LBRT

Liberty Energy Inc.

$27.35

-2.56%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Liberty Energy Inc. is an integrated energy services and technology company focused on providing hydraulic fracturing services and complementary technologies to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies across the U.S. and Canada. The company is a significant player in the competitive oilfield services sector, distinguishing itself with a focus on lower-emission completion technologies and a vertically integrated model that includes proppant delivery and field gas processing. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's dramatic recovery and the company's reported earnings beat in late April 2026, which signaled a potential operational turnaround and has driven significant market attention, though this is set against a backdrop of ongoing volatility in energy markets and geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices.

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LBRT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $27.35
Average Target $27.35
High Target $31.4525
Low Target $23.247500000000002

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Liberty Energy Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $35.55 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$35.55

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$22 - $36

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage for Liberty Energy is limited, with only two analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a mid-cap energy services company. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, appears cautiously optimistic with a mix of 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Hold' ratings from major firms like Stifel, Barclays, and Citigroup as of late 2024. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $8.25 billion, with a high estimate of $8.63 billion and a low of $7.93 billion, indicating a relatively tight range of expectations. The implied upside or downside to a consensus price target cannot be calculated as the provided data lacks an average target price. The wide range between the high and low revenue estimates ($8.63B vs. $7.93B) reflects moderate uncertainty around the company's near-term revenue trajectory. The high estimate likely assumes a stabilization or recovery in fracking activity and pricing, while the low estimate may factor in continued competitive pressures and volatile energy prices. The minimal number of analysts (2) covering the stock suggests it may be less followed by the institutional investment community, which can contribute to higher volatility and potential mispricing opportunities due to less efficient price discovery.

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Bulls vs Bears: LBRT Investment Factors

The evidence for LBRT presents a classic battle between a powerful cyclical recovery narrative and harsh, current operational realities. The bull case is anchored in a spectacular 120%+ one-year price surge, a clean balance sheet, and discounted sales-based valuation, suggesting the worst is priced in. The bear case, however, is grounded in concrete, deteriorating fundamentals: a catastrophic margin collapse in the latest quarter, an ominous forward P/E of 79x, and weak cash flow. Currently, the bear side holds stronger evidence as the recent financial deterioration is severe and current. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the late-April 2026 earnings beat marks the beginning of a sustained operational turnaround that can reverse the margin collapse, or if it was a fleeting positive data point in a longer-term downcycle for oilfield services profitability.

Bullish

  • Powerful Long-Term Uptrend: The stock has gained 120.89% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the SPY's 22.86% return. This surge, culminating in a 52-week high of $34.48, signals a strong recovery narrative and significant investor confidence in the company's turnaround potential.
  • Strong Balance Sheet & Low Beta: With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 and a current ratio of 1.22, the company maintains a conservative financial structure. A beta of 0.528 indicates the stock has historically been about half as volatile as the market, offering a measure of relative stability within the cyclical energy sector.
  • Attractive Valuation on Sales Basis: The stock trades at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 0.75 and an EV/Sales of 1.36, which represents a discount to its revenue base. This is typical for cyclical service companies and provides a margin of safety if revenue stabilizes or grows.
  • Positive Analyst Sentiment Post-Earnings: Following a reported earnings beat in late April 2026, analyst sentiment turned cautiously optimistic with 'Buy' and 'Overweight' ratings from major firms. This event was a key catalyst for the stock's recent surge and suggests a potential inflection point in operational performance.

Bearish

  • Severe Recent Margin Collapse: Q4 2025 gross margin collapsed to 11.43% from 20.61% in Q3, and operating margin was a thin 2.03%. Net income fell 73.6% sequentially to $13.69 million, indicating intense pricing pressure or cost inflation that is crippling profitability.
  • Forward P/E Signals Earnings Cliff: The forward P/E ratio is 78.99x, vastly higher than the trailing P/E of 20.22x. This extreme multiple implies the market is pricing in a severe earnings contraction over the next twelve months, aligning with the recent margin deterioration.
  • Weak & Volatile Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a modest $14.1 million. In Q4 2025, operating cash flow of $195.4M was insufficient to cover capital expenditures of $205.4M, resulting in negative quarterly FCF. This raises questions about the sustainability of capital returns and reinvestment.
  • Recent Technical Correction & Momentum Divergence: The stock is down 13.77% over the past month, showing significant negative relative strength (-13.69%) versus the SPY. This sharp pullback from the highs suggests profit-taking and shifting sentiment, potentially foreshadowing a deeper correction after the massive rally.

LBRT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained long-term uptrend, evidenced by its 1-year price change of +120.89%, significantly outperforming the SPY's 22.86% gain. As of the latest close of $28.87, the price is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($9.90 to $34.48), approximately 84% of the way toward its high, indicating strong momentum but also positioning the stock in a zone where it may be susceptible to a pullback or consolidation after such a sharp advance. The stock's beta of 0.528 suggests it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market over the measured period, which is notable given the cyclical nature of its industry. Recent momentum has diverged sharply from the long-term trend, showing significant deceleration and correction. The stock is down 13.77% over the past month and 4.47% over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the SPY's gains of -0.08% and +12.0% over the same periods, respectively. This negative relative strength of -13.69% over one month indicates the stock is undergoing a pronounced short-term correction, likely driven by profit-taking after its massive rally and potentially shifting sentiment on near-term energy service demand. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $34.48 (resistance) and the 52-week low of $9.90 (support). A decisive breakout above the $34.48 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below key intermediate support around $28 (recent lows) could open the door for a deeper correction. The stock's low beta of 0.528 implies it has exhibited about half the volatility of the market, which, combined with the recent sharp pullback, suggests the current sell-off may be more stock-specific or sector-driven rather than a broad market event.

Beta

0.53

0.53x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-26.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$10-$34

Price range past year

Annual Return

+104.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLBRT ReturnS&P 500
1m-17.0%+1.5%
3m-13.6%+13.4%
6m+58.5%+10.9%
1y+104.3%+24.5%
ytd+44.9%+10.0%

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LBRT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been positive but shows signs of deceleration and volatility on a quarterly basis. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $1.04 billion, representing a 10.09% year-over-year increase. However, examining the sequential trend from the provided quarters (Q1 2025 to Q4 2025: $977M, $1.04B, $947M, $1.04B) reveals an inconsistent pattern, with a notable dip in Q3 2025. This suggests the company's top-line growth is choppy and heavily influenced by the cyclicality of fracking activity and customer spending patterns. Profitability metrics have deteriorated significantly in the most recent quarter, raising concerns. While the company reported net income of $13.69 million in Q4 2025, this represents a steep 73.6% sequential decline from Q3's $43.06 million. More strikingly, the gross margin collapsed to 11.43% (annualized from key metrics) from 20.61% in the prior quarter, and the operating margin was a thin 2.03%. This severe margin compression indicates intense pricing pressure, rising costs, or operational inefficiencies that have materially impacted earnings power. The balance sheet appears reasonably healthy with a manageable debt level, but cash flow generation is weak. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at a conservative 0.42, and the current ratio is a solid 1.22, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. However, free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is a modest $14.1 million, and the most recent quarterly operating cash flow of $195.4 million was more than offset by capital expenditures of $205.4 million, resulting in negative free cash flow. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 7.11% is relatively low, suggesting inefficient use of shareholder capital in the recent period.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.20%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$14105000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

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Valuation Analysis: Is LBRT Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 20.22x, while the forward P/E based on estimated EPS is significantly higher at 78.99x. This substantial gap suggests the market is anticipating a sharp drop in earnings over the next twelve months, which aligns with the margin compression observed in the latest quarterly results. Compared to typical Oil & Gas Equipment & Services peers, Liberty's trailing P/E of 20.22x appears reasonable, but its forward P/E of 78.99x indicates a severe earnings contraction is priced in. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 0.75 and EV/Sales of 1.36 suggest the market is valuing the company at a discount to its revenue base, which is common for cyclical service companies during perceived downturns. The low P/B ratio of 1.44 further supports a valuation not demanding premium multiples. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated widely with the energy cycle. The current trailing P/E of 20.22x sits below the historical high observed in Q1 2025 (31.87x) but above the low single-digits seen during peak profitability periods in 2023 (e.g., 3.79x in Q2 2023). This positioning in the mid-range of its own historical band suggests the market is balancing recent operational challenges against the long-term cyclical recovery potential, without assigning extreme optimism or pessimism.

PE

20.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -123x~55x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

5.2x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks are pronounced and center on collapsing profitability and weak cash generation. The gross margin plummeted from 20.61% to 11.43% quarter-over-quarter, and operating margin is a razor-thin 2.03%, indicating the business model is under severe strain from either pricing competition or cost inflation. Free cash flow is weak at $14.1M TTM, and the company generated negative FCF in Q4 2025 as CapEx outstripped operating cash flow. This raises liquidity risks for dividends (current yield 1.82%) and reinvestment. The low Return on Equity of 7.11% suggests inefficient use of capital.

Market & Competitive Risks stem from its cyclical industry and current valuation positioning. As an oilfield services provider, LBRT is directly exposed to volatile oil prices and E&P capital expenditure cycles, which are currently under pressure from geopolitical tensions and Fed policy. The forward P/E of 78.99x, while reflecting expected earnings decline, leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if the anticipated earnings recovery is delayed. Limited analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The recent 13.77% one-month drop demonstrates high stock-specific volatility despite its low market beta.

Worst-Case Scenario involves a prolonged downturn in North American fracking activity coupled with sustained margin pressure, validating the high forward P/E's pessimistic outlook. In this scenario, revenue could trend toward the analyst low estimate of $7.93B, and margins could fail to recover, leading to minimal or negative earnings. The stock could re-test its 52-week low of $9.90, representing a potential loss of approximately -66% from the current price of $28.87. A more realistic severe downside, considering the recent correction and technical support, might be a 35-40% decline to the $17-$19 range, which aligns with prices from late 2025 before the earnings-driven surge.