PBF Energy
PBF
$52.90
+9.16%
PBF Energy Inc is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States, operating refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. As a pure-play independent refiner, PBF distinguishes itself through its scale and logistics assets, including crude oil and refined products terminals, pipelines, and storage facilities. The current investor narrative is dominated by a historic refining margin supercycle driven by geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, which have sent gasoline above $4 and diesel to record levels, creating a windfall profit environment for U.S. refiners. Recent news highlights that PBF is one of the key beneficiaries of this crack spread widening, with analysts debating whether the rally is sustainable or a temporary spike warranting profit-taking.…
PBF
PBF Energy
$52.90
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PBF Today?
Rating: Hold. PBF Energy is a speculative buy for investors with a high risk tolerance who believe the refining supercycle will persist, but for most investors, the risks of negative free cash flow and geopolitical dependency warrant a Hold. The analyst consensus is mixed, with an average EPS estimate of $6.10 implying a forward P/E of 7.8x, but the wide dispersion and limited coverage reduce conviction.
Supporting Evidence: PBF's trailing P/S ratio of 0.11x is a deep discount to the industry average (typically 0.3-0.5x), and the price-to-book ratio of 0.58x indicates the stock trades below book value. Revenue has stabilized around $7.1-7.6 billion per quarter, and the trajectory of net income is improving, from a loss of $401.8M in Q1 2025 to a profit of $78.4M in Q4 2025. However, free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$783.2M TTM, and the gross margin is still negative at -1.85%. The forward P/E of 8.5x suggests the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, but this is contingent on sustained high crack spreads.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a de-escalation of the Iran conflict, which would likely cause crack spreads to collapse, and the company's inability to generate positive free cash flow. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if free cash flow turns positive and the forward P/E compresses below 6x, or if the geopolitical situation escalates further. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative again or if the stock breaks below $40 support. Overall, PBF appears undervalued on a P/S and P/B basis relative to history, but the valuation is justified by the cyclical risks and negative cash flow.
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PBF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, driven by the deep value valuation and strong momentum from the refining supercycle. However, the negative free cash flow and dependency on geopolitical tensions temper enthusiasm. The base case of a trading range between $40 and $52 is most likely, but the bull case has a 30% probability if the conflict escalates. The key risk is a sudden de-escalation, which would trigger a bear case. The stance would upgrade to high confidence if free cash flow turns positive, and downgrade to neutral if crack spreads narrow significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PBF Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $68.77 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$68.77
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$42 - $69
Analyst target range
Only 2 analysts cover PBF Energy, indicating limited institutional interest typical of a mid-cap cyclical stock. The consensus recommendation leans neutral, with ratings including Neutral from Mizuho and Goldman Sachs, Overweight from Piper Sandler, and Buy from UBS, but also Sell from TD Cowen and Underperform from Wolfe Research. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $6.10, with a low of $4.62 and high of $8.03, implying a forward P/E range of 5.9x to 10.4x based on the current price of $47.81. The average revenue estimate is $41.5 billion, with a low of $33.7 billion and high of $51.5 billion, reflecting high uncertainty. The implied upside to the average target (not explicitly given, but using the average EPS and a reasonable multiple) is difficult to calculate without explicit price targets, but the wide range of EPS estimates (74% spread from low to high) signals high uncertainty. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from Mizuho (from Underperform to Neutral) and downgrades from Wolfe Research (from Peer Perform to Underperform), reflecting mixed sentiment. The limited coverage and wide estimate dispersion suggest that PBF is a high-risk, high-reward name where investors must rely on their own view of refining margins rather than analyst consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: PBF Investment Factors
PBF Energy presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The bull case rests on a historic refining margin supercycle driven by geopolitical tensions, deep value valuation (P/S 0.11x, P/B 0.58x), and strong price momentum. However, the bear case highlights negative free cash flow (-$783M TTM), cyclical earnings volatility, limited analyst coverage, and the risk that the geopolitical catalysts prove temporary. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the magnitude of the crack spread widening and the stock's deep discount, but the single most important tension is the sustainability of the Iran conflict and its impact on refining margins. If the conflict persists or escalates, PBF could see significant upside; if it de-escalates, the stock could fall sharply.
Bullish
- Historic Crack Spread Windfall: Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, have driven gasoline above $4 and diesel to record levels, creating a supercycle for U.S. refiners. PBF, as a pure-play independent refiner, is a direct beneficiary of this margin expansion, with recent news highlighting a 'refiner earnings supercycle' that could drive significant earnings recovery.
- Deep Value Valuation: PBF trades at a trailing P/S ratio of 0.11x and a price-to-book ratio of 0.58x, both near historical lows and well below industry averages. The forward P/E of 8.5x based on estimated EPS of $6.10 implies substantial upside if earnings materialize, offering a margin of safety for value-oriented investors.
- Strong Price Momentum: The stock has surged 100.6% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. With a 1-month relative strength of +12.0% vs. SPY, momentum remains strong, and the stock is trading at 91.6% of its 52-week high, indicating continued bullish sentiment.
- Improving Profitability Trajectory: After a loss of $401.8 million in Q1 2025, net income swung to a profit of $78.4 million in Q4 2025, with gross margin improving from -5.9% to -1.8%. The trajectory is positive, and with crack spreads widening, further margin expansion is expected, potentially leading to positive TTM net income.
Bearish
- Negative Free Cash Flow: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$783.2 million, driven by large working capital outflows and capital expenditures of $289.6 million in Q4 2025 alone. This negative cash flow raises concerns about the company's ability to fund operations and dividends without external financing.
- Cyclical Earnings Volatility: PBF's earnings are highly cyclical, with net income swinging from -$401.8 million in Q1 2025 to $78.4 million in Q4 2025. The trailing net margin is -0.5%, and the company remains unprofitable on a TTM basis, highlighting the risk of relying on temporary geopolitical tailwinds.
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Mixed Sentiment: Only 2 analysts cover PBF, with ratings ranging from Buy to Sell, reflecting high uncertainty. The wide dispersion in EPS estimates ($4.62 to $8.03) and revenue estimates ($33.7B to $51.5B) indicates a lack of consensus, making the stock difficult to evaluate.
- Geopolitical Risk Reversal: The current rally is heavily dependent on the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade. Any de-escalation or ceasefire could cause crack spreads to collapse, leading to a sharp reversal in earnings and stock price. The Investing.com article specifically warns that the rally is 'temporary' and suggests taking profits.
PBF Technical Analysis
PBF Energy's stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +100.6%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1% over the same period. The current price of $47.81 sits at 91.6% of its 52-week range ($21.24 low to $52.18 high), indicating the stock is near its highs and reflecting strong momentum, though it also suggests the stock may be overextended in the near term. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month price change of +10.7% and a 3-month change of +5.3%, both positive but showing a deceleration from the explosive 6-month gain of +67.6%. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is +12.0%, confirming the stock's recent outperformance, while the 3-month relative strength is -8.2%, indicating a brief period of underperformance in the spring before the latest surge. The stock's beta of 0.1 is unusually low, suggesting it has been less volatile than the market historically, but this may understate the recent price swings driven by geopolitical catalysts. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $21.24, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $52.18; a breakout above $52.18 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below recent support near $40 could indicate a reversal. The low beta implies that PBF's recent moves are idiosyncratic rather than market-driven, which is consistent with the refining margin narrative.
Beta
0.10
0.10x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$21-$53
Price range past year
Annual Return
+107.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PBF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +24.9% | +0.8% |
| 3m | +30.5% | +9.6% |
| 6m | +61.4% | +7.4% |
| 1y | +107.3% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +85.4% | +9.3% |
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PBF Fundamental Analysis
PBF Energy's revenue trajectory has been volatile but recently stabilizing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $7.14 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year from $7.35 billion in Q4 2024. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $7.07 billion to $7.65 billion, showing a slight downward trend from the $8.38 billion peak in Q3 2024. The Refining segment generated $7.13 billion in Q4 2025, while Logistics contributed $93.5 million, highlighting the dominance of refining. The revenue decline reflects lower throughput and weaker margins earlier in 2025, but recent geopolitical events are expected to reverse this trend. Profitability has been erratic: net income swung from a loss of $401.8 million in Q1 2025 to a profit of $78.4 million in Q4 2025, with gross margin improving from -5.9% in Q1 to -1.8% in Q4. The company remains unprofitable on a trailing twelve-month basis, with a net margin of -0.5% and an operating margin of -0.2%, but the trajectory is improving as crack spreads widen. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 and a current ratio of 1.21, indicating adequate liquidity. However, free cash flow has been negative over the trailing twelve months at -$783.2 million, driven by large working capital outflows and capital expenditures of $289.6 million in Q4 2025 alone. The negative free cash flow raises concerns about the company's ability to fund operations internally, though the recent cash flow from operations of $366.6 million in Q4 2025 provides some relief.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.01%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-783200000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PBF Overvalued?
Given that PBF's trailing net income is negative (TTM net income of -$401.8 million + $78.4 million + $170.1 million + -$5.2 million = -$158.5 million), the trailing P/E ratio of -19.5 is not meaningful, so we use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/S ratio is 0.11x, while the forward P/E (based on estimated EPS of $6.10) is 8.5x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. Compared to the industry average P/S ratio (not provided, but typically around 0.3-0.5x for refiners), PBF's 0.11x is a significant discount, suggesting the market is pricing in the recent losses and uncertainty. Historically, PBF's P/S ratio has ranged from 0.19x in 2021 to 0.81x in early 2024, and the current 0.11x is near the bottom of its historical range, indicating deep value territory. The price-to-book ratio of 0.58x also supports this, as it trades below book value, often a sign of distress or undervaluation. The low valuation multiples reflect the cyclical nature of refining and the company's recent losses, but the forward P/E of 8.5x suggests that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could offer significant upside.
PE
-19.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-21.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: PBF's negative free cash flow of -$783.2 million over the trailing twelve months is a critical risk, as it indicates the company is consuming cash despite recent profitability improvements. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 is moderate, but the current ratio of 1.21 provides only a thin liquidity buffer. Revenue has declined 2.9% year-over-year in Q4 2025, and the company's reliance on volatile refining margins means any downturn in crack spreads could quickly reverse the recent earnings recovery. Capital expenditures of $289.6 million in Q4 2025 alone add to the cash burn, and the negative TTM free cash flow raises questions about dividend sustainability (payout ratio of -0.80).
Market & Competitive Risks: PBF trades at a forward P/E of 8.5x, which is low but justified by the cyclical nature of refining. The stock's beta of 0.1 is unusually low, suggesting it has been less correlated with the market, but this may understate the risk of a sector rotation out of energy. The limited analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) means less institutional interest and potentially higher volatility. The recent downgrade from Wolfe Research (Underperform) and the Investing.com article advising profit-taking highlight the risk that the current rally is overdone. Additionally, the industry faces regulatory risks from potential environmental policies and the long-term shift away from fossil fuels.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Iran conflict de-escalates and crack spreads normalize, PBF's earnings could revert to losses, as seen in Q1 2025. The stock could fall to its 52-week low of $21.24, representing a 55.6% decline from the current price of $47.81. This scenario would be exacerbated if the company continues to burn cash, potentially leading to dividend cuts or equity dilution. The historical max drawdown of -35.34% provides a reference, but given the current geopolitical premium, a decline to the 52-week low is a realistic worst-case outcome.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Geopolitical risk: The stock's rally is driven by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade; any de-escalation could cause crack spreads to collapse, leading to a sharp decline. 2) Financial risk: Negative free cash flow of -$783M TTM and a negative net margin of -0.5% indicate the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations. 3) Cyclical risk: Refining margins are highly volatile, and PBF's earnings have swung from a loss of $401.8M in Q1 2025 to a profit of $78.4M in Q4 2025. 4) Limited coverage: Only 2 analysts cover the stock, leading to less institutional interest and potentially higher volatility. The most severe risk is a geopolitical resolution, which could send the stock back to its 52-week low of $21.24, a 55.6% decline from the current price.
The 12-month outlook is uncertain, with three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) sees the stock reaching $52-$60 if the Iran conflict escalates and crack spreads widen further. Base case (45% probability) expects the stock to trade between $40 and $52, with EPS around the $6.10 average estimate. Bear case (25% probability) sees the stock falling to $21-$35 if geopolitical tensions ease and crack spreads normalize. The base case is most likely, but the wide range reflects the high dependency on geopolitical events. Investors should monitor crack spreads and news on the Iran conflict for directional cues.
PBF appears undervalued based on traditional metrics. The trailing P/S ratio of 0.11x is well below the industry average of 0.3-0.5x, and the price-to-book ratio of 0.58x indicates the stock trades below its book value. Historically, PBF's P/S has ranged from 0.19x to 0.81x, so the current level is near the bottom. The forward P/E of 8.5x based on estimated EPS of $6.10 suggests the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. However, the low valuation multiples are justified by the company's recent losses and cyclical risks. Overall, PBF is undervalued relative to its own history and peers, but the discount reflects the high uncertainty and negative free cash flow.
PBF is a high-risk, high-reward stock that could be a good buy for aggressive investors who believe the refining supercycle will continue. The stock trades at a deep discount with a P/S ratio of 0.11x and a forward P/E of 8.5x, implying significant upside if earnings recover as expected. However, the company has negative free cash flow of -$783M TTM and is heavily dependent on geopolitical tensions. The analyst consensus is mixed, with an average EPS estimate of $6.10, but the wide range ($4.62 to $8.03) reflects high uncertainty. For risk-tolerant investors with a short-term horizon, it could be a good buy; for long-term or conservative investors, the risks likely outweigh the potential rewards.
PBF is more suitable for short-term trading than long-term investing. The stock has a beta of 0.1, indicating low historical correlation with the market, but its recent price action is driven by idiosyncratic geopolitical catalysts that are inherently temporary. The company's negative free cash flow and cyclical earnings make it a poor long-term compounder. The dividend yield of 4.09% is attractive, but the payout ratio of -0.80 suggests the dividend may not be sustainable. For short-term traders, the stock offers momentum and volatility; for long-term investors, the risks of mean reversion in crack spreads and structural decline in refining demand are significant. A suggested minimum holding period is 3-6 months, aligned with the duration of the current geopolitical tensions.