Stifel
SF
$79.88
-3.43%
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial-services provider offering wealth management, investment banking, and lending services. Founded in 1890 and transformed through acquisitions under CEO Ronald Kruszewski, it has become a globally competitive wealth manager and institutional brokerage. The company generated $5.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with roughly two-thirds from wealth management and one-third from trading and investment banking. Investor attention is focused on its consistent revenue growth, margin expansion, and the impact of interest rate changes on its lending and investment banking segments.…
SF
Stifel
$79.88
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SF Today?
Rating: Hold. Stifel Financial is a well-run firm with accelerating revenue and expanding margins, but its recent price underperformance and mixed analyst sentiment suggest limited near-term upside. The consensus is Buy with an average target of $87.75 (8.6% upside), but the stock needs to demonstrate sustained earnings growth to close the gap.
Supporting evidence: Revenue grew 14.7% YoY in Q1 2026, operating margin expanded to 32.6% from 4.4%, and forward P/E of 11.1x is below the trailing 13.3x, implying expected earnings growth. The P/B of 1.44x is below the sector average of 1.5-2.0x, suggesting a slight discount. Free cash flow TTM is $831M, supporting a 2.8% dividend yield. However, the 1-year return of 9.2% lags the S&P 500's 16.5%, and the 6-month change is -5.5%.
Risks & Conditions: The Hold rating could upgrade to Buy if the stock breaks above $89.83 (52-week high) or if forward P/E compresses below 10x. A downgrade to Sell would be warranted if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if net margin falls below 10%. The biggest risks are negative quarterly FCF and interest rate sensitivity. Overall, SF appears fairly valued relative to its history and peers, with moderate upside potential.
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SF 12-Month Price Forecast
Stifel's fundamentals are strong with accelerating revenue and expanding margins, but the stock's price action has been weak, underperforming the market over the past year. The valuation is reasonable, but the market is not yet rewarding the improving trends. The neutral stance reflects the tension between solid operating performance and lukewarm investor sentiment. A catalyst such as a strong earnings beat or a breakout above $89.83 could shift the stance to bullish, while a miss or macro shock could turn it bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Stifel's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $89.00 and implied upside of +11.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$89.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $103
Analyst target range
Eight analysts cover Stifel, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean 2.375 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $87.75, implying approximately 8.6% upside from the current price of $80.82. The distribution includes 4 buys, 3 holds, and 1 sell, leaning bullish. The target range spans from $75.00 (low) to $103.00 (high). The high target of $103 assumes continued revenue growth and margin expansion, potentially driven by a strong investment banking cycle. The low target of $75 suggests risks from a slowdown in capital markets or higher expenses. Recent ratings show UBS maintaining a Buy, while TD Cowen downgraded from Buy to Hold in January 2026, indicating some caution. The spread between low and high ($28) is moderate, reflecting reasonable uncertainty. Overall, the consensus is positive but not overly aggressive, with a clear upside bias.
Bulls vs Bears: SF Investment Factors
Stifel Financial presents a mixed picture: strong revenue acceleration and margin expansion are offset by recent underperformance and mixed analyst sentiment. The bull case is supported by accelerating growth (14.7% YoY revenue), expanding margins (operating margin 32.6%), and a reasonable forward P/E of 11.1x. The bear case highlights relative weakness (1-year return 9.2% vs. S&P 500 16.5%), negative quarterly FCF, and interest rate sensitivity. The key tension is whether the recent revenue momentum can sustain and translate into continued earnings beats, which would validate the valuation and drive the stock toward the $103 high target. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the strong fundamental trends, but the stock's lagging price action warrants caution.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.7% YoY to $1.666B, accelerating sharply from 1.5% growth in Q1 2025. This momentum is driven by wealth management and investment banking, signaling a robust cyclical upswing.
- Expanding Profit Margins: Operating margin surged to 32.6% in Q1 2026 from 4.4% a year ago, while net margin improved to 15.1% from 3.6%. This demonstrates strong operating leverage as revenue scales.
- Attractive Valuation with Upside: Forward P/E of 11.1x is below the trailing P/E of 13.3x, implying expected earnings growth. The average analyst target of $87.75 offers 8.6% upside, with a high target of $103 suggesting 27.4% potential.
- Healthy Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is low at 0.36 and current ratio is 5.24, indicating strong liquidity. Free cash flow TTM is $831M, supporting a 2.8% dividend yield with a 35.6% payout ratio.
Bearish
- Underperformance vs. S&P 500: SF's 1-year return of +9.2% lags the S&P 500's +16.5%, and the 6-month change is -5.5% vs. +7.2% for the index. This suggests persistent relative weakness despite recent momentum.
- Negative Free Cash Flow in Q1: Q1 2026 free cash flow was -$390M due to working capital changes, raising concerns about cash flow volatility. While TTM FCF is positive, quarterly swings could pressure dividends or buybacks.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Consensus is Buy but includes 3 holds and 1 sell. TD Cowen downgraded from Buy to Hold in January 2026, indicating caution. The low target of $75 implies 7.2% downside from current levels.
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Net interest income is exposed to rate changes; Q1 2026 interest expense was $187M. A declining rate environment could compress lending margins, while elevated rates may slow investment banking.
SF Technical Analysis
The stock is in a recovery phase from a downtrend, with a 1-year price change of +9.2%, underperforming the S&P 500's +16.5%. Currently at $80.82, it trades at 90% of its 52-week range ($67.81-$89.83), suggesting it has rebounded from lows but remains below the high. This positioning indicates a potential value opportunity if the recovery continues, but also reflects lingering bearish sentiment after a 23.5% maximum drawdown over the period. Short-term momentum is strong: the 1-month change is +10.9% versus the S&P 500's +0.8%, while the 3-month change is +4.7% versus the S&P 500's +3.5%. This acceleration in relative strength (1-month relative strength of +10.1%) suggests a bullish reversal, diverging from the 6-month decline of -5.5%. The RSI is not provided, but the volume of 1.23 million shares is near average, supporting the momentum. The 52-week low of $67.81 provides key support, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $89.83. A breakout above $89.83 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $67.81 could indicate further downside. Beta of 1.01 implies volatility roughly in line with the market, so the stock is not particularly risky on a relative basis.
Beta
0.99
0.99x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$68-$90
Price range past year
Annual Return
+8.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.9% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +10.0% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -0.1% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +8.0% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -6.6% | +11.8% |
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SF Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.666 billion was up 14.7% year-over-year, accelerating from the 1.5% growth in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $6.5 billion, with wealth management (asset management fees of $459 million and commissions of $208 million) and investment banking ($341 million) as key drivers. The growth trajectory is positive, supported by higher asset values and deal activity, strengthening the investment case for continued expansion. Profitability is solid: net income for Q1 2026 was $251 million, with a net margin of 15.1%, up from 3.6% in Q1 2025. Gross margin is high at 82.8%, typical for financial services, and operating margin improved to 32.6% from 4.4% a year ago, reflecting operating leverage. The company is clearly profitable and margins are expanding, indicating efficient cost management and revenue scaling. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is low at 0.36, and the current ratio is 5.24, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $831 million, though Q1 2026 showed negative free cash flow of -$390 million due to working capital changes. ROE is 11.4%, decent for the sector. The company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and dividends (yield 2.8%), with a payout ratio of 35.6%, suggesting financial stability.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
82.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$830694000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SF Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 13.3x, while the forward P/E is 11.1x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a positive growth outlook, with earnings expected to increase. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically for investment banks around 12-15x), Stifel's trailing P/E of 13.3x appears in line. The P/B ratio of 1.44x is below the sector average of around 1.5-2.0x, suggesting a slight discount. The P/S ratio of 1.36x is reasonable for a financial services firm. The valuation seems fair, with the forward P/E discounting growth. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from about 5x to 37x over the past few years. The current 13.3x is near the lower end of this range, indicating the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history. This suggests the market is pricing in moderate expectations, and there could be upside if earnings continue to grow.
PE
13.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Stifel's debt-to-equity is low at 0.36, but the negative free cash flow of -$390M in Q1 2026 highlights working capital volatility. Net margin improved to 15.1%, but reliance on wealth management (two-thirds of revenue) creates concentration risk if asset values decline. The payout ratio of 35.6% is manageable, but a sustained FCF shortfall could force dividend cuts. Revenue growth accelerated to 14.7%, but the prior year's 1.5% growth shows vulnerability to market cycles.
Market & Competitive Risks: With a beta of 1.01, SF moves in line with the market, offering no downside protection. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 13.3x, near the lower end of its historical range (5x-37x), but a recession could compress multiples further. The investment banking segment faces competition from larger players like Goldman Sachs, and a slowdown in M&A or underwriting could pressure fees. The recent TD Cowen downgrade to Hold reflects concerns about near-term earnings momentum.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe recession could slash wealth management fees and investment banking revenue, causing earnings to fall. If the stock revisits its 52-week low of $67.81, that represents a 16.1% decline from the current price of $80.82. In a prolonged downturn, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $75 (7.2% downside) or below, with a realistic worst-case loss of 20-25% based on historical max drawdown of 23.5%.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial: Negative free cash flow in Q1 2026 (-$390M) could pressure dividends if it persists. 2) Competitive: Investment banking faces competition from larger players, and a slowdown in M&A could hurt revenue. 3) Macro: Interest rate changes impact lending margins; beta of 1.01 means no downside protection in a market downturn. 4) Company-specific: Revenue concentration in wealth management (two-thirds) makes it sensitive to asset values. The most severe risk is a recession driving the stock to the 52-week low of $67.81, a 16.1% decline.
The 12-month forecast is mixed: the base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading near $87.75 (analyst average target), driven by steady revenue growth of 10-12%. The bull case (25% probability) targets $90-$103, fueled by a strong capital markets cycle and margin expansion. The bear case (25% probability) sees the stock falling to $68-$75, if a recession hits. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming the economy avoids a downturn and the company executes on its growth strategy.
SF appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued. The trailing P/E of 13.3x is near the lower end of its historical range (5x-37x) and in line with the industry average of 12-15x. The forward P/E of 11.1x suggests the market expects earnings growth. The P/B of 1.44x is below the sector average of 1.5-2.0x, indicating a discount. The P/S of 1.36x is reasonable for a financial services firm. Overall, the valuation implies moderate expectations, and if earnings continue to grow, the stock could re-rate higher.
SF offers a balanced risk/reward with 8.6% upside to the average analyst target of $87.75, supported by accelerating revenue growth (14.7% YoY) and expanding margins (operating margin 32.6%). The forward P/E of 11.1x is below the trailing 13.3x, implying expected earnings growth. However, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year (+9.2% vs. +16.5%) and faces risks from negative quarterly free cash flow and interest rate sensitivity. It is a good buy for investors with a moderate risk tolerance and a 12-month horizon, but those seeking market-beating returns may find better opportunities elsewhere.
SF is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its cyclical nature and moderate growth profile. The stock has a beta of 1.01, meaning it moves with the market, and a dividend yield of 2.8% provides income. Short-term trading is possible given recent momentum (1-month +10.9%), but the 6-month decline of -5.5% shows volatility. For long-term investors, the reasonable valuation, expanding margins, and dividend support a buy-and-hold approach. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out market cycles.