Netflix, Inc.
NFLX
$73.83
+0.63%
Netflix is a global streaming entertainment service that offers a vast library of TV shows, movies, documentaries, and original content to over 300 million subscribers worldwide. As the dominant player in the streaming industry, Netflix boasts the largest subscriber base in both the U.S. and international markets, with a business model centered on subscription fees and a growing ad-supported tier. The current investor narrative revolves around concerns over subscriber growth deceleration and intensifying competition, which have driven the stock down 24% in the first half of 2026, though strong fundamentals and a recent acquisition of Radford Studio Center signal strategic moves to bolster content production and long-term growth.…
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
$73.83
Related headlines
NFLX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Netflix, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $95.98 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$95.98
15 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
15
covering this stock
Price Range
$59 - $96
Analyst target range
Netflix is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. Recent ratings include multiple upgrades: CFRA upgraded from Hold to Buy, B of A Securities rates Buy, and JP Morgan upgraded from Neutral to Overweight. The average EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $6.22, with a range of $6.08 to $6.36, and average revenue estimate of $73.9 billion. While specific price targets are not provided, the consensus recommendation is Buy, and the implied upside from current levels is positive given the bullish sentiment. The target range, based on EPS estimates and typical multiples, suggests a high target of around $127 (assuming 20x forward EPS) and a low target of $91 (assuming 15x forward EPS). The wide spread reflects uncertainty around subscriber growth and competitive dynamics. The recent upgrades from multiple firms indicate improving sentiment, but the stock's 46% decline from highs suggests that analysts are still cautious about near-term catalysts. The high target assumes successful execution on ad-tier growth and content strategy, while the low target prices in margin compression and market share losses.
NFLX Technical Analysis
Netflix is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price falling 41.3% over the past year and currently trading at $73.37, just 3.5% above its 52-week low of $70.86 and 42.6% below its 52-week high of $127.75. This positioning near the low end of the range suggests bearish sentiment and potential value opportunity, but also risks of further downside if fundamentals deteriorate. The 1-month price change of -10.5% and 3-month change of -28.8% indicate accelerating negative momentum, diverging sharply from the S&P 500's positive returns of +4.1% and +11.1% over the same periods, respectively. This divergence signals that Netflix-specific headwinds, not broad market weakness, are driving the selloff, and the relative strength metrics (1-month -14.6%, 3-month -39.9%) confirm severe underperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $70.86, a break below which could trigger further declines toward the $65 area. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $127.75, and a breakout above that level would signal a reversal of the downtrend. With a beta of 1.517, Netflix is 51.7% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves and requiring careful position sizing.
Beta
1.52
1.52x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-47.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$71-$128
Price range past year
Annual Return
-40.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NFLX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | -30.5% | +7.9% |
| 6m | -16.6% | +8.5% |
| 1y | -40.7% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -18.9% | +9.9% |
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NFLX Fundamental Analysis
Netflix's revenue grew 17.6% year-over-year to $12.05 billion in Q4 2025, accelerating from 9.4% growth in Q4 2024, driven by its ad-supported tier and price increases. The trailing twelve-month revenue reached approximately $45.2 billion, with consistent sequential growth from $9.37 billion in Q1 2024 to $12.05 billion in Q4 2025. The streaming segment remains the sole revenue driver, and the growth trajectory supports the investment case for a mature yet still expanding subscriber base. Profitability is strong, with net income of $2.42 billion in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 20.1%, up from 18.2% in Q4 2024. Gross margin improved to 45.9% from 43.7% a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage and cost controls. Operating margin of 24.5% in Q4 2025 is healthy, though slightly below the 28.2% in Q3 2025, indicating some quarterly fluctuation. Netflix maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 and a current ratio of 1.19, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow was $1.87 billion in Q4 2025, and trailing twelve-month FCF reached $9.46 billion, providing ample internal funding for content investment and share buybacks. ROE of 41.3% underscores efficient capital use, while the absence of dividend payments allows reinvestment into growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$12.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+17.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
45.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$9.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NFLX Overvalued?
Given Netflix's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 36.3x, while the forward P/E is 19.1x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp increase in EPS, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the Communication Services sector average P/E of approximately 22x, Netflix's trailing P/E of 36.3x represents a 65% premium, reflecting its dominant market position and superior growth profile. However, the forward P/E of 19.1x is actually below the sector average, indicating that the market may be pricing in a normalization of growth or that earnings estimates are aggressive. Historically, Netflix's trailing P/E has ranged from 13.5x (Q2 2022) to 109.9x (Q4 2021). The current 36.3x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is not at extreme valuation levels. The PEG ratio of 1.34x implies that the stock is reasonably valued relative to its expected earnings growth rate, though this depends on the accuracy of growth forecasts.
PE
36.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~594x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple

