MGM Resorts International
MGM
$47.15
-0.23%
MGM Resorts International is a leading global hospitality and entertainment company operating a portfolio of destination resorts, including iconic Las Vegas Strip properties like the Bellagio, MGM Grand, and Mandalay Bay, as well as regional assets in the US and a majority stake in MGM China. The company is the dominant resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip, controlling approximately one-fourth of all guest rooms in that market, which drives over half of its EBITDAR. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly dominated by a potential buyout, with a major shareholder's offer in early June 2026 validating the company's underlying value and sparking a significant stock surge as the market anticipates a higher bid, while the core business continues to benefit from robust Las Vegas demand and the growth of its digital sports and i-gaming segment.…
MGM
MGM Resorts International
$47.15
Related headlines
MGM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MGM Resorts International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $61.30 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$61.30
11 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
11
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $61
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for MGM is substantial, with 11 firms providing estimates. The consensus sentiment appears mixed, as evidenced by recent institutional rating actions. In early 2026, there were both downgrades (Morgan Stanley to Underweight, Barclays to Equal Weight) and reaffirmations of positive ratings (Macquarie Outperform, Stifel Buy). This divergence reflects uncertainty around the standalone operational outlook versus the potential buyout premium. The average analyst EPS estimate for the forward period is $2.74, with a range from $2.29 to $3.51. The wide target price range implied by these EPS estimates and varying multiples signals significant disagreement on the company's fair value, exacerbated by the recent buyout offer. The high-end target likely assumes a successful acquisition at a significant premium or robust execution on digital and international growth, while the low-end target may price in a failed deal and a reversion to pre-offer trading levels based on cyclical earnings. The wide spread in analyst views underscores the heightened uncertainty and binary outcome currently surrounding the stock.
Bulls vs Bears: MGM Investment Factors
Overall, MGM has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Buyout Offer Validates Intrinsic Value: A major shareholder's buyout offer in early June 2026 has triggered a 16% single-day stock surge, confirming that sophisticated investors see significant underlying asset value not reflected in the standalone stock price. The market is now trading above the initial offer price, signaling strong belief in a higher bid or long-term upside.
- Dominant Las Vegas Strip Position: MGM controls approximately one-fourth of all guest rooms on the Las Vegas Strip, which drives over 56% of its EBITDAR. This entrenched market share provides a durable competitive moat and significant operating leverage to robust tourism demand, as evidenced by Q4 2025 revenue growth of 5.95% YoY.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.64 billion, providing ample liquidity for shareholder returns and debt management. This is demonstrated by $511 million in stock repurchases in Q4 2025, showcasing capital return discipline.
- Forward PE Suggests Earnings Recovery: The forward PE of 20.65x is reasonable and less than half the trailing PE of 46.86x, indicating the market expects a significant earnings rebound. Analyst consensus forward EPS is $2.74, implying strong profit growth from the current depressed trailing EPS of $0.02.
Bearish
MGM Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, having gained 49.86% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 27.04% gain. As of the latest close at $47.94, the price is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($29.19 to $51.59), positioning it at approximately 87% of that range, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 1.285 confirms it is approximately 29% more volatile than the broader market, which is a critical factor for risk management given the recent explosive price action. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with the stock surging 26.46% over the past month and 34.78% over the past three months, far outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 4.6% and 12.6%. This sharp acceleration from the longer-term trend, culminating in a massive 16% single-day spike on June 1st, is a direct reaction to the buyout offer and signals a potential climax run, though it also raises the risk of a sharp pullback if deal expectations are not met. Key technical levels are clear: the 52-week high of $51.59 serves as immediate resistance, with a breakout above potentially signaling further speculative fervor, while the 52-week low of $29.19 represents a major support level. The stock's high beta and recent parabolic move suggest elevated volatility; a failure to hold above the recent breakout zone could see a swift retracement towards the mid-$30s, which was a consolidation area prior to the news.
Beta
1.31
1.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$29-$52
Price range past year
Annual Return
+45.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MGM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.6% | -0.1% |
| 3m | +29.9% | +9.0% |
| 6m | +25.9% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +45.2% | +22.9% |
| ytd | +29.2% | +8.1% |
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MGM Fundamental Analysis
MGM's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $4.61 billion representing a 5.95% year-over-year increase. However, quarterly performance has been volatile; revenue grew from $4.27B in Q1 2025 to $4.61B in Q4, but Q3 2025 saw a sequential dip to $4.25B. The core Casino segment, generating $2.57B in the latest period, remains the primary driver, supported by Food & Beverage ($749M), Occupancy ($858M), and Entertainment/Retail ($423M). Profitability is inconsistent, with the company posting a strong Q4 net income of $294 million (net margin of 6.38%) and gross margin of 44.03%, but also reporting a significant net loss of -$285 million in Q3 2025. The trailing twelve-month net margin is a thin 1.18%, highlighting the cyclical and operational leverage inherent in the resort business. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed but shows strength in cash generation. The company maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.23 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 23.1. Most notably, it generated substantial free cash flow of $1.64 billion over the trailing twelve months, providing ample liquidity for capital returns (evidenced by $511M in stock repurchases in Q4) and debt management. Return on equity stands at 8.49%, indicating moderate efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.05%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.44%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MGM Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is elevated at 46.86x, while the forward PE is a more reasonable 20.65x, indicating the market expects a significant earnings recovery in the coming year. This large gap suggests current earnings are depressed relative to future expectations, likely factoring in post-pandemic recovery and digital growth. Compared to sector averages, MGM trades at a premium on a sales basis but appears more reasonably valued on a forward earnings basis. Its Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.55 is below the typical resort/casino industry average (often above 1.0-2.0x), suggesting the market values its revenue stream conservatively. However, its EV/EBITDA of 37.1x is extremely high, reflecting the market's focus on its asset-heavy model and the premium embedded due to buyout speculation. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated wildly. The current trailing PE of 46.86x is near the top of its recent historical range, which has seen lows in negative territory during loss-making quarters and highs above 48x. Trading near historical valuation peaks implies the market is pricing in highly optimistic scenarios, either a successful buyout at a premium or a sharp fundamental earnings rebound, leaving little room for disappointment.
PE
46.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -258x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
37.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

