Fox Corporation
FOXA
$68.54
+0.85%
Fox Corporation is a media and entertainment company operating through two primary segments: Cable Network Programming, which includes Fox News, Fox Business, and sports networks, and Television, which encompasses the Fox broadcast network, local TV stations, and the ad-supported streaming platform Tubi. The company holds a distinct market position as a focused player in live news and sports, having divested its entertainment assets to Disney in 2019, and is controlled by the Murdoch family. Currently, the stock is at the center of investor debate following its transformative $22 billion acquisition of Roku, which has raised concerns about debt and dilution while also positioning Fox to expand its streaming and advertising capabilities. The market is weighing the potential long-term benefits of this strategic pivot against the immediate financial strain and integration risks.…
FOXA
Fox Corporation
$68.54
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FOXA Today?
We rate FOXA as a Hold. The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with an average target of $71.56, but the modest upside of 3.65% and high uncertainty around the Roku deal warrant caution. The stock offers a defensive profile with low beta and attractive valuation, but near-term earnings headwinds and integration risks limit upside potential.
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FOXA 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While the valuation is compelling and the company generates strong free cash flow, the Roku acquisition introduces significant execution risk and near-term financial strain. The wide analyst target range and mixed recent ratings underscore the uncertainty. An upgrade to bullish would require evidence of successful Roku integration and revenue acceleration, while a downgrade to bearish would be triggered by further margin deterioration or debt-related issues.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fox Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $74.51 and implied upside of +8.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$74.51
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$53 - $112
Analyst target range
Fox is covered by 17 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.11 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average price target is $71.56, implying a modest upside of 3.65% from the current price of $69.04. The target range is wide, from a low of $52.60 to a high of $112.00, indicating significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target of $112.00 suggests that some analysts see substantial upside potential, likely driven by the successful integration of Roku and growth in streaming advertising. The low target of $52.60 implies a downside of -23.8%, reflecting concerns about debt, dilution, and competitive pressures. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with Wolfe Research upgrading to Outperform in July 2026, while others like Wells Fargo and Barclays have maintained Equal Weight. The wide target spread and mixed ratings highlight the high uncertainty surrounding Fox's strategic direction.
Bulls vs Bears: FOXA Investment Factors
Fox presents a classic value-versus-growth dilemma. On the bull side, the stock trades at a compelling valuation (PE 11.8x, EV/EBITDA 7.65x) with strong free cash flow and a defensive business model. On the bear side, the transformative Roku acquisition introduces significant debt, dilution, and integration risks, while revenue and margins are declining. Currently, the bear case appears stronger in the near term due to the immediate financial strain and high uncertainty, but the bull case could prevail if the Roku integration drives substantial streaming growth. The single most important tension is whether the Roku acquisition will create long-term value or destroy shareholder wealth, as it hinges on execution and market acceptance.
Bullish
- Attractive Valuation with Low PE: FOXA trades at a trailing PE of 11.80x and forward PE of 11.92x, well below the broader market and its own historical average. The EV/EBITDA of 7.65x and price-to-sales of 1.16x further indicate a discounted valuation relative to industry peers, providing a margin of safety.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $2.362 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. This cash flow provides flexibility to service debt from the Roku acquisition and fund strategic initiatives, supporting financial stability.
- Defensive Business with Low Beta: With a beta of 0.541, FOXA is significantly less volatile than the market, offering a defensive investment profile. Its focus on live news and sports, which are less cyclical and have loyal audiences, provides stable revenue streams even during economic downturns.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside: The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with an average price target of $71.56, implying a 3.65% upside from the current price of $69.04. The high target of $112.00 suggests substantial potential if the Roku integration succeeds, reflecting optimism among some analysts.
Bearish
- Massive Debt and Dilution Concerns: The Roku acquisition is funded with significant debt and equity dilution, raising the debt-to-equity ratio to 0.65 and increasing share count. Investor fears over financial strain led to a 24.9% stock plunge in June 2026, highlighting the market's skepticism about the deal's value.
- Declining Revenue and Margins: Q3 FY2026 revenue declined 8.63% YoY to $3.994 billion, with gross margin contracting to 37.56% from 41.63% in Q1. Net income fell sharply to $166 million from $599 million in Q1, reflecting margin compression and operational challenges.
- High Uncertainty in Analyst Targets: The analyst target range is extremely wide, from $52.60 to $112.00, indicating significant disagreement about the company's future. The low target implies a -23.8% downside, reflecting concerns about integration risks and competitive pressures.
- Negative PEG and Expected Earnings Decline: The PEG ratio is -0.59, indicating expected earnings declines, and the forward PE is slightly higher than trailing, suggesting the market anticipates stagnant or falling earnings. This undermines the growth narrative and could lead to valuation compression.
FOXA Technical Analysis
Fox's stock has exhibited a volatile but ultimately upward trend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +15.28%. The current price of $69.04 sits at 90.4% of its 52-week range (low of $48.34, high of $76.39), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 0.541 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, providing a defensive characteristic that may appeal to risk-averse investors. The 52-week high of $76.39 was reached in early 2026, and the stock has since pulled back but is now approaching that level again, which could act as a resistance point.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-35.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$48-$76
Price range past year
Annual Return
+16.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FOXA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.4% | +2.5% |
| 3m | +7.1% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +20.2% | +11.1% |
| 1y | +16.1% | +20.5% |
| ytd | -7.1% | +12.3% |
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FOXA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) was $3.994 billion, a decline of 8.63% year-over-year, reflecting a deceleration from the prior quarter's $5.182 billion. The revenue decline was driven by a 16.4% drop in the Television segment to $2.197 billion, partially offset by a 3.6% increase in Cable Network Programming to $1.741 billion. The company's gross margin contracted to 37.56% in Q3 from 41.63% in Q1, indicating cost pressures. Net income for Q3 was $166 million, down from $599 million in Q1, with a net margin of 4.16%, reflecting a significant decline in profitability. The company's operating margin also fell to 20.06% in Q3 from 25.87% in Q1, indicating margin compression. For the trailing twelve months, free cash flow was $2.362 billion, and the company maintains a current ratio of 3.17, indicating strong liquidity. However, the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65 suggests moderate leverage, and the company's ROE of 14.49% is respectable. The company's cash flow from operations in Q3 was $1.902 billion, but this was boosted by working capital changes; the prior quarter saw negative operating cash flow of -$669 million, highlighting volatility.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-8.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
37.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FOXA Overvalued?
Given that Fox has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 11.80x, while the forward PE is 11.92x, indicating that the market expects earnings to remain relatively stable. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.16x, which is below the industry average of 1.81x (EV/Sales), suggesting a discount. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.65x is also attractive compared to the broader market. The PEG ratio is negative at -0.59, reflecting expected earnings declines. Historically, Fox's PE has ranged from as low as 5.07x (Q3 2024) to as high as 34.04x (Q3 2026), with the current 11.80x near the lower end of that range, indicating a potential value opportunity. The price-to-book ratio of 1.71x is also below the historical average of around 1.8x, further supporting a value thesis.
PE
11.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are elevated following the Roku acquisition. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65 and increased interest expenses (Q3 interest expense of $66 million) strain profitability, while revenue declined 8.63% YoY and net margin fell to 4.16% in Q3. The reliance on the pay-TV bundle for news and sports exposes Fox to cord-cutting, and the Television segment saw a 16.4% revenue drop, indicating structural challenges. Cash flow volatility is also a concern, with operating cash flow swinging from -$669 million in Q2 to $1.902 billion in Q3, driven by working capital changes.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk from increased debt and dilution due to the Roku acquisition, with debt-to-equity at 0.65 and interest expenses rising. 2) Operational risk from declining revenue and margins, as seen in Q3 with an 8.63% revenue drop and net margin of 4.16%. 3) Competitive risk from streaming giants like Netflix, which have superior scale and content. 4) Macro risk from advertising cyclicality and cord-cutting, which could accelerate. The most severe risk is a failed Roku integration, which could lead to a -23.8% downside to the analyst low target of $52.60.
The 12-month forecast is mixed, with a base case target of $71.56 (analyst average) implying a 3.65% upside. The bull case targets $80-$112 (25% probability) if Roku integration succeeds, while the bear case targets $48-$55 (25% probability) if it fails. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock trades around $70 as the market awaits clearer evidence of the Roku deal's impact. Key assumptions include stable revenue, manageable margins, and no major integration setbacks.
FOXA appears undervalued relative to its own history and peers. The trailing PE of 11.80x is near the lower end of its historical range (5.07x to 34.04x), and the EV/EBITDA of 7.65x is below the industry average. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.16x is also below the industry EV/Sales of 1.81x. However, the negative PEG ratio (-0.59) reflects expected earnings declines, which tempers the value case. The market is pricing in stagnant earnings and integration risks, but if the Roku deal succeeds, the stock could be significantly undervalued.
FOXA is a reasonable buy for value investors with a long-term horizon, given its low PE of 11.8x and strong free cash flow. However, the modest upside to the average analyst target of $71.56 (3.65%) and high uncertainty from the Roku acquisition suggest it's not a compelling buy at current levels. The stock could be a good buy if it dips below $60, offering a better margin of safety, or if the Roku integration shows clear progress. For risk-averse investors, the low beta and defensive business model are attractive, but the debt and dilution concerns warrant caution.
FOXA is more suitable for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics, low beta (0.541), and potential for streaming growth. Short-term trading is risky given the high volatility from the Roku acquisition and wide analyst target range. The stock offers a modest dividend yield of 1.45%, providing some income while waiting for value realization. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the Roku integration to mature and for the market to recognize the strategic value. Investors with a shorter horizon may find better opportunities elsewhere.