FactSet
FDS
$335.45
+4.86%
FactSet Research Systems is a financial data and analytics provider that aggregates third-party data, news, exchange feeds, and broker contributions into workstation and API-delivered products, supplemented by portfolio analytics, risk management, and trade execution software built through acquisitions such as Portware, BISAM, and CUSIP Global Services. The company occupies a sticky, subscription-based niche in the financial data and stock exchange industry, with buy-side and wealth clients accounting for over 80% of annual subscription value, positioning it as a mission-critical workflow vendor rather than a broad platform disruptor. The current investor debate centers on whether AI-driven product innovation and the recently reported 6.3% year-over-year revenue growth in the fiscal fourth quarter can offset visible margin pressure and soft forward guidance, a tension captured in post-earnings commentary describing the risk/reward as balanced. Sentiment has also been shaped by the broader 'AI-phobia' rotation that hit financial data and analytics names earlier in the year, followed by a sharp multi-month recovery as investors reassessed FactSet's defensive, recurring-revenue model against its premium valuation.…
FDS
FactSet
$335.45
Related headlines
FDS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FactSet's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $280.00 and implied upside of -16.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$280.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-16.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$212 - $340
Analyst target range
Coverage is moderate with 16 analysts, and the consensus is decidedly neutral: the recommendation is 'hold' with a recommendation mean of 3.22 on a scale where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell, and an average target price of $280.00 that implies roughly 7.2% downside from the current $301.67. That the stock trades above the consensus target is a meaningful signal: the market has run ahead of the analyst community, which has not yet marked estimates up to reflect the 29.6% six-month rally, and the average target likely lags the price action rather than leading it. The distribution of recent institutional actions reinforces the cautious tone, with Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley maintaining Hold/Equal Weight, Barclays and Wells Fargo reiterating Underweight, RBC and Jefferies staying at Sector Perform/Hold, and only William Blair upgrading to Outperform from Market Perform in September. The consensus therefore leans neutral-to-bearish, and the single upgrade is not enough to offset the weight of Underweight ratings. The target range of $212.00 to $340.00 is wide, spanning about 42% of the current price, which signals genuine disagreement about the margin trajectory rather than a tightly clustered, high-conviction view. The $340 high target (about 12.7% above spot) likely assumes margin stabilization, successful AI product monetization, and multiple re-expansion toward the mid-20s PE; the $212 low target (about 29.7% below spot) prices in continued gross-margin erosion, soft guidance, and a de-rating toward the high-teens PE. The recent pattern of reiterated Underweights alongside a lone upgrade suggests analysts are waiting for evidence that the fiscal 2026 margin compression has bottomed before turning constructive, and with the stock above the average target, the near-term risk/reward from a sell-side perspective is skewed to the downside even as the technical trend remains positive.
Bulls vs Bears: FDS Investment Factors
The bear case currently has slightly stronger near-term evidence: margins are compressing ~400bp, the stock trades 7.2% above the $280 consensus target, and the sell-side consensus is a 3.22 'hold' with two Underweights. The bull case rests on durability — 6.33% recurring revenue growth, $707.48M of TTM FCF, a 21.43x PE near multi-year lows, and a 0.766 beta — and on momentum that has delivered +22.14 six-month relative strength. The single most important tension is whether the gross-margin decline from 52.62% to 48.59% across FY2026 is transitory AI/data investment or a structural reset; if margins stabilize, the 21.4x multiple is cheap and the $340 high target is reachable, but if they keep sliding, the earnings base is overstated and the low multiple is a value trap.
Bullish
- Recurring revenue with 80%+ buy-side stickiness: Buy-side and wealth clients account for over 80% of annual subscription value, and revenue has risen sequentially every quarter of fiscal 2026 ($607.62M, $611.02M, $622.92M, $634.70M). Q4 revenue of $634.70M grew 6.33% YoY, demonstrating that the subscription model is still expanding even amid margin pressure.
- Momentum has decisively reversed: The stock is up 29.62% over six months and 16.89% over three months versus the S&P 500's 7.48% and 2.69%, producing relative strength of +22.14 and +14.20 respectively. The 1-month relative strength of +7.92 confirms the outperformance is current, not stale.
- Valuation near multi-year lows: The trailing PE of 21.43x compares with 44.98x at fiscal Q4 2024 and 22.93x at fiscal Q4 2025, and EV/EBITDA of 13.96x is roughly in line with mature information-services peers. The market is no longer pricing in optimistic AI-era expectations, limiting multiple-compression downside.
- Capital-light cash machine: TTM free cash flow of $707.48M (FCF/share $5.01) against Q4 capex of just $27.40M implies an FCF yield of roughly 6.2% on the $11.43B market cap. Q4 operating cash flow of $204.71M comfortably funded $137.96M of buybacks and $41.50M of dividends.
Bearish
- Gross margin down ~400bp through FY2026: Gross margin fell from 52.62% in Q1 to 51.43% in Q2, 49.88% in Q3, and 48.59% in Q4, while Q4 operating margin contracted to 24.68% from 29.71% a year earlier. Q4 net margin of 19.08% versus 25.74% a year ago shows the erosion is hitting the bottom line, not just the top.
- Stock trades above consensus target: The average analyst target of $280.00 implies roughly 7.2% downside from $301.67, and the recommendation mean of 3.22 is a 'hold' leaning cautious. Barclays and Wells Fargo reiterate Underweight while only William Blair upgraded, meaning the sell-side has not validated the 29.6% six-month rally.
- Thin liquidity and leveraged balance sheet: A current ratio of 0.599 means current liabilities exceed current assets, and debt-to-equity of 0.770 with only $239.6M of cash leaves little cushion. Q4 interest expense of $14.40M versus $12.89M a year ago is a rising drag on a company returning nearly all FCF to shareholders.
- Growth is mid-single-digit, not accelerating: Q4 revenue growth of 6.33% is consistent with the 6-7% cadence all year, and consensus revenue of $3.233B implies no re-acceleration. A 21.4x trailing PE for a ~6% grower is only cheap if margins stabilize; the forward PE of 13.90x rests on a consensus EPS of $30.70 that is inconsistent with $3.42 quarterly GAAP EPS.
FDS Technical Analysis
FactSet is in a sustained recovery uptrend that has carried the stock from a 52-week low of $185.00 to a current price of $301.67, a gain of 8.51% over the trailing year that nonetheless trails the S&P 500's 15.53% advance, producing a relative strength reading of -7.02 over 12 months. At $301.67 the shares sit roughly 94.1% of the way through the $185.00-$320.48 52-week range, a positioning that signals momentum leadership but also meaningful proximity to overextension, particularly with the all-time-range high only about 6.2% above the current quote. The stock's max drawdown of -48.7% underscores that this recovery follows a severe prior de-rating, so the uptrend is rebuilding rather than extending an uninterrupted multi-year advance. Short-term momentum is clearly accelerating: the stock is up 9.14% over the past month, 16.89% over three months, and 29.62% over six months, with the 1-month relative strength of +7.92 versus the S&P's +1.22% confirming genuine outperformance rather than beta-driven drift. This creates a notable divergence with the 1-year relative strength of -7.02, implying the stock spent the first half of the trailing year lagging badly before a powerful second-half reversal; the 3-month and 6-month relative strength readings of +14.20 and +22.14 show the turn is well established rather than a one-week bounce. The most recent session was essentially flat (-0.05%, from $301.83 to $301.67) on volume of 571,960 shares, suggesting consolidation at the highs rather than distribution, though RSI is not provided and should be checked for overbought conditions after a 29.6% six-month run. Key resistance sits at the $320.48 52-week high, roughly 6.2% above spot; a decisive breakout would confirm the recovery as a new leg higher and likely force short covering given a short ratio of 3.54 days. Support is anchored by the $185.00 52-week low, but more relevant near-term support lies in the $260-$270 zone where the September pullback found buyers (the stock bottomed at $259.71 on September 11 before rebounding). With a beta of 0.766, FactSet is roughly 23% less volatile than the market, which argues for larger position sizing per unit of expected return but also means the recent 29.6% six-month move is unusually large for this name and raises mean-reversion risk.
Beta
0.77
0.77x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$185-$340
Price range past year
Annual Return
+15.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FDS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.4% | -1.2% |
| 3m | +31.9% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +49.7% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +15.7% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +17.7% | +12.0% |
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FDS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at a steady but unspectacular pace: fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $634.70 million rose 6.33% year over year from $596.90 million, continuing a multi-quarter cadence of roughly 6-7% growth (Q3 $622.92 million, Q2 $611.02 million, Q1 $607.62 million versus $585.52 million, $570.66 million, and $568.67 million in the prior-year quarters). Sequentially, revenue has climbed every quarter of fiscal 2026, and the segment mix shows the Americas at $407.24 million (about 65% of the $622.9 million quarterly base), EMEA at $151.94 million, and Asia Pacific at $63.74 million, meaning growth is heavily levered to the U.S. buy-side wallet. The trajectory implies a low-double-digit-to-high-single-digit compounder rather than a re-accelerating growth story, which is consistent with consensus revenue of $3.233 billion and explains why the stock's re-rating has been multiple-driven rather than estimate-driven. Profitability remains robust but is compressing at the margin: Q4 net income of $121.13 million produced a 19.08% net margin, down from 25.74% in the year-ago quarter, while gross margin fell to 48.59% from 51.64% a year earlier and operating margin contracted to 24.68% from 29.71%. The full-year picture is better than the exit quarter, with a 21.54% net margin and 28.27% operating margin on a TTM basis, but the direction of travel is clear: Q1 2026 gross margin was 52.62% and Q2 51.43%, deteriorating to 49.88% in Q3 and 48.59% in Q4, a roughly 400bp decline across the fiscal year that points to rising data costs, AI infrastructure spend, or mix shift. EPS still grew to $3.42 in Q4 from $4.07 a year ago on a GAAP basis (down, reflecting the margin squeeze and higher interest expense of $14.40 million), and the company remains solidly profitable with a 26.65% ROE, so this is a margin-durability question rather than a solvency one. The balance sheet is the weakest part of the story: the current ratio of 0.599 is well below 1.0, meaning current liabilities exceed current assets, and debt-to-equity of 0.770 combined with cash of only $239.6 million at quarter-end leaves limited liquidity cushion. Cash generation is nonetheless strong, with TTM free cash flow of $707.48 million (FCF per share of $5.01) and Q4 operating cash flow of $204.71 million against capex of just $27.40 million, a capital-light model that funds growth internally. Management is returning essentially all of that cash to shareholders, repurchasing $137.96 million of stock in Q4 alone and paying $41.50 million in dividends, which explains the thin cash balance; the dividend yield of 1.44% with a 30.8% payout ratio is well covered, and the FCF yield of roughly 6.2% on the $11.43 billion market cap is respectable for a data moat business, though the sub-1.0 current ratio and 0.77 D/E mean external financing flexibility, not internal liquidity, is the backstop.
Quarterly Revenue
$634698000.0B
2026-08
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
48.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$707480000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FDS Overvalued?
Because FactSet is solidly profitable (TTM net income positive, Q4 net income of $121.13 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric; the trailing PE of 21.43x against a forward PE of 13.90x implies the market expects earnings to grow roughly 54% over the next twelve months, a gap that is unusually wide for a mid-single-digit revenue grower and warrants scrutiny. That forward multiple is derived from consensus EPS of $30.70, which appears inconsistent with the $3.42 quarterly GAAP EPS and the $0.047 key-metrics EPS figure, suggesting either a data normalization issue or a non-GAAP basis; investors should treat the 13.9x forward PE with caution and anchor instead on the 21.4x trailing PE, 4.62x PS, and 13.96x EV/EBITDA. The PEG ratio of -3.04 is not meaningful given negative or distorted growth inputs and should be disregarded. Relative to the financial data and exchanges peer group, FactSet's 21.4x trailing PE and 4.62x PS sit at a discount to the premium multiples historically commanded by MSCI and S&P Global, but the 13.96x EV/EBITDA is roughly in line with mature information-services peers, and the 5.71x price-to-book is elevated for a company with a 26.65% ROE. The 4.83x EV/Sales multiple looks reasonable against a 21.5% net margin and 28.3% operating margin, implying the market is paying about 17x operating profit, which is fair-to-slightly-cheap for a recurring-revenue franchise with 90%+ retention characteristics. The critical caveat is that the premium is only justified if the margin compression seen through fiscal 2026 (gross margin down roughly 400bp year over year) proves transitory; if data and AI costs are structurally higher, the earnings base is overstated and the multiple is not as cheap as it appears. On historical context, FactSet's own PE band has compressed dramatically: the trailing PE was 44.98x at fiscal Q4 2024, 22.93x at fiscal Q4 2025, and 21.43x now, while the PS ratio has fallen from 28.97x two years ago to 17.49x at the last reported quarter and 4.62x on the current snapshot (the latter reflecting a different share-count or data basis). Even accounting for data inconsistencies, the direction is unambiguous: the stock is near the bottom of its multi-year valuation band, with the current 21.4x PE versus a 2022-2024 range that frequently exceeded 30-45x. That compression reflects both the margin deterioration and the broader de-rating of financial data vendors amid AI disruption fears, and it means the market is no longer pricing in optimistic expectations; the risk is that the low multiple is a value trap if growth and margins continue to erode rather than a genuine opportunity.
PE
21.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~48x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin durability and balance-sheet flexibility. Gross margin fell roughly 400bp across fiscal 2026 (52.62% in Q1 to 48.59% in Q4), Q4 operating margin contracted to 24.68% from 29.71%, and Q4 net margin dropped to 19.08% from 25.74%, so each point of further compression hits EPS directly. The current ratio of 0.599 and debt-to-equity of 0.770 with only $239.6M of cash mean the company funds itself through cash flow and external markets rather than internal liquidity, and Q4 interest expense of $14.40M is already a visible drag. Revenue concentration adds to the risk: the Americas generated $407.24M of the $622.9M quarterly base (about 65%), tying growth to the U.S. buy-side wallet.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation and AI disruption. The stock trades at 21.43x trailing earnings and 4.62x sales, and while that is below the 44.98x PE of fiscal Q4 2024, the de-rating reflects genuine fear that AI tools could disintermediate data-workflow vendors — the 'AI-phobia' rotation that hit software, brokerage, insurance, and asset management earlier in 2026. With a beta of 0.766 the stock is less macro-sensitive than the market, but a CAPE above 40 and a Fed that has warned of persistent inflation and a delayed rate-cut cycle threaten multiples across expensive equities. The sell-side is not supportive: 16 analysts carry a 3.22 'hold' mean with Barclays and Wells Fargo at Underweight, and the $280 average target sits 7.2% below the current price.
Worst case, margin erosion proves structural, FY2027 guidance disappoints, and the multiple de-rates toward the high teens as analysts cut toward the $212 low target. That would take the stock from $301.67 down roughly 29.7% to $212, and a broader AI-disruption scare could retest the $185.00 52-week low, a decline of about 38.7%. The -48.7% max drawdown is the historical precedent for how far this name can fall when sentiment turns, so an investor should size positions for a realistic 30-40% drawdown rather than the 0.766 beta's implied calm.

