Stifel
SF
$80.65
-0.14%
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial services firm providing wealth management, investment banking, and lending services, operating primarily in the United States. Founded in 1890 and headquartered in St. Louis, Stifel has grown through acquisitions into a globally competitive wealth manager and broker-dealer, with a strong presence in the middle market. The company generated $5.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with roughly two-thirds from wealth management and one-third from trading and investment banking. The current investor narrative centers on the firm's ability to sustain growth in a challenging rate environment, with recent quarterly results showing strong revenue and earnings growth, while the stock has underperformed the broader market over the past year, prompting debate about its valuation and growth prospects.…
SF
Stifel
$80.65
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SF Today?
Rating: Hold. Stifel's strong recent performance and attractive valuation are offset by market underperformance and a cautious analyst outlook. The average target price of $89.00 offers a 9.5% upside, but the Hold consensus suggests limited near-term catalysts. The thesis is that the stock is fairly valued with potential for modest gains if growth continues, but not compelling enough for a Buy.
Sign up to view all
SF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Stifel's strong fundamentals, including revenue growth and margin expansion, are offset by market underperformance and a Hold consensus. The valuation is attractive, but the stock lacks momentum. If the company can sustain growth and the market recognizes its value, the stock could re-rate higher. However, if growth stalls or market conditions deteriorate, the stock could remain range-bound. Key factors to watch are revenue growth sustainability, margin trends, and relative performance vs. the market.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Stifel's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $89.00 and implied upside of +10.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$89.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+10.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $103
Analyst target range
Stifel is covered by 8 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' (based on the mix of Buy, Hold, and Neutral ratings). The average target price is $89.00, implying an upside of 9.5% from the current price of $81.29. The target range is $81.00 to $103.00, with the low target near the current price, suggesting limited downside risk, and the high target implying a 26.7% upside. The wide spread of $22 indicates moderate uncertainty about the stock's future performance. Recent ratings actions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with UBS maintaining a Buy, TD Cowen downgrading from Buy to Hold in January 2026, and Citigroup upgrading from Neutral to Buy in July 2025, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: SF Investment Factors
Stifel presents a mixed picture: strong recent financial performance with double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, but the stock has underperformed the market and carries a Hold consensus. The bull case is supported by attractive valuation (PE below industry and historical averages) and solid profitability, while the bear case highlights market underperformance and dependence on cyclical market conditions. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull side due to the compelling valuation and earnings momentum, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory in a challenging rate environment. If growth continues, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, it may remain range-bound.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Momentum: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.67 billion grew 14.7% year-over-year, with sequential growth for four consecutive quarters. This demonstrates robust demand across wealth management and investment banking, providing a solid foundation for continued expansion.
- Significant Margin Expansion: Operating margin surged to 32.6% in Q1 2026 from 4.4% a year ago, while net margin improved to 15.1% from 3.6%. This operational leverage indicates efficient cost management and scalability, driving profitability higher.
- Attractive Valuation Discount: Trailing PE of 13.3x and forward PE of 11.1x are below the industry average of 15x, representing an 11% discount. Historically, the stock has traded between 5x and 37x, with current levels near the lower end, suggesting undervaluation relative to its own history.
- Analyst Target Upside: The average analyst target price of $89.00 implies a 9.5% upside from the current price of $81.29, with a high target of $103.00 offering 26.7% upside. This suggests analysts see further appreciation potential.
Bearish
- Underperformance vs. Market: Over the past year, SF gained only 4.8% compared to the S&P 500's 18.6%, underperforming by 13.8 percentage points. This relative weakness may persist if the market continues to favor growth stocks.
- Recent Price Volatility: The stock experienced a -23.46% max drawdown over the past year, and the 1-month price change is -0.77%. This volatility could deter risk-averse investors and signal uncertainty in the near term.
- Consensus Rating is Hold: With 8 analysts, the consensus recommendation is 'Hold', reflecting a lack of strong conviction. Recent downgrades, such as TD Cowen moving from Buy to Hold in January 2026, add to the cautious sentiment.
- Dependence on Market Conditions: Revenue is heavily tied to wealth management and investment banking, which are sensitive to market cycles and interest rates. A downturn in equity markets or a prolonged high-rate environment could pressure earnings.
SF Technical Analysis
Stifel's stock is in a recovery phase, having rebounded from a 52-week low of $67.81 to a current price of $81.29, yet it remains 9.5% below its 52-week high of $89.83. Over the past year, the stock has gained 4.8%, but this lags the S&P 500's 18.6% return, indicating relative weakness. The price is currently at 78% of its 52-week range, suggesting it has recovered from the lows but still has upside potential to the highs.
Beta
0.98
0.98x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$68-$90
Price range past year
Annual Return
+7.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.6% | -1.4% |
| 3m | +13.0% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +14.8% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +7.4% | +17.2% |
| ytd | -5.7% | +11.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
SF Fundamental Analysis
Stifel's revenue has been growing steadily, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.67 billion, up 14.7% year-over-year, and the company has posted sequential growth over the past four quarters, from $1.45 billion in Q1 2025 to $1.67 billion in Q1 2026. The growth is driven by strong performance in wealth management and investment banking, with investment banking revenue of $341 million in the latest quarter. The company's net income for Q1 2026 was $251 million, with a net margin of 15.1%, up from 3.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operating leverage. Gross margin remains high at 82.8%, typical for financial services, and operating margin expanded to 32.6% in Q1 2026 from 4.4% a year ago, indicating significant efficiency gains.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
82.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$830694000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is SF Overvalued?
Given Stifel's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 13.3x, while the forward PE is 11.1x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 20% over the next year. This is supported by the company's strong recent performance and analyst estimates. Compared to the industry average PE of 15x (based on available data), Stifel trades at a discount of 11%, which may be justified by its lower growth rate relative to some peers, but its strong profitability and stable business model warrant a closer look. Historically, Stifel's PE has ranged from 5x to 37x over the past five years, with the current 13.3x sitting near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its own history, especially given the recent earnings momentum.
PE
13.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, which is manageable but could increase interest expenses if rates rise. The company's net margin, while improved, is still relatively low at 15.1%, leaving limited buffer against revenue declines. Revenue concentration in wealth management (two-thirds of total) exposes the firm to client asset fluctuations and market sentiment, which could lead to earnings volatility. Additionally, the payout ratio of 35.6% indicates a commitment to dividends, but any earnings shortfall could pressure that payout.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Market risk: With a beta of 0.99, SF moves with the market, so a broad selloff would hit the stock. 2) Interest rate risk: Higher rates could reduce trading and investment banking activity, impacting revenue. 3) Competitive risk: Larger banks and fintechs could erode market share. 4) Regulatory risk: Changes in financial regulations could increase costs. The most severe risk is a market downturn, which could push the stock down 35% to the 52-week low of $67.81.
The 12-month forecast is a base case with a 50% probability of the stock trading between $85 and $95, aligning with the average analyst target of $89. The bull case (25% probability) could see the stock reach $95-$103 if growth accelerates, while the bear case (25% probability) could see it fall to $68-$81 if market conditions deteriorate. The most likely scenario is continued steady growth, with the stock appreciating modestly.
SF appears undervalued based on its trailing PE of 13.3x, which is below the industry average of 15x and the lower end of its 5-year range of 5x-37x. The forward PE of 11.1x implies the market expects earnings growth of about 20%, which is supported by recent performance. The PS ratio of 1.36x and PB ratio of 1.44x are also reasonable. Overall, the valuation suggests the market is pricing in modest growth, but the company's strong recent results may warrant a higher multiple.
SF offers a compelling risk/reward with a 9.5% upside to the average analyst target of $89 and a 26.7% upside to the high target of $103. The stock trades at a discount to its industry (PE 13.3x vs. 15x) and its own historical average, providing a margin of safety. However, the Hold consensus and market underperformance suggest limited near-term catalysts. It could be a good buy for value investors with a 12-month horizon, but growth investors may find better opportunities elsewhere.
SF is more suitable for long-term investment due to its stable business model, dividend yield of 2.8%, and moderate growth. The stock's beta of 0.99 indicates it moves with the market, so short-term trading would be subject to market volatility. With a payout ratio of 35.6%, the dividend is sustainable, and the company's strong cash flow supports long-term value creation. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out market cycles and benefit from earnings growth.