Fastenal
FAST
$46.12
+0.50%
Fastenal Co. is a leading industrial distributor specializing in maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, offering a wide range of products from fasteners and cutting tools to safety equipment and janitorial supplies. The company has evolved from a retailer into a critical outsourcing partner for industrial customers, distinguished by its dense branch network and a strategic focus on on-site vending machines and personnel installations. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience and execution within the industrial distribution sector, with recent attention likely focused on its ability to navigate economic cycles, expand its higher-margin on-site services, and deliver consistent profitability and cash returns to shareholders, as evidenced by its strong dividend payout and free cash flow generation.…
FAST
Fastenal
$46.12
Related headlines
FAST 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fastenal's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $59.96 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$59.96
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$37 - $60
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Fastenal is limited, with only 5 analysts providing estimates, which is low for a company of its market cap and suggests it may be under-followed by the broader sell-side community. The available data provides consensus EPS and revenue estimates but does not include a consensus price target or Buy/Hold/Sell distribution, making a definitive sentiment reading impossible. The estimated EPS range for the forward period is $1.49 to $1.59, with an average of $1.55, while the estimated revenue range is $11.06 billion to $11.63 billion, with an average of $11.41 billion. The lack of a published price target consensus and the minimal number of analysts indicate higher uncertainty and potentially less efficient price discovery, which can contribute to the stock's volatility despite its low beta. Recent institutional rating actions show a mixed but generally stable picture, with firms like Baird maintaining an Outperform rating and Barclays holding an Equal Weight, though a notable downgrade from Wolfe Research to Underperform in November 2025 introduces a bearish counterpoint.
FAST Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +10.61%, but it is currently trading well off its highs, positioned at approximately 72% of its 52-week range (current price ~$45.89 vs. 52-week high of $50.63 and low of $38.97). This positioning suggests the stock has experienced a meaningful pullback from its peak, potentially offering a value entry point after a period of consolidation rather than signaling immediate overextension. Recent short-term momentum shows signs of recovery, with a 1-month gain of +5.32% and a 3-month gain of +4.87%, which contrasts with the stock's significant underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over the past year (relative strength of -14.39). This divergence indicates the stock may be attempting to regain its footing after a period of lagging the broader market rally, though the 1-month relative strength of +4.58 suggests it is currently outperforming. Key technical levels are the 52-week high of $50.63 as primary resistance and the 52-week low of $38.97 as major support; a decisive breakout above resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below support could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.729 indicates it is approximately 27% less volatile than the broader market, which is characteristic of a mature industrial distributor and suggests lower systematic risk for portfolio construction.
Beta
0.73
0.73x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$51
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FAST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.0% | -0.2% |
| 3m | +2.7% | +14.0% |
| 6m | +10.3% | +7.8% |
| 1y | +12.7% | +25.3% |
| ytd | +14.0% | +9.2% |
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FAST Fundamental Analysis
Fastenal's revenue trajectory shows consistent growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.027 billion representing an 11.12% year-over-year increase, and sequential quarterly revenues in 2025 (Q1: $1.959B, Q2: $2.080B, Q3: $2.133B) demonstrating a generally upward trend. This multi-quarter pattern indicates the company is successfully growing its top line, though the Q4 sequential dip from Q3 suggests potential seasonality or moderation. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $294.1 million and a robust net margin of 14.51%, supported by a solid gross margin of 44.33%. Profitability metrics are strong and stable, with the gross margin for the last four reported quarters ranging between 45.11% and 45.32%, and the net margin for those quarters between 15.24% and 15.83%, demonstrating impressive operational consistency and pricing power within the industrial distribution space. The balance sheet is exceptionally healthy, featuring a strong current ratio of 4.85, a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.112, and a high return on equity of 31.91%. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.051 billion, providing ample internal funding for dividends (payout ratio of 79.8%), strategic investments, and share repurchases without reliance on external debt financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.44%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is FAST Overvalued?
Given Fastenal's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 36.60x and a forward PE of 33.48x, with the forward multiple being lower, indicating the market anticipates modest earnings growth. Compared to sector averages (data not available in the provided set for a direct industry comparison), the elevated PE suggests the market awards Fastenal a premium valuation, likely justified by its superior profitability metrics (net margin of 15.35%), high return on equity (31.91%), and its defensive, cash-generative business model within the industrials sector. Historically, Fastenal's own trailing PE has fluctuated significantly, with data points over recent years ranging from the mid-20s to above 40x; the current PE of 36.60x sits toward the higher end of this observed historical band. This positioning implies the stock is not cheap on an absolute historical basis and that the market is pricing in sustained execution and premium fundamentals, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointment.
PE
36.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 23x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

