NuScale
SMR
$9.82
+3.70%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), offering its proprietary NuScale Power Module (NPM) technology that aims to deliver safe, scalable, and carbon-free power. As the first SMR design to receive U.S. regulatory approval, NuScale holds a distinct first-mover advantage in the emerging SMR market, positioning itself as a potential leader in the next generation of nuclear energy. However, the company is currently at a critical juncture, facing significant commercialization delays, mounting losses, and intense competition from rivals like X-Energy and Oklo, which have recently been favored in government initiatives such as Project Prometheus. The investor narrative is dominated by concerns over the company's cash burn, lack of meaningful revenue, and the widening gap between its ambitious vision and tangible execution, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price over the past year.…
SMR
NuScale
$9.82
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Rating: Sell. NuScale is a high-risk speculative stock with a deteriorating financial profile and no clear path to revenue. The analyst consensus is 'Hold' with an average target price of $14.57, but this target is based on optimistic assumptions that have not materialized. The stock's 73.7x price-to-sales ratio, combined with a 95.8% revenue decline, makes it fundamentally overvalued, and the exclusion from Project Prometheus highlights competitive disadvantages.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bearish with high confidence, as the fundamental data overwhelmingly points to a deteriorating business with no near-term revenue prospects. The extreme valuation, combined with a collapsing revenue base and competitive setbacks, suggests the stock is likely to continue its downtrend. The only factor that could upgrade the stance is a major binding contract or a significant change in government support, but these are uncertain and not currently reflected in the data.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $13.37 and implied upside of +36.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$13.37
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+36.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
The target price range is wide, from a low of $6.00 to a high of $25.00, reflecting high uncertainty about the company's future. The low target of $6.00 implies a further downside of 28.7%, likely pricing in continued cash burn and potential dilution, while the high target of $25.00 suggests a potential upside of 196.9%, assuming successful commercialization and market adoption. The wide spread indicates that analysts have divergent views on the company's ability to execute, with some seeing it as a high-risk speculative play and others believing in its long-term potential. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of actions, with no clear upgrade or downgrade trend, but the presence of Sell ratings from Citigroup and a neutral stance from Goldman Sachs and UBS suggests that institutional sentiment is cautious, and the stock remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative investment. The bull case rests on its first-mover regulatory advantage and the massive potential of the SMR market, while the bear case is dominated by a collapsing revenue base, extreme valuation, and exclusion from key government initiatives. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, as the company's financials and market position have deteriorated significantly, and the stock's price action reflects deep pessimism. The single most important tension is whether NuScale can convert its regulatory head start into binding commercial contracts before its cash reserves run out—if it does, the stock could re-rate dramatically; if not, further downside is likely.
Bullish
- First-Mover Regulatory Advantage: NuScale's NPM design is the first SMR to receive U.S. regulatory approval, providing a unique head start in a nascent market. This first-mover status could translate into early contracts and a competitive moat as the industry scales.
- Massive Market Opportunity: The global push for carbon-free power and data center energy demand creates a multi-billion-dollar opportunity for SMRs. NuScale's 6-GW deployment program, though non-binding, signals potential large-scale adoption that could drive exponential revenue growth.
- Strong Balance Sheet with No Debt: NuScale has zero debt (debt-to-equity ratio of 0) and a current ratio of 4.3, indicating ample liquidity to fund operations. This financial flexibility reduces bankruptcy risk and allows continued investment in R&D.
- Analyst Upside Potential: The average analyst target price of $14.57 implies a 73% upside from the current price of $8.42, with a high target of $25.00 suggesting a 197% gain. This reflects some analysts' belief in the company's long-term potential despite near-term challenges.
Bearish
- Revenue Collapse and Pre-Revenue Status: Q1 2026 revenue was just $565,000, a 95.8% year-over-year decline, and the company remains in a pre-revenue phase with no clear path to meaningful sales. This severe revenue deterioration undermines the investment case.
- Extreme Valuation at 73.7x Sales: With a price-to-sales ratio of 73.7x, the stock is priced for massive future growth that has not materialized. This valuation is unjustifiable on a fundamental basis and leaves no room for error.
- Exclusion from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably excluded from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which favored rivals X-Energy, Oklo, and Standard Nuclear. This signals fading government support and a competitive disadvantage in securing key contracts.
- Severe Cash Burn and Dilution Risk: Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was -$753 million, and the company burned $44 million in Q1 2026 alone. With no revenue, continued cash burn will likely force dilutive equity raises, pressuring the stock.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with the price having fallen 83.23% over the past year, from a 52-week high of $57.42 to a current price of $8.42. The stock is trading at just 14.7% of its 52-week range, near the low of $7.21, indicating that it is deeply oversold and close to its lowest point. This positioning suggests that the market has priced in significant pessimism, but it also raises the risk of a falling knife, as the downtrend shows no signs of reversal yet. The stock's beta of 2.252 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the market, amplifying both downside and potential upside moves.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-78.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.1% | +3.7% |
| 3m | -21.8% | +4.8% |
| 6m | -44.0% | +12.0% |
| 1y | -78.0% | +22.3% |
| ytd | -39.8% | +13.4% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is severely deteriorating, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of just $565,000, a 95.78% decline year-over-year, and down from $1.808 million in Q4 2025. The company's quarterly revenue has been highly erratic, with peaks in Q4 2024 ($34.2 million) and Q1 2025 ($13.4 million) followed by sharp drops, reflecting the lumpy nature of its early-stage contracts and the lack of a stable revenue base. This trend underscores the company's failure to commercialize its SMR technology, as it remains in the pre-revenue phase with no clear path to meaningful sales. The investment case is severely challenged by this lack of revenue growth, as the company's future depends entirely on securing large-scale contracts that have yet to materialize.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given NuScale's negative net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as earnings-based metrics are meaningless. The current PS ratio stands at 73.7x, which is extremely elevated, reflecting the market's high expectations for future revenue growth despite the company's current lack of sales. This valuation is unjustifiable on a fundamental basis, as the company's revenue is minuscule and declining, and it implies that investors are pricing in a massive future revenue ramp that may never occur. The PS ratio has been highly volatile, ranging from 48.9x in Q4 2024 to over 3,000x in Q1 2026, indicating extreme speculative sentiment and a lack of fundamental anchoring.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, NuScale is burning cash at an unsustainable rate, with free cash flow of -$753 million over the trailing twelve months and a net loss of $44 million in Q1 2026. The company has no debt, but its cash reserves are finite, and with revenue of just $565,000 in the latest quarter, there is no near-term path to profitability. The negative gross margin of -43.2% in Q1 2026 indicates that even the minimal revenue generated is unprofitable, and the erratic revenue pattern—from $34.2 million in Q4 2024 to $565,000 in Q1 2026—highlights the lack of a stable business model. This financial fragility makes the company highly dependent on external funding, likely leading to shareholder dilution that will further depress the stock price.