gross margin in Q4 2025, this indicates the company's operations are currently unprofitable at a basic level, challenging the bullish narrative of a margin-driven windfall.
- Limited Analyst Conviction & High Short Interest: Analyst coverage is sparse (only 3 analysts) and sentiment is mixed, with firms like Mizuho and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Neutral' ratings. The wide EPS target range ($2.21 to $3.71) reflects high uncertainty. Furthermore, a short ratio of 3.25 indicates significant bearish bets against the stock, suggesting sophisticated investors see the recent rally as unsustainable.
PBF Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend is a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the stock posting a remarkable 158.10% gain over the past year. As of the latest close at $43.00, the stock is trading at approximately 82% of its 52-week range ($16.47 to $52.18), positioning it near the upper end of its yearly band, which signals strong momentum but also raises questions about potential overextension after such a significant rally. Recent momentum shows a notable divergence from the longer-term trend; while the stock is up 28.51% over the last three months, it has declined -6.70% over the past month, indicating a significant short-term pullback or consolidation phase that may represent profit-taking after the parabolic move earlier in Q1 2026. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $52.18 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $16.47 as long-term support. A breakout above the $52.18 resistance would signal a resumption of the powerful bull trend, while a sustained break below the recent consolidation range could indicate a deeper correction; the stock's beta of 0.233 suggests it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY) during this period, which is atypical for a cyclical energy name and may indicate a degree of price stability relative to its sector peers.
Beta
0.14
0.14x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$18-$52
Price range past year
Annual Return
+88.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.4% | +5.6% |
| 3m | +22.5% | +8.4% |
| 6m | +8.5% | +10.0% |
| 1y | +88.8% | +25.2% |
| ytd | +48.3% | +8.4% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
The revenue trajectory is volatile and currently showing signs of pressure, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $7.14 billion representing a -2.88% year-over-year decline. The multi-quarter trend reveals significant instability, with revenue swinging from $7.07 billion in Q1 2025 to $7.65 billion in Q3 2025 before the recent Q4 dip, indicating that top-line growth is highly sensitive to commodity price cycles and refining margins rather than showing organic expansion. Profitability is inconsistent and currently challenged, as evidenced by a net income of $78.4 million in Q4 2025 on a gross margin of -1.85%, reflecting a quarter where the cost of revenue exceeded sales; the trend over recent quarters shows wild swings from a net loss of -$401.8 million in Q1 2025 to a profit of $170.1 million in Q3 2025, highlighting the extreme cyclicality and margin compression inherent in the refining business. The balance sheet and cash flow situation is mixed, with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 indicating moderate financial leverage, but a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$783.2 million and a current ratio of 1.21 point to potential liquidity strain; the negative free cash flow, coupled with an ROE of -2.98%, suggests the company is not currently generating sufficient internal cash to fund operations comfortably without external financing or drawing on reserves.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.01%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-783200000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given the trailing twelve-month net income is negative (-$0.05 EPS), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 0.105, which is exceptionally low, while the forward-looking metric is the EV/Sales of 0.258; the gap between these sales-based multiples suggests the market is anticipating some revenue stabilization or growth, but is still pricing the business at a deep discount to its sales. Compared to industry averages, specific data is not available in the provided dataset for a direct sector PS or EV/Sales comparison; however, a PS ratio of 0.105 is intuitively very low and typically signifies the market is assigning little to no premium for growth or profitability, which aligns with the company's cyclical, low-margin profile and recent net losses. Historically, the current PS ratio of 0.105 is near the absolute bottom of its own historical range observed in the data, which has seen PS ratios as high as 0.812 in early 2024; trading at such depressed historical multiples suggests the market is either pricing in severe fundamental deterioration or presenting a deep value opportunity if refining margins recover as recent news headlines on crack spreads imply.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on cash burn and margin instability. The company's trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$783.2 million, indicating it is consuming, not generating, cash. With a current ratio of 1.21, liquidity is thin, and the negative ROE of -2.98% shows it destroys shareholder value in aggregate. Revenue is highly volatile, swinging by over $1 billion between recent quarters, and the most recent quarter showed a gross margin of -1.85%, meaning the core refining business was unprofitable. The company's survival depends on a sustained, high-margin environment to reverse these trends.
Market & Competitive Risks are dominated by the cyclical nature of refining margins. The stock's valuation, while low on a PS basis, is forward-looking and priced for a recovery. The primary risk is a rapid normalization of crack spreads due to geopolitical de-escalation or increased global refining capacity, which would immediately collapse the bullish earnings thesis. The stock's low beta of 0.233 is anomalous and may not hold in a sector-wide sell-off. Furthermore, the stock trades at 82% of its 52-week range after a parabolic move, making it vulnerable to sharp profit-taking, as seen in the recent -6.7% one-month pullback.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a rapid deflation of the refining supercycle narrative coinciding with a broader market downturn. In this scenario, crack spreads collapse to historical averages, PBF returns to consistent quarterly losses as seen in 2024, and its cash burn accelerates, potentially leading to credit rating downgrades or dilutive financing. The stock could realistically re-test its 52-week low of $16.47, representing a downside of approximately -62% from the current price of $43. Even a less severe correction to the lower end of its recent trading range around $26 (seen in Dec 2025) implies a -40% decline.