PJT Partners
PJT
$149.33
-0.60%
PJT Partners Inc. is an advisory-focused investment bank that provides strategic advisory, capital markets advisory, restructuring and special situations, and shareholder advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, institutional investors, and governments, alongside private fund advisory and fundraising services for alternative investment strategies. Unlike bulge-bracket peers, PJT operates a deliberately asset-light, advisory-only model with no lending or trading balance sheet, positioning it as a pure-play M&A and restructuring boutique whose earnings are highly geared to deal activity. The current investor narrative centers on the firm's leverage to a recovering global M&A cycle and a still-elevated restructuring backlog, with the stock's sharp August rally to a 52-week high of $195.62 reflecting optimism around deal-fee momentum before a late-August/September pullback of roughly 16% from that peak. With only five analysts covering the name and a consensus target well above the current price, the debate is whether the recent selloff is a buying opportunity in a structurally advantaged advisory franchise or the start of a de-rating as deal expectations reset.…
PJT
PJT Partners
$149.33
Investment Opinion: Should I buy PJT Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold with a bullish bias. PJT's forward P/E of 18.0x and PEG of 0.733 suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects, and the consensus target of $187.80 implies 15.1% upside. However, the recent 16.6% pullback from the 52-week high and negative 1-month relative strength warrant caution until deal activity shows clearer signs of reacceleration.
The supporting evidence is compelling: revenue is estimated at $2.43 billion, implying a P/S of 2.51x; net margin is 10.51% and operating margin is 21.17%; ROE is 58.43% and ROA is 21.10%; and free cash flow generation is strong with a P/CF of 8.17x. The dividend yield of 0.57% with a payout ratio of 13.61% leaves ample room for reinvestment. Analyst targets range from $171 to $203, all above the current price, and the tight EPS range ($10.71–$11.24) signals high conviction. Compared to peers, PJT's forward P/E is at a discount to premium franchises like Evercore, though data on industry averages is limited.
The biggest risks are a stall in M&A activity, which would hit revenue and earnings; multiple compression if growth disappoints; and thin analyst coverage amplifying volatility. The Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock reclaims $180 and deal activity accelerates, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or the stock breaks below $150. On balance, PJT appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its history and growth prospects, but the cyclical nature of its business and recent momentum breakdown justify a cautious stance.
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PJT 12-Month Price Forecast
PJT presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The valuation is undemanding at 18.0x forward earnings, and the balance sheet is fortress-like with a current ratio of 27.67. However, the stock's recent momentum breakdown and cyclical revenue base introduce uncertainty. The base case (50% probability) targets $171–$188, implying moderate upside. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock reclaims $180 and deal activity accelerates, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth turns negative or the stock breaks below $150. The key monitorable is the pace of M&A and restructuring announcements in the coming quarters.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on PJT Partners's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $187.80 and implied upside of +25.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$187.80
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$171 - $203
Analyst target range
Coverage is thin but uniformly constructive: five analysts cover PJT, with a consensus average target price of $187.80, implying approximately +15.1% upside from the current price of $163.21. The recommendation field is listed as "none," meaning a standardized consensus rating is unavailable, but the target distribution — with the low end at $171.00 (still +4.8% above the current price) and the high end at $203.00 (+24.4%) — indicates that every published target sits above the market price, a bullish signal. The consensus EPS estimate of $11.01 (range $10.71 to $11.24) and revenue estimate of $2.428 billion (range $2.377 billion to $2.467 billion) show tight dispersion, suggesting analysts share a high-conviction view on near-term earnings power. The narrow EPS range (a spread of just $0.53, or 4.8% of the average) signals stronger conviction than the wider price-target spread implies. The high target of $203.00 assumes a re-rating toward the mid-20s forward P/E on accelerating M&A and restructuring fees, while the low target of $171.00 prices in a more modest recovery with stable margins and no multiple expansion. The $32 spread between the low and high targets (18.7% of the average) is moderate and reflects uncertainty about the durability of the deal cycle rather than company-specific risk; with only five analysts and no institutional ratings data provided, the stock likely suffers from limited institutional sponsorship, which can amplify volatility and create inefficiencies — consistent with the 4.49 short ratio and the 32.58% max drawdown observed over the past year.
Bulls vs Bears: PJT Investment Factors
The bull case rests on PJT's undemanding 18.0x forward P/E, elite 58.43% ROE, and unanimous analyst targets above the current price, while the bear case centers on revenue cyclicality, thin coverage, and a sharp momentum breakdown from the August high. The evidence currently favors the bulls on valuation and profitability, but the bears have the stronger near-term technical momentum argument given the 16.6% pullback and negative 1-month relative strength. The single most important tension is whether the recent selloff is a buying opportunity ahead of a deal-cycle recovery or the start of a de-rating as deal expectations reset. If M&A activity reaccelerates, the stock could re-rate toward the mid-20s forward P/E implied by the high target; if deal flow stalls, the multiple could compress toward the low-to-mid teens. The resolution of this tension will determine whether PJT is a value play or a value trap.
Bullish
- Undemanding Forward Valuation: PJT trades at a forward P/E of 18.0x on consensus EPS of $11.01, near the low end of its post-IPO range. With a PEG ratio of 0.733, the stock is inexpensive relative to expected earnings growth of roughly 33% implied by the gap between trailing (23.89x) and forward (18.0x) multiples.
- Elite Profitability and Balance Sheet: ROE of 58.43% and ROA of 21.10% are exceptional for the sector, while a current ratio of 27.67 and debt-to-equity of 1.34 (largely operating liabilities) signal minimal solvency risk. The asset-light advisory model requires little capital to scale.
- Analyst Targets All Above Market: All five covering analysts have price targets above the current $163.21, with a consensus average of $187.80 (+15.1% upside) and a low target of $171.00 (+4.8%). The tight EPS range ($10.71–$11.24) suggests high conviction in near-term earnings power.
- Strong Cash Conversion: The price-to-cash-flow ratio of 8.17x is low in absolute terms and implies efficient conversion of earnings to cash. With a payout ratio of just 13.61%, PJT retains substantial capital for reinvestment or special distributions.
Bearish
- Revenue Cyclicality and Lumpy Deal Flow: PJT's revenue is entirely transaction-driven, with no recurring subscription base. The 12.68% one-year price decline and -3.73% YTD performance reflect how quickly sentiment can reverse when deal activity slows, as seen after the August peak.
- Sharp Momentum Breakdown: The stock has fallen 16.6% from its 52-week high of $195.62 and dropped 4.97% in the latest session alone. One-month relative strength versus SPY is -3.27 percentage points, signaling a loss of near-term traction that could persist.
- Thin Analyst Coverage and Institutional Neglect: Only five analysts cover PJT, and no standardized consensus rating is available. Limited institutional sponsorship can amplify volatility, as evidenced by the 4.49 short ratio and -32.58% max drawdown over the past year.
- Premium Price-to-Book Multiple: The P/B ratio of 13.95x is elevated and reflects minimal tangible book value. While high ROE justifies some premium, any deterioration in returns could trigger a sharp de-rating given the lack of asset backing.
PJT Technical Analysis
PJT is in a broad recovery uptrend that has stalled: the stock is up 26.32% over six months and 7.11% over three months, but down 12.68% over one year and 3.73% year-to-date, a divergence that reflects a strong H2 2026 rebound following a weak prior-year base. At $163.21, the shares sit at roughly 51% of the 52-week range (low $127.73, high $195.62), meaning the stock has surrendered most of its August breakout gains but remains well above its annual low — a positioning that suggests neither an oversold value opportunity nor a momentum leader, but rather a stock digesting a sharp run. The 52-week high of $195.62 was set in early September, and the current price is about 16.6% below that peak, indicating the uptrend has lost near-term traction. Recent momentum has deteriorated sharply: the stock fell 4.33% over the past month and 4.97% in the latest session alone, with the 1-month relative strength versus SPY at -3.27 percentage points, even as the 3-month and 6-month relative strength remain positive at +4.07 and +10.92 points. This conflict — positive medium-term relative performance but negative short-term — signals a momentum deceleration and possible mean reversion after the July–August surge from roughly $146 to $195, with the latest close of $163.21 marking a rapid give-back of more than $30 from the peak. The 52-week low at $127.73 is the key support zone, about 21.7% below the current price, while immediate resistance sits at the September high of $195.62; a break below the $150–155 area (the June/July consolidation shelf) would threaten the medium-term uptrend, whereas reclaiming $180 would re-establish bullish momentum. With a beta of 0.833, PJT is roughly 17% less volatile than the broader market, which argues for smaller position-sizing adjustments than a high-beta name, though the 4.49 short ratio and -32.58% max drawdown show the stock can still experience sharp, sentiment-driven moves.
Beta
0.83
0.83x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$128-$196
Price range past year
Annual Return
-19.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PJT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -15.4% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -2.0% | +4.6% |
| 6m | +9.4% | +21.1% |
| 1y | -19.3% | +15.8% |
| ytd | -11.9% | +12.6% |
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PJT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue trajectory data is limited in the provided dataset — quarterly financials, income statements, and revenue segments are all empty — but the analyst consensus estimates full-year revenue of approximately $2.428 billion (range $2.377 billion to $2.467 billion), which against a market cap of $4.30 billion implies a price-to-sales ratio of 2.51x. The company's advisory-only model means revenue is transaction-driven and lumpy, with growth tied to M&A and restructuring fee pools rather than recurring subscriptions; the 26.32% six-month price gain and the 7.11% three-month gain suggest the market has been pricing in an improving deal environment. However, the 12.68% one-year decline and -3.73% YTD performance indicate that the prior-year comparison base was strong and that growth expectations have moderated, leaving the investment case dependent on a reacceleration in announced and completed deal volumes. Profitability is solid for an advisory boutique: net margin is 10.51%, operating margin is 21.17%, and gross margin is 32.43%, with a trailing EPS of $0.0419 (likely a data artifact or post-distribution adjustment) and a forward EPS estimate of $11.01. The 21.17% operating margin is healthy but below the peak margins PJT has historically achieved in strong restructuring cycles, implying operating leverage remains available if revenues scale; the 10.51% net margin reflects the partnership-style compensation structure that consumes a large share of revenue. The forward EPS estimate of $11.01 against a $163.21 price implies a forward P/E of about 14.8x, which is undemanding for a franchise with a 58.43% ROE, though the trailing P/E of 23.89x on the distorted trailing EPS figure is not meaningful. The balance sheet is exceptionally liquid and low-risk: the current ratio is 27.67, debt-to-equity is 1.34 (largely reflecting operating lease and compensation-related liabilities rather than funded debt), and ROE is 58.43% with ROA of 21.10%, both elite figures for the sector. Free cash flow generation is implied by the price-to-cash-flow ratio of 8.17x, which is low in absolute terms and suggests the business converts earnings to cash efficiently; the dividend yield of 0.57% with a payout ratio of just 13.61% leaves substantial retained capital for reinvestment and special distributions. The main financial risk is revenue cyclicality, not solvency — PJT depends on external deal flow rather than internal financing, and its net cash position means it can fund growth and weather downturns without balance-sheet stress.
Quarterly Revenue
$486290000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
99.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$661825000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PJT Overvalued?
Because PJT is profitable — net margin of 10.51% and positive forward EPS of $11.01 — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the forward P/E of 18.0x is the most meaningful figure given the distorted trailing EPS. The gap between the trailing P/E of 23.89x and the forward P/E of 18.0x implies the market expects earnings growth of roughly 33% over the next twelve months, consistent with the consensus revenue estimate of $2.43 billion and a recovery in advisory fees. The PEG ratio of 0.733 (below 1.0) suggests the stock is inexpensive relative to its expected growth rate, a supportive signal if the earnings trajectory materializes. On a peer-comparison basis, the data does not provide an explicit industry average multiple, but PJT's 18.0x forward P/E and 2.51x P/S sit at a premium to traditional asset-light advisory peers on P/S but at a discount to premium franchise names like Evercore or Moelis on forward earnings, depending on cycle positioning; the 13.95x P/B ratio is elevated and reflects the firm's minimal tangible book value and high returns on equity rather than an overvaluation signal. The EV/EBITDA of 10.60x and EV/Sales of 2.78x are moderate for a financial advisory firm and suggest the market is not pricing in heroic margin expansion. Historically, PJT has traded in a wide P/E band through deal cycles, and the current 18.0x forward multiple is near the lower end of its post-IPO range, implying the market is pricing in a conservative deal environment; if M&A activity reaccelerates, multiple expansion toward the mid-20s is plausible, but if deal flow stalls, the stock could compress toward the low-to-mid teens. The 0.57% dividend yield and 13.61% payout ratio are not valuation drivers but confirm a shareholder-return framework that supports the floor valuation.
PE
23.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 9x~32x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
PJT's financial risks are primarily cyclical rather than solvency-related. The company operates with a current ratio of 27.67 and debt-to-equity of 1.34, the latter largely reflecting operating lease and compensation liabilities rather than funded debt. However, revenue is entirely transaction-driven, with no recurring subscription base, and the 10.51% net margin reflects a partnership-style compensation structure that consumes a large share of revenue. The 21.17% operating margin, while healthy, is below peak levels achieved in strong restructuring cycles, meaning earnings could fall sharply if deal volumes decline. The trailing EPS of $0.0419 is a data artifact, but the forward EPS of $11.01 implies that any miss in advisory fees would have an outsized impact on earnings. The main financial risk is not balance-sheet stress but earnings volatility tied to external deal flow.
Market and competitive risks are significant given PJT's premium positioning and thin analyst coverage. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.0x and a P/B of 13.95x, leaving little room for error if growth disappoints. With only five analysts covering the name and no standardized consensus rating, institutional sponsorship is limited, which can amplify volatility—evidenced by the 4.49 short ratio and -32.58% max drawdown. The beta of 0.833 suggests lower market correlation, but the advisory business is highly sensitive to macro conditions, and a recession or credit crunch would reduce M&A and restructuring activity. Additionally, competition from bulge-bracket banks and other boutiques could pressure fee rates, particularly in restructuring where PJT has historically been strong.
A worst-case scenario would involve a sharp downturn in global M&A and restructuring activity, leading to a revenue miss and multiple compression. If deal volumes stall, PJT's forward EPS could fall below $9.00, and the forward P/E could compress to 14x, implying a price near $126—roughly in line with the 52-week low of $127.73. From the current price of $163.21, that represents a downside of approximately 21.7%. A more severe scenario, such as a prolonged recession, could push the stock below the 52-week low toward the analyst low target of $171.00 (which is above current price, so not a downside case) or lower if estimates are cut. The -32.58% max drawdown over the past year shows that such a move is plausible. Investors could lose 20–30% from current levels in an adverse scenario.
FAQ
The most severe risk is revenue cyclicality: PJT's transaction-driven model means a downturn in M&A or restructuring activity could cause earnings to fall sharply, as evidenced by the -32.58% max drawdown over the past year. Second, valuation compression risk: at 18.0x forward earnings, any growth disappointment could lead to multiple contraction. Third, thin analyst coverage (only five analysts) and limited institutional sponsorship can amplify volatility, with a short ratio of 4.49. Fourth, competitive pressure from larger banks and other boutiques could erode fee rates. These risks are ranked from most to least severe, with cyclicality being the primary concern.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) targets $171–$188, assuming gradual deal recovery and EPS of $11.01. The bull case (30% probability) targets $195–$203, driven by accelerating M&A and multiple expansion. The bear case (20% probability) targets $127–$150, reflecting a recession and deal slowdown. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that global M&A volumes grow modestly and PJT meets consensus estimates. The consensus analyst target of $187.80 aligns with the base case.
PJT appears undervalued on forward earnings. The forward P/E of 18.0x is near the low end of its post-IPO range, and the PEG ratio of 0.733 (below 1.0) suggests the stock is inexpensive relative to expected growth. The P/S of 2.51x and EV/EBITDA of 10.60x are moderate for an advisory firm. The market is pricing in a conservative deal environment; if M&A activity accelerates, multiple expansion toward the mid-20s is plausible. However, the P/B of 13.95x is elevated, reflecting minimal tangible book value. Overall, the valuation is attractive relative to history and growth prospects.
PJT offers a compelling risk/reward for patient investors. The stock trades at 18.0x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.733, and all five analysts have targets above the current price, averaging $187.80 (+15.1% upside). The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with a current ratio of 27.67 and ROE of 58.43%. However, the recent 16.6% pullback from the 52-week high and negative 1-month relative strength suggest near-term caution. It is a good buy for investors with a 12–18 month horizon who believe M&A activity will recover, but not for those seeking immediate momentum.
PJT is better suited for medium- to long-term investment (12–24 months) rather than short-term trading. The stock's beta of 0.833 indicates lower volatility than the market, but its cyclical earnings and thin coverage can lead to sharp moves, as seen in the 32.58% max drawdown. The dividend yield of 0.57% is modest, so returns depend on capital appreciation. Earnings visibility is limited due to deal-flow dependence, making short-term trading risky. A minimum holding period of 12 months is suggested to ride out deal-cycle fluctuations and capture the expected recovery in advisory fees.