Fastenal
FAST
$48.11
+0.84%
Fastenal Co is an industrial distributor that provides a wide range of maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, including fasteners, cutting tools, safety equipment, and janitorial products, primarily to business customers in the industrial sector. The company differentiates itself through a dense network of local branches and on-site locations, where it installs vending machines and places dedicated personnel at customer facilities, positioning it as a one-stop outsourcing partner for industrial supply needs. Currently, the investor narrative centers on Fastenal's growth trajectory, driven by its expansion of on-site locations and vending machine installations, which have become the primary focus for future growth. The stock has shown resilience with a 1-year price change of +3.43%, and recent quarterly results indicate a 14.74% YoY revenue growth, suggesting that the company is successfully capitalizing on its strategic initiatives despite a challenging industrial environment.…
FAST
Fastenal
$48.11
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FAST Today?
We rate FAST as a Hold. The consensus recommendation is Hold with an average target of $47.84, implying only 0.3% upside. The thesis is that Fastenal is a high-quality industrial distributor with strong growth and profitability, but the current valuation already reflects these strengths, leaving limited room for appreciation.
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FAST 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balance between strong fundamentals and rich valuation. The stock's growth and profitability are impressive, but the market has already priced in these strengths, leaving little room for error. The stance would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth accelerates above 15% and the stock pulls back to below $45, or if analyst targets are raised significantly. It would downgrade to bearish if growth falls below 10% or margins deteriorate, as the premium valuation would likely contract.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fastenal's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $47.84 and implied upside of -0.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$47.84
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-0.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $55
Analyst target range
Fastenal is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean recommendation score of 2.72 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $47.84, which is slightly above the current price of $47.71, implying a modest upside of 0.3%. The distribution of ratings includes 4 buys, 7 holds, and 2 sells, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. The low target of $39.90 represents a 16.4% downside from the current price, while the high target of $55.00 implies a 15.3% upside. The wide spread between the low and high targets (a 38% difference) suggests significant uncertainty among analysts regarding Fastenal's future performance. Recent ratings actions have been mostly neutral, with firms like Barclays and Morgan Stanley maintaining equal weight ratings, while Baird has reiterated an outperform rating, and Jefferies upgraded from hold to buy in December 2025, indicating a slight positive tilt in sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: FAST Investment Factors
Fastenal presents a mixed picture: strong operational execution with accelerating revenue growth and superior profitability, but a premium valuation that limits upside. The bull case is supported by robust fundamentals and a solid balance sheet, while the bear case hinges on valuation risk and modest analyst expectations. The most critical tension is whether the 14.74% revenue growth can sustain and justify the 36.5x PE, or if deceleration will trigger multiple compression. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the growth momentum and profitability, but the stock's rich valuation makes it vulnerable to any disappointment.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q2 2026 revenue grew 14.74% YoY to $2.387B, up from $2.080B in Q2 2025, with sequential increases from $2.027B in Q4 2025 to $2.202B in Q1 2026. This acceleration indicates strong execution of the on-site and vending machine strategy.
- Superior Profitability Metrics: Net margin is 15.35% versus the industry average of 10%, and ROE is 31.9% versus 15% for peers. This demonstrates efficient capital use and a durable competitive advantage in industrial distribution.
- Strong Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is only 0.11, and the current ratio is 4.85, indicating minimal leverage and ample liquidity. This financial stability supports continued investment in growth initiatives and resilience during downturns.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment Shift: Jefferies upgraded FAST to Buy in December 2025, and Baird reiterated Outperform, while the consensus remains Hold. This recent positive tilt suggests growing confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Bearish
- Rich Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing PE is 36.48x versus the industry average of 22x, a 66% premium. Even with superior margins, this valuation leaves little room for error and could compress if growth decelerates.
- Limited Analyst Upside: The average analyst target is $47.84, only 0.3% above the current price of $47.71. With 7 holds and 2 sells, the consensus is neutral, suggesting limited near-term upside expectations.
- High Payout Ratio: The payout ratio is 79.8%, indicating that most earnings are returned to shareholders via dividends. This limits retained capital for organic growth or acquisitions, potentially slowing expansion.
- Gross Margin Pressure: Gross margin declined from 45.32% in Q2 2025 to 44.56% in Q2 2026. While still healthy, this trend suggests potential pricing pressure or mix shifts that could erode profitability.
FAST Technical Analysis
Fastenal's stock is currently in a recovery phase, having rebounded from its 52-week low of $38.97 to a current price of $47.71, representing a 22.4% gain from the low. The stock is trading at 94.2% of its 52-week range (calculated as (47.71 - 38.97) / (50.63 - 38.97)), indicating it is near the upper end of its yearly range, which typically signals strong momentum and investor confidence. The 1-year price change of +3.43% is modest, but the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 3 months, with a 6.23% gain versus the SPY's 3.66%, suggesting a recent acceleration in buying interest.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$51
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FAST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.0% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +8.5% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -0.4% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +5.9% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +19.0% | +11.1% |
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FAST Fundamental Analysis
Fastenal's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $2.3869 billion, a 14.74% YoY increase from $2.0803 billion in Q2 2025. This growth is part of a multi-quarter trend, with sequential revenue increases from $2.0274 billion in Q4 2025 to $2.2017 billion in Q1 2026 and then to $2.3869 billion in Q2 2026, indicating accelerating growth. The company's gross margin for Q2 2026 was 44.56%, slightly down from 45.32% in Q2 2025, but still healthy, and the net income of $382.8 million represents a 15.9% net margin, up from 15.9% in the prior year quarter. The growth is likely driven by expansion in on-site locations and vending machine sales, which are core to Fastenal's strategy.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is FAST Overvalued?
Given Fastenal's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 36.48x, while the forward PE is 34.18x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 6.7% over the next year. This gap is relatively narrow, suggesting that the market's growth expectations are moderate and not overly optimistic. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (based on available data), Fastenal trades at a 66% premium, which is substantial. This premium is justified by Fastenal's superior profitability, with a net margin of 15.35% versus the industry average of 10%, and its strong return on equity of 31.9%, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 15%.
PE
36.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 23x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high payout ratio of 79.8%, which limits retained earnings for growth investments and could force dividend cuts if earnings decline. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.11, and the current ratio is 4.85, indicating strong liquidity and low financial distress risk. The company's net margin of 15.35% is healthy, but gross margin has slipped from 45.32% to 44.56% YoY, suggesting potential cost pressures or competitive pricing that could compress profitability further. Revenue concentration in the industrial sector exposes FAST to cyclical downturns, as seen in the 2024-2025 period when revenue growth was sluggish.