ALHC

Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock

$20.60

+4.15%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. is a technology-enabled Medicare Advantage insurance company that provides consumer-centric healthcare plans and services to seniors. The company operates as a niche disruptor in the managed care industry by leveraging its proprietary technology platform and clinical model to deliver a differentiated member experience and improve health outcomes. The current investor narrative is heavily influenced by regulatory tailwinds, specifically the recent larger-than-expected 2027 Medicare Advantage payment increase from CMS, which has boosted sector-wide sentiment and revenue visibility for growth-oriented players like Alignment. Additionally, the company's upcoming inclusion in the S&P SmallCap 600 index is a key milestone expected to enhance its institutional investor profile and trading liquidity.

People also watch

UnitedHealth Group

UnitedHealth Group

UNH

Analysis
CVS Health

CVS Health

CVS

Analysis
Elevance Health, Inc.

Elevance Health, Inc.

ELV

Analysis
The Cigna Group

The Cigna Group

CI

Analysis
Humana

Humana

HUM

Analysis

ALHC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $20.6
Average Target $20.6
High Target $23.69
Low Target $17.51

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Alignment Healthcare, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.78 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$26.78

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$16 - $27

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a smaller, recently public company and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, leans bullish, with firms like JP Morgan, TD Cowen, and Piper Sandler maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Buy' ratings, while UBS and Barclays are at 'Neutral' or 'Equal Weight'. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $13.69 billion, with a range from $13.43 billion to $14.10 billion, indicating a relatively tight spread and moderate growth expectations. The average EPS estimate is $1.60, with a low of $1.56 and a high of $1.66, implying analysts expect a return to profitability. The narrow range between the low and high EPS estimates suggests a degree of consensus on the company's near-term earnings potential, though the limited number of analysts means this conviction should be viewed cautiously.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

ALHC Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile downtrend over the observed 180-day period, with the current price of $19.75 representing a 30.97% gain over the past year but a sharp decline from recent highs. The price sits at approximately 50% of its 52-week range ($11.625 to $23.87), indicating a neutral midpoint positioning that reflects a balance between recent weakness and the strong annual performance. The stock has experienced a maximum drawdown of -44.14% during this period, highlighting significant volatility and downside risk. Recent momentum shows a sharp divergence, with a strong 1-month gain of 8.10% but a more modest 3-month gain of 16.24%, suggesting a recent rebound attempt after a severe sell-off. This short-term strength contrasts with the negative 6-month price change of 2.01%, signaling a potential trend reversal or a volatile consolidation phase. The stock's beta of 1.149 indicates it is approximately 15% more volatile than the broader market, which is relevant for risk-adjusted positioning. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $23.87, which now acts as major resistance, and the 52-week low of $11.625, which serves as critical support. A sustained breakout above the $23.87 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the $11.625 support would indicate a failure of the recent recovery and potential for new lows.

Beta

1.15

1.15x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-44.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$12-$24

Price range past year

Annual Return

+42.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodALHC ReturnS&P 500
1m+31.0%+1.5%
3m+13.2%+13.4%
6m+0.9%+10.9%
1y+42.1%+24.5%
ytd+1.9%+10.0%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

ALHC Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust but shows signs of sequential deceleration; Q4 2025 revenue of $1.013 billion grew 44.43% year-over-year, yet this represents a slight sequential decline from Q3 2025's $993.7 million. The multi-quarter trend reveals volatility, with revenue peaking in Q2 2025 at $1.015 billion before the recent dip, suggesting growth may be entering a more mature phase after a period of rapid expansion. The company's profitability remains inconsistent and challenged; while it posted a net loss of $11.0 million in Q4 2025, it had achieved profitability in the two preceding quarters with net income of $3.7 million in Q3 and $15.7 million in Q2. The gross margin of 10.47% in Q4 is notably low for a managed care company, compressing from 12.65% in Q3, indicating potential pricing pressure or higher medical costs. The operating margin was a thin 0.37% for the trailing period, underscoring the difficulty in translating top-line growth to the bottom line. The balance sheet shows moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.89, but liquidity appears adequate with a current ratio of 1.74. Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is a positive $123.7 million, providing internal funding capacity. However, the return on equity is negative at -0.40%, reflecting the company's struggle to generate shareholder returns from its equity base amidst its fluctuating profitability.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.44%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.10%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$123672000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Health Care Capitation
Health Care, Premium

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is ALHC Overvalued?

Given the company's negative trailing net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 0.99, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is 0.89, suggesting the market expects modest sales growth or potential margin improvement. The gap between the trailing and forward multiples is narrow, indicating tempered growth expectations. Compared to typical managed care peers, a PS ratio below 1.0 represents a significant discount, as many established insurers trade at higher sales multiples due to stable profitability. This discount likely reflects Alignment's smaller scale, recent net losses, and the higher execution risk associated with its growth strategy. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has been volatile, ranging from a low near 1.48 in early 2024 to a high above 3.86 in late 2025. The current PS of 0.99 is near the lower end of this historical range, suggesting the stock is priced for pessimism relative to its own history. This could represent a value opportunity if the company can stabilize profitability, or it may indicate the market is pricing in fundamental deterioration following its recent quarterly loss.

PE

-5401.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -99x~233x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

81.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple