Nexstar Media Group
NXST
$183.20
+4.35%
Nexstar Media Group is the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, with over 200 stations reaching 220 million people, and also owns NewsNation, a 75% stake in the CW network, and a 31% stake in Food Network and Cooking Channel. As the dominant local broadcaster, it leverages scale and network affiliations (CBS, Fox, NBC, ABC) to generate advertising and distribution revenue. The current investor narrative centers on the pending merger with Tegna, which would expand its station count to over 259 and reach 80% of the U.S. population, while also focusing on margin expansion and debt reduction amid a challenging advertising environment.…
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
$183.20
Related headlines
NXST 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nexstar Media Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $251.63 and implied upside of +37.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$251.63
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+37.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$205 - $290
Analyst target range
Eight analysts cover Nexstar, with a consensus recommendation of Strong Buy (mean 1.375 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $251.63, implying 37.4% upside from the current price of $183.20. The distribution includes 7 Buy/Overweight ratings and 1 Neutral, reflecting bullish sentiment. The target range spans from $205.00 (low) to $290.00 (high). The high target of $290 assumes successful execution of the Tegna merger, margin expansion, and a return to normalized earnings, while the low target of $205 factors in advertising headwinds and integration risks. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from Citigroup (Neutral to Buy on April 10, 2026) and maintained Overweight from Wells Fargo, indicating growing confidence. The wide spread between low and high targets ($85) suggests elevated uncertainty around the merger outcome and advertising trends, but the overall bullish consensus points to significant upside potential if the company executes.
Bulls vs Bears: NXST Investment Factors
Nexstar presents a classic value-versus-value-trap debate. On the bull side, the stock offers a forward P/E of 7.6x, a Strong Buy analyst consensus with 37% upside, and robust free cash flow generation. The bear case highlights a trailing P/E of 66.8x, high leverage, and a stock that has underperformed the market significantly. The single most important tension is whether the forward earnings recovery materializes as expected—if EPS reaches the estimated $21.62, the stock is deeply undervalued; if advertising headwinds persist or the Tegna merger falters, the stock could remain range-bound or decline further. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the compelling forward multiple and analyst support, but the high debt and recent price weakness warrant caution.
Bullish
- Strong Buy Consensus with 37% Upside: Eight analysts rate NXST a Strong Buy (mean 1.375), with an average target of $251.63, implying 37.4% upside from $183.20. The high target of $290 suggests significant potential if the Tegna merger and margin expansion succeed.
- Compelling Forward P/E of 7.6x: The forward P/E of 7.6x is near the bottom of its 5-year historical range (5x-50x), indicating the market expects a sharp earnings rebound. With estimated EPS of $21.62 for 2026, the stock appears deeply undervalued on normalized earnings.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $708 million, providing ample capacity for debt reduction and shareholder returns. In Q1 2026 alone, FCF was $267 million, supporting the balance sheet despite a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x.
- Revenue Growth Accelerating in Q1 2026: Revenue grew 13.1% YoY to $1.396 billion in Q1 2026, driven by distribution revenue of $837 million and advertising of $548 million. This marks a recovery from the prior quarter's decline and shows the core business is stabilizing.
Bearish
- Trailing P/E of 66.8x Signals Caution: The trailing P/E of 66.8x is near the top of its historical range, reflecting depressed earnings over the past year. This multiple implies the stock is expensive on actual earnings, and any delay in the earnings recovery could lead to multiple compression.
- High Debt-to-Equity of 3.32x: With debt-to-equity at 3.32x, Nexstar carries significant leverage. While free cash flow covers interest, rising interest rates or a downturn in advertising could strain the balance sheet, especially with $120 million in quarterly interest expense.
- Revenue Declining in Prior Quarters: Despite Q1 2026 growth, revenue fell from $1.487 billion in Q4 2024 to $1.289 billion in Q4 2025 and $1.198 billion in Q3 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows volatility, with political advertising and retransmission fees providing uneven boosts.
- Stock in Sustained Downtrend vs. Market: NXST has declined 2.3% over the past year versus the S&P 500's 20.9% gain. The stock sits at 21.5% of its 52-week range, near the low of $154.47, indicating persistent selling pressure and negative relative strength of -18.6% over one year.
NXST Technical Analysis
Nexstar is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock declining 2.3% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 20.9% gain. The current price of $183.20 sits at 21.5% of its 52-week range (low $154.47, high $254.30), indicating it is near the bottom of its range and suggesting a potential value opportunity but also reflecting persistent selling pressure. The 1-year price change of +2.3% masks significant intra-year volatility, with the stock reaching a high of $254.30 in February before falling sharply. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month gain of 6.3%, contrasting with a 3-month decline of 7.2% and a 6-month drop of 15.3%. This divergence—positive 1-month but negative 3- and 6-month—suggests a potential short-term bounce within a longer-term downtrend, possibly driven by mean reversion or temporary relief. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is +5.7%, indicating the stock is outperforming the market recently, but the 3-month relative strength of -13.5% confirms the broader weakness. The 52-week low of $154.47 provides key support, while the 52-week high of $254.30 is a major resistance level. A breakout above $254.30 would signal a reversal of the downtrend, while a breakdown below $154.47 could accelerate losses. With a beta of 0.90, Nexstar is slightly less volatile than the market, meaning its moves are less amplified than the S&P 500, which is consistent with its large-cap, defensive broadcasting business model.
Beta
0.90
0.90x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$154-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NXST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +6.3% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -7.2% | +6.3% |
| 6m | -15.3% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +2.3% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -12.3% | +10.7% |
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NXST Fundamental Analysis
Revenue grew 13.1% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to $1.396 billion, driven by distribution service revenue of $837 million and advertising revenue of $548 million. However, the multi-quarter trend shows deceleration: Q4 2025 revenue was $1.289 billion (down from $1.487 billion in Q4 2024), and Q3 2025 revenue was $1.198 billion. The growth is uneven, with political advertising and retransmission fees providing periodic boosts. The company is profitable, with net income of $164 million in Q1 2026, reversing a net loss of $166 million in Q4 2025. Gross margin improved to 47.6% in Q1 2026 from 41.2% in Q4 2025, but remains below the 62.5% level in Q4 2024. Operating margin was 19.0% in Q1 2026, reflecting solid cost control despite revenue fluctuations. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x, which is elevated but manageable given the company's cash flow generation. Free cash flow was $267 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $708 million. The current ratio of 2.07x indicates adequate liquidity, and ROE of 5.3% is modest but positive. The company's ability to generate strong free cash flow supports debt reduction and shareholder returns, though the high leverage remains a risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
47.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$708000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NXST Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, we use the P/E ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/E is 66.8x, while the forward P/E is 7.6x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. This wide gap suggests that the trailing earnings include one-time charges or cyclical weakness, and the forward multiple reflects normalized earnings power. Compared to the industry average (not provided), the stock's forward P/E of 7.6x appears attractive if earnings materialize, but the trailing multiple is elevated. Historically, Nexstar's P/E has ranged from around 5x to 50x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 66.8x is near the top of its historical range, reflecting depressed earnings, while the forward P/E of 7.6x is near the bottom, indicating the market expects a significant rebound. The P/S ratio of 1.25x is below the historical average of ~4x, suggesting the stock is cheap on a sales basis. The EV/EBITDA of 9.7x is reasonable for a broadcaster. Overall, the stock appears undervalued on forward earnings and sales, but the high trailing P/E signals caution.
PE
66.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~23x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Nexstar's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.32x is elevated, and quarterly interest expense of $120 million consumes a significant portion of operating income ($265 million in Q1 2026). While free cash flow of $708 million TTM provides coverage, a sustained advertising downturn or rising interest rates could pressure liquidity. The trailing P/E of 66.8x is inflated by depressed earnings, and any shortfall in the expected earnings rebound could lead to multiple compression. Revenue concentration in advertising (39% of Q1 2026 revenue) exposes the company to cyclical ad spending, which has shown volatility across recent quarters.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.90 suggests slightly less volatility than the market, but its 1-year relative strength of -18.6% versus the S&P 500 indicates persistent underperformance. Valuation compression is a key risk: the forward P/E of 7.6x already prices in a sharp recovery, and if the recovery disappoints, the stock could re-rate lower. Competitive threats from digital advertising (e.g., streaming, social media) are eroding traditional TV ad share, and regulatory risks around the Tegna merger could limit upside. Recent news on M&A activity in other sectors does not directly impact Nexstar, but the lack of company-specific positive news highlights the overhang from the merger uncertainty.
Worst-Case Scenario: If the Tegna merger fails, advertising revenue continues to decline, and the expected earnings recovery does not materialize, NXST could fall to its 52-week low of $154.47, representing a 15.7% decline from the current price of $183.20. In a severe recession with ad spending collapsing, the stock could test lower levels, potentially revisiting the historical max drawdown of -39.01%, which would imply a price near $111.70. An investor could lose up to 39% from the current price in this adverse scenario.