GILD

Gilead Sciences

$133.05

-1.40%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Gilead Sciences is a global biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes therapies for life-threatening infectious diseases, with a core focus on HIV and viral hepatitis, and has strategically expanded into oncology through acquisitions. The company is a market leader in antiviral therapies and has established itself as a significant player in cell therapy and oncology via its Kite Pharma and Immunomedics acquisitions. The current investor narrative revolves around its aggressive acquisition strategy to bolster its long-term pipeline in oncology and immunology, as evidenced by recent multi-billion dollar deals for Tubulis and Arcellx, which aim to offset slowing growth in its legacy antiviral portfolio and drive future earnings growth from new modalities.

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GILD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $133.05
Average Target $133.05
High Target $153.0075
Low Target $113.0925

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Gilead Sciences's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $172.97 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$172.97

8 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

8

covering this stock

Price Range

$106 - $173

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (25%)
Hold
4 (50%)
Sell
2 (25%)

Analyst coverage for Gilead is robust, with 10 analysts providing estimates, and the institutional ratings show a decidedly bullish tilt, with recent actions from firms like Needham, Truist, Citigroup, and UBS all maintaining 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings. The consensus recommendation is a 'Buy', and while a specific average target price is not provided in the data, the sustained bullish sentiment from multiple firms following recent earnings and acquisition news suggests the Street sees value at current levels. The estimated EPS range for the coming period is $12.31 to $13.34, with an average of $12.75, indicating a relatively tight spread of about 8%, which points to a higher degree of conviction in near-term earnings forecasts. The high-end targets likely assume successful integration of acquisitions like Arcellx and Tubulis, leading to multiple expansion and accelerated top-line growth from the oncology franchise, while the low-end targets may price in execution risks, margin pressure from R&D investments, and potential competitive challenges in the core HIV business. The pattern of recent analyst actions shows no downgrades, with firms largely reiterating positive ratings post-Q4 earnings and M&A announcements, reinforcing a constructive outlook despite the stock's recent technical weakness.

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GILD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 27.5% one-year price increase, but has recently entered a corrective phase. Currently trading at $131.65, the price sits approximately 58% of its 52-week range ($95.30 to $157.29), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs and is now in the lower-middle portion of its annual band, suggesting a loss of momentum and potential consolidation. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down 6.2% over the past month and 7.3% over the past three months, a stark divergence from the strong yearly performance that signals a significant pullback and potential trend exhaustion. The stock's beta of 0.404 indicates it is roughly 60% less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which has gained 9.98% over the same one-month period, highlighting GILD's pronounced recent underperformance and defensive characteristics. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $95.30, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $157.29; a sustained break below the recent April low of $127.75 could signal a deeper correction toward the $120 support zone, whereas a recovery above the $150 level would be needed to re-establish the prior uptrend. The stock's low beta suggests it should exhibit lower volatility than the market, yet its recent 1-month relative strength of -16.1% versus the SPY indicates it is undergoing significant idiosyncratic selling pressure, likely tied to investor concerns over the cost and integration of recent acquisitions.

Beta

0.33

0.33x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-18.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$98-$157

Price range past year

Annual Return

+31.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodGILD ReturnS&P 500
1m-4.3%+8.2%
3m-12.4%+9.0%
6m+6.4%+10.5%
1y+31.2%+26.5%
ytd+9.4%+8.9%

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GILD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $7.93 billion representing a 4.7% year-over-year increase, though this marks a deceleration from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters of 2025. The revenue segment data reveals the business remains heavily reliant on its HIV franchise, which contributed $5.8 billion, while newer oncology assets like Cell Therapy products ($627 million) and Trodelvy ($383 million) are growing but from a smaller base; the decline of Veklury (remdesivir) to $211 million is a notable headwind. This mixed growth profile underscores the company's ongoing transition from a pure-play virology firm to a broader biopharmaceutical entity. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $2.18 billion and a robust gross margin of 86.8%, reflecting the high-margin nature of its pharmaceutical portfolio. Profitability has been volatile on a quarterly basis, as seen in the swing from a net loss of $4.17 billion in Q1 2024 to strong profits thereafter, largely due to a one-time impairment charge; the trailing twelve-month net margin stands at a healthy 28.9%. The operating margin for the latest quarter was 40.1%, demonstrating the company's ability to convert revenue into earnings efficiently, which is critical for funding its business development activities. The balance sheet is leveraged but manageable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.09, and the company generates substantial cash, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $9.46 billion. This strong cash generation, equating to a free cash flow yield of approximately 6.2% based on the current market cap, provides ample capacity for dividend payments (payout ratio of 47%), share buybacks, and strategic acquisitions without overstressing the financial structure. The current ratio of 1.68 indicates sufficient short-term liquidity, and a return on equity of 37.6% is exceptionally high, driven by the leveraged balance sheet and profitable operations.

Quarterly Revenue

$7.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.04%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.86%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$9.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Cell Therapy Products, Total Cell Therapy Product Sales
Products, Other HIV
Other Products, Total Other product sales
Trodelvy
Veklury

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Valuation Analysis: Is GILD Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 17.94x, while the forward PE is lower at 13.69x, indicating the market expects earnings growth; the significant discount of the forward multiple suggests analysts anticipate a substantial earnings increase, likely from the integration of recent acquisitions and pipeline contributions. Compared to the broader 'Drug Manufacturers' industry, Gilead's trailing PE of 17.94x is slightly below the sector average PE of approximately 22x (implied from typical biopharma peers), representing a modest discount of about 18%. This discount may reflect investor concerns about growth sustainability and the high cost of recent business development, offsetting the company's superior profitability metrics like its 86.7% gross margin. Historically, Gilead's own trailing PE has fluctuated significantly, from negative territory during loss-making quarters to highs above 25x; the current 17.94x is near the middle of its recent historical range, suggesting the stock is neither egregiously overvalued nor deeply undervalued based on its own history. This mid-range positioning implies the market has priced in a balanced view of Gilead's near-term execution risks and its long-term pipeline optionality from acquisitions.

PE

17.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -5x~982x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple