Fox Corporation
FOX
$61.41
+5.70%
Fox Corporation operates in the Communication Services sector, primarily through two segments: Cable Network Programming, which includes Fox News, Fox Business, and sports networks, and Television, which encompasses the Fox broadcast network, local TV stations, and the ad-supported streaming platform Tubi. The company is a major player in live news and sports, leveraging its strong position in the pay-TV bundle, and is controlled by the Murdoch family. Currently, Fox is undergoing a transformative phase with its $22 billion acquisition of Roku, a move that has sparked investor debate due to the associated debt and dilution, while also raising questions about its strategic direction in the streaming landscape. The stock has experienced significant volatility, including a sharp decline in June 2026 following the Roku announcement, but has since recovered, reflecting both the risks and potential rewards of this bold pivot.…
FOX
Fox Corporation
$61.41
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FOX Today?
We rate FOX a Hold. The stock trades at a forward PE of 10.9x, a 46% discount to the industry average of 22x, but the Roku acquisition introduces significant execution risk. The single analyst's average EPS estimate of $6.75 implies a forward PE of 8.2x, suggesting potential upside if the deal succeeds. However, the lack of analyst coverage and recent revenue decline warrant caution.
Sign up to view all
FOX 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model sees a balanced risk/reward. The low valuation and strong cash flow provide downside support, but the Roku acquisition introduces significant uncertainty. The model would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive and the debt is managed well, or downgrade to bearish if the deal leads to a credit downgrade or revenue continues to decline.
Wall Street consensus
Analyst coverage is extremely limited, with only 1 analyst providing estimates. The consensus recommendation is 'none', indicating a lack of clear bullish or bearish sentiment. The average estimated EPS is $6.75, with a range of $6.68 to $6.83, and the average revenue estimate is $18.11 billion. Given the current price of $55.37, the implied PE based on the average EPS is 8.2x, which is below the trailing PE, suggesting that analysts expect earnings to grow. However, with only one analyst, this data is not statistically significant and should be interpreted with caution. The lack of coverage implies that Fox is not a widely followed stock, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The limited coverage also means that the stock may be undervalued or overvalued without the market fully recognizing it, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors.
Bulls vs Bears: FOX Investment Factors
The bull case for FOX rests on a deeply discounted valuation (11.8x PE vs. 22x industry) and strong cash generation, while the bear case centers on the risky Roku acquisition and recent revenue decline. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger given the 8.6% revenue drop and the overhang of $22 billion in new debt. The pivotal tension is whether the Roku deal will successfully transform Fox into a streaming leader or burden it with debt and dilution, which will determine the stock's trajectory over the next 12-24 months.
Bullish
- Deep valuation discount to peers: FOX trades at a trailing PE of 11.8x and forward PE of 10.9x, a 46% discount to the industry average of 22x. This low multiple provides a margin of safety if the Roku acquisition succeeds.
- Strong free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $2.36 billion, supporting a 1.45% dividend yield and providing capacity to service the new debt from the Roku deal. The payout ratio is a conservative 17%.
- High operating efficiency: Operating margin is 24.5% and gross margin is 49.4%, reflecting Fox's strong pricing power in cable networks and broadcast. These margins are well above the typical media company.
- Strategic pivot to streaming via Roku: The $22 billion acquisition of Roku positions Fox to capture the ad-supported streaming market, leveraging Roku's 80+ million active accounts. This could diversify revenue beyond the declining pay-TV bundle.
Bearish
- Revenue decline in latest quarter: Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 8.6% YoY to $3.99 billion, driven by soft advertising and affiliate markets. This marks a reversal from prior growth and raises concerns about core business health.
- Massive debt and dilution from Roku deal: The $22 billion acquisition requires substantial debt and equity issuance, increasing financial risk. The stock plunged 24.9% in June 2026 on these fears, and the debt-to-equity ratio is already 0.57.
- Limited analyst coverage and no consensus: Only 1 analyst covers FOX, with a 'none' recommendation, indicating a lack of institutional interest and potential inefficiencies. This can lead to higher volatility and less price discovery.
- Underperformance vs. market: FOX is down 16.1% YTD and 28.8% relative to the S&P 500, while the market is up 12.7%. The stock's 1-year return of 11.9% lags the S&P's 21.5%, showing persistent weakness.
FOX Technical Analysis
Fox's stock is currently in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown. Over the past year, the stock is up 11.86%, but it remains 18.8% below its 52-week high of $68.175, trading at $55.37 as of August 6, 2026. The stock is positioned at 62.5% of its 52-week range (calculated as (55.37 - 44.08) / (68.175 - 44.08)), indicating it has recovered from the lows but still has upside to the highs. This positioning suggests a mix of value opportunity and lingering uncertainty, as the stock has not yet regained its prior momentum.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$44-$68
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FOX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.9% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +6.1% | +5.0% |
| 6m | +19.1% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +12.5% | +20.4% |
| ytd | -6.9% | +13.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
FOX Fundamental Analysis
Fox's revenue has been volatile, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) showing revenue of $3.994 billion, a decline of 8.63% year-over-year. This follows a pattern of fluctuating quarterly revenues: Q2 FY2026 saw $5.182 billion, Q1 FY2026 had $3.738 billion, and Q4 FY2025 was $3.287 billion. The revenue decline in the latest quarter is concerning, but the company's diversified segments—Cable Network Programming ($1.741 billion) and Television ($2.197 billion)—show the TV segment driving the majority of revenue. The growth trajectory is uneven, with the company facing challenges in advertising markets and the ongoing shift to streaming, but the acquisition of Roku could provide new growth avenues in the future.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-8.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is FOX Overvalued?
Given that Fox has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 11.80x, while the forward PE is 10.92x, indicating that the market expects earnings to grow slightly. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests modest growth expectations, which is reasonable given the company's mature industry and recent revenue declines. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), Fox trades at a significant discount of 46%, which could be justified by its lower growth prospects and the risks associated with the Roku acquisition. Historically, Fox's PE has ranged from as low as 5.07x to as high as 34.04x over the past few years, and the current 11.80x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its own history, but this could also reflect fundamental deterioration.
PE
11.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are elevated following the Roku acquisition. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.57, and the $22 billion deal will likely increase leverage significantly, raising interest expenses (already $66 million in Q3 FY2026). While free cash flow of $2.36 billion provides some cushion, the recent revenue decline of 8.6% YoY could strain cash generation if it persists. The payout ratio of 17% leaves room for dividend cuts if needed, but the market's reaction (stock down 24.9% in June) reflects concerns about balance sheet health.
FAQ
The primary risks are: 1) Financial risk from the $22 billion Roku acquisition, which increases debt and dilution; 2) Operational risk from declining revenue (down 8.6% YoY in Q3 FY2026) and dependence on the pay-TV bundle; 3) Market risk from a low beta (0.54) but underperformance relative to the S&P 500; 4) Company-specific risk from limited analyst coverage and the Murdoch family's control. The most severe risk is a failed integration leading to a credit downgrade and a drop to the 52-week low of $44.08.
Our 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: a bull case (30% probability) with a target of $65-75, driven by successful Roku integration and revenue recovery; a base case (45% probability) with a target of $55-65, assuming moderate progress; and a bear case (25% probability) with a target of $44-50, if the deal fails or the ad market weakens. The most likely outcome is the base case, with the stock trading around current levels as the market awaits evidence of Roku's contribution.
FOX appears undervalued relative to its own history and peers. The trailing PE of 11.8x is near the lower end of its 5-year range (5.07x-34.04x), and it trades at a 46% discount to the industry average of 22x. The forward PE of 10.9x implies modest earnings growth, but the market is pricing in significant risk from the Roku deal. If the acquisition succeeds, the stock could re-rate higher; if it fails, the low valuation may be justified.
FOX offers a compelling risk/reward at current levels, with a forward PE of 10.9x and a 46% discount to the industry average. However, the Roku acquisition introduces significant execution risk, and the stock has underperformed the market YTD. It could be a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a 2-3 year horizon, but the lack of analyst coverage and recent revenue decline warrant caution. If you believe in the streaming transformation, the potential upside to $75 (analyst high) is attractive, but the downside to $44 (52-week low) is also possible.
FOX is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its low beta (0.54), stable cash flows, and the potential for the Roku acquisition to create value over time. Short-term trading is risky given the high volatility around the deal and the lack of analyst coverage. The stock's dividend yield of 1.45% provides some income while waiting for the transformation to play out. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the Roku integration to show results.