CME

CME Group

$274.98

+1.52%
Aug 21, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
CME Group Inc. operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, offering futures and options contracts across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, metals, and agricultural commodities, alongside market data and clearing services. As the dominant exchange operator in the U.S. and a global benchmark for risk management, CME holds a near-monopoly position in listed derivatives trading, with a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indices reinforcing its strategic moat. The current investor narrative centers on how persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve—with rising odds of rate hikes—are driving record trading volumes and revenue growth, while the stock's recent recovery from a mid-2026 selloff reflects optimism about sustained demand for hedging products amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

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CME 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $274.98
Average Target $274.98
High Target $316.23
Low Target $233.73

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CME Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $283.07 and implied upside of +2.9% versus the current price.

Average Target

$283.07

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+2.9%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$230 - $330

Analyst target range

CME is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean rating of 2.56 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $283.07, implying a modest 2.9% upside from the current price of $274.98. The distribution includes 2 strong buys, 5 buys, 7 holds, and 1 underperform, indicating a cautious but not bearish stance. Recent actions show a mix of upgrades and reiterations, with firms like Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrading to Outperform and Rothschild & Co moving to Buy, suggesting some positive momentum in sentiment.

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CME Technical Analysis

CME's price trend over the past year has been characterized by a sharp correction followed by a recovery, with the stock currently trading at $274.98, up 0.61% from a year ago but down 10.75% from six months ago. The stock sits at 83.5% of its 52-week range (between $218.31 low and $329.16 high), indicating it has rebounded significantly from the June 2026 trough but remains below its February 2026 peak. This positioning suggests a recovery phase, though the stock has yet to reclaim prior highs, implying lingering caution among investors.

Beta

0.27

0.27x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-33.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$218-$329

Price range past year

Annual Return

+0.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCME ReturnS&P 500
1m+10.3%+3.6%
3m-5.6%+2.7%
6m-10.7%+11.4%
1y+0.6%+18.7%
ytd+2.0%+12.3%

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CME Fundamental Analysis

CME's revenue trajectory is robustly growing, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.88 billion, up 14.5% year-over-year, accelerating from the 7.5% growth seen in Q4 2025. The revenue breakdown shows clearing and transaction fees of $1.54 billion, market data revenue of $224 million, and other revenue of $113 million, indicating that trading volumes are the primary growth driver. This acceleration is likely fueled by heightened market volatility and rate-hike expectations, which boost derivatives trading activity, and the trend suggests continued momentum if macroeconomic uncertainty persists.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.9B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+14.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

88.1%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$4.3B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

MarketData
OtherRevenue
clearing and transaction fees

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Valuation Analysis: Is CME Overvalued?

Given CME's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 24.43x, while the forward PE is 21.27x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 15% over the next year. This gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects optimism about continued EPS expansion, driven by revenue growth and margin stability. The PEG ratio of 1.59x suggests the stock is reasonably priced relative to its growth rate, though not deeply undervalued.

PE

24.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 19x~30x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple