AAP

Advance Auto Parts

$57.95

+5.36%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Advance Auto Parts is a leading North American auto-parts retailer operating over 4,000 stores and branches, serving both professional (about half of sales) and do-it-yourself customers. The company competes primarily on inventory availability and service speed, leveraging a hub-and-spoke distribution model to maintain a vast stock of parts for various vehicle makes. Currently, the stock is attracting attention due to a fundamental turnaround story, with improving sales trends, cost-saving initiatives, and a favorable industry backdrop, despite a recent dip in share price.

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AAP 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $57.95
Average Target $57.95
High Target $66.64
Low Target $49.26

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Advance Auto Parts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $75.34 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$75.34

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$46 - $75

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Only 4 analysts cover the stock, with a consensus recommendation leaning neutral (Hold/Equal Weight). The average EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $4.75, with a low of $4.68 and high of $4.82. The average revenue estimate is $9.508 billion. Based on the forward P/E of 14.45x and current price of $57.95, the implied upside to the average target is not directly calculable without explicit price targets, but the forward P/E suggests a target of around $68.60 (14.45x * $4.75). The consensus rating is mixed, with firms like BMO Capital, RBC Capital, and Truist Securities all maintaining Hold/Perform ratings. The lack of strong bullish or bearish conviction indicates uncertainty about the turnaround. The limited analyst coverage (4 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap stock undergoing restructuring, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. Investors should monitor earnings reports for signs of sustained improvement to gain more clarity.

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AAP Technical Analysis

The stock is in a recovery uptrend from its 52-week low of $37.89, with a 1-year price change of -2.77% but a strong 6-month gain of 32.19%. The current price of $57.95 sits at 82.8% of the 52-week range ($37.89–$70.00), indicating it has recovered significantly from the lows but remains below the high. This positioning suggests the stock is in a mid-cycle recovery phase, with room to run if momentum continues but also potential resistance near the high. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month decline of -2.38% and a 3-month gain of 6.16%, indicating a recent pullback within the broader uptrend. The 1-month negative change contrasts with the 6-month positive trend, suggesting a temporary consolidation or profit-taking after the strong run. The stock's beta of 1.053 implies slightly higher volatility than the market, meaning it may amplify market moves modestly. Key support is at the 52-week low of $37.89, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $70.00. A breakout above $70 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $37.89 would negate the recovery. The stock's beta of 1.053 indicates it is roughly as volatile as the S&P 500, so position sizing should consider market risk.

Beta

1.05

1.05x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-41.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$38-$70

Price range past year

Annual Return

-2.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAAP ReturnS&P 500
1m-2.4%+1.8%
3m+6.2%+10.0%
6m+32.2%+8.8%
1y-2.8%+21.1%
ytd+49.0%+10.7%

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AAP Fundamental Analysis

Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2025, ending Jan 3, 2026) was $1.973 billion, down 1.15% year-over-year, but this decline is an improvement from the prior year's Q4 revenue of $1.996 billion. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has been relatively stable around $2.0 billion per quarter, with a slight deceleration from $2.583 billion in Q1 FY2025. The revenue segments show parts and batteries as the largest contributor at $1.335 billion, followed by accessories and chemicals at $369 million, indicating the core business remains steady. The company is marginally profitable, with net income of $6 million in Q4 FY2025, compared to a net loss of $415 million in Q4 FY2024. Gross margin improved to 44.04% from 17.39% a year ago, reflecting better cost management and inventory optimization. However, operating margin remains thin at 3.45%, and net margin is only 0.30%, indicating the company is still in the early stages of profitability recovery. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.38, which is elevated, and free cash flow was negative $21 million in Q4 FY2025, though operating cash flow was positive $72 million. The current ratio of 1.75 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, but the high debt load and negative free cash flow suggest the company relies on external financing or cash reserves to fund operations. ROE is a low 2.0%, reflecting weak profitability relative to equity.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.0B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

-1.15%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

44.04%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-298000000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Accessories and chemicals
engine maintenance [Domain]
other products
parts and batteries

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Valuation Analysis: Is AAP Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($6 million), the trailing P/E ratio is the primary valuation metric at 53.27x, while the forward P/E is 14.45x. The large gap between trailing and forward P/E implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, which is consistent with the improving profitability trends. The P/S ratio of 0.27 is low, but given the thin margins, P/E is more appropriate. Compared to the specialty retail industry, the forward P/E of 14.45x is below the industry average of approximately 18x (based on typical sector multiples), suggesting a discount. However, the trailing P/E of 53.27x is a premium due to depressed earnings. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from negative to over 100x in recent years; the current 53.27x is elevated relative to the 2022-2023 period when P/E was around 20x, indicating the market is pricing in a turnaround. The P/B ratio of 1.06 is near the lower end of its historical range (1.0–4.8 over the past five years), suggesting the stock is trading close to book value, which could imply undervaluation if the turnaround materializes.

PE

53.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -920x~97x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

13.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple