Macerich
MAC
$23.49
-7.48%
The Macerich Company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a portfolio of premium regional malls and other retail properties across the United States, with 27 consolidated and 10 unconsolidated malls totaling 39.2 million square feet. As a leading owner of Class A shopping centers, Macerich differentiates itself through its focus on high-quality, high-productivity assets, evidenced by average sales of $899 per square foot. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic repositioning amid a challenging retail environment, with recent capital raises via stock offerings to strengthen its balance sheet and fund future growth, while maintaining a consistent dividend to signal stability. The stock has seen a significant rally over the past year, reflecting optimism about the recovery of premium retail and the company's operational improvements.…
MAC
Macerich
$23.49
Related headlines
MAC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Macerich's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.19 and implied upside of +11.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$26.19
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$19 - $30
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust with 16 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 2.06 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $26.19, implying a modest upside of 1.4% from the current price of $25.84. The target range is $19.00 to $30.00, with the low target suggesting a potential downside of 26.5% and the high target implying an upside of 16.1%. The wide spread indicates high uncertainty about the company's future, likely due to the volatile retail environment and the recent stock offering. The consensus leans bullish, but the small upside to the average target suggests that the stock may be fairly valued at current levels.
Bulls vs Bears: MAC Investment Factors
Macerich presents a mixed picture: strong operational metrics (high sales per square foot, positive operating margin) and impressive stock momentum, but marred by unprofitability, high leverage, and a rich valuation. The bull case rests on the recovery of premium retail and the company's ability to grow earnings, while the bear case highlights the risk of continued losses and dilution. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the strong price action and analyst support, but the key tension is whether the company can translate its operational strengths into sustainable net income, which would justify the high valuation. If earnings fail to improve, the stock could see significant downside.
Bullish
- Strong price momentum and relative strength: MAC has surged 54.6% over the past year, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.2% gain. Its relative strength over 1, 3, 6 months, and YTD is consistently positive, indicating sustained investor confidence and a strong uptrend.
- Premium mall portfolio with high productivity: Macerich owns Class A malls with average sales of $899 per square foot, a key metric for retail REITs. This high productivity supports tenant demand and rental pricing power, underpinning the company's competitive position.
- Core operations profitable despite net loss: Gross margin is 38.2% and operating margin is 16.5%, showing that core property operations are profitable. The net loss is driven by high interest expenses and depreciation, typical for leveraged REITs, but the underlying business generates positive cash flow.
- Analyst consensus is Buy with upside potential: With 16 analysts, the consensus recommendation is Buy (mean 2.06). The average target price of $26.19 implies a modest 1.4% upside, but the high target of $30.00 suggests a potential 16.1% gain, reflecting optimism about the retail recovery.
Bearish
- Unprofitable with negative net margin: MAC's net margin is -19.4% and trailing EPS is -$0.04, indicating the company is currently losing money. The negative ROE of -8.05% highlights that shareholder equity is being eroded, which is a red flag for investors seeking profitability.
- Extremely high forward valuation: The forward PE is 234.9, implying the market expects massive earnings growth that may not materialize. The PEG ratio of 9.47 suggests the stock is overvalued relative to its growth prospects, making it vulnerable to multiple compression.
- High leverage and debt burden: Debt-to-equity is 2.12, and EV/Sales is 11.27, indicating significant leverage. High interest expenses are a major drag on net income, and any rise in interest rates could further pressure earnings and valuation.
- Stock offering dilutes shareholders: In June 2026, Macerich announced a public offering of common stock, which dilutes existing shareholders. While it raises capital to strengthen the balance sheet, it also signals potential financial strain and can pressure the stock price.
MAC Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +54.6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.2% over the same period. The current price of $25.84 is near the upper end of its 52-week range, sitting at approximately 97% of the range (calculated as (25.84 - 15.94) / (26.68 - 15.94) = 0.97), indicating strong momentum and investor confidence. This positioning near the highs suggests the stock is in a bullish phase, though it may be vulnerable to short-term pullbacks due to overextension.
Beta
2.07
2.07x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$27
Price range past year
Annual Return
+38.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MAC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.8% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +7.4% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +19.7% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +38.1% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +26.8% | +12.7% |
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MAC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue data is not available in the provided inputs, but the company's market cap of $4.74 billion and PS ratio of 4.67 imply annualized revenue of approximately $1.01 billion. The estimated revenue for the next fiscal year is $1.248 billion, suggesting a growth rate of about 23% if current revenue is $1.01 billion, though this is speculative. The company's net margin is -19.4%, indicating it is currently unprofitable, with a trailing EPS of -$0.04. However, the gross margin of 38.2% and operating margin of 16.5% suggest that the core operations are profitable, but high interest expenses or depreciation are dragging net income down. The negative ROE of -8.05% reflects the net loss, but the ROA of 1.37% indicates that the company is generating positive returns on its assets, which is typical for REITs that use high leverage.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is MAC Overvalued?
Given the negative trailing EPS, the PE ratio is not meaningful, so I selected the PS ratio as the primary valuation metric. The current PS ratio is 4.67, which is higher than the industry average for retail REITs (typically around 5-6x), but the forward PE of 234.9 is extremely high, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the future. The EV/Sales ratio of 11.27 is also elevated, reflecting the company's high debt levels. Compared to the sector, MAC trades at a premium, but this may be justified by its premium mall portfolio and strong sales per square foot. Historically, the stock's PS ratio has ranged from 2x to 6x over the past few years, and the current level is near the higher end, suggesting that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for a retail recovery.
PE
-24.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
24.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. The company is unprofitable with a net margin of -19.4% and negative EPS, indicating that interest expenses and depreciation are overwhelming operating profits. The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12 and EV/Sales of 11.27 highlight a heavy debt load, which increases vulnerability to rising interest rates and could lead to cash flow constraints. The recent stock offering dilutes shareholders, and the payout ratio of -0.95 suggests that dividends are not covered by earnings, potentially forcing cuts if cash flow deteriorates further. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.09 is extremely low, indicating potential liquidity issues in the short term.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression, as the stock trades at a forward PE of 234.9 and a PS ratio of 4.67, which is near the high end of its historical range. The beta of 2.06 makes the stock highly sensitive to market swings, and any negative sentiment towards retail REITs could lead to sharp declines. The retail sector faces ongoing challenges from e-commerce and changing consumer habits, which could reduce mall traffic and tenant demand. Regulatory risks include potential changes in property tax laws or zoning regulations, while the recent stock offering may signal that the company is struggling to raise capital through other means, adding to investor uncertainty.
In a worst-case scenario, if the retail environment deteriorates further and Macerich fails to improve profitability, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $15.94, representing a -38.3% decline from the current price of $25.84. This could be triggered by a combination of rising interest rates, tenant bankruptcies, and a broader economic recession, leading to reduced rental income and increased vacancies. The high leverage would amplify the impact, potentially forcing asset sales or dividend cuts. Investors could face significant losses in this adverse scenario, making the stock a high-risk investment.