SMR

NuScale

$8.35

-7.63%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
NuScale Power Corporation is pioneering the development of small modular reactor (SMR) technology, aiming to deliver safe, scalable, and cost-effective carbon-free nuclear power through its proprietary NuScale Power Module (NPM). As a first-mover in the SMR space, the company holds a unique position in the renewable utilities sector, though it remains pre-revenue and unprofitable. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to commercialize its technology amid significant regulatory hurdles, project delays, and a 75% stock decline over the past year, with recent news highlighting failed projects and waning AI enthusiasm as key risks.

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SMR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $8.35
Average Target $8.35
High Target $9.60
Low Target $7.10

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NuScale's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $10.86 and implied upside of +30.1% versus the current price.

Average Target

$10.86

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.1%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$7 - $11

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

NuScale is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning neutral to bearish. The distribution includes 2 Buy/Overweight ratings (Canaccord Genuity, Cantor Fitzgerald), 2 Neutral/Equal Weight (UBS, Goldman Sachs, Barclays), and 1 Sell (Citigroup). The average analyst target price is not provided, but based on the data, the implied upside/downside cannot be calculated precisely. However, the low target of $0.0148 (EPS) and high target of $0.0823 (EPS) suggest a wide range of expectations. The consensus EPS estimate is -$0.042, indicating continued losses. The target range is wide, reflecting high uncertainty about the company's future. The high target likely assumes successful commercialization and multiple expansion, while the low target prices in continued cash burn and potential dilution. Recent ratings actions show no upgrades or downgrades in the last three months, with firms maintaining their stances. The wide spread between high and low targets signals low conviction among analysts, and the limited coverage (5 analysts) is typical for a small-cap, pre-revenue company, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery.

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SMR Technical Analysis

NuScale Power is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 74.9% over the past year. The current price of $9.04 sits at just 15.7% of its 52-week range (low $8.55, high $57.42), indicating the stock is near its lows and deeply oversold. This positioning suggests a potential value opportunity if fundamentals improve, but also reflects a falling knife scenario with significant downside risk. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY is -95.5%, confirming extreme underperformance. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month price change of -2.7% and a 3-month change of -1.8%, indicating a deceleration in the rate of decline compared to the 6-month change of -55.9%. This divergence could signal a potential bottoming process or a temporary pause before further downside. The beta of 2.252 implies the stock is 125% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $8.55; a breakdown below this level would signal further weakness and potentially accelerate selling. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $57.42, a breakout above which would indicate a major trend reversal, though unlikely given current fundamentals.

Beta

2.25

2.25x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-84.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$8-$57

Price range past year

Annual Return

-77.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSMR ReturnS&P 500
1m-15.6%+1.0%
3m-18.5%+7.9%
6m-57.9%+8.5%
1y-77.7%+20.1%
ytd-48.8%+9.9%

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SMR Fundamental Analysis

NuScale's revenue trajectory is highly erratic and declining, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.808 million representing a 94.7% year-over-year decline from $34.224 million in Q4 2024. The company has no recurring revenue streams, and its revenue is tied to sporadic project milestones. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue falling from $13.375 million in Q1 2025 to $1.808 million in Q4 2025, indicating a decelerating and unsustainable growth profile. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of $50.829 million in Q4 2025 and a gross margin of -3.4% (negative gross profit of $60,999). Operating margin worsened to -40.2% in Q4 2025 from -2.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting escalating costs relative to revenue. The net margin of -28.1% shows that losses are consuming a significant portion of revenue, and there is no clear path to profitability in the near term. NuScale has zero debt (debt-to-equity ratio of 0) and a current ratio of 4.3, indicating strong liquidity. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$204.1 million in Q4 2025, and the company relies heavily on equity financing (common stock issued of $737.9 million in Q4 2025) to fund operations. ROE is -30.4%, reflecting poor returns on shareholder equity. The company's cash burn rate is high, and without sustained capital markets access, it faces funding risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$1808000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-94.72%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-3.37%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-460117999.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other

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Valuation Analysis: Is SMR Overvalued?

Since NuScale has negative net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 73.7x, while the forward PS ratio is not directly available but implied by analyst revenue estimates of $1.398 billion (average) suggests a forward PS of approximately 3.7x (market cap $5.166B / $1.398B). The wide gap between trailing and forward PS reflects the market's expectation of massive revenue growth, which is highly speculative given current revenue of just $1.8 million. Compared to the renewable utilities industry average PS ratio (data not provided), NuScale's trailing PS of 73.7x is astronomically high, indicating a significant premium that is unjustified by its current financial performance. The forward PS of ~3.7x is more in line with industry norms, but achieving the revenue estimates requires a monumental ramp in commercial operations. Historically, NuScale's PS ratio has ranged from 48.9x (Q4 2024) to 1283.2x (Q4 2025), and the current 73.7x is near the lower end of its historical band. This suggests that the market has already priced in significant pessimism, but the valuation remains elevated relative to fundamentals.

PE

-6.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -75x~-3x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-6.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple