SCCO

Southern Copper Corporation

$194.09

-1.27%
Jun 4, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is an integrated producer of copper and other minerals, operating mining, smelting, and refining facilities primarily in Peru and Mexico, with its product mix including copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver. The company is a major, low-cost producer and one of the world's largest publicly traded copper companies, distinguished by its large, long-life reserves and integrated operations from mine to refined metal. The current investor narrative is dominated by the structural bull case for copper driven by global electrification and AI-related infrastructure demand, juxtaposed against recent volatility from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have introduced uncertainty over near-term industrial demand and supply chain disruptions.

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SCCO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $194.09
Average Target $194.09
High Target $223.2035
Low Target $164.9765

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Southern Copper Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $252.32 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$252.32

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$155 - $252

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a focused institutional story rather than a widely covered mega-cap. The consensus sentiment appears cautious to negative, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings which include actions like 'Sell', 'Underperform', and 'Underweight' from firms like UBS, BofA Securities, and JP Morgan in early 2026. The average estimated EPS for the forward period is $6.81, with a range from $6.16 to $7.45. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the dispersion in EPS estimates (a low of $6.16 to a high of $7.45) implies a wide range of fundamental outcomes and price targets, signaling high uncertainty among analysts. The high EPS estimate of $7.45 likely assumes sustained high copper prices and operational excellence, while the low estimate of $6.16 may factor in potential cost inflation, operational disruptions, or a moderation in metal prices. The pattern of recent analyst actions, with several downgrades or reiterations of Sell/Underperform ratings in January and February 2026, suggests a valuation-conscious stance following the stock's powerful rally, with analysts potentially viewing risk/reward as unfavorable at recent highs.

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Bulls vs Bears: SCCO Investment Factors

The bull case, driven by exceptional fundamental performance (39% revenue growth, 34% net margins) and powerful secular tailwinds for copper, currently holds stronger evidence. However, the bear case presents a formidable counter-argument centered on a premium valuation (29x forward P/E) that leaves no room for error and heightened near-term volatility from geopolitical risks. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether SCCO's current valuation multiples, which price in a prolonged period of high copper prices and flawless execution, can be sustained in the face of potential cyclical downturns or demand shocks. The resolution of this valuation vs. growth sustainability question will dictate the stock's trajectory.

Bullish

  • Exceptional Revenue & Margin Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 38.99% YoY to $3.87B, driven by elevated copper prices. This growth is translating into powerful operating leverage, with gross margin expanding from 48.19% to 61.97% and net margin improving from 28.51% to 33.80% over the same period.
  • Strong Free Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns: The company generated $3.43B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, supporting a robust dividend with a 57.33% payout ratio. This prolific cash generation, coupled with a solid balance sheet (Debt/Equity of 0.67), provides financial flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.
  • Structural Copper Demand Tailwinds: SCCO is a direct beneficiary of the secular demand story for copper from global electrification and AI infrastructure, as highlighted by recent news on BHP's historic shift to copper-driven profits. Its status as a low-cost producer with a 39.27% ROE positions it to capitalize on this long-term trend.
  • Powerful Long-Term Price Momentum: The stock has gained 114.85% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the SPY's 28.21% return. This sustained uptrend reflects strong investor conviction in the copper bull thesis and the company's operational execution.

Bearish

  • Premium Valuation at Cyclical Peak: SCCO trades at a trailing P/E of 27.74x and a forward P/E of 29.10x, a significant premium to typical metals & mining sector multiples. Its Price/Sales of 8.96x and EV/EBITDA of 15.38x are also elevated, suggesting the stock is pricing in near-perfect execution and sustained high copper prices.
  • Recent Analyst Downgrades & Cautious Sentiment: Recent institutional actions include 'Sell', 'Underperform', and 'Underweight' ratings from firms like UBS, BofA, and JP Morgan in early 2026. This pattern suggests a valuation-conscious stance following the powerful rally, with analysts viewing risk/reward as unfavorable at recent highs.
  • High Volatility & Recent Sharp Correction: The stock exhibits high cyclical volatility, with a maximum drawdown of -30.22%. It declined 11.49% over the past 3 months while the SPY gained 10.28%, highlighting a significant sentiment-driven correction and underscoring its sensitivity to shifts in commodity price expectations.
  • Geopolitical & Demand Destruction Risks: Recent news highlights the complex impact of Middle East tensions, creating a risk of copper surplus from industrial demand destruction. This introduces near-term uncertainty that contrasts with the long-term structural bull case, potentially pressuring prices and investor sentiment.

SCCO Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile but sustained long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +114.85% as of the data date, significantly outperforming the SPY's +28.21% gain. Currently trading at $191.30, the price sits approximately 86% of its 52-week range ($85.61 to $221.67), indicating it is trading closer to its highs, which reflects strong momentum but also suggests potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. The stock's beta of 1.08 indicates volatility roughly in line with the broader market, though recent price swings have been pronounced. Recent momentum has been highly volatile and divergent from the powerful longer-term uptrend. Over the past month, the stock gained 14.71%, sharply outperforming the SPY's 6.31% gain, signaling a resurgence of bullish momentum. However, the 3-month performance shows a decline of 11.49%, which starkly contrasts with the SPY's 10.28% gain over the same period, highlighting a significant correction and consolidation phase that occurred between the January peak and March lows. This divergence suggests the stock experienced a sharp, sentiment-driven correction before attempting to regain its footing. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with major resistance at the 52-week high of $221.67 and support at the 52-week low of $85.61. A decisive breakout above the $221 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a sustained break below the March low near $151.20 could indicate a deeper correction is underway. The stock's maximum drawdown of -30.22% over the provided period underscores its inherent cyclical volatility, which is typical for commodity equities, and investors must account for this heightened risk in position sizing.

Beta

1.08

1.08x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-30.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$86-$222

Price range past year

Annual Return

+114.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSCCO ReturnS&P 500
1m+14.6%+4.6%
3m+6.0%+12.6%
6m+40.8%+10.4%
1y+114.8%+27.0%
ytd+33.0%+11.0%

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SCCO Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been exceptionally strong, driven by elevated copper prices. For Q4 2025, revenue was $3.87 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 38.99% from the $2.78 billion in Q4 2024. This robust growth accelerated through 2025, with sequential quarterly revenues of $3.12B, $3.05B, $3.38B, and $3.87B, indicating a strong finish to the year. The copper segment, contributing $2.90 billion in the latest period, is the primary growth driver, with molybdenum and silver providing additional revenue streams. Profitability is robust and margins are expanding significantly. The company reported net income of $1.31 billion for Q4 2025, with a net margin of 33.80%. Gross margin for the quarter was 61.97%, and operating margin was 54.54%, reflecting the high-margin nature of its operations during a period of strong commodity prices. Comparing to the year-ago quarter (Q4 2024), net margin improved from 28.51% to 33.80%, and gross margin expanded from 48.19% to 61.97%, demonstrating powerful operating leverage as revenues surge. The balance sheet is solid, with a strong liquidity position evidenced by a current ratio of 3.89 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67. The company is a prolific cash generator, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $3.43 billion and an ROE of 39.27%, indicating highly efficient use of shareholder equity. This substantial FCF, coupled with a dividend payout ratio of 57.33%, supports both shareholder returns and internal funding for growth projects without excessive reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.38%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.61%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Copper
Other
Silver
Zinc
Molybdenum

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Valuation Analysis: Is SCCO Overvalued?

Given a positive net income of $1.31 billion, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 27.74x, while the forward P/E is 29.10x based on estimated EPS of $6.81. The slight premium on the forward multiple suggests the market expects earnings growth to moderate or stabilize from recent highs, rather than accelerate further. Compared to sector averages, SCCO trades at a significant premium. Its trailing P/E of 27.74x and forward P/E of 29.10x are well above typical basic materials/metals & mining averages, which often range in the mid-teens. Its Price/Sales ratio of 8.96x and EV/EBITDA of 15.38x also suggest a premium valuation. This premium is likely justified by its status as a low-cost producer with superior margins (gross margin of 56.67%, net margin of 32.30%), high ROE of 39.27%, and direct exposure to the secular copper demand story, which commands a growth multiple atypical for a pure-play miner. Historically, SCCO's valuation is elevated. The current trailing P/E of 27.74x is above its own historical range observed in the data, which has fluctuated between approximately 12.5x and 35.6x over recent years. The current Price/Book ratio of 10.89x is also near the top of its historical range. Trading near the upper end of its own historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in optimistic long-term copper price assumptions and near-perfect execution, leaving little room for disappointment.

PE

27.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~36x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: SCCO's financial risk is primarily tied to its dependence on continued high copper prices to justify its premium valuation, not its balance sheet, which is strong with a 0.67 debt-to-equity ratio. The key risk is earnings volatility; a 20% decline in copper prices could sharply compress its 33.8% net margin and 39.27% ROE. Furthermore, while geographically diversified between Peru and Mexico, operational disruptions in either region could impact the revenue stream, which is heavily concentrated in copper (contributing $2.90B of the $3.87B Q4 revenue).

Market & Competitive Risks: The paramount market risk is valuation compression. SCCO trades at a 29.10x forward P/E, well above sector averages, making it vulnerable to a derating if growth expectations moderate or if a sector rotation away from cyclical commodities occurs. Its beta of 1.08 indicates market-correlated volatility, but recent 3-month underperformance (-11.49% vs. SPY +10.28%) shows it can decouple negatively. Competitive risks are lower given its low-cost producer status, but the threat of demand destruction from geopolitical tensions, as recent news highlights, is a tangible near-term macro overhang that could pressure metal prices.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of a sharp global economic slowdown reducing copper demand, a resolution of supply constraints increasing metal supply, and sustained high interest rates compressing growth stock multiples. This could trigger a severe derating from current premium multiples back toward historical sector averages. Quantifying the downside, the stock could realistically retreat to its 52-week low of $85.61, representing a potential loss of approximately -55% from the current price of $191.30. The recent maximum drawdown of -30.22% provides a benchmark for the volatility inherent in such a move.