PSX

Phillips 66

$187.81

+5.02%
Jul 8, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Phillips 66 is an independent energy refining and midstream company that operates 10 refineries with a total crude throughput capacity of 2.0 million barrels per day, along with extensive pipeline and NGL processing assets. As a major independent refiner, it distinguishes itself through its integrated midstream network and a 50% stake in the CPChem chemical joint venture, providing diversification beyond pure refining. The stock is currently in focus due to a historic surge in refining margins driven by geopolitical tensions and a structural shortage of global refining capacity, which has propelled earnings and sparked debate about the sustainability of this 'supercycle' and the company's ability to manage volatility in its other segments.

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PSX 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $187.81
Average Target $187.81
High Target $215.98149999999998
Low Target $159.6385

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Phillips 66's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $244.15 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$244.15

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$150 - $244

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Only one analyst currently covers Phillips 66, with an average EPS estimate of $26.00 for the next fiscal year, ranging from $20.70 to $32.45. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the single analyst coverage suggests limited institutional attention. The average revenue estimate is $185.6 billion, with a range of $156.5 billion to $221.0 billion. Given the limited coverage, it is difficult to gauge market sentiment, but the wide EPS range indicates high uncertainty about future earnings. Insufficient analyst coverage is available to provide a consensus target price or buy/sell distribution. This limited coverage implies that Phillips 66 is a large-cap stock with relatively low analyst interest, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. Investors should rely more on fundamental analysis and industry trends rather than analyst consensus. The lack of ratings from major firms (though some have issued neutral or overweight ratings in the past) suggests the stock may be overlooked, potentially offering opportunities for those who do their own research.

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PSX Technical Analysis

Phillips 66 is in a strong uptrend, with the stock up 39.5% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $176.42 sits at 72.6% of its 52-week range ($118.07-$190.61), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but not yet at overbought extremes near the highs. This positioning suggests bullish momentum remains intact, though the stock is closer to resistance than support, implying a potential for consolidation or a breakout attempt. Over the past three months, the stock has gained only 0.1%, while the one-month change is -3.4%, showing a clear deceleration from the strong six-month gain of 35.1%. This short-term weakness contrasts with the robust one-year trend, suggesting a pullback or consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over one month is -2.1%, indicating underperformance recently, which could signal profit-taking or sector rotation. The 52-week low of $118.07 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $190.61 is the key resistance level. A breakout above $190.61 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers, while a breakdown below $118.07 would be a bearish reversal. The stock's beta of 0.68 indicates it is 32% less volatile than the market, making it a lower-risk holding within the energy sector, which may appeal to conservative investors.

Beta

0.68

0.68x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-17.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$118-$191

Price range past year

Annual Return

+44.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodPSX ReturnS&P 500
1m+2.4%+0.8%
3m+16.6%+9.6%
6m+32.1%+7.4%
1y+44.5%+20.2%
ytd+43.8%+9.3%

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PSX Fundamental Analysis

Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $34.1 billion, up 1.2% year-over-year, but this follows a volatile pattern: Q3 2025 revenue was $34.5 billion, Q2 2025 was $33.3 billion, and Q1 2025 was $30.5 billion. The slight YoY growth masks significant quarterly fluctuations, with revenue declining from Q3 to Q4. The company's revenue is heavily tied to refining margins, which have been boosted by geopolitical events, but the underlying trend shows stagnation rather than robust growth. Net income in Q4 2025 surged to $2.9 billion, a massive turnaround from $8 million in Q4 2024, driven by strong refining performance. Gross margin improved to 6.7% from 1.8% a year ago, but remains low compared to historical levels, reflecting the high cost of revenue. Operating margin was 4.7%, up from 0.1% in Q4 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency. However, the company's profitability is highly cyclical; in Q1 2025, operating income was negative -$166 million, highlighting the volatility. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, which is manageable, and a current ratio of 1.30, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $2.7 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends and capital expenditures. ROE stands at 15.1%, reflecting strong profitability in the recent quarter, but this is likely to be cyclical. The company generated $2.8 billion in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, comfortably covering its $682 million in capital expenditures, demonstrating self-funding capability.

Quarterly Revenue

$34.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.01%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.06%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Consolidation, Eliminations
Crude Oil
Natural Gas Liquids
Other Product Line

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Valuation Analysis: Is PSX Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.9x, while the forward P/E is 10.1x, implying the market expects earnings to grow over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests modest earnings growth expectations, which is reasonable given the cyclical nature of refining. Compared to the industry average P/E (not provided, but typically for refiners around 8-12x), Phillips 66's trailing P/E of 11.9x is near the higher end, reflecting the recent earnings surge. The P/S ratio of 0.40x is low, indicating the stock is cheap relative to sales, but this is typical for low-margin refiners. Historically, Phillips 66's trailing P/E has ranged from around 4x to over 100x in the past five years, reflecting extreme cyclicality. The current 11.9x is near the middle of that range, suggesting the market is pricing in normalized earnings rather than peak-cycle profits. The P/B ratio of 1.80x is below the historical average of around 2.0x, indicating the stock is trading at a slight discount to book value relative to its own history, which could be attractive if earnings remain strong.

PE

11.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -14x~1486x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple