Henry Schein
HSIC
$86.51
+0.89%
Henry Schein Inc is a global solutions company for healthcare professionals, offering a comprehensive range of medical and dental products, equipment, and value-added services, operating primarily in the healthcare distribution industry. As one of the largest distributors in the dental and medical markets, the company differentiates itself through its integrated technology and specialty products segments, serving office-based practitioners and alternative care sites. The current investor narrative centers on the company's steady revenue growth and margin recovery, driven by its core distribution business and technology solutions, while the stock has shown strong momentum in 2026, outperforming the broader market. Recent attention has been on analyst upgrades and the company's ability to sustain growth amid a competitive distribution landscape.…
HSIC
Henry Schein
$86.51
HSIC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Henry Schein's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $89.31 and implied upside of +3.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$89.31
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$64 - $100
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $64.00 to a high of $100.00, representing a wide spread of $36, which indicates significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $100 implies a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price, likely assuming continued revenue growth and margin expansion, while the low target of $64 suggests a downside of 25.3%, possibly factoring in competitive pressures or a recessionary impact on healthcare spending. The wide range reflects divergent views among analysts, with some seeing strong growth potential and others cautious about the distribution industry's challenges. The recent institutional ratings show a mix of actions, with BTIG upgrading to Buy, while UBS, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley maintain Neutral or Underweight stances, indicating a lack of consensus on the stock's near-term prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: HSIC Investment Factors
Henry Schein presents a balanced but slightly bullish case. The company's steady revenue growth, margin recovery potential, and strong relative strength are countered by valuation concerns and mixed analyst sentiment. The most important tension is whether the market's expectation of significant earnings growth (reflected in the forward PE of 14.52x) will be met; if margins expand as anticipated, the stock could re-rate higher, but any shortfall could lead to multiple compression. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence due to the positive revenue trajectory and analyst consensus, but the narrow upside to the average target suggests limited near-term gains.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 6.31% YoY to $3.368B, with sequential acceleration from Q4 2025's 7.7% growth. This steady upward trend is driven by the core Global Distribution segment, which generated $2.953B in revenue.
- Margin Expansion Potential: Gross margin improved to 31.77% in Q1 2026 from 29.61% in Q1 2025, and operating margin rose to 5.40% from 6.38% YoY. The forward PE of 14.52x implies the market expects significant earnings growth, supported by analyst EPS estimates of $6.71.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With 16 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' (mean 2.29), and the average target price of $89.31 implies 4.15% upside from the current price of $85.75. The high target of $100 suggests 16.6% upside, reflecting optimism about growth and margin recovery.
- Strong Relative Strength: The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, with a 1-year return of +26.76% vs. SPY's +18.19%, and a 3-month relative strength of 12.33. This momentum is supported by a beta of 0.806, indicating lower volatility than the market.
Bearish
- Elevated Valuation: Trailing PE of 23.14x and PEG of 3.23x suggest the stock is not cheap relative to its growth rate. The forward PE of 14.52x is more reasonable but still implies high earnings growth expectations that may not materialize.
- Analyst Target Range Wide: The target price range spans from $64 (low) to $100 (high), a $36 spread indicating significant uncertainty. The low target implies 25.3% downside, reflecting concerns about competitive pressures and healthcare spending.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: While BTIG upgraded to Buy, UBS, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley maintain Neutral or Underweight stances. This lack of consensus suggests the stock's near-term prospects are uncertain, and the average target upside is only 4.15%.
- Thin Net Margins: Net margin is only 3.02% (Q1 2026), typical for distribution but vulnerable to cost inflation and pricing pressure. Operating margin of 5.40% is below the prior year's 6.38%, indicating margin compression despite revenue growth.
HSIC Technical Analysis
Henry Schein's stock is in a clear uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +26.76% and a current price of $85.75, which is near the top of its 52-week range (61.95–89.34), trading at approximately 96% of that range. This positioning near the highs indicates strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the stock may be overextended in the short term. The 6-month price change of +13.61% and the 3-month change of +15.99% confirm the sustained upward trajectory, with the stock consistently making higher lows since its May 2026 low.
Beta
0.81
0.81x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$62-$89
Price range past year
Annual Return
+27.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HSIC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.1% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +16.3% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +14.9% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +27.3% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +12.6% | +11.1% |
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HSIC Fundamental Analysis
Henry Schein's revenue trajectory is positive, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $3.368 billion, a 6.31% year-over-year increase, and a sequential acceleration from the previous quarter's $3.437 billion (which was a 7.7% YoY growth). Over the past four quarters, revenue has grown from $3.168 billion in Q1 2025 to $3.368 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a steady upward trend. The growth is driven by the Global Distribution segment, which generated $2.953 billion in revenue, while the Technology segment contributed $221 million, showing the core distribution business as the primary growth engine.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
31.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$431000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HSIC Overvalued?
Given that Henry Schein is profitable, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 23.14x, while the forward PE is 14.52x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. This gap suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is consistent with the company's recent margin expansion and analyst estimates for EPS of $6.71 in the next fiscal year. The PEG ratio of 3.23x indicates that the stock is not cheap relative to its expected growth rate, but the forward PE is more reasonable.
PE
23.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~26x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14, which is moderate but could strain if interest rates rise; interest expense of $39M in Q1 2026 is manageable but reduces net income. The company's net margin of 3.02% is thin, making it sensitive to cost inflation or pricing pressure from competitors. Free cash flow of $431M TTM is positive but could be impacted by working capital needs, and the payout ratio of 0% means no dividend cushion for investors.