MSCI
MSCI
$544.56
-5.67%
MSCI, Inc. is a leading global provider of critical decision support tools and services for the investment community, operating within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry. The company is a dominant player in financial indexing, analytics, and ESG data, best known for its flagship MSCI indexes which benchmark over $18 trillion in assets and anchor a massive ecosystem of ETFs. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain its premium growth and profitability amidst a volatile market, with particular focus on the resilience of its high-margin, recurring subscription revenue model and its strategic positioning in the fast-growing ESG and climate analytics segments, which are driving ongoing debates about its valuation premium.…
MSCI
MSCI
$544.56
Related headlines
MSCI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MSCI's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $707.93 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$707.93
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$436 - $708
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for MSCI is limited but appears to be from reputable institutions, with data indicating coverage from 5 analysts. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional actions from firms like Raymond James (Strong Buy), Evercore ISI (Outperform), Barclays (Overweight), JP Morgan (Overweight), and UBS (Buy), with Wells Fargo maintaining a neutral 'Equal Weight' rating. The average estimated EPS for the forward period is $31.67, with a range from $30.90 to $32.44, indicating tight clustering of expectations and high conviction in near-term earnings power. The target price range and implied upside are not explicitly provided in the dataset, but the pattern of ratings suggests institutional analysts generally view the stock favorably. The limited number of covering analysts (5) is notable for a company of MSCI's market cap (~$44 billion) and may indicate it is under-followed relative to its size and importance, which can sometimes lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The recent rating actions show stability, with no downgrades in the provided data and several reiterations of bullish stances following earnings reports, reinforcing the positive institutional view grounded in the company's resilient financial model.
MSCI Technical Analysis
MSCI's stock is in a volatile but consolidating phase, having experienced a significant correction earlier in the year before a partial recovery. The stock's 1-year price change of 6.89% significantly underperforms the broader market's 24.99% gain, indicating relative weakness. As of the latest close of $581.19, the price is trading approximately 31% above its 52-week low of $501.08 but 10% below its 52-week high of $644.68, positioning it in the middle-to-upper portion of its annual range, suggesting it has recovered from lows but faces overhead resistance. Recent short-term momentum shows modest positive signs, with a 1-month price change of 0.61% and a 3-month change of 5.17%, indicating stabilization and a tentative recovery attempt after the sharp decline seen in February. However, this recent uptick is weak compared to the S&P 500's 15.14% gain over three months, as evidenced by a relative strength of -9.97, highlighting continued underperformance. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $644.68 as major resistance and the 52-week low of $501.08 as critical support. A decisive breakout above $645 could signal a resumption of the longer-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $500 would indicate a failure of the recent consolidation and potentially lead to further downside. The stock's beta of 1.226 confirms it is approximately 23% more volatile than the market, which is an important consideration for risk management given its history of sharp moves, such as the -18.07% maximum drawdown captured in the data.
Beta
1.23
1.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$501-$645
Price range past year
Annual Return
-4.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MSCI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.5% | -2.2% |
| 3m | +4.0% | +15.8% |
| 6m | -6.9% | +6.4% |
| 1y | -4.5% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -3.7% | +7.7% |
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MSCI Fundamental Analysis
MSCI demonstrates a robust and accelerating revenue growth trajectory, underpinned by its high-margin, subscription-based model. For Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $822.5 million, representing a 10.63% year-over-year growth rate. This growth is consistent across recent quarters, with sequential revenue increases from $745.8 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 figure, indicating sustained demand. The Index segment is the primary growth driver, contributing $479.1 million in the latest period, significantly larger than the Analytics segment's $182.3 million. The company is highly profitable with expanding margins. Q4 2025 net income was $284.7 million, translating to a robust net margin of 34.6%. Gross margin remains exceptionally high at 82.57%, consistent with the company's asset-light, software-like business model. Operating margin for the quarter was a strong 56.37%, demonstrating significant operating leverage and efficiency. The trend shows stable to slightly expanding profitability, with net margins hovering in the high-30% to low-40% range across the presented quarters. MSCI possesses a very strong balance sheet and cash flow profile, though its reported equity is negative, distorting some ratios. The company generated substantial free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow of $1.55 billion. It actively returns capital to shareholders, evidenced by $906.8 million in stock repurchases and $135.1 million in dividends paid in Q4 2025 alone. The current ratio of 0.90 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, while the return on assets (ROA) of 20.55% is excellent, showcasing highly efficient use of assets. The negative debt-to-equity ratio of -2.39 is an accounting artifact from share buybacks and does not reflect a distressed balance sheet; the company's strong and consistent operating cash flow of $501.1 million in Q4 comfortably covers its obligations.
Quarterly Revenue
$822528000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.10%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.82%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MSCI Overvalued?
Given MSCI's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 36.82x and a forward PE of 25.82x based on analyst estimates. The significant gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects strong earnings growth, with forward EPS estimates averaging $31.67, suggesting a year-ahead earnings growth expectation embedded in the valuation. Compared to industry averages, MSCI trades at a significant premium. Its trailing PE of 36.8x and forward PE of 25.8x are well above typical market multiples, reflecting its status as a high-quality, high-growth franchise within financial services data. This premium is justified by its exceptional fundamentals: gross margins above 82%, net margins around 38%, and a dominant competitive position in indexing and ESG analytics that commands pricing power and creates high barriers to entry. Historically, MSCI's valuation has been consistently elevated. The current trailing PE of 36.8x sits within its recent historical range, as seen in quarterly data points like 38.9x at the end of 2025 and 33.6x in Q3 2025. While not at the peak of its historical band (which has seen figures above 40x), it remains towards the higher end, indicating the market continues to price in optimistic expectations for sustained growth and profitability, leaving little margin for error if execution falters.
PE
36.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~74x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple

