Phillips 66
PSX
$210.60
+1.83%
Phillips 66 is an independent energy refining and midstream company that operates 10 refineries with a total crude throughput capacity of 2.0 million barrels per day, along with extensive pipeline and NGL processing assets. As a major independent refiner, it holds a distinct competitive position through its integrated refining, midstream, and chemical (CPChem joint venture) operations, giving it scale and diversification within the oil & gas value chain. The current investor narrative centers on a historic refining margin boom driven by a global capacity shortage and geopolitical tensions, which has propelled earnings and the stock price sharply higher in 2026. However, debates persist around the sustainability of these windfall profits, the impact of derivative losses in Q1, and the company's long-term transition toward renewable fuels.…
PSX
Phillips 66
$210.60
Related headlines
PSX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Phillips 66's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $205.47 and implied upside of -2.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$205.47
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-2.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$138 - $240
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.1 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $204.11, implying a slight downside of -1.3% from the current price of $206.77. The distribution includes 10 Buy/Outperform ratings, 6 Hold/Neutral, and 3 Sell/Underperform, indicating a moderately bullish consensus but with limited upside expected. The target range spans from a low of $138.00 to a high of $240.00. The high target of $240 assumes continued strong refining margins and potential multiple expansion, while the low target of $138 reflects risks of margin compression or a downturn. Recent ratings actions show a mix: Mizuho upgraded from Neutral to Outperform in May 2026, while most other firms maintained their ratings, suggesting analysts are cautiously optimistic but see limited near-term upside. The wide spread between low and high targets ($102) indicates high uncertainty around the sustainability of current earnings levels.
PSX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +66.32%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's +16.47%. The current price of $206.77 sits at 95.7% of its 52-week range ($118.07–$216.08), indicating the stock is near its highs and reflecting strong bullish momentum, though it also raises caution about potential overextension. The 52-week low of $118.07 provides a clear support level, while the high of $216.08 is the immediate resistance. With a beta of 0.681, the stock is less volatile than the market, which is unusual for a refiner and may reflect its integrated business model; however, the recent price action has been highly volatile, with a 1-month change of +22.61% versus the S&P 500's +0.78%, showing extreme relative strength.
Beta
0.68
0.68x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-17.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$118-$216
Price range past year
Annual Return
+69.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PSX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +24.6% | -0.7% |
| 3m | +19.5% | +2.9% |
| 6m | +46.7% | +7.2% |
| 1y | +69.3% | +16.9% |
| ytd | +61.3% | +8.8% |
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PSX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing, with Q1 2026 revenue of $34.08 billion up 11.74% year-over-year, though it remains below the Q2 2024 peak of $38.10 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue stabilizing around $34 billion after a dip in early 2025, with the refining segment driving growth amid record crack spreads. Net income swung sharply from $207 million in Q1 2026 to $2.91 billion in Q4 2025, highlighting the volatility of refining margins; the Q1 2026 net income of $207 million was depressed by $900 million in derivative losses. Gross margin improved to 10.64% in Q1 2026 from 1.92% in Q1 2025, but remains below the 12.11% peak in Q3 2023, indicating margin expansion is underway but not yet at historical highs. The company is profitable with a trailing net margin of 3.33%, though this is compressed by the Q1 loss; operating margin of 2.66% is recovering but still below the 8.09% in Q3 2023. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79 and a current ratio of 1.30, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow was negative -$2.85 billion in Q1 2026 due to working capital swings, but trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $119 million, suggesting cash generation is strained. ROE of 15.13% is solid, but the negative free cash flow raises concerns about reliance on external financing for growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$34.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
10.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$119000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PSX Overvalued?
Since net income is positive (TTM net income of $2.91 billion), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.90x, while the forward P/E is 10.96x, implying the market expects earnings growth over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is small, suggesting modest growth expectations. Compared to the industry average (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing), the stock's trailing P/E of 11.90x is at a discount to the sector average of approximately 15x (based on industry data), representing a 21% discount. This discount may be justified by the company's volatile earnings and exposure to refining margins, which are cyclical. Historically, the trailing P/E has ranged from 1.80x (Q3 2022) to 106x (Q3 2025), and the current 11.90x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is not expensive relative to its own history. However, the P/E is highly sensitive to earnings swings, so the low multiple may reflect near-term earnings peaks rather than a structural bargain.
PE
11.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple