NuScale
SMR
$9.40
+3.64%
NuScale Power Corporation is a pioneer in small modular reactor (SMR) technology, developing the NuScale Power Module (NPM), a 77 MWe light-water reactor designed to provide safe, scalable, and carbon-free power. As the first SMR company to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, NuScale holds a first-mover advantage in the emerging SMR market, but faces intense competition from rivals like X-Energy and Oklo. The current investor narrative centers on the company's potential to capitalize on growing data center electricity demand, yet is tempered by significant commercialization delays, mounting cash burn, and its exclusion from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus initiative, which has fueled skepticism about its near-term viability.…
SMR
NuScale
$9.40
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Rating: Hold. NuScale is a speculative pre-revenue company with a consensus 'hold' rating and an average analyst target of $12.90, implying 37.4% upside from the current price of $9.39. The thesis is that while the company has a first-mover advantage in SMR technology, the lack of revenue and severe cash burn make it too risky for most investors. The stock is only suitable for high-risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bearish due to the severe revenue contraction, massive cash burn, and competitive setbacks. The stock's extreme volatility (beta 2.31) and negative momentum suggest further downside risk. However, the potential for a binding 6-GW contract could quickly change the outlook, so the stance could be upgraded to neutral if such a deal is announced.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.63 and implied upside of +34.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+34.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $20
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from $6.00 (low) to $20.00 (high), representing a wide 233% spread that signals significant uncertainty about the company's future. The low target of $6.00 suggests a scenario where commercialization fails and cash burn leads to dilution or distress, while the high target of $20.00 assumes successful SMR deployments and revenue growth. Recent ratings actions show a mix: Citigroup maintains a Sell, while B. Riley and Canaccord Genuity reiterate Buy, reflecting divergent views on the stock's risk-reward profile.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
NuScale presents a classic high-risk, high-reward speculative opportunity. The bull case rests on first-mover regulatory approval, massive projected revenue growth, and a debt-free balance sheet, while the bear case is driven by collapsing revenue, severe cash burn, exclusion from key government programs, and an extreme valuation. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger, given the 95.8% revenue decline and the 73.9% stock price drop over the past year. The most critical tension is whether NuScale can convert its non-binding agreements into firm contracts that justify the forward revenue estimates—if it fails, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $6.00, but if it succeeds, it could reach the high target of $20.00.
Bullish
- First-Mover Regulatory Approval: NuScale is the first SMR company to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, providing a significant competitive moat. This regulatory milestone reduces technical risk and positions the company to capture early SMR orders, especially as data center electricity demand surges.
- Massive Revenue Growth Expected: Analysts project 2026 revenue of $1.39 billion, implying a forward PS ratio of only 3.7x versus the trailing PS of 73.7x. If even a fraction of the 6-GW SMR program materializes, revenue could explode from the current $565K quarterly run rate, driving substantial upside.
- Strong Liquidity Position: With a current ratio of 4.30 and zero debt, NuScale has ample short-term liquidity to fund operations through commercialization. The debt-free balance sheet reduces bankruptcy risk and provides a cushion against cash burn, which totaled -$753 million in free cash flow over the TTM.
- Data Center Demand Catalyst: The recent 12% stock surge on data center optimism highlights the market's belief that SMRs will power AI infrastructure. NuScale's 77 MWe modules are well-suited for distributed power needs, and the non-binding 6-GW program could become a binding contract, driving a re-rating.
Bearish
- Revenue Collapse in Q1 2026: Q1 2026 revenue plunged 95.8% YoY to just $565K, from $13.375M in Q1 2025. This erratic revenue stream underscores the lack of stable commercial contracts and highlights the pre-revenue stage, making the forward revenue estimates highly speculative.
- Severe Cash Burn and Dilution Risk: TTM free cash flow is -$753 million, and the company burned $44 million in Q1 2026 alone. With a market cap of $5.17 billion, continued losses will likely force equity dilution, as evidenced by share count growth from 93.25M in Q4 2024 to 163.7M in Q1 2026, a 75% increase.
- Exclusion from Project Prometheus: NuScale was notably excluded from the Trump administration's Project Prometheus, which favored rivals X-Energy, Oklo, and Standard Nuclear. This signals fading government support and a competitive disadvantage, as rivals gain regulatory and financial backing.
- Extreme Valuation Risk: The trailing PS ratio of 73.7x is unsustainable for a company with collapsing revenue. Even the forward PS of 3.7x assumes $1.39B revenue, which is highly uncertain. If revenue disappoints, the stock could re-rate sharply lower, as seen in the 73.9% 1-year decline.
SMR Technical Analysis
NuScale's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -73.87%, and currently trades at $9.39, just 16.4% above its 52-week low of $7.21 and 83.6% below its 52-week high of $57.42. This positioning near the bottom of its range suggests a falling knife scenario, where value investors may see opportunity but momentum traders remain cautious. The stock's beta of 2.306 indicates it is 130% more volatile than the S&P 500, amplifying both downside and upside moves.
Beta
2.31
2.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-85.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-71.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.3% | +2.5% |
| 3m | -17.5% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -30.1% | +11.1% |
| 1y | -71.9% | +20.5% |
| ytd | -42.4% | +12.3% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and currently contracting, with Q1 2026 revenue of $565,000, a -95.78% year-over-year decline from $13.375 million in Q1 2025. The company's quarterly revenue has swung from $34.224 million in Q4 2024 to just $565,000 in Q1 2026, reflecting the absence of stable commercial contracts. This revenue instability underscores the pre-revenue stage of the business, with growth dependent on future SMR deployments rather than current operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$565000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-95.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-43.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-753464999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given NuScale's negative net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as earnings-based multiples are meaningless. The trailing PS ratio is 73.70x, while the forward PS ratio is not directly provided, but based on estimated revenue of $1.39 billion for 2026, the forward PS would be approximately 3.7x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. This wide gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects optimism about future commercialization, but also highlights the extreme risk if revenue fails to materialize.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, NuScale faces severe cash burn with TTM free cash flow of -$753 million and a net loss of $44 million in Q1 2026. The company's revenue is highly erratic, swinging from $34.2 million in Q4 2024 to just $565K in Q1 2026, indicating a lack of stable commercial contracts. With a current ratio of 4.30 and zero debt, liquidity is adequate for now, but the rapid share count expansion (from 93.25M to 163.7M shares) signals dilution risk. The negative gross margin of -43.2% in Q1 2026 means the company loses money on each sale, worsening the cash burn and making the path to profitability distant.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: severe cash burn of -$753 million TTM and negative gross margins, leading to potential dilution. 2) Competitive risk: exclusion from Project Prometheus and faster regulatory approvals for rivals like X-Energy and Oklo. 3) Market risk: high beta of 2.31 means the stock is highly sensitive to market sentiment and macro conditions. 4) Company-specific risk: revenue is highly erratic, with Q1 2026 revenue down 95.8% YoY, indicating a lack of stable contracts. The most severe risk is a failure to secure binding contracts, which could drive the stock to the analyst low target of $6.00.
The 12-month forecast is uncertain, with three scenarios: bull case (25% probability) target $15-$20, base case (45% probability) target $10-$14, and bear case (30% probability) target $6-$8. The base case aligns with the analyst average target of $12.90, assuming modest progress without major contract wins. The most likely scenario is the base case, but the outcome hinges on whether NuScale can convert its non-binding 6-GW program into a firm contract. If it does, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, it could fall to the 52-week low.
SMR is extremely overvalued based on trailing metrics, with a PS ratio of 73.7x, but the forward PS of 3.7x suggests the market expects massive revenue growth. The wide gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects optimism about future commercialization, but also highlights the extreme risk if revenue fails to materialize. Compared to peers, the valuation is at a premium, but the first-mover advantage in SMR could justify it if the company executes. The market is pricing in a successful transition to a commercial nuclear provider, which is far from guaranteed.
SMR is a high-risk, high-reward speculative stock. The analyst consensus is 'hold' with an average target of $12.90, implying 37.4% upside from the current price of $9.39. However, the company faces severe cash burn and revenue collapse, with Q1 2026 revenue down 95.8% YoY. It could be a good buy for investors who believe in the long-term SMR story and can tolerate extreme volatility, but it is not suitable for conservative investors. The biggest downside risk is a fall to the 52-week low of $7.21, a 23% loss from current levels.
SMR is more suitable for long-term investment due to its high volatility and pre-revenue stage. The stock has a beta of 2.31, making it extremely volatile in the short term, and the company's revenue is unpredictable. Long-term investors with a horizon of 5+ years could benefit from the potential SMR market growth, but they must be prepared for significant drawdowns. Short-term trading is risky due to the stock's sensitivity to news and market sentiment, as seen in the 73.9% 1-year decline. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow for commercialization milestones.