WM

Waste Management, Inc

$220.52

-1.77%
May 6, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating a vast network of landfills, transfer stations, and collection services for residential, commercial, industrial, and medical customers. The company is a dominant market leader with a vertically integrated model, distinct competitive advantages from its scale, and a growing energy business derived from landfill gas. The current investor narrative centers on its resilience as a defensive industrial stock with consistent cash generation, though recent news highlights debates around capital allocation, free cash flow pressures from heavy capital expenditures, and whether recent price dips represent a buying opportunity for this dividend-growing leader.

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WM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $220.52
Average Target $220.52
High Target $253.59799999999998
Low Target $187.442

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Waste Management, Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $286.68 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$286.68

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$176 - $287

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

WM is covered by 15 analysts, indicating substantial institutional interest and research coverage for this large-cap industrial. The consensus recommendation is bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Wells Fargo (Overweight), Oppenheimer (Outperform), and Citigroup (Buy), with no sell ratings in the recent data. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the strong buy-side bias and recent reaffirmations suggest analysts see fundamental strength and resilience. The target price range and specific upside/downside cannot be calculated due to missing average target price data in the provided inputs. However, the recent news snippet titled 'Time to Buy the Dip on Waste Management Stock?' aligns with the generally positive analyst sentiment, framing recent weakness as a potential entry point. The wide dispersion of recent analyst actions (including a downgrade from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform by Scotiabank on 2026-01-21) signals some debate, likely centered on valuation and capital allocation trade-offs, such as the free cash flow pressure from acquisitions and capex noted in the news.

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Bulls vs Bears: WM Investment Factors

The bull case for WM is anchored in its exceptional profitability (27.11% ROE), defensive cash flows, and low volatility, making it a classic quality compounder. The bear case centers on its premium valuation (32.67x trailing P/E) and high financial leverage (D/E of 2.29), which leave little room for error. Currently, the bearish arguments on valuation hold stronger evidence, as the stock trades near the top of its historical P/E range while growth remains in the mid-single digits. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether WM's premium valuation—justified by its quality and defensiveness—can be sustained if interest rates remain elevated or if its robust free cash flow comes under pressure from increased capital intensity.

Bullish

  • Exceptional ROE and Profitability: WM's return on equity (ROE) of 27.11% is exceptionally high, driven by financial leverage and strong net margins of 11.75% in Q4 2025. This demonstrates superior capital efficiency and pricing power in its mature industry.
  • Robust Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $2.816 billion in TTM free cash flow and $1.698 billion in Q4 2025 operating cash flow. This provides ample internal funding for its growing dividend (payout ratio 49.3%), capital expenditures, and debt service.
  • Defensive Low-Beta Profile: With a beta of 0.547, WM is roughly 45% less volatile than the S&P 500. This was demonstrated as the stock fell only 0.97% over the past month while the SPY dropped 9.98%, offering stability in weak markets.
  • Strong Analyst Consensus: Coverage by 15 analysts shows substantial institutional interest, with a consensus bullish tilt evidenced by recent Overweight and Outperform ratings from major firms. This supports the narrative of a resilient, high-quality industrial.

Bearish

  • Premium Valuation Multiples: WM trades at a trailing P/E of 32.67x and a forward P/E of 24.74x, which are elevated for a low-growth industrial. The EV/EBITDA of 15.44x and P/S of 3.51x also suggest the market is pricing in perfection.
  • High Financial Leverage: A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29 indicates significant financial leverage, which amplifies ROE but also increases risk in a rising interest rate environment. The current ratio of 0.89 points to tight short-term liquidity.
  • Free Cash Flow Pressure from Capex: Recent news highlights industry peers facing free cash flow headwinds from heavy capital expenditures and acquisitions. WM's own robust FCF could face similar pressure, potentially impacting dividend growth and capital allocation flexibility.
  • Technical Consolidation Near Highs: Trading at $228.77, the stock is at 92% of its 52-week high ($248.13) and has shown recent deceleration, down 0.97% over the past month. This suggests potential overextension and a lack of near-term catalysts for a breakout.

WM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past six months, evidenced by a 14.52% price gain, but has recently entered a period of consolidation and minor pullback from its highs. Currently trading at $228.77, the price sits at approximately 92% of its 52-week high of $248.13, indicating the stock is near the upper end of its annual range, which reflects strong momentum but also suggests potential for overextension relative to recent support levels. The 1-year price change of -1.98% contrasts sharply with the positive 6-month performance, highlighting a volatile year where recent strength has only partially recovered from earlier declines. Recent short-term momentum shows signs of deceleration, with the stock down 0.97% over the past month and up 2.94% over the past three months, a pace that lags the robust 6-month performance. This divergence from the longer-term uptrend, particularly the negative 1-month return against a positive 3-month return, signals a potential consolidation phase or temporary pullback as the stock digests its prior gains. The stock's beta of 0.547 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is down 9.98% over the past month, demonstrating its defensive characteristics during recent market weakness. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $194.11, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $248.13. A decisive breakout above $248.13 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and could target new highs, whereas a breakdown below the recent consolidation range around $224 (evident in April 2026 trading) would suggest a deeper correction toward the $200 support zone. The stock's low beta of 0.547 implies it is roughly 45% less volatile than the SPY, which is a critical consideration for risk-averse investors seeking stable equity exposure, though it may also limit upside participation during strong market rallies.

Beta

0.49

0.49x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-18.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$194-$248

Price range past year

Annual Return

-5.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodWM ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.7%+11.4%
3m-2.7%+8.3%
6m+9.2%+9.4%
1y-5.8%+31.3%
ytd+1.0%+7.6%

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WM Fundamental Analysis

WM's revenue trajectory shows steady, mid-single-digit growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $6.313 billion representing a 7.13% year-over-year increase. Segment data reveals a diversified base, with the largest contributors being Landfill ($2.476 billion), Commercial ($2.323 billion), and Industrial ($1.65 billion) services, indicating the core collection and disposal operations are driving top-line expansion. The revenue growth, while positive, has moderated from higher rates seen in prior quarters (e.g., Q3 2025 revenue was $6.443 billion), suggesting a stable but not accelerating growth profile typical for this mature industry. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $742 million and a net margin of 11.75%. Gross margin for the quarter was 29.3%, while the operating margin stood at 18.23%, reflecting the company's ability to maintain healthy pricing power and cost control. Comparing sequential quarters, the Q4 2025 net margin of 11.75% improved from 9.36% in Q3 2025, indicating effective management of operating expenses and potential benefits from the stable revenue base, supporting the case for consistent earnings generation. WM's balance sheet is leveraged but supported by strong cash flow, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29 and a current ratio of 0.89, indicating higher financial leverage but manageable short-term liquidity. The company generated robust free cash flow of $2.816 billion on a TTM basis and an operating cash flow of $1.698 billion in Q4 2025 alone, providing ample internal funding for dividends, capital expenditures, and debt service. The return on equity (ROE) of 27.11% is exceptionally high, driven by the significant leverage, which amplifies returns but also increases financial risk in a rising interest rate environment.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.07%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.29%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Commercial
Healthcare Solutions
Industrial
Landfill
Other Collection
Recycling Processing and Sales
Residential
Transfer

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Valuation Analysis: Is WM Overvalued?

Given WM's positive net income of $742 million in Q4 2025, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 32.67x and a forward P/E of 24.74x, based on estimated EPS. The significant gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects earnings growth, with the forward P/E discounting approximately 24% lower earnings multiple, reflecting anticipated profit expansion or a normalization from potentially elevated recent earnings. Compared to sector averages (data not available in the provided dataset for a direct industry comparison), WM's valuation appears elevated on an absolute basis, with a Price/Sales ratio of 3.51 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.44. Without explicit industry comps, the high ROE of 27.11% and stable margins could justify a premium, but the stock's premium must be assessed against its defensive, low-growth profile typical of waste management utilities. The forward P/E of 24.74x suggests the market prices in steady growth and reliable cash flows. Historically, WM's current trailing P/E of 32.67x is above its own recent historical range observed in the data, which has fluctuated between the mid-20s and low-30s over the past several quarters (e.g., 29.84x at end of Q4 2025, 36.90x in Q3 2025). Trading near the higher end of its own historical band suggests the market is currently pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained profitability and perhaps a 'flight to quality' into defensive names, leaving less room for multiple expansion and increasing sensitivity to any earnings disappointment.

PE

32.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 23x~42x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

15.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: WM's primary financial risk stems from its elevated leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29. While strong cash flow ($2.8B TTM FCF) supports debt service, a sustained period of higher interest rates could pressure net income, which saw a sequential improvement to $742M in Q4 2025. Operational risks include potential margin compression; although the Q4 net margin expanded to 11.75%, the company must continuously manage costs in a labor- and fuel-intensive business to protect its 18.23% operating margin. Revenue concentration is mitigated by diversification across landfill, commercial, and industrial segments.

Market & Competitive Risks: The paramount market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a forward P/E of 24.74x and an EV/EBITDA of 15.44x, WM commands a significant premium that could contract if investor sentiment shifts away from defensive, bond-proxy stocks towards cyclicals. Its low beta of 0.547, while a defensive strength, may limit upside participation in strong bull markets. Competitive risks are moderate given its scale and vertical integration, but industry news highlights peers grappling with FCF pressures from heavy capex and M&A, a dynamic that could force WM to increase spending to maintain its competitive edge, thereby squeezing returns.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of an earnings miss, a rise in the cost of debt due to its high leverage, and a sector-wide de-rating of defensive industrials. This could trigger a reversion to its 52-week low of $194.11, representing a potential downside of approximately -15% from the current price of $228.77. A more severe but plausible drawdown could see the stock test the $180-$190 range, aligning with a historical max drawdown of -18.72%, which would equate to a loss of -17% to -21%. The chain of events would likely start with a guidance cut on FCF or margins, followed by analyst downgrades and outflows from defensive equity funds.