RHP

Ryman Hospitality Properties

$133.18

-1.16%
Oct 30, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ryman Hospitality Properties is a lodging and hospitality real estate investment trust that owns and operates upscale, meetings-focused convention center resorts — primarily the Gaylord Hotels and JW Marriott branded properties managed by Marriott — alongside a country music entertainment and media platform through Opry Entertainment Group. The company occupies a distinctive niche as arguably the premier pure-play owner of large-group convention resort assets in the U.S., with its Gaylord brand and Nashville-centric entertainment holdings giving it a competitive identity that blends REIT cash-flow characteristics with an experience-economy growth story. The current investor narrative centers on the durability of group and convention demand, the margin and pricing power of its resort cluster, and the optionality embedded in the entertainment segment, which is viewed as a potential value-unlock catalyst. With shares up sharply over the trailing year and trading near the upper end of their range, the debate has shifted from recovery to whether the company can sustain pricing power and grow per-share cash flow against a high leverage profile and a dividend that currently exceeds earnings.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy RHP Today?

Rating: Hold with a bullish tilt. The core thesis is that RHP's unique convention-resort portfolio and Opry Entertainment optionality justify a premium, but the current $125.98 price already discounts much of the analyst consensus (average target $139.50, +10.7% upside) and the forward EPS normalization to $5.875. The strong_buy consensus (mean 1.21 across 14 analysts, low target $129.00 above the current price) anchors a constructive view, but the risk/reward is not compelling enough for an outright Buy at this level.

Supporting evidence: (1) valuation — EV/EBITDA of 12.46x and price-to-cash-flow of 9.91x are moderate for a premium lodging REIT, though price-to-book of 7.80x is rich; (2) growth — forward revenue estimate of ~$3.32B with a tight $3.312B–$3.328B range signals high confidence; (3) profitability — 18.95% operating margin and 32.45% ROE (leverage-flattered) show strong property-level economics; (4) analyst upside — average target $139.50 (+10.7%) and high target $152.00 (+20.7%), with all 14 targets above the current price. The 4.88% dividend yield adds an income component, though the 117.3% payout ratio means it is not covered by earnings.

Risks and conditions: the biggest risks are a dividend cut if AFFO disappoints (117.3% payout ratio), leverage (5.72x debt-to-equity) in a higher-for-longer rate environment, and failure of forward EPS to normalize toward $5.875. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back toward the $110–$115 zone (improving upside to the $139.50 average target to ~21–27%) or if Q3/Q4 results confirm AFFO coverage of the dividend and group-demand pricing power. It would downgrade to Sell if forward EPS guidance falls below $5.00, if the dividend is cut, or if the stock breaks below the $119–$120 intermediate support shelf. Valuation verdict: fairly valued to modestly overvalued relative to its own history and peers — the 24.02x trailing PE and 7.80x price-to-book leave little margin of safety, but the 12.46x EV/EBITDA is reasonable for the asset quality.

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RHP 12-Month Price Forecast

RHP presents a high-quality asset story with unanimous analyst support and powerful 1-year relative strength, but the current $125.98 price already discounts much of the $139.50 average target and the forward EPS normalization to $5.875. The 12.46x EV/EBITDA and 9.91x price-to-cash-flow are reasonable for the asset quality, yet the 7.80x price-to-book and 117.3% payout ratio leave little margin of safety. The stock's three-month stall (-0.54%) and elevated short ratio of 5.66 suggest the easy momentum gains are behind it, and the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling. I would upgrade to bullish if Q3/Q4 results confirm AFFO dividend coverage and forward EPS guidance tracks toward $5.875, or if the stock pulls back toward $110–$115; I would downgrade to bearish if the dividend is cut, forward EPS guidance falls below $5.00, or the stock breaks below the $119–$120 support shelf.

Historical Price
Current Price $133.18
Average Target $134.25
High Target $152.00
Low Target $83.82

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ryman Hospitality Properties's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $140.43 and implied upside of +5.4% versus the current price.

Average Target

$140.43

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+5.4%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$130 - $152

Analyst target range

Coverage is robust, with 14 analysts following Ryman and a consensus recommendation of strong_buy backed by a recommendation mean of 1.21 on a scale where 1.0 is a strong buy. The average target price of $139.50 implies approximately +10.7% upside from the current price of $125.98, and notably even the lowest target of $129.00 sits above the current share price, meaning every covering analyst sees upside from here. The consensus is unambiguously bullish, and the forward EPS estimate of $5.875 — versus a trailing EPS of just $0.04 — signals that analysts expect a dramatic earnings normalization, which is the central pillar of the bullish case.

The target range spans $129.00 to $152.00, a spread of about 17.8% around the average, which is moderately wide and signals meaningful dispersion in assumptions about group-demand durability and entertainment-segment valuation. The high target of $152.00 implies roughly +20.7% upside from current levels and likely assumes multiple expansion driven by continued convention pricing power, successful execution on the entertainment platform, and possibly a sum-of-the-parts re-rating that separates the Opry assets from the lodging REIT. The low target of $129.00 still implies about +2.4% upside and likely prices in a more conservative scenario of stable but unspectacular group demand, margin pressure from labor and operating costs, and a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment that weighs on REIT valuations. The tight clustering of targets above the current price, combined with the strong_buy consensus, suggests high conviction, though the elevated short ratio of 5.66 indicates a meaningful cohort of investors betting against that consensus.

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Bulls vs Bears: RHP Investment Factors

The bull case currently has stronger evidence: unanimous analyst upside (low target $129.00 above the $125.98 price), a strong_buy consensus (mean 1.21), +27.22 percentage points of 1-year relative strength, and a forward EPS estimate of $5.875 that implies a dramatic earnings normalization. The bear case rests on a 117.3% payout ratio, 5.72x debt-to-equity leverage, a rich 7.80x price-to-book, and a three-month momentum stall (-0.54%). The single most important tension is whether the forward EPS normalization to $5.875 materializes — if it does, the 21.4x forward PE is reasonable and the dividend is likely covered by AFFO; if it does not, the 24.02x trailing PE on $0.04 EPS and the 117.3% payout ratio become untenable. Secondary tension is the durability of group/convention demand and the potential Opry Entertainment value-unlock, which could drive the high target of $152.00.

Bullish

  • Unanimous analyst upside with strong_buy consensus: All 14 covering analysts have targets above the current $125.98 price, with a low of $129.00 (+2.4%), an average of $139.50 (+10.7%), and a high of $152.00 (+20.7%). The recommendation mean of 1.21 (1.0 = strong buy) reflects near-unanimous conviction, and the tight $3.32B revenue estimate range ($3.312B–$3.328B) signals high confidence in the top-line outlook.
  • Powerful relative momentum versus the market: RHP has gained +42.75% over the past year versus the S&P 500's +15.53%, a relative strength of +27.22 percentage points, and is up +31.94% YTD against the SPY's +11.93%. The 6-month gain of +21.67% versus +7.48% for the SPY confirms the intermediate trend remains intact, with the stock at 91.6% of its 52-week range ($83.82–$137.46).
  • Forward EPS normalization implies earnings inflection: The forward EPS estimate of $5.875 versus trailing EPS of just $0.04 signals analysts expect a dramatic earnings normalization, likely reflecting REIT accounting distortions (depreciation, asset sale gains/losses) rather than operating weakness. At $125.98, the stock trades at 21.4x forward EPS, which is reasonable for a premium lodging REIT if that earnings base is achieved.
  • Cash-flow valuation is moderate for asset quality: The price-to-cash-flow ratio of 9.91x and EV/EBITDA of 12.46x are the cleanest REIT valuation anchors and suggest the stock is priced at a moderate premium to asset-heavy hospitality peers rather than at bubble levels. The 4.88% dividend yield provides an income floor, and the 32.45% ROE (though leverage-flattered) shows the capital base generates attractive returns.

Bearish

  • Dividend not covered by earnings: The payout ratio of 117.3% means the 4.88% dividend yield is being funded above earnings, which is common for REITs using AFFO but warrants monitoring for sustainability. With trailing EPS of only $0.04, the dividend depends entirely on cash-flow generation that the dataset does not fully illuminate, creating risk of a cut if AFFO disappoints.
  • High leverage amplifies downside: The debt-to-equity ratio of 5.72 is high in absolute terms, typical for a hotel REIT but a genuine risk if interest rates stay elevated or refinancing conditions tighten. The 32.45% ROE is flattered by this leveraged capital structure, and without interest expense and maturity data, coverage and refinancing risk cannot be fully assessed.
  • Valuation rich on book and forward PE: The price-to-book ratio of 7.80x is rich for a real estate company, and the forward PE of 26.41x sits above the trailing PE of 24.02x, implying the market expects earnings to compress relative to the current base. The negative PEG ratio of -1.82 is a mechanical artifact of near-zero trailing earnings and should be disregarded, but it underscores how distorted the earnings base is.
  • Momentum has stalled over three months: Despite the strong 1-year and 1-month performance (+5.04% vs. SPY +1.22%), the stock is essentially flat over three months at -0.54% and has underperformed the SPY by 3.23 percentage points on that horizon. This mid-summer consolidation from the July peak near $136 suggests the stock may be digesting gains and vulnerable to profit-taking near resistance at $137.46.

RHP Technical Analysis

Ryman shares are in a sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +42.75% that dramatically outpaces the S&P 500's +15.53% over the same period, producing a relative strength of +27.22 percentage points. At the current price of $125.98, the stock sits roughly 91.6% of the way through its 52-week range of $83.82 to $137.46, positioning it near the top of its annual band. That positioning signals strong momentum and market conviction, but it also raises the risk of overextension and profit-taking, particularly given the stock is still about 8.4% below its 52-week high of $137.46. The year-to-date gain of +31.94% versus the SPY's +11.93% reinforces that this has been a persistent leader rather than a laggard bouncing off lows.

Short-term momentum is constructive but reveals a notable divergence from the longer-term trend. The stock is up +5.04% over the past month, beating the SPY's +1.22% by 3.82 percentage points, yet it is essentially flat over three months at -0.54% and has underperformed the SPY by 3.23 percentage points on that horizon. This pattern — strong 1-year and 1-month performance bracketing a soft 3-month stretch — suggests the stock consolidated through a mid-summer pullback from its July peak near $136 and has only recently resumed its advance. The 6-month gain of +21.67% versus the SPY's +7.48% confirms the intermediate trend remains intact, and the recent move from roughly $119 in early October to $125.98 indicates buyers are reasserting control after the consolidation.

Key technical levels are well defined by the 52-week range. Resistance sits at the $137.46 high, and a breakout above that level would signal a fresh leg higher and likely draw momentum capital, while support rests near the $83.82 low, with intermediate support likely in the $119–$120 zone where the stock repeatedly found buyers in September and early October. A breakdown below that intermediate shelf would put the 52-week low back in play and suggest the uptrend has failed. With a beta of 1.227, the stock is roughly 23% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns; the maximum drawdown of -14.72% over the period illustrates that even in an uptrend, this name can deliver meaningful short-term pain.

Beta

1.23

1.23x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-14.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$84-$137

Price range past year

Annual Return

+55.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRHP ReturnS&P 500
1m+11.4%-0.9%
3m-0.4%+1.2%
6m+25.4%+4.9%
1y+55.0%+11.2%
ytd+39.5%+10.8%

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RHP Fundamental Analysis

Revenue trajectory analysis is constrained by the absence of quarterly financial statements, cash flow data, and segment breakdowns in the provided dataset, so the multi-quarter growth trend cannot be quantified directly. What is available is the consensus revenue estimate of approximately $3.32 billion for the forward period, with a tight analyst range of $3.312 billion to $3.328 billion, implying high confidence in the top-line outlook. The company's net margin of 9.45% and operating margin of 18.95% suggest a business that converts a meaningful share of revenue into operating profit, consistent with a lodging REIT where property-level EBITDA margins are typically strong but interest and depreciation absorb much of the bottom line. Without quarterly comparisons, the investment case on growth must be inferred from the market's willingness to pay a premium multiple and from the analyst community's constructive stance.

Profitability is positive but thin at the net level, with a net margin of 9.45% and a trailing EPS of just $0.04, which is anomalously low relative to the forward EPS estimate of $5.875 and likely reflects REIT accounting distortions such as depreciation and gains/losses on asset sales rather than operating weakness. The operating margin of 18.95% is the more informative profitability gauge, while the gross margin of 9.93% appears to reflect a cost-of-revenue classification specific to the hospitality segment rather than a true gross profitability measure. Return on equity of 32.45% and return on assets of 5.44% indicate the company generates attractive returns on its capital base, though the ROE figure is flattered by the leveraged capital structure. The payout ratio of 117.3% is a critical watch item: the dividend of 4.88% is currently being funded at a level above earnings, which is common for REITs using AFFO but warrants monitoring for sustainability.

Balance sheet and cash flow analysis points to a leveraged but liquid profile. The debt-to-equity ratio of 5.72 is high in absolute terms, though this is typical for a hotel REIT that funds large resort assets with mortgage and unsecured debt; the key question is coverage and refinancing risk, which cannot be assessed without interest expense and maturity data. The current ratio of 73.13 is extraordinarily high and likely reflects a data classification quirk rather than genuine liquidity, so it should not be relied upon. The price-to-cash-flow ratio of 9.91 suggests the stock trades at a reasonable multiple of operating cash flow, implying the business does generate substantial cash relative to its market capitalization, while the short ratio of 5.66 indicates a meaningful short interest that could amplify moves in either direction.

Quarterly Revenue

N/A

N/A

Revenue YoY Growth

N/A

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

N/A

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

N/A

Last 12 Months

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Valuation Analysis: Is RHP Overvalued?

Because trailing net income is positive — reflected in the trailing PE of 24.02x — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and it should be read alongside the forward PE of 26.41x. The forward multiple sitting above the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings to compress relative to the current base, which is unusual for a growth narrative and likely reflects the distortion from the near-zero trailing EPS figure rather than a genuine deterioration in earnings power. On a cash-flow basis, the price-to-cash-flow ratio of 9.91x and EV/EBITDA of 12.46x are the more meaningful REIT valuation anchors, and both suggest the stock is priced at a moderate premium to asset-heavy hospitality peers rather than at bubble levels.

Peer comparison is limited because the provided valuation dataset does not include industry average multiples, so a precise premium or discount cannot be quantified. However, the internal spread between metrics is informative: the price-to-book ratio of 7.80x is rich for a real estate company, reflecting that book value understates the market value of the Gaylord resort portfolio and the Opry entertainment assets, while the price-to-sales ratio of 2.27x and EV/sales of 4.42x are moderate for a premium hospitality operator. The negative PEG ratio of -1.82 is a mechanical artifact of the near-zero trailing earnings base and should be disregarded as a valuation signal. On balance, the 12.46x EV/EBITDA multiple is the cleanest cross-peer yardstick and sits in a reasonable range for a high-quality lodging REIT with convention-centric demand.

Historical context cannot be established because the historical ratios dataset is empty, so the stock's current multiple cannot be positioned within its own PE or EV/EBITDA band. What can be said is that the stock's +42.75% one-year gain has likely expanded its multiples meaningfully from year-ago levels, and the current 24.02x trailing PE and 12.46x EV/EBITDA represent the market pricing in continued group-demand strength and entertainment-segment growth. The 4.88% dividend yield provides a valuation floor of sorts for income-oriented REIT investors, but the 117.3% payout ratio means the yield is not fully covered by earnings and depends on AFFO and cash flow generation that the dataset does not fully illuminate.

PE

24.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

N/A

5-Year PE Range 17x~59x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial and operational risks center on leverage and dividend coverage. The debt-to-equity ratio of 5.72 is high in absolute terms, typical for a hotel REIT but a genuine risk if interest rates stay elevated or refinancing conditions tighten; without interest expense and maturity data, coverage cannot be fully assessed. The payout ratio of 117.3% means the 4.88% dividend yield is funded above earnings, and with trailing EPS of only $0.04, the dividend depends entirely on AFFO and cash-flow generation that the dataset does not fully illuminate. Revenue is concentrated in the Hospitality segment (Gaylord Hotels, JW Marriott properties), making the company sensitive to group/convention demand and labor and operating cost inflation, while the 18.95% operating margin leaves limited buffer if pricing power weakens. The anomalously high current ratio of 73.13 likely reflects a data classification quirk and should not be relied upon as a liquidity cushion.

Market and competitive risks include valuation compression and sector rotation. The price-to-book ratio of 7.80x is rich for a real estate company, and the forward PE of 26.41x sits above the trailing PE of 24.02x, implying the market expects earnings to compress relative to the current base — an unusual setup for a growth narrative. With a beta of 1.227, the stock is roughly 23% more volatile than the market, so a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment would weigh disproportionately on REIT valuations and on RHP's leveraged capital structure. The three-month relative underperformance of -3.23 percentage points versus the SPY suggests momentum has stalled, and the elevated short ratio of 5.66 indicates a meaningful cohort betting against the bullish consensus, which could amplify a selloff. Competitive threats include new convention-resort supply in Nashville and other markets, and the risk that the Opry Entertainment value-unlock fails to materialize, leaving the sum-of-the-parts discount intact.

Worst-case scenario: group/convention demand rolls over, forward EPS fails to normalize toward $5.875, and the 117.3% payout ratio forces a dividend cut, triggering a REIT de-rating. In that chain, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $83.82, which is -33.5% from the current $125.98, and the maximum drawdown of -14.72% observed over the period shows how quickly such pain can materialize. Even the analyst low target of $129.00 offers only +2.4% upside, so the downside skew is meaningful if the earnings normalization thesis breaks. A realistic adverse case is a decline to the $100–$105 zone (-17% to -21%) on a dividend cut or guidance miss, with a tail scenario to the $83.82 low (-33.5%).

FAQ

Ranked by severity: (1) Dividend sustainability — the 117.3% payout ratio means the 4.88% yield is funded above earnings, and a cut would likely trigger a sharp de-rating; (2) Leverage — the 5.72x debt-to-equity ratio makes RHP sensitive to higher-for-longer interest rates and refinancing conditions; (3) Earnings normalization failure — the forward EPS estimate of $5.875 versus trailing EPS of $0.04 is a dramatic gap, and if it does not materialize the 26.41x forward PE is unsupported; (4) Market/competitive — a beta of 1.227 amplifies drawdowns, the short ratio of 5.66 signals meaningful bearish positioning, and new convention-resort supply in Nashville could pressure pricing power. The maximum drawdown of -14.72% over the period shows how quickly these risks can materialize.

The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: bull case (30% probability, $139.50–$152.00) assumes group demand stays robust, forward EPS normalizes toward $5.875, and Opry Entertainment value-unlock drives a re-rating above the $137.46 52-week high; base case (50% probability, $129.00–$139.50) assumes stable group demand, margins near 18.95%, and a grind toward the $139.50 analyst average; bear case (20% probability, $83.82–$129.00) assumes demand softens, the 117.3% payout ratio forces a dividend cut, and the stock retests the $83.82 52-week low. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption being that forward EPS normalizes to roughly $5.875 and the dividend is maintained on an AFFO basis. The analyst consensus average target of $139.50 aligns with the base case midpoint.

RHP appears fairly valued to modestly overvalued. The trailing PE of 24.02x and forward PE of 26.41x are moderate in absolute terms, but the forward multiple sitting above the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings to compress relative to the current base, which is unusual for a growth narrative. The price-to-book ratio of 7.80x is rich for a real estate company, though book value understates the market value of the Gaylord portfolio and Opry assets. On a cash-flow basis, the 12.46x EV/EBITDA and 9.91x price-to-cash-flow are more reasonable for a premium lodging REIT. The market is paying a premium that implies continued group-demand strength and successful Opry value-unlock; if those fail to materialize, the 24.02x trailing PE on $0.04 EPS would look expensive.

From a risk/reward perspective, RHP is a reasonable but not compelling buy at $125.98. The average analyst target of $139.50 implies +10.7% upside, and even the lowest target of $129.00 sits above the current price, while the strong_buy consensus (mean 1.21 across 14 analysts) signals high conviction. However, the stock trades at 24.02x trailing PE and 7.80x price-to-book, leaving little margin of safety, and the 117.3% payout ratio means the 4.88% dividend is not covered by earnings. The biggest downside risk is a dividend cut or failure of forward EPS to normalize toward $5.875, which could take the stock toward the $83.82 52-week low (-33.5%). It is a good buy for income-oriented investors with a moderate risk tolerance who can tolerate a 1.227 beta and leverage, particularly on a pullback toward $110–$115; it is less attractive for conservative investors seeking covered dividends.

RHP is better suited for long-term holding with a minimum suggested horizon of 2–3 years, given its REIT structure, 4.88% dividend yield, and the multi-year nature of the Opry Entertainment value-unlock and group-demand cycle. The beta of 1.227 and maximum drawdown of -14.72% make it unsuitable for short-term trading unless the investor is actively managing the $119–$120 support and $137.46 resistance levels. The 117.3% payout ratio and 5.72x debt-to-equity mean earnings visibility is moderate rather than high, so a long-term holder should monitor AFFO coverage each quarter. Short-term traders could play the range between $119 and $137, but the three-month stall (-0.54%) suggests momentum is not currently favorable for trend-following entries.