The Mosaic Company
MOS
$23.35
+5.04%
The Mosaic Company is a global leader in the production and marketing of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, operating primarily in the agricultural inputs industry. With phosphate rock mines in the US and potash mines in Canada, along with a significant fertilizer distribution network in Brazil, Mosaic is one of the world's largest integrated fertilizer producers, distinguished by its scale and vertical integration. The current investor narrative centers on the potential margin expansion from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has disrupted global fertilizer supply and could benefit North American producers like Mosaic, while the company also navigates volatile commodity prices and a recent quarterly loss.…
MOS
The Mosaic Company
$23.35
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MOS Today?
We rate MOS as a Hold, with a cautious tilt toward buying on weakness. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $27.56, implying 27.5% upside, but the recent fundamental deterioration warrants caution. The thesis is that Mosaic is a cyclical play on fertilizer prices, and the current low valuation offers a favorable risk/reward if the cycle turns, but the timing is uncertain.
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MOS 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The valuation is attractive, but the fundamental deterioration is severe, and the timing of a recovery is uncertain. The Hormuz closure provides a potential catalyst, but its impact is speculative. If Q2 earnings show margin improvement, the stance would upgrade to bullish; if the company cuts its dividend or losses widen, it would downgrade to bearish. The wide target range reflects this uncertainty, and the stock is likely to remain volatile.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Mosaic Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.26 and implied upside of +16.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.26
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+16.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$19 - $35
Analyst target range
With 19 analysts covering Mosaic, the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 2.25 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $27.56, implying an upside of 27.5% from the current price of $21.61. The target range is $19.00 to $35.00, with the low target near the 52-week low and the high target reflecting optimism about a recovery. Recent ratings actions show a mix: RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform, while JP Morgan remains Underweight, indicating divergent views on the fertilizer cycle. The wide spread between low and high targets suggests high uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of a recovery in fertilizer markets.
Bulls vs Bears: MOS Investment Factors
Mosaic presents a classic cyclical value trap versus recovery play. The bull case rests on a low valuation (PS 0.63x, forward PE 12.9x), a potential margin windfall from the Hormuz closure, and analyst consensus Buy with 27.5% upside. However, the bear case is equally compelling: the company just posted a net loss with gross margins at 7.86%, negative free cash flow, and a stock in a steep downtrend. The single most important tension is whether the Hormuz disruption and eventual fertilizer price recovery will materialize quickly enough to reverse the margin collapse. If prices recover, the stock could re-rate significantly; if not, it risks falling to the 52-week low. Currently, the bearish evidence from the latest quarter outweighs the bullish narrative, but the low valuation and potential catalysts tilt the risk/reward slightly positive for patient investors.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus Buy with 27.5% upside: 19 analysts rate MOS a Buy with a mean recommendation of 2.25 and an average target of $27.56, implying 27.5% upside from the current $21.61. The high target of $35.00 suggests significant recovery potential if fertilizer prices rebound.
- Hormuz closure boosts North American producers: The Strait of Hormuz closure has stranded a third of global fertilizer supply, creating a margin opportunity for North American producers with local inputs. Mosaic's US phosphate and Canadian potash mines are well-positioned to capture higher prices and volumes.
- Low valuation with forward PE of 12.9x: The forward PE of 12.86x is modest for a cyclical recovery play, and the PEG ratio of 0.068 implies the market expects strong earnings growth. The PS ratio of 0.63x is near historical lows, suggesting the stock is priced for a prolonged downturn.
- Revenue growth of 14.4% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.39% YoY to $2.998 billion, driven by higher volumes. This top-line momentum could translate into margin recovery if fertilizer prices stabilize or rise.
Bearish
- Q1 2026 net loss of -$257.6M: The company swung to a net loss of -$257.6 million in Q1 2026 from a profit of $238.1 million a year earlier. This severe profitability deterioration reflects collapsed margins and raises questions about the timing of recovery.
- Gross margin collapsed to 7.86%: Gross margin fell to 7.86% from 18.63% in Q1 2025, a dramatic decline. Operating income was -$372.9 million, indicating the company is selling below its cost structure at current fertilizer prices.
- Negative free cash flow of -$489.3M TTM: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$489.3 million, meaning the company is burning cash. This could pressure the dividend or force additional debt if the downturn persists.
- Stock down 32.7% over 1 year: MOS has fallen 32.68% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 53.05 percentage points. The stock is near its 52-week low of $19.80, reflecting persistent selling pressure and weak investor sentiment.
MOS Technical Analysis
Mosaic's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -32.68% and a 6-month change of -27.12%. The current price of $21.61 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 11% above the 52-week low of $19.80 and 42% below the 52-week high of $36.99. This positioning near the lows suggests bearish sentiment and potential value, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of buying interest.
Beta
0.82
0.82x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$20-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
-28.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MOS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.3% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +3.7% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -20.7% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -28.0% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -6.7% | +11.8% |
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MOS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in Q1 2026 was $2.998 billion, up 14.39% year-over-year, but the company reported a net loss of -$257.6 million, a sharp reversal from the $238.1 million profit in Q1 2025. Gross margin collapsed to 7.86% from 18.63% a year earlier, and operating income was -$372.9 million, indicating severe margin compression. The revenue growth was driven by higher volumes, but profitability deteriorated due to lower fertilizer prices and higher costs, highlighting the cyclicality of the business.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
7.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-489300000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MOS Overvalued?
Given the negative trailing earnings, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric, currently at 0.63x, which is low compared to historical levels. The forward PE of 12.86x suggests the market expects earnings to recover, but the PEG ratio of 0.068 implies significant growth expectations. Compared to the industry average PS of 2.70x (from historical data), Mosaic trades at a 77% discount, reflecting its depressed margins and cyclical downturn. Historically, the PS ratio has ranged from 2.70x to 6.21x over the past five years, and the current 0.63x is near the bottom, indicating the stock is priced for a prolonged downturn or potential value trap.
PE
14.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~12x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are elevated. Mosaic's Q1 2026 net loss of -$257.6 million and negative operating income of -$372.9 million indicate severe margin compression, with gross margin at 7.86% versus 18.63% a year ago. The company is burning cash with TTM free cash flow of -$489.3 million, which could threaten the dividend (yield 3.67%) or force additional debt. Debt-to-equity is moderate at 0.44, but the current ratio of 1.32 suggests adequate liquidity, though continued losses could erode this buffer. Revenue concentration in cyclical fertilizer markets amplifies earnings volatility, as seen in the swing from $238.1 million profit to a loss in one year.