HAS

Hasbro

$94.01

-0.52%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Hasbro, Inc. is a leading branded play company operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Leisure industry, creating and marketing toys, games, and entertainment content based on iconic franchises like Transformers, Peppa Pig, and Magic: The Gathering. The company is a dominant market player with a vast intellectual property portfolio, leveraging its brands across toys, digital gaming, and media through a strategy of focused brand building and recent portfolio rationalization, including the divestiture of non-core assets from its eOne acquisition. The current investor narrative centers on a potential turnaround and operational recovery, as evidenced by recent news highlighting better-than-expected quarterly revenue and reaffirmed guidance, which is helping to counterbalance concerns related to past operational challenges and a significant cyber incident that caused near-term delays.

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HAS 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $94.01
Average Target $94.01
High Target $108.11149999999999
Low Target $79.9085

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hasbro's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $122.21 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$122.21

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$75 - $122

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Analyst coverage for Hasbro is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, which is below the typical coverage for a large-cap company and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment among the few covering firms appears bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from major banks like UBS, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Buy' or 'Overweight' stances throughout early 2026. An average target price cannot be calculated from the provided data, so the implied upside or downside to consensus is not available. The target range is also not provided in the dataset. However, the pattern of recent analyst actions shows stability and no downgrades, with firms reaffirming positive ratings following earnings reports. The limited number of analysts and the absence of a published target range signal that while the covered institutions are constructive, there is likely a wider dispersion of views on the stock in the broader market, contributing to the uncertainty typically associated with a turnaround story in a challenged industry.

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Bulls vs Bears: HAS Investment Factors

The investment debate for Hasbro centers on a classic turnaround story: strong recent operational momentum and cash generation versus a legacy of high debt and volatile earnings. The bull side currently has stronger near-term evidence, anchored by the powerful Q4 revenue rebound of 31.25% and substantial $829.9 million in TTM free cash flow. However, the bear case is grounded in structural financial risk, quantified by a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32 and a history of severe quarterly losses. The single most important tension is whether the company's robust cash flow can sustainably service its massive debt load while funding growth, or if the high leverage will constrain the recovery and magnify any operational misstep. The resolution of this tension will determine if the stock re-rates from its depressed PS ratio of 2.47 or remains trapped by balance sheet concerns.

Bullish

  • Strong Q4 Revenue Rebound: Q4 2025 revenue grew 31.25% YoY to $1.446 billion, signaling a powerful recovery from the prior year's weak quarter. This acceleration, alongside a robust 68.95% gross margin, demonstrates the underlying strength of the company's high-margin brand portfolio.
  • Significant Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a substantial $829.9 million, providing ample internal resources for debt service and operations. This strong cash generation is a critical positive for a company with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32.
  • Analyst Sentiment & Technical Momentum: Covering institutions like UBS and Goldman Sachs maintain 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings, indicating professional confidence in the turnaround. Technically, the stock is up 56.93% over the past year and trades near 76% of its 52-week range, reflecting strong positive momentum.
  • Valuation Near Historical Lows: The trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 2.47 is near the bottom of its multi-year range, which has been as high as 12.09. This suggests the market is pricing in significant skepticism, creating a potential value opportunity if the operational recovery continues.

Bearish

  • Extremely High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32 indicates a heavily debt-funded capital structure, posing a significant risk to equity holders. This leverage amplifies financial distress risks, especially if interest rates remain elevated or cash flow falters.
  • Volatile & Inconsistent Profitability: The company posted a massive $855.8 million net loss in Q2 2025, leading to a deeply negative trailing ROE of -59.87%. While Q4 was profitable, this extreme quarterly volatility and negative overall earnings (EPS of -$0.028) undermine confidence in a stable recovery.
  • Momentum Deceleration & Consolidation: Short-term momentum has stalled, with the stock gaining only 6.59% over the past month versus 56.93% over the past year, and showing negative relative strength (-3.39) against the SPY. This suggests the sharp rally may be overextended, increasing near-term pullback risk.
  • Limited Analyst Coverage & Visibility: Only 4 analysts provide estimates, which is below typical large-cap coverage and can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility. The absence of a published average target price or range adds uncertainty to the investment thesis.

HAS Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 56.93% 1-year price change. With a current price of $95.27, it is trading at approximately 76% of its 52-week range ($60.33 to $106.98), positioning it closer to the upper bound, which suggests strong momentum but also raises questions about potential overextension after such a significant rally. Recent short-term momentum shows deceleration from the longer-term trend; the stock gained 6.67% over the last 3 months but only 6.59% over the past month, indicating a consolidation phase near recent highs after a sharp run-up in February. This divergence, where the 1-month return is significantly lower than the 1-year return, signals a potential pause or pullback as the stock digests its gains, a view supported by its negative 1-month relative strength of -3.39 against the SPY. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $60.33, while immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $106.98. A decisive breakout above $107 would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, whereas a breakdown below the recent consolidation range around $90 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock exhibits below-market volatility with a beta of 0.544, meaning it has historically been about 46% less volatile than the SPY, which is notable for a consumer cyclical name and suggests a lower risk profile for position sizing, though recent price swings indicate idiosyncratic event-driven volatility.

Beta

0.52

0.52x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-16.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$65-$107

Price range past year

Annual Return

+42.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHAS ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.6%+8.2%
3m-7.4%+9.0%
6m+21.0%+10.5%
1y+42.8%+26.5%
ytd+13.3%+8.9%

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HAS Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been volatile but showed a significant rebound in the latest quarter; Q4 2025 revenue was $1.446 billion, representing a robust 31.25% year-over-year growth, a sharp acceleration from the prior year's Q4 revenue of $1.102 billion. This positive trend is a key recovery signal, though it follows a period of instability including a weak Q2 2025 where revenue was only $980.8 million, indicating the growth trajectory is not yet smooth and remains quarter-dependent. Profitability has been inconsistent, with the company posting a net income of $201.6 million in Q4 2025, a strong turnaround from a net loss of $34.3 million in the year-ago quarter. The gross margin remains healthy at 68.95% for Q4 2025, consistent with its high-margin brand and licensing model, and the operating margin was 22.5% according to valuation data, demonstrating core operational strength when excluding one-time charges like the significant $1.038 billion 'other expenses' hit in Q2 2025 that led to an $855.8 million net loss. The balance sheet shows elevated financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32, indicating a heavily debt-funded capital structure, which is a key risk factor. However, liquidity is adequate with a current ratio of 1.38, and the company is generating substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $829.9 million, providing it with internal resources to service debt and fund operations. The return on equity is deeply negative at -59.87%, primarily distorted by the large Q2 loss and high debt load, masking the underlying cash-generating ability of the business.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.31%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.68%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$829899999.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Consumer Products
Entertainment Segment
Corporate, Non-Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is HAS Overvalued?

Given the trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.028), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. Hasbro trades at a trailing PS ratio of 2.47 and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) of 3.41. The forward-looking perspective is more relevant, with analysts estimating full-year revenue of $5.77 billion, implying a forward PS ratio of approximately 2.01 based on the current market cap, suggesting the market is pricing in steady but modest growth expectations. Compared to industry averages, data is not available in the provided dataset for a direct sector PS or EV/Sales comparison. Therefore, a peer comparison cannot be quantitatively made. A qualitative assessment would note that as a pure-play toy and game company with valuable IP, Hasbro's valuation would typically be judged against its own historical norms and cash flow generation rather than a broad sector multiple. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated significantly. The current PS of 2.47 is near the lower end of its recent historical range, which has seen figures as high as 12.09 in early 2021 and as low as 2.47 currently. This positioning near the bottom of its multi-year band suggests the market is either pricing in a value opportunity following its challenges or reflecting skepticism about sustained growth, especially when compared to the premium multiples during the pandemic-driven demand surge.

PE

-36.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -138x~48x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

61.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks are pronounced, primarily stemming from an extremely leveraged balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.32. This high leverage means even modest downturns in cash flow, which showed volatility with a weak Q2 2025 revenue of $980.8 million, could pressure the company's ability to service its obligations. Furthermore, profitability is highly inconsistent, as evidenced by the swing from a $855.8 million net loss in Q2 to a $201.6 million profit in Q4, creating significant earnings visibility risk. The company's valuation is also dependent on continued growth to justify any multiple expansion from its current depressed levels.

Market & Competitive Risks include valuation compression, as the stock has already rallied 56.93% in the past year and trades at 76% of its 52-week range, leaving limited near-term upside without flawless execution. While the beta of 0.544 suggests lower market correlation, the stock faces sector-specific headwinds like shifting consumer preferences and intense competition in toys and digital gaming. The limited analyst coverage (only 4 firms) exacerbates these risks by reducing market scrutiny and potentially leading to sharper corrections on negative news, such as the recent cyber incident that caused operational delays.

Worst-Case Scenario involves a combination of a consumer spending slowdown, a misstep in the ongoing brand portfolio rationalization, and a failure to maintain the recent Q4 revenue growth momentum. This could trigger a liquidity crunch given the high debt load, leading to credit rating downgrades and forced asset sales. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically retest its 52-week low of $60.33, representing a downside of approximately -37% from the current price of $95.27. A more severe but plausible drawdown could mirror the stock's recent maximum drawdown of -19.11%, amplified by the leverage risk.