NuScale
SMR
$8.61
-15.67%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs), offering a proprietary light-water reactor technology that aims to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free nuclear power. As the first SMR technology to receive U.S. regulatory approval, NuScale holds a first-mover advantage in a nascent but rapidly evolving market, positioning itself as a potential leader in the next generation of nuclear energy. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to commercialize its technology amid growing demand from data centers and Big Tech for clean, reliable power, but it is also shadowed by significant cash burn, commercialization delays, and intense competition from other advanced nuclear startups. Recent news highlights both optimism around multi-decade SMR deals and concerns over NuScale's exclusion from key government initiatives, underscoring the high-risk, high-reward nature of this speculative growth story.…
SMR
NuScale
$8.61
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Based on the analysis, the recommendation is a Hold. The consensus rating is 'hold' with an average price target of $12.63, implying a 30% upside, but the high risk and lack of revenue justify caution. The thesis is that NuScale has potential but is not yet investable for most portfolios given its pre-revenue stage and cash burn.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bearish with medium confidence. The fundamental picture is deteriorating, with revenue collapsing and cash burn accelerating. The stock's technical trend is down, and the company faces competitive and political headwinds. However, the potential for a major contract win or a shift in government policy could quickly change the outlook. I would upgrade to neutral if NuScale announces a binding agreement or shows a quarter with revenue growth, and to bullish if it secures a multi-billion-dollar contract.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.63 and implied upside of +46.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+46.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
NuScale Power is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean rating of 2.56 on a scale where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell. The average price target is $12.63, implying an upside of approximately 30.2% from the current price of $9.70. The distribution of ratings includes a mix of buy, hold, and sell, with recent actions from firms like Citigroup maintaining a sell rating, while others like B. Riley and Canaccord Genuity remain bullish. This mixed sentiment reflects the high uncertainty surrounding the company's commercial prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale Power presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative investment. On the bull side, the company holds a first-mover regulatory advantage, has a clean balance sheet, and operates in a market with growing demand from data centers. However, the bear case is compelling: revenue is collapsing, cash burn is severe, the stock has lost 73% of its value, and the company was excluded from a key government initiative. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, as the company has yet to demonstrate a viable path to commercialization. The most important tension is whether NuScale can convert its pipeline of non-binding agreements into firm, revenue-generating contracts—if it can, the stock could recover significantly; if not, further downside is likely.
Bullish
- First-mover regulatory approval: NuScale's SMR design is the first to receive U.S. regulatory approval, providing a significant head start in the emerging SMR market. This approval de-risks the technology pathway and positions NuScale to capture early orders from utilities and data centers seeking carbon-free power.
- Strong balance sheet with no debt: NuScale has zero debt (debt-to-equity ratio of 0) and a current ratio of 4.30, indicating ample liquidity to fund operations. This financial flexibility reduces bankruptcy risk and allows the company to invest in commercialization without the burden of interest payments.
- Massive forward revenue expectations: Analysts project revenue of $1.49 billion for the next fiscal year, implying a forward PS ratio of only 3.47 versus the trailing PS of 73.70. If NuScale can execute on its pipeline, the stock could see substantial upside as revenue materializes.
- Growing demand from Big Tech: Recent news highlights multi-decade SMR deals with Big Tech companies, signaling strong potential demand for NuScale's technology. Data centers' need for reliable, clean power could drive long-term contracts and revenue growth.
Bearish
- Revenue collapsing 95.8% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue was just $0.565 million, down 95.78% from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. This dramatic decline reflects the absence of major contract milestones and highlights the company's inability to generate stable revenue.
- Severe cash burn and negative margins: Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was -$753.5 million, and the operating margin was -21.9% (though this is distorted by one-time charges). The company is burning through cash at an unsustainable rate, with net losses of $44 million in Q1 2026 alone.
- Stock down 73% in one year: The stock has fallen 73.08% over the past year, from a 52-week high of $57.42 to $9.70. This severe decline reflects waning investor confidence and a de-rating from peak speculative valuations.
- Excluded from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably absent from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which selected X-Energy, Oklo, and Standard Nuclear. This exclusion signals fading government support and could disadvantage NuScale in securing federal contracts.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale Power's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -73.08%, reflecting a severe loss of investor confidence. The current price of $9.70 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 16.9% of the range (calculated from the low of $7.21 and high of $57.42), indicating that the stock is trading close to its lows. This positioning suggests that the market is pricing in significant pessimism, and the stock could be seen as a falling knife or a potential value opportunity, depending on one's view of the company's long-term prospects. The stock's beta of 2.309 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, amplifying both downside and upside risks for investors.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-75.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.2% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -12.9% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -27.0% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -75.5% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -47.2% | +12.1% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and currently contracting sharply. In Q1 2026, revenue was a mere $0.565 million, down 95.78% year-over-year from $13.375 million in Q1 2025, reflecting the absence of major contract milestones. Over the past year, quarterly revenue has swung from $34.224 million in Q4 2024 to $8.242 million in Q3 2025, then to $1.808 million in Q4 2025, and finally to $0.565 million in Q1 2026, indicating a lack of stable revenue streams. The company remains in its pre-commercialization phase, with revenue primarily derived from engineering services and grants, and the investment case hinges on future SMR deployments rather than current sales.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given NuScale's negative net income and EBITDA, the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio, as earnings-based multiples are meaningless. The current PS ratio is 73.70, which is extremely elevated, reflecting the market's high expectations for future revenue growth despite minimal current sales. The forward PS ratio, based on estimated revenue of $1.487 billion for the next fiscal year, would be approximately 3.47, implying that the market expects a massive revenue ramp-up. This gap between trailing and forward PS ratios suggests that investors are pricing in a dramatic transformation of the company's revenue base, which is highly speculative given the current stage of development.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are paramount. NuScale's revenue is minuscule and declining, with Q1 2026 revenue of $0.565 million, down 95.8% YoY. The company's free cash flow is deeply negative at -$753.5 million TTM, and it posted a net loss of $44 million in Q1 2026. While the company has no debt and a current ratio of 4.30, its cash burn rate of roughly $150 million per quarter (based on TTM FCF) implies it may need to raise capital within the next few years, potentially diluting shareholders. The negative gross margin of -43.2% in Q1 2026 indicates that even its limited revenue is unprofitable, and the company relies on external funding to sustain operations.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: severe cash burn of -$753.5M TTM and negative gross margin, which could lead to dilution or bankruptcy if funding runs out. 2) Competitive risk: rivals like X-Energy and Oklo are gaining government support, while NuScale was excluded from Project Prometheus. 3) Macro risk: high beta of 2.309 means the stock is sensitive to market swings. 4) Execution risk: commercialization delays and lack of firm contracts could derail the investment thesis. The most severe risk is the company's inability to secure revenue-generating deals, which could push the stock to the $6 analyst low.
The 12-month forecast is uncertain, with a base case probability of 50% for a price range of $9-$13, aligning with the analyst average target of $12.63. The bull case (25% probability) targets $15-$20 if NuScale secures major contracts, while the bear case (25% probability) targets $6-$8 if delays and competition intensify. The most likely scenario is a continued struggle with minimal revenue, keeping the stock range-bound. Investors should watch for contract announcements and regulatory developments.
NuScale is extremely overvalued on a trailing basis, with a PS ratio of 73.70, but appears more reasonably valued on a forward basis, with a PS of 3.47 based on estimated revenue of $1.49 billion. This wide gap implies the market is pricing in a massive revenue ramp that may not materialize. Compared to peers, NuScale trades at a premium due to its first-mover status, but the lack of earnings makes traditional valuation metrics unreliable. The stock is likely overvalued given the high uncertainty and competition.
NuScale Power (SMR) is not a good buy for most investors due to its high risk and lack of revenue. The stock has a consensus 'hold' rating with an average target of $12.63, implying 30% upside, but the downside risk is significant, with the 52-week low at $7.21. The company is burning cash and has no clear path to profitability. It could be a good buy for speculative investors who believe in the long-term potential of SMRs and are willing to accept the possibility of losing most of their investment. However, for conservative investors, it is best avoided.
NuScale is more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance, as the SMR industry is still nascent and commercialization will take years. The stock's high beta (2.309) and extreme volatility make it unsuitable for short-term trading unless one is an expert in timing speculative momentum. A minimum holding period of 5-10 years is recommended to allow the company to potentially secure contracts and generate revenue. Short-term investors face significant risk of loss due to the stock's downtrend and negative news flow.