NuScale
SMR
$11.24
-4.26%
NuScale Power Corporation is a developer of proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology, operating within the Renewable Utilities industry. The company is a pioneering disruptor in the nuclear energy sector, aiming to deliver scalable, carbon-free power through its innovative NuScale Power Module (NPM). The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the severe financial and execution challenges of commercializing its technology, highlighted by significant quarterly revenue misses, substantial cash burn, and the recent exit of its major strategic investor, Fluor, which has cast doubt on its near-term viability and funding runway.…
SMR
NuScale
$11.24
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SMR Today?
Rating: Sell. The core thesis is that NuScale Power (SMR) represents an exceptionally high-risk, binary speculation where the current valuation and cash burn profile far outweigh the distant and uncertain potential of its technology, making it unsuitable for all but the most risk-tolerant speculators.
Supporting evidence is overwhelmingly negative: The company's revenue is collapsing (-94.7% YoY in Q4), it is deeply unprofitable (operating margin of -40.2%), and it burns cash at an alarming rate (-$460M TTM FCF). The valuation is detached from fundamentals, with a PS ratio of 73.7x—a premium that implies miraculous future success. Analyst sentiment is cautious, with recent actions including Citigroup (Sell) and UBS (Neutral), and there is no consensus price target to suggest meaningful upside.
The thesis would only change if the company announces a transformative, fully-funded partnership or a major government contract that materially de-risks the commercialization timeline and funding. This Sell rating would downgrade to a Strong Sell if the stock breaches its 52-week low of $8.85 on high volume, signaling a breakdown. It would only be reconsidered for a Hold if the company demonstrates a clear, funded path to positive operating cash flow within 24 months. Relative to any reasonable benchmark, the stock is profoundly overvalued.
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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast
The 12-month outlook is heavily skewed to the downside. The base case (50% probability) is continued distress and volatility with a downward bias, while the bear case (35%) of a funding-driven collapse is a tangible and severe risk. The bull case (15%) requires a series of low-probability, binary positive events. The stock's fate hinges almost entirely on external capital markets, not operational execution. The stance would only upgrade to Neutral if the company announces a fully-funded plan to reach positive operating cash flow without excessive dilution. Current data overwhelmingly supports a cautious, risk-off approach.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $14.61 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$14.61
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$9 - $15
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage data is available to form a meaningful consensus. The provided data includes a count of 5 analysts and revenue estimates, but lacks critical details such as a consensus price target, recommendation distribution, or target price range. This limited coverage is typical for a small-cap, pre-commercialization company like NuScale and implies higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock is driven more by speculative sentiment and binary news on project development than by institutional analyst scrutiny. The available institutional rating actions show a pattern of neutral to cautious sentiment, with recent actions from UBS (Neutral), Citigroup (Sell), and RBC Capital (Sector Perform) in early 2026, indicating a lack of bullish conviction among covering firms.
Bulls vs Bears: SMR Investment Factors
The bear case currently holds significantly stronger evidence, grounded in catastrophic financials, an unsustainable cash burn, and an extreme valuation detached from reality. The bull case rests entirely on the speculative, long-dated potential of its unproven technology. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the race against time: Can NuScale secure the billions in capital needed to reach commercialization before its cash reserves are depleted? The resolution of this funding runway risk will determine whether the company becomes a transformative energy player or faces financial distress.
Bullish
- Zero Debt, Strong Liquidity: The balance sheet shows no debt (debt-to-equity of 0) and a robust current ratio of 4.30, providing a clean capital structure and near-term financial flexibility. This is a critical advantage for a pre-revenue company facing a long commercialization runway.
- Proprietary Technology in Growing Market: NuScale's small modular reactor (SMR) technology addresses the global demand for scalable, carbon-free baseload power, a multi-trillion-dollar market. Recent geopolitical events, like oil price spikes, highlight the strategic tailwind for next-generation nuclear power.
- Analyst Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts project a significant revenue ramp, with an average estimate of $1.42 billion for the coming year, representing a massive potential increase from the current quarterly run-rate of $1.81 million. This reflects market belief in the eventual commercialization of its technology.
- Recent Price Bounce from Extreme Lows: The stock has rebounded 16.70% over the past month from deeply distressed levels, suggesting some speculative capital is re-entering after the 70% annual decline. This could indicate a potential stabilization point, though it remains highly volatile.
Bearish
- Catastrophic Revenue Collapse: Q4 2025 revenue of $1.81 million represents a -94.72% year-over-year decline, demonstrating a complete lack of commercial traction and revenue visibility. This follows a quarter with $8.24 million, indicating extreme volatility and no predictable business model.
- Massive Cash Burn & Funding Risk: The company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate, with TTM free cash flow of -$460.12 million and Q4 2025 operating cash flow of -$203.70 million. With the exit of major strategic investor Fluor, securing future equity financing is a critical and uncertain risk.
- Extreme Valuation with No Earnings: The stock trades at an astronomical Price-to-Sales multiple of 73.70x and an EV/Sales of 132.92x, pricing in decades of future success despite current negligible revenue and deep losses. This leaves the stock vulnerable to severe multiple compression if execution falters.
- Severe Technical Downtrend & Volatility: The stock is down 70% over the past year and 82.86% from its high, trading just 33% above its 52-week low of $8.85. Its beta of 2.22 indicates it is over 120% more volatile than the market, making it a highly speculative and risky holding.
SMR Technical Analysis
The stock is entrenched in a severe, long-term downtrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of -70.02% and a 6-month decline of -26.94%. With a current price near $11.74, it is trading just 33% above its 52-week low of $8.85 and a staggering 80% below its 52-week high of $57.42, positioning it deep in distressed territory where it represents a high-risk speculation rather than a traditional value opportunity. Recent momentum shows a stark divergence, with a 1-month gain of 16.70% sharply contrasting the longer-term collapse; however, this appears to be a volatile, low-conviction bounce within a bear market, as the 3-month gain is a muted 2.62% and the stock remains 95 basis points weaker than the S&P 500 over the past year. Key technical support is the 52-week low of $8.85, a breach of which would signal a complete loss of confidence and potentially new lows, while overhead resistance is formidable near the 52-week high of $57.42. The stock's extreme volatility is quantified by a beta of 2.22, meaning it is over 120% more volatile than the broader market, which necessitates outsized risk tolerance and careful position sizing for any investor.
Beta
2.22
2.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-82.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$9-$57
Price range past year
Annual Return
-69.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SMR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.4% | -0.2% |
| 3m | -1.7% | +14.0% |
| 6m | -30.1% | +7.8% |
| 1y | -69.8% | +25.3% |
| ytd | -31.1% | +9.2% |
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SMR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is minimal, volatile, and recently collapsed, with Q4 2025 revenue of only $1.81 million representing a catastrophic year-over-year decline of -94.72%; this follows a quarter (Q3 2025) with $8.24 million in revenue, indicating no consistent commercial traction. The company is deeply unprofitable, posting a Q4 2025 net income of -$50.83 million and an operating margin of -40.22%; while the gross margin was negative at -3.37% for that quarter, it has fluctuated wildly from -3.37% to 52.35% over the past year, reflecting the immaturity and inconsistency of its cost structure as a pre-revenue developer. The balance sheet, while currently showing no debt (debt-to-equity of 0) and a strong current ratio of 4.30, is being rapidly depleted by massive cash burn, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow deeply negative at -$460.12 million and operating cash flow for Q4 2025 alone at -$203.70 million, indicating a critical dependence on external equity financing to sustain operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$1808000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.94%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.03%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-460117999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?
Given the consistent and deep net losses, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is an astronomically high 73.70x, reflecting a market capitalization of $5.17 billion against negligible revenue. For context, the Enterprise Value-to-Sales multiple is even more extreme at 132.92x. There is no meaningful peer comparison data provided in the valuation set, but such multiples are indicative of a market valuing the company entirely on speculative future potential rather than current fundamentals. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has been volatile but persistently elevated, ranging from 48.85x at the end of 2024 to 1,283.23x at the end of 2025; the current 73.70x sits well below its recent peak but remains extraordinarily high, suggesting that while the stock has crashed, the valuation still embeds significant expectations for future commercialization success that may not materialize.
PE
-6.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -75x~-3x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-6.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and immediate. The company has no meaningful revenue stream, with Q4 sales collapsing 94.7% YoY to just $1.8 million, and is burning cash at a rate of over $200 million per quarter. This creates a critical dependency on dilutive equity raises, exacerbated by the recent exit of its anchor investor, Fluor. Profitability is non-existent, with a Q4 operating margin of -40.22% and a gross margin that swung to -3.37%, reflecting an immature and unstable cost structure. The balance sheet's apparent strength (no debt, high current ratio) is a fleeting advantage that will be rapidly consumed by ongoing operations.
Market & Competitive Risks center on its speculative valuation and competitive landscape. Trading at a PS ratio of 73.7x, the stock is priced for flawless, distant execution, leaving it hyper-sensitive to any project delays or negative news, which could trigger a violent derating. The company faces intense competition from other SMR developers (like Rolls-Royce, which recently secured UK government funding) and alternative clean energy technologies. Its beta of 2.22 confirms extreme sensitivity to broader market sentiment; a risk-off environment could precipitate a liquidity crisis as investors flee pre-profit, cash-burning stories.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to secure new funding within the next 12-18 months, leading to a liquidity crunch that forces severe cost-cutting, project delays, or even bankruptcy proceedings. In this scenario, the stock would likely re-test and breach its 52-week low of $8.85, representing a -25% decline from the current ~$11.74 price. A more severe bear case, factoring in a complete loss of confidence and equity wipe-out risk, could see the stock fall 50-70% from current levels to the $4-$6 range, mirroring the fate of other failed pre-commercialization ventures.
FAQ
The key risks, in order of severity, are: 1) Liquidity & Funding Risk: The company burns $460M annually and must raise equity in a hostile market, risking severe dilution or insolvency. 2) Execution & Commercialization Risk: The technology is unproven at scale, and any delays or cost overruns could destroy value. 3) Valuation Risk: The PS ratio of 73.7x leaves no room for error; any disappointment will cause multiple compression and large price declines. 4) Competitive & Regulatory Risk: Intense competition from other SMR developers and a complex, lengthy nuclear regulatory process threaten its first-mover advantage. The recent exit of strategic investor Fluor exacerbates all these risks.
The 12-month forecast is highly uncertain but skewed negatively. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $9 and $13, as it struggles with funding and lacks positive catalysts. The bear case (35% probability) projects a drop to $5-$9 if a liquidity crisis triggers a loss of confidence. The bull case (15% probability) envisions a rally to $25-$35 on the back of a major partnership or contract. The most likely scenario is the base case of continued volatility and distress, as the company's fundamental challenges—massive cash burn and no revenue—are unlikely to be resolved within the year.
SMR is profoundly overvalued based on any conventional fundamental metric. With a Price-to-Sales ratio of 73.7x and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales of 132.9x, the market is valuing the company as if its technology will achieve massive, flawless commercial success years from now. This valuation ignores the current reality of collapsing revenue, deep losses, and a critical funding shortage. Compared to its own history, the multiple has compressed from peaks above 1,200x but remains extreme. The valuation implies the market expects billions in future revenue that may never materialize, leaving the stock vulnerable to a violent correction.
No, SMR is not a good stock to buy for the vast majority of investors. It is an exceptionally high-risk speculation, not an investment. The company has negligible revenue that collapsed 94.7% last quarter, burns over $200 million in cash per quarter, and trades at a stratospheric Price-to-Sales multiple of 73.7x. The downside risk to its 52-week low of $8.85 (-25%) or lower is significant and probable. It could only be considered a 'good buy' for a venture capitalist or speculator allocating a very small portion of capital to a binary, long-shot technology bet, with full acceptance of potential total loss.
SMR is unsuitable for short-term trading due to its extreme volatility (beta 2.22) and lack of catalysts, and it is a highly problematic long-term 'investment' due to existential funding risk. If an investor is compelled to hold it, the horizon must be very long-term (7-10 years) to potentially see through the commercialization cycle, accepting immense volatility and dilution along the way. It pays no dividend and offers no earnings visibility, providing no income or stability. For most, it is not suitable for any horizon. A speculative position would require a minimum 5-year hold to even assess commercial viability, with the understanding that the capital could be entirely lost.