WSM

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

$192.39

-2.48%
Apr 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer operating in the home furnishings and housewares sector, with a portfolio of brands including its namesake Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids, and Rejuvenation. The company has established itself as a premium omnichannel player, leveraging a significant direct-to-consumer presence alongside its physical stores to capture a share of the large domestic and international home goods market. The current investor narrative centers on the company's resilience and operational discipline, as recent news highlights a significant dividend increase, signaling management's confidence in its cash flow generation despite a challenging macroeconomic environment for consumer discretionary spending. The debate likely revolves around its ability to maintain elevated margins and navigate potential consumer softness while expanding into B2B and franchise opportunities.

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WSM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $192.39
Average Target $192.39
High Target $221.24849999999998
Low Target $163.5315

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $250.11 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$250.11

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$154 - $250

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage for Williams-Sonoma is limited, with data indicating only 7 analysts providing estimates. The provided data does not include a consensus recommendation, average target price, or a Buy/Hold/Sell distribution. Therefore, insufficient analyst coverage data is available to calculate implied upside or characterize consensus sentiment. Limited coverage can be typical for companies of its market cap ($26B) but may also indicate a niche following, potentially leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to more widely covered stocks. Institutional ratings from recent months show a pattern of reiterations rather than changes. Firms including Telsey Advisory Group, Baird, RBC Capital, and TD Cowen have reiterated Outperform or Buy ratings in March 2026, while Barclays, UBS, and Citigroup have reiterated Equal Weight or Neutral ratings. The absence of recent downgrades amidst the stock's pullback suggests analysts are maintaining their views, possibly seeing the weakness as a buying opportunity. However, without specific price targets, the range of analyst expectations and the assumptions behind high and low targets cannot be determined from the provided dataset.

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WSM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 42.73% price increase, but is currently experiencing a significant pullback from its recent highs. Trading at a price of $198.69, the stock sits approximately 71% of the way up from its 52-week low of $134.44 toward its high of $222.00, indicating it has retreated meaningfully from peak levels and is now in a consolidation phase. Recent momentum has turned negative, with the stock down 6.06% over the past three months, which starkly contrasts with the strong one-year performance and suggests a potential trend reversal or correction is underway. This divergence is further highlighted by the stock's 1-month performance of +7.93%, which, while positive, has not been sufficient to reverse the deeper 3-month decline, indicating volatile and conflicting short-term signals. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $134.44, while immediate overhead resistance is at the 52-week high of $222.00. A decisive breakout above the $222 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, whereas a breakdown below the recent trading range could see the stock test lower support levels. The stock exhibits high volatility, with a beta of 1.578, meaning it is approximately 58% more volatile than the broader market (SPY), which investors must account for in position sizing and risk management given the current turbulent price action. The stock's recent price action shows it closed at $198.69 on April 17, following a 3.75% single-day gain from the previous close of $191.50. This recent bounce occurred within a broader downtrend from the February high near $220, as seen in the price data where the stock peaked at $220.67 on February 6 before declining to a low of $175.29 on March 27. The 1-month relative strength of 0.565 indicates the stock has slightly outperformed the SPY over that period, but its 3-month relative strength of -8.73 shows significant underperformance, confirming the loss of momentum.

Beta

1.58

1.58x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-20.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$145-$222

Price range past year

Annual Return

+31.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodWSM ReturnS&P 500
1m+6.2%+8.5%
3m-5.9%+2.8%
6m+1.7%+4.6%
1y+31.9%+32.3%
ytd+2.4%+3.9%

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WSM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has decelerated and turned negative in the most recent quarter, with Q4 revenue of $2.36 billion representing a year-over-year decline of 4.27%. This follows a multi-quarter trend of softening growth, as revenue in the prior-year Q4 was $2.46 billion, indicating top-line pressure. Segment data shows the Pottery Barn segment is the largest contributor at $1.58 billion, followed by West Elm at $954 million, Williams Sonoma at $856 million, Pottery Barn Kids and Teen at $622 million, and other segments at $229 million, though the growth dynamics of each are not specified in the provided data. The revenue decline suggests the company is facing a challenging consumer environment, which is a critical headwind for the investment case. The company remains highly profitable, with Q4 net income of $368 million and a robust net margin of 15.61%. Gross margin for the quarter was strong at 46.87%, and the operating margin was 20.27%, demonstrating the company's premium positioning and cost discipline. Profitability metrics have shown some fluctuation but remain at healthy levels; for instance, the trailing twelve-month net margin is reported as 13.94% in the valuation data. The company's return on equity is exceptionally high at 52.26%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital, though this is partly amplified by share buybacks reducing the equity base. The balance sheet is solid, with a current ratio of 1.39 indicating sufficient short-term liquidity, and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70. Most importantly, the company is a strong cash flow generator, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $1.06 billion. This substantial free cash flow, against a market cap of approximately $25.99 billion, implies a high FCF yield, providing ample capacity for continued shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, as evidenced by the recent dividend increase mentioned in the news. The company's financial health is strong, with low reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.4B

2026-02

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.04%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.46%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is WSM Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 23.88x, while the forward P/E is lower at 19.59x. The gap between the trailing and forward multiples implies the market expects earnings growth, as analysts project forward EPS of $11.25, which would represent an improvement from the most recent quarterly diluted EPS of $3.04. Compared to industry averages, specific sector multiples are not provided in the data, so a peer comparison cannot be quantified. However, a trailing P/E of 23.88x for a specialty retailer suggests the market is pricing in a premium for Williams-Sonoma's superior profitability and brand strength, as its net margin of 13.94% and ROE of 52.26% are likely well above typical retail averages. The premium is likely justified by its consistent high-margin performance and strong cash generation, but it also leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations are not met. Historically, the stock's own valuation provides critical context. The current trailing P/E of 23.88x is above the historical range observed in the provided data, which shows P/E ratios fluctuating between approximately 6.3x and 24.7x over the past several years. For instance, in Q4 2025 (Jan 2025), the historical P/E was 16.91x, and in Q4 2023 (Jan 2023), it was as low as 6.31x. Trading near the upper end of its historical P/E band suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained profitability and growth, leaving limited room for error and increasing downside risk if fundamentals deteriorate.

PE

23.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 6x~25x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure