SMR

NuScale

$8.42

-2.09%
Jul 31, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
NuScale Power Corporation is pioneering small modular reactor (SMR) technology to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free nuclear power through its proprietary NuScale Power Module (NPM). As a first-mover in the SMR space, the company aims to disrupt traditional nuclear power with passive safety features and modular design, but faces intense competition from other advanced nuclear startups. The current investor narrative is dominated by commercialization delays, mounting losses, and NuScale's exclusion from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which has fueled debate about its competitive viability and path to revenue generation.

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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $8.42
Average Target $8.42
High Target $9.68
Low Target $7.16

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $14.57 and implied upside of +73.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$14.57

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+73.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$6 - $25

Analyst target range

NuScale is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean rating 2.56 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The distribution includes 2 buys, 10 holds, and 3 sells, reflecting a cautious stance. The average target price is $14.57, implying 80.1% upside from the current price of $8.09, though this upside is contingent on successful commercialization. The target range spans from a low of $6.00 to a high of $25.00, indicating significant uncertainty. The high target of $25.00 assumes multiple expansion and successful project deployments, while the low target of $6.00 prices in continued delays and potential failure. Recent ratings show no upgrades or downgrades in the past three months, with firms like Citigroup maintaining a sell rating and B. Riley reiterating a buy. The wide spread between low and high targets (19-point range) reflects high uncertainty, typical for pre-revenue companies. The hold consensus suggests analysts see limited near-term catalysts but acknowledge long-term optionality.

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SMR Technical Analysis

NuScale is in a deep, sustained downtrend, with the stock price falling 84.1% over the past year and currently trading at $8.09, just 14.1% above its 52-week low of $7.21. The price sits near the bottom of its 52-week range (7.21–57.42), indicating persistent selling pressure and a lack of buyer conviction. This positioning near the low suggests the stock is deeply out of favor, but also raises the risk of further downside if support fails. Short-term momentum remains decisively negative, with the stock down 20.8% over the past month and 32.4% over the past three months. The 1-month decline of 20.8% is accelerating relative to the 3-month decline, signaling intensifying bearish sentiment. The stock's beta of 2.252 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the S&P 500, amplifying both downside risk and potential upside in a reversal. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $7.21; a breakdown below this level could trigger further selling toward single-digit lows. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $57.42, though near-term resistance is likely around $10–$12, where the stock traded in early July. The high beta and extreme volatility make this a high-risk position requiring strict risk management.

Beta

2.25

2.25x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-85.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$7-$57

Price range past year

Annual Return

-83.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSMR ReturnS&P 500
1m-17.0%+0.2%
3m-30.6%+3.7%
6m-51.8%+8.0%
1y-83.2%+18.2%
ytd-48.4%+9.6%

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SMR Fundamental Analysis

NuScale's revenue trajectory is severely declining, with Q1 2026 revenue of just $565,000, down 95.8% year-over-year from $13.4 million in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows a collapse from $34.2 million in Q4 2024 to near-zero levels, reflecting failed commercialization and project cancellations. The company is pre-revenue in a commercial sense, with no meaningful product sales, making the investment case entirely dependent on future regulatory approvals and customer adoption. The company is deeply unprofitable, reporting a net loss of $44.0 million in Q1 2026, with a gross margin of -43.2% (negative gross profit of $244,000). Operating margin worsened to -101.8%, indicating that operating expenses far exceed revenue. While net losses have narrowed from $273.3 million in Q3 2025 (which included a large impairment), the trajectory toward profitability remains distant, with negative net margins of -77.9% in Q1 2026. NuScale has zero debt (debt-to-equity ratio of 0) and a current ratio of 4.3, indicating ample short-term liquidity. However, free cash flow was -$316.2 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow was -$753.5 million, highlighting heavy cash burn. The company relies on equity financing (common stock issued $37.8 million in Q1 2026) to fund operations, and with a negative ROE of -30.4%, it is destroying shareholder value. Cash at end of Q1 2026 was $346.2 million, providing a runway of roughly one year at the current burn rate.

Quarterly Revenue

$565000.0B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

-95.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-43.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-753464999.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other

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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?

Since NuScale has negative net income and negative EBITDA, the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 73.7x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $1.46 billion) is approximately 3.5x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The enormous gap between trailing and forward PS reflects extreme optimism about future commercialization, but also highlights the risk if revenue fails to materialize. Compared to the renewable utilities industry average PS ratio (which is typically below 5x), NuScale's trailing PS of 73.7x is astronomically high, representing a premium of over 1,300%. However, the forward PS of 3.5x is more in line with industry norms, suggesting the market is pricing in a dramatic revenue ramp. This premium is not justified by current profitability but may be supported by the potential of SMR technology if successful. Historically, NuScale's PS ratio has ranged from 48.9x (Q4 2024) to over 3,141x (Q1 2026), with the current 73.7x near the lower end of its historical range. The stock's PB ratio of 1.98x is also near historical lows (range 1.5x to 29.6x), suggesting the market is pricing in significant asset impairment or dilution. The low PB relative to history indicates that the stock is trading at a discount to its book value, which could be seen as a value trap given the negative earnings and cash burn.

PE

-6.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

N/A

5-Year PE Range 17x~59x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-6.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple